Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[nate33]

Muhammed will probably pan out to be a decent bench scorer, but that's hardly what I want with the #8 overall pick in the draft.

As opposed to Burke being a decent bench guard with the 9th overall?

I kid. Burke is miles better than Shabazz and I support the 3rd guard draft strategy (as long as Porter is off the board).

Yes. The difference with Burke is that he would be a legit starting-caliber player who would come off our bench to play both guard positions. I question whether Shabazz is a starting caliber player, period.

[mhd]

I just don't think gap between Burke and Mccollum is as vast as people think it is. I really like Mccollum as a value pick in the 10-14 range.

[nuposse04]

Nate, shouldn't we be comparing Young's 2nd year to Muhammad's first year, since they were both 20 at that time.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ung-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... mad-1.html

I think Muhammad has the tools to be the shooter young has, but they pretty much lack in other areas. But next to Wall, do we need a potential SF that needs to be an elite playmaker as well? It isn't a bad luxury to have, but I don't think its crippling that he hasn't developed a good playmaking game yet.

What's potentially crippling are the character issues? On top of that, the only position we are solid at is SF. We're far better off taking a combo guard, center or PF. Unless is someone like Porter, I'd take a big with upside like Len over Shabaaz every time.

I think people are overstating his character flaws. He plays the game with an edge, and outside of that one selfish moment in that end game moment he hasn't done anything to make me really worry. If its his family that is a problem, I think he has the competency to realize to leave burdens behind himself. If Noel, Porter, Bennett, Len, Gobert and McLemore are all gone then i would probably go Muhmammad. Every other player left either has an equal amount of basketball skills concern or physical concerns.

I actually see more Webster in Muhammad then Young. Athletic talent who can catch and shoot with the best of em, except he has the potential to add more facets tho his game.

[The Consiglieri]

Muhammed will probably pan out to be a decent bench scorer, but that's hardly what I want with the #8 overall pick in the draft.

As opposed to Burke being a decent bench guard with the 9th overall?

I kid. Burke is miles better than Shabazz and I support the 3rd guard draft strategy (as long as Porter is off the board). However, that isn't to say that Shabazz's ceiling is Nick Young. Given what Nick produced in college and in certain NBA seasons, it's fair to say that pressent-day Nick has underperformed to what his capabilities are.

Shabazz is much more focused and better at drawing fouls than Nick. Furthermore Nick is theoretically/empirically capable of a 17ppg season on 54% TS%. Per36, Nick is a career 18 ppg scorer on 53% TS% and a damn good defender to boot. The only problem is that he lacks focus and awareness - knocks that you can't lay on Shabazz lightly. I think the Nick Young analogy could hit, or it could undersell Shabazz due to the intangibles.

However at 8-9, he'll be a bit of a reach. Len, Zeller, and even Porter will be available at the tail end of the top 10. Shabazz is going to fall to the mid-teens, right around where Nick was drafted.

I don't think it's a fair argument to say Burke is much better than Shabazz. At college basketball I'd agree, but if the pro comparison was actually like that, Burke would be much higher up the draft board. The fear remains that Burke doesn't have some of the genetic tools necessary to be elite at the next level (the things out of his control: height, and athleticism), while Muhammad definitively has them. If Muhammad had the mentality of Burke, and if Burke had that genetic lottery of traits that Muhammad had, they'd be going 1 and 2 or vice verca. As it is, I don't think Burke is definitely a better player than Shabazz, and indeed I think it's actually more likely that Shabazz has the good or better NBA career than Burke. I just think if both pan out, and maximize their abilities, Burke would offer more, and be a more complete player.

At the end of the day this will be an interesting draft, a real interesting draft. It feels like a mine field of potential busts, and role players much like the 2011 draft, but even worse in some ways. For me, the most reliable guys in the top 9 to produce quality careers are probably McLemore, Noel, Bennett, and Muhammad. After that I'd go with the worker bee's with upside: Porter, Burke, Oladipo, and then the question marks: Len-will he develop, Zeller-is he able to compete at the next level, and McCollum-can he translate. Gary Harris is a confusing guy for me. I just don't know enough about him.

