Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[nate33]

Here's some random slightly off-topic food for thought. What if the Wizards signed Doug Collins? I know he wants to be on a playoff team and it looks as if the Wiz will be one next season as long as no major injuries occur. I'm not sure if I would be happy with the move, or even if it would be an upgrade over Witt. Thoughts?

I think Collins has strengths as a coach, but many weaknesses as well. He is very good at promoting defensive discipline and in getting consistent effort out of his players, but Philly fans complain about his lack of flexibility and inability to draw up plays in crunch time. Also, players grow to hate him after about 2 years because of his abrasiveness. I think Collins is good as "change the culture" type of coach who would take over for a bad team and turn them into a winning team. He's done that a few times already.

I don't think we have a need for that type of coach, however. Randy Wittman has already taken care of the issues that Doug Collins would presumably address. This team already has changed it's culture. They have defensive discipline and play hard every night. What they need now now is a top notch tactician to take them to the next level. They need a guy who can design plays to get them to play to their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. A guy like Thibadeau would be ideal.

At this point, I'm satisfied with Wittman. I think he has done a good job and deserves a shot at coaching the team with everyone healthy. I wouldn't hire a new coach unless EG was fired first, which means it won't happen until next summer at the earliest. Let the new GM find a new coach.

[Ruzious]

Yes I like KCP. He's a sleeper pick for me if he comes out. If he has a chance to test the waters he'll get hot in some workout and torch it, some team will fall in love and will get a promise from a team. But yeah I like players who display improvement in key stats and who show solid rebounding and steals totals for their position. If Oladipo is off the table I like this kid as a steal, so to speak.

Yeah, he is the kind of player who could really impress in workouts. The only negative that popped out the game I saw play was he's a sloppy ball-handler. Would I pick him for the Wiz? No. I don't see him doing anything that Beal doesn't do, and it'd be hard to play them together.

On Collins, I think he's been very overrated as a coach. All he's accomplished that others haven't is to show he can lose with Michael Jordan with 2 different franchises.

Bazz' ceiling is Jerry Stackhouse - who scored a lot but shot even more. He's not as good as Stackhouse was, but he's that style o player and very similar physically.

[nate33]

Bazz' ceiling is Jerry Stackhouse - who scored a lot but shot even more. He's not as good as Stackhouse was, but he's that style o player and very similar physically.

Wow, that's a PERFECT comparison. Stackhouse was a guy who put points on the board, but never in a manner that actually led to winning basketball. Shabazz is probably a slightly better shooter than Stackhouse, but he doesn't get to the line as much.

[truwizfan4evr]

Im sure Bazz will be in are range to pick. Could he actually be better in the pros then college basketball?

[DCsOwn]

Otto's declaring today. Press conference at 3.

[MikeTheKid]

Nerlens Noel is OFFICIAL, just shown on ESPN!!!

[pancakes3]

Bazz' ceiling is Jerry Stackhouse - who scored a lot but shot even more. He's not as good as Stackhouse was, but he's that style o player and very similar physically.

Wow, that's a PERFECT comparison. Stackhouse was a guy who put points on the board, but never in a manner that actually led to winning basketball. Shabazz is probably a slightly better shooter than Stackhouse, but he doesn't get to the line as much.

I just did a quick BR search of 6'6-6'9 guys who scored between 16-18 points on mid-40's% shooting and less than 2apg in their first 5 seasons since 1990. Caron Butler was the closest match on that list. 2nd closes? Cal Cheaney. Both Bullets/Wizards.

[stevemcqueen1]

Im sure Bazz will be in are range to pick. Could he actually be better in the pros then college basketball?

Certainly. And in fact, I think it's a good bet that he'll be a much better pro.

Bazz had a rough year. He got injured in the summer and it hurt his conditioning early, didn't looks as explosive or fluid as before. It also hurt his ability to mesh with the rest of the team early, UCLA was very young and inexperienced. Then he got declared ineligible and had to miss the beginning of the year. Then by the time he started rounding into form in January and February, he got sick and apparently lost 15 pounds and he really looked like he lost his explosiveness and energy.

So his body went through a roller coaster this year and I think it took a toll on his overall level of power, explosiveness, and conditioning.

It wasn't just Bazz, UCLA had some serious troubles too. Howland was a marked man apparently and going through a lot of off the court drama. Plus he wasn't a very good coach... And UCLA struggled to develop offensive rhythms, mostly because Larry Drew was a bad PG, but also because they had a bunch of freshmen and had to rely on guys like Kyle Anderson to trigger the action.

Bazz is a mercenary player for whom CBB was a detour on the way to the NBA. Once he's finally in the NBA and getting paid legitimately, I think a lot of the drama and distractions surrounding him will go by the wayside.

