fallacy wrote