[hands11]

Pierre Jackson 5-10 180 is packing some muscle. Strong as an ox, lightening fast and amazing leaps and handles. And he can shoot. His number compare favorably to Burke. But he might be a little to rough around the edges for this team. But he has that winner persona like Burke and Smart do.

He's 5-10 though. While I'm a big believer that undersized PG's can succeed in the NBA, they better be hyper-skilled to do so. Looking at Pierre Jackson's numbers, I don't think he meets the standard.

Consider another undersized PG who excels in the NBA: Ty Lawson. Lawson averaged 22.2 points, 8.8 assists and 2.9 steals per 40 minutes at age 21 with North Carolina. He shot 47.2% from 3-pt range and 56% from 2-pt range, and only turned the ball over 1.9 times per 40. His numbers were flat out incredible.

For comparison, Pierre Jackson at the same age is averaging 21.8 points, 7.8 assists and 1.7 steals per 40. He shoots 35.9% from 3-pt range, 49% from 2-pt range and averages 3.7 turnovers per 48. His efficiency and shooting ability is nowhere close to that of Lawson. And with Jackson being just 5-10, he's actually working at an even greater disadvantage than Lawson.

Jackson looks like a 2nd round pick to me. He might carve out a niche in this league as a competent backup PG, but it's doubtful he'll be much better. He might be someone I'd consider with our second round pick, but he is by no means a sure thing to succeed in this league. His best case scenario might be Isaiah Thomas (of Sacramento, that is). But he also might be another AJ Price.

All that ranting to get to the facts

Yes, he is a second round pick. Did you look at how his numbers compared to Burkes ?

Actually, Im not sure how you got through posting the Lawson numbers and then Pierre and not stopping and go... opps.

You see how strong his is built and how athletic he is. Dude jumps out of the gym. 5-10 sure but he jumps tills his head is at the rim. He is going to be hard to stop buzzing around with that compact body. A poor man Lawson is a good description of him. And I would take that any day as my 2nd pick in the 2nd round. That would be cheap for what he offers.

Who was talking a starter ? Do we need a starting PG when Wall is going to hold that down for a long time earning a max contract ? No. We need a back up that can do all the thinks Pierre can do.

CJM would be the first round pick. And look at his numbers. He is a excellent scorer. And that would be our back up. And you can get him while trading down to get Deng/Withey.

Burke is a real nice looking player but totally the wrong fit for the Wizards at way to high a price. He needs to go some place where he can start.

[hands11]

I like what ive been reading about Pierre Jackson, btw. Wish I'd seen him play this year and didn't need to rely on youtube clips. Reading up on him, it just sounds like he will make a roster based on talent, rather than a space existing for him on the bench. Love the idea of getting him in the 2nd round. Love to draft him like we did Mack, but get a better player this time.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5eZS1-BetA[/youtube]

Then watch an entire game

[hands11]

Muhammed will probably pan out to be a decent bench scorer, but that's hardly what I want with the #8 overall pick in the draft.

As opposed to Burke being a decent bench guard with the 9th overall?

I kid. Burke is miles better than Shabazz and I support the 3rd guard draft strategy (as long as Porter is off the board). However, that isn't to say that Shabazz's ceiling is Nick Young. Given what Nick produced in college and in certain NBA seasons, it's fair to say that pressent-day Nick has underperformed to what his capabilities are.

Shabazz is much more focused and better at drawing fouls than Nick. Furthermore Nick is theoretically/empirically capable of a 17ppg season on 54% TS%. Per36, Nick is a career 18 ppg scorer on 53% TS% and a damn good defender to boot. The only problem is that he lacks focus and awareness - knocks that you can't lay on Shabazz lightly. I think the Nick Young analogy could hit, or it could undersell Shabazz due to the intangibles.