I think he's a good player and he reminds me of James Harden as a scorer. But I still think there is some baggage with him. I really don't like that he's a year older than expected and he lied to everyone about it. His dad is shady as hell and I don't like Bazz having that kind of big influence in his life. Is his dad coming with him? And I don't like how concerned with his brand he seems to be. I like the talented young players like John and Beal who only care about basketball and don't care about their brand.

I don't think Bazz will bust because he's got clear NBA skills and is probably the best scorer in the class. But I think he could hurt a locker room dynamic with his personality. That's just based on my speculation, I don't know him. It's just the way he comes off to me.

[Jay81]

we should get a pretty good player at 8. Really no difference between 3,4,8 etc

[stevemcqueen1]

One good thing I will say about Bazz's intangibles though is that he seems professional and he plays hard as hell. He's got a non stop motor and looks extremely competitive. He doesn't stop working for position or trying to get open. He fights for second chances as well as any swing man you'll see. He's was literally been engineered to be a star NBA scorer and he's just so aggressive and relentless. What he lacks in physical ability, he makes up for in effort and if Ben McLemore had Bazz's motor and mindset, he'd be unstoppable. Or on the flip side, if Bazz had McLemore's body and absurd athleticism, he'd be the next Kobe.

Bazz is very different from guys like Nick Young in that he actually clearly works hard and cares. NY was a clown that didn't care.

[stevemcqueen1]

we should get a pretty good player at 8. Really no difference between 3,4,8 etc

I think this class has a top four. Noel and McLemore are a top two and then Bennett and Smart are a little behind them. After that, I agree, the class levels out for a while and there isn't a big difference from 5 to about 12.

[truwizfan4evr]

Im sure Bazz will be in are range to pick. Could he actually be better in the pros then college basketball?

Certainly. And in fact, I think it's a good bet that he'll be a much better pro.

Bazz had a rough year. He got injured in the summer and it hurt his conditioning early, didn't looks as explosive or fluid as before. It also hurt his ability to mesh with the rest of the team early, UCLA was very young and inexperienced. Then he got declared ineligible and had to miss the beginning of the year. Then by the time he started rounding into form in January and February, he got sick and apparently lost 15 pounds and he really looked like he lost his explosiveness and energy.

So his body went through a roller coaster this year and I think it took a toll on his overall level of power, explosiveness, and conditioning.

It wasn't just Bazz, UCLA had some serious troubles too. Howland was a marked man apparently and going through a lot of off the court drama. Plus he wasn't a very good coach... And UCLA struggled to develop offensive rhythms, mostly because Larry Drew was a bad PG, but also because they had a bunch of freshmen and had to rely on guys like Kyle Anderson to trigger the action.

Bazz is a mercenary player for whom CBB was a detour on the way to the NBA. Once he's finally in the NBA and getting paid legitimately, I think a lot of the drama and distractions surrounding him will go by the wayside.

I think he's a good player and he reminds me of James Harden as a scorer. But I still think there is some baggage with him. I really don't like that he's a year older than expected and he lied to everyone about it. His dad is shady as hell and I don't like Bazz having that kind of big influence in his life. Is his dad coming with him? And I don't like how concerned with his brand he seems to be. I like the talented young players like John and Beal who only care about basketball and don't care about their brand.

I don't think Bazz will bust because he's got clear NBA skills and is probably the best scorer in the class. But I think he could hurt a locker room dynamic with his personality. That's just based on my speculation, I don't know him. It's just the way he comes off to me.

Good reading! I'm sure i will get some heat with wizards fans on here but we should take a gamble on Bazz If he still left why not? With John Wall are point guard i think he can fit in well with us. And if he becomes a better pro then we would get a big time steal in the draft this year.

[Dark Faze]

The only thing Bazz has going for him is the HS hype and the Howlen factor.

Other than that he's a terrible pick for almost any team in the top 10. Just didn't produce well at all, terrible TS percentage, eye test looked bad, really really really terrible off the court concerns. I'd be shocked if the Kings drafted him--he's exactly what they don't need.

The safest pick in the draft isn't Mclemore--Mclemore if his shot isn't as good as advertised isn't going to be able to affect games in the way Beal can. Beal is better at pretty much everything and is one of the most composed/high IQ rooks I've seen in a while.

I think Otto Porter is the safest pick by a wide margin. He is simply going to add a lot to a team. Problem is that he isn't likely to ever be an all-star, but in a draft like this if you can get a sure-fire starter with zero bust potential then you should probably take it.

My draft board for the Wiz is based on need/floor. With a team that was set to be a playoff team without any additions, going for a homerun isn't necessary. It's more necessary to get a player that is sure to contribute and not be worth nothing in the vein of Singleton/Vesely. So upside isn't really high on my priority. I'm also assuming that we extend Okafor--he has a great history of health and I don't see his production dropping too much over the course of a short term 2-3 year deal. Doesn't count Nerlens or McLemore. Nerlens is clearly #1 on our board if he's there. McLemore we'd probably trade down to a team who likes him.


