DCZards wrote:fishercob wrote:I have zero problem with Burke as the pick if he's the BPA when we're up. There would be two sets of downsides; first is that he sucks. This seems unlikely, especially since a big chunk of his minutes would come against opposing twos.
There are a bunch of ways Burke could help the Wizards. I would not pass on him if he's BPA.
Problem is BPA is always such a tough call...and it's often very subjective. Are we talking about the best college player available or the best projected NBA player available? If Bennett, Burke, Shabbazz, Len and Zeller are available when the Zards draft who is the BPA?
Last year, the debate was whether Beal or MKG was the BPA and, if I recall correctly, most of us looked at it as pretty much a wash. So several of us supported drafting Beal because he filled a more urgent need for outside shooting. IMO, that's how the Zards should be approaching this draft. For that reason, I've got Bennett, Len and Shabbazz clearly ahead of Burke.
I always viewed it as BPPA, best pro. Wrote more stuff about it in regards to football. In regards to hoops i view it the same way, i dont care how great a college player said player is, i care how great an NBA player he is, so I way his actual production, with his projectable athletic talent to figure out where they rate. One of the two reasons I have some issues with metrics with college players in basketball. Leagues are so thoroughly diverse, ditto the ages you play against, ditto the differentiation in skill level between NBA and college hoops, especially today. That's why Im terrified of guys like Porter, and why I had some minor issues with Beal, and placed MKG and Drummond ahead of him (but never imagined we'd draft Drummond). I had MKG higher because he had the better projectable ceiling, particularly if he developed a reliable jump shot. Small sample size dictated that his freshman year along, particularly as fragmented as it was, doesn't provide a clear picture. For the same reasons I gave Beal a free pass on shooting, i gave MKG some reasonable doubt about him just being a bad jump shooter. Not enough of a sample size, and a frreshman year alone simply is way too weird of an environment to dictate exactly what a player is capable of.
In the end I lifed MKG to #2 on my board because of athleticism, talent, leadership skills, upside, and the potential that his one weakness was very fixable (you cant fix height, length, athleticism, etc, you can fix a jump shot).
This year I view things the same way, which is why I am cooler on Porter than most, and much cooler than Zeller, and Olynyk, and higher on risky picks like Shabazz. The jump from college to the NBA kills the dream of many a good and great college player, and its usually for one of two reasons: #1 the player isn't athletic enough to compete at this level (Gottleib talked about how he simply didn't have the athleticism to dominate as a PG like he could at the college level, the next step up required a speed, and athletic ability that BI-12 and Big East basektabll hadn't demanded of him in the same way, and with the same consistency and it ended his NBA hopes), and #2 its the lack of an elite skill. If you aren't an elite player with elite talent, a John wall, a Rasheed Wallace, a Chris Webber, Dwight Howard, or Kobe Bryant, than you have to have an elite skill to be able to stick around. John Stockton wasn't an elite anything in terms of athleticism, ditto many other players, whether it be McHale, Bird, or even Kyle Korver etc. What these players made up for it with was jump out the jim skills in certain areas that were better than just about anyone. That's how you make it if your not the superstar athelte. That's how Tim Legler all people had a career, and why people like Porter frighten me. If a player lacks athleticism, AND lacks elite skill in any particular area, that player tends to bust. This is why Im scared of some of the big men in this draft, why Im scared of Porter etc. Even if Burke isn't elite in size, or athleticism, he does have elite vision, and judgment, he's spectacular when it comes to running a teams offense, and that is something that can translate. I do not know if other players being frequently mentioned have that though. I think it may be Zeller's footwork, and skill in transition that may be his ticket, maybe Olynyk's efficency and jump shot. If not, both of them will fail. Porter needs to be great at something or he will be good at nothing. That's why I'd prefer to draft Bennett, Len, Muhammad etc among the guys that might be left when we pick.