However at 8-9, he'll be a bit of a reach. Len, Zeller, and even Porter will be available at the tail end of the top 10. Shabazz is going to fall to the mid-teens, right around where Nick was drafted.

And to think, at this time last year he was all I read posted about here. Now no one wants him and he drawing N1on5 comparisons.

Funny what a year will do.

Its always the star in the next draft.

McLemore is a talented jumper shooter who is to soft mentally. He isn't the right addition for us.

CJM would be a way better choice. He actually has handles, a nasty crossover, and can drive as well as a wet jumper.

[AFM]

Shabazz can actually take it to the rack and posterize people. Young, even with his 40+" vertical, is an incredibly soft player who doesn't utilize his athleticism and instead relies on contested fadeaways. They are both one dimensional scorers, but don't play that similarly.

[mhd]

I really hope we move up in the lottery. I think Mclemore is a prospect that teams will want to trade up for. What about this 3-way (in light of Adelman's comments about needing a 2g):

Wiz trade Nene+RIghts to Mclemore (say they get the 2nd/3rd pick) for Love+Nets 2013 1st
Min trade Love for Humphries (expiring)+rights to Mclemore
Nets trade Humphries+2013 1st for Nene

NEW LINEUP:
Wiz:
PG: Wall/Price
SG: Beal/Webster/Temple
SF: Webster/Ariza
PF: Love/Booker
C: Emeka/Seraphin

[The Consiglieri]

I like what ive been reading about Pierre Jackson, btw. Wish I'd seen him play this year and didn't need to rely on youtube clips. Reading up on him, it just sounds like he will make a roster based on talent, rather than a space existing for him on the bench. Love the idea of getting him in the 2nd round. Love to draft him like we did Mack, but get a better player this time.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5eZS1-BetA[/youtube]

Then watch an entire game

Aldridge on him:

link:

http://www.nba.com/news/features/david_ ... index.html

"....Baylor's Pierre Jackson and Miami's Shane Larkin may have had the two best individual seasons of any point guards in college basketball this season.

Baylor had to regroup this season after losing Perry Jones III (Oklahoma City), Quincy Miller (Denver) and Quincy Acy (Toronto) to the NBA. But Jackson, the preseason player of the year in the Big 12, had a strong season. He was 20th in the country in scoring (19.7 ppg) and tied Burke for 11th place in assists (6.7).

Jackson was a second-team all-Big 12 selection, but the Bears didn't get out of the first round of the Big 12 tournament and were left out of the NCAAs. The Bears got an NIT bid and have reached the quarterfinals, with wins over Long Beach State and Arizona State. Jackson had 26 points and 16 assists in the win over ASU last Friday.

Jackson is even shorter than Burke, but his ability to get to the bucket will get him a look in the pros. Not too many college players were able to stay in front of him, and he could be a classic change-of-pace third guard.

"I know that his size will be an issue, but that kid is a game-changer," one Eastern Conference general manager said. "You can always say at worst that he's your third guard. To me, if he's not good enough as a solid backup point, I know he'll be good enough to be a Nate Robinson-type to go in there and mess things up and change the tempo. He's had some real good moments..."

[nate33]

Shabazz can actually take it to the rack and posterize people. Young, even with his 40+" vertical, is an incredibly soft player who doesn't utilize his athleticism and instead relies on contested fadeaways. They are both one dimensional scorers, but don't play that similarly.

Well, his contested fadeaways resulted in him scoring at an extremely efficient rate in college. Would Shabazz shoot an eFG% of .570 if he came back next year? That's what Young did as a 21-year-old. (Right now, as a 20-year-old, Shabazz's eFG% is .490.)

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm going to take another shot at my Wizards draft board... I've been reading alot of the pro-Bennett sentiment, and I was high on Bennett pretty early, as I thought I saw comparisons to Barkley and Larry Johnson in his game. So I'm convinced to move him back up despite some of my mental maturity concerns. Some other adjustments have been made, but here is my attempt to list in order desirable players for the Wizards to target in the draft with their 3 picks.