1. Trey Burke - This is a chess move. He's the BPA available if we get him and there are a lack of point guards in next years draft. If we can showcase him a little and be able to sell him as a franchise point, then we may be able to trade into a very talented 2014 lottery pick.

2. Otto Porter - Safe. Decent upside. Doesn't match Websters shooting or Arizas defense but the impact of either of those guys being out at SF absolutely kills our team. He is going to be the next Kawhi/Faried. A guy that initially you're not thrilled with getting but look back and think, "thank god I was conservative."

3. Kelly Olynyk - The highest skilled big on the floor, would be a perfect safety net for time missed for Nene. PF/C, can play either. He's the perfect PF/C for Wall. Wall loves to dump the ball off to Nene/Okafor at the FT line off the screen roll and Kelly is going to knock those down the vast majority of the time. Defensive and rebounding concerns are overrated, as Kelly had a similar TRB% to Alex Len and other bigs of the draft class.

4. Alex Len - Our hopeful C of the future if drafted. His physical attributes are there, but there are two main flags for me -- his inability to at least make the tournament as a soph with his size/speed in a down year talent wise for the draft class, and two, how invisible he was at times and how he'd look "lost" a lot. Guys who look lost end up living on the bench. The fact that this happened as early as an NIT game makes me wonder how he'll be able to produce in the NBA, where the speed is so much higher and where his physical attributes will get him no where without the IQ and skill the back them up.

5. Anthony Bennett - Tweener. He scares me a lot. He can't play SF. Too bulky. We've seen so many different kinds of tweeners over the last few drafts who have busted so far--Williams, Beasley, T-Rob...and all of them were better than Bennett was in college. The fact that he has some maturity issues makes him a hard sell.

5. Victor Oladipo - Skilled high IQ guard. I'd like to get him and sell him off like Burke, but as a two guard his name won't carry much weight after the shine of the tournament wears off and new draftees come in. I think Burkes shine will be there as a potential franchise point. We'd likely be stuck with Oladipo.

6. Gorgi Dieng - I really like what he brings to the table defensively. The way he was able to defend a very strong Mitch McGary makes me thing he won't get overpowered in the NBA and his jumpshot is really good.

7. Jeff Withey - See above except without the offensive ability and inferior lateral/PNR speed.

8. CJ McCollum - See above, except not as good.

9. Shabazz Muhammad - He has the potential to be a terrible cancer for a team, but his skillset actually does fit in quite well with our team. He'd play similarly offensively to Beal. I'd think of him as basically as a Webster clone who moves off the ball better. Downside is that he's almost certain to be a cancer.

[sfam]

Dark Faze, you make a good case for taking the "Low Risk, Medium Reward" player. Porter allows us to confidently solidify our SF position for the next 4-5 years or so, even though this means dumping Webster to find, say, a combo guard with the MLE, and perhaps find a stretch 4 in the second round. I would characterize Bennett as a "Medium Risk, High Reward" player, but totally get that many see Bennett as having bust potential (meaning he would be "High Risk, High Reward" if you agree he might have all star potential). I think Bennett at least makes it as a role player -I don't see is floor being lower than that. I would take the bet that he becomes a solid, perhaps dominating starter against some PF matchups (and I think he could have star potential).

Worse case in retrospect would be drafting a "High Risk, Low Reward" pick, which is what it looks like we did with Vesely. In watching him, his ceiling appears to be as a solid role player, which, at this point, doesn't look like it will happen. McGee was clearly a "High Risk, High Reward" pick. I'd put Seraphin as a "High Risk, Medium Reward" pick.

[nate33]

5. Anthony Bennett - Tweener. He scares me a lot. He can't play SF. Too bulky. We've seen so many different kinds of tweeners over the last few drafts who have busted so far--Williams, Beasley, T-Rob...and all of them were better than Bennett was in college. The fact that he has some maturity issues makes him a hard sell.

Regarding the Robinson comparison, I don't think it applies. Bennett was way better as a freshman than TRob.

Regarding the Derrick Williams comparison, I think Bennett was comparable to a freshman to Williams. As it turns out, Williams is currently a modestly below-average starter. It's reasonably likely that he could pan out to be an average starter.

Regarding the Beasley comparison, Beasley was definitely better, but he was a headcase. I don't know enough about Bennett's mental makeup to evaluate that comparison, but it's certainly something that needs to be explored.

One thing I would also point out is that Williams and Beasley are considered busts because they were taken #2 overall. Expectations were for them to be franchise players. If Williams had been taken 6th or 7th, I don't think he would be viewed as such a disappointment. We are currently contemplating taking Bennett at #7-8, if he is still on the board. Even if your comps bear out, that doesn't seem like such a risk to me.

[DCZards]

The only thing Bazz has going for him is the HS hype and the Howlen factor.

Other than that he's a terrible pick for almost any team in the top 10. Just didn't produce well at all, terrible TS percentage, eye test looked bad, really really really terrible off the court concerns. I'd be shocked if the Kings drafted him--he's exactly what they don't need.

The safest pick in the draft isn't Mclemore--Mclemore if his shot isn't as good as advertised isn't going to be able to affect games in the way Beal can. Beal is better at pretty much everything and is one of the most composed/high IQ rooks I've seen in a while.

I think Otto Porter is the safest pick by a wide margin. He is simply going to add a lot to a team. Problem is that he isn't likely to ever be an all-star, but in a draft like this if you can get a sure-fire starter with zero bust potential then you should probably take it.

1. Trey Burke - This is a chess move. He's the BPA available if we get him and there are a lack of point guards in next years draft. If we can showcase him a little and be able to sell him as a franchise point, then we may be able to trade into a very talented 2014 lottery pick.

I agree with you regarding Porter probably being a safer pick than McLemore in some respects. Otto does a lot of things well and is likely to impact a game in many more ways than McLemore. But McLemore has superstar potential, imo, and if I’m picking second (assuming Noel goes #1) I’m taking my chances with McLemore band his tremendous upside.

I don’t understand the fascination with Burke as far as the Zards are concerned. I don’t doubt that he’ll be a very good NBA player but I’m opposed to using a top ten pick on a guy who is too small to be anything but a PG, especially when we already have a guy who’s going to be playing 35 plus minutes at PG. That’s too high of a pick to use on a backup PG, when there are other more urgent needs, such as a young big like Bennett or Len.

I also think you underestimate Bennett’s potential to be an outstanding PF/SF.

What are the “terrible” off court concerns you have about Shabbazz?

[AFM]

I agree that if we use a pick on a PG, he needs to be a combo guard IMO. I'd rather use a later pick on CJ McCollum or Pierre Jackson and have him come off the bench for 20+ minutes a game behind Beal and Wall.
DCZards, the "terrible" things about Shabazz (terrible is probably an overstatement) are that he's actually 20, not 19, and his weird "Tiger Mom" father.
Here's an interesting article, if you feel like a good read:
http://www.latimes.com/news/columnone/l ... .htmlstory

[Dark Faze]

The Burke pick is just about trade value. I think drafting guard help would be stupid.

I would choose McLemore over Porter. I'm just saying that Porter is bustproof. McLemore if his shot isn't falling is going to disappear from whole games. This is unikely though, but a true possibility.

As for Bazz, he's promoted his brand more than any other player I've seen in the last 10 years of college basketball, and that includes sure-fire talent like Wall, Rose, Durant and every other #1 overall pick. That'd be okay if he wasn't a gunner, but he's a ballhog of the highest tier with a bad TS% and zero ability to get his teammates involved or help them get better.

He is going to be a cancer if he plays like he did at UCLA.

[nate33]

I don’t understand the fascination with Burke as far as the Zards are concerned. I don’t doubt that he’ll be a very good NBA player but I’m opposed to using a top ten pick on a guy who is too small to be anything but a PG, especially when we already have a guy who’s going to be playing 35 plus minutes at PG. That’s too high of a pick to use on a backup PG, when there are other more urgent needs, such as a young big like Bennett or Len.

I don't understand how you can voice concerns about the Burke pick at the same time as you praise the notion of drafting McLemore.

The way I see it, there are at least 24 minutes available for Burke (because Wall can play SG for the 12 minutes that Beal rests), but only 12 minutes available for McLemore. A Wall/Beal/Burke 3-guard rotation can play the entire game with no defensive mismatches and with constant, floor-stretching outside shooting. Wall would get 36 minutes, Beal 33, and Burke 27.

A Wall/Beal/McLemore rotation won't address our backup PG problems and requires one of Beal/McLemore to play SF if either one expects to average more than 24 minutes a game. Wall would get 36 minutes. Beal would get 33 minutes at SG. And McLemore would get 15 minutes at SG and 12 at SF (where it's questionable if he is better than either Webster or Ariza).

If one views Burke and McLemore to be on roughly the same tier talentwise, than Burke is the better pick. The only way McLemore makes sense is if you think he is way better than Burke. I just don't see it.

[nate33]

I agree that if we use a pick on a PG, he needs to be a combo guard IMO.

Burke has combo guard ability (he can surely shoot the ball and adopt a score first mentality when he wants) just not combo guard size. That's not a problem alongside Wall because Wall can guard SG's.