1. Nerlens Noel
2. Anthony Bennett
3. Otto Porter
4. Alex Len
5. Trey Burke
6. Kelly Olynyk
7. Glenn Robinson
8. Cody Zeller
9. Victor Oladipo
10. Gorgui Dieng
11. Jeff Withey
12. Steven Adams
13. Ben McLemore
14. Shabazz Muhammad
15. Marcus Smart
16. C.J. McCollum
17. Mitch McGary
18. Mike Muscala
19. Doug McDermott
20. Isaiah Austin
21. Erik Murphy
22. Sergey Karasev
23. Erick Green
24. Rudy Gobert
25. Adreian Payne
26. Ryan Kelly
27. Mason Plumlee
28. James McAdoo
29. Myck Kabongo
30. Solomon Hill

[DCZards]

McLemore is one of the few big time athletes in the class and thus one of the few with palpable star potential. But he scares me from a temperament standpoint. I get a little bit of an OJ Mayo vibe from him. I agree he'd be a natural fit playing in our system and with Wall and Beal. He's basically a more athletic Beal. Though Beal looked a lot more precocious than McLemore, who is a classic late bloomer. Beal is also a lot tougher and stronger bodied than McLemore to my eye.

The most talented player in this draft is McLemore, imo. I'm only take Noel ahead of him. If I'm the Zards and I'm drafting second, I'm taking McLemore, who will be the BPA at that point. I'll figure out after that how I'm going to play him 28-30 mins with Wall and Beal. I could see a lot of Wall, Beal, McLemore, Okafor, Nene lineups.

I'd find it hard to pass on McLemore, unless I could trade the pick for a proven NBA star or a couple of picks in the 8-16 range.

[doclinkin]

Shabazz can actually take it to the rack and posterize people.

Maybe I saw the games where he was out of shape, but the Bazz I saw was kinda groundbound except when he had a full head of steam. He had a junkball game of weak floaters and flipshots from odd angles. Got his shot off by quick release not by elevating above or outjumping opponents. Basically he looked like a smaller less efficient Antawn Jamison, without the rebounding. Okay and somewhat better positioning and intensity on defense, not ole' defense. Except that he was always ready to leak out in transition and leave his man to initiate the break, one reason why the rebounding was nonexistent at that end.

[mhd]

I think Mclemore is viewed by teams as a can't miss, but what about Kentavious Caldwell-Pope? He's NOT overaged (he turned 20 in February) and he's really athletic. He's a modern day wing in the sense that he shoots a ton of 3's (improved his % this yea quite a bit) and he's solid at at FT line (80%).

He was the SEC player of the year, finished 4th in steals, 9th in rebounding (7 boards a game!), and 6th in 3 point % despite shooting the 2nd most per game.

[doclinkin]

Yes I like KCP. He's a sleeper pick for me if he comes out. If he has a chance to test the waters he'll get hot in some workout and torch it, some team will fall in love and will get a promise from a team. But yeah I like players who display improvement in key stats and who show solid rebounding and steals totals for their position. If Oladipo is off the table I like this kid as a steal, so to speak.

[hands11]

So Pope is the topic. KCP

http://atlallday.com/2013/04/11/kentavi ... tery-pick/

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aMIAs7j5JA[/youtube]



Here is nice back piece on Michael Carter-Williams. Interesting info

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=en ... p3YXQ&NR=1

[WizardsWorld]

Len "officially" declared today for the draft.... when they showed that on SportsCenter all I could think of in my head was say hello to your next Wizard... LOL

[relinquishy]

Here's some random slightly off-topic food for thought. What if the Wizards signed Doug Collins? I know he wants to be on a playoff team and it looks as if the Wiz will be one next season as long as no major injuries occur. I'm not sure if I would be happy with the move, or even if it would be an upgrade over Witt. Thoughts?

[DCZards]

Not interested in Collins. Been there, done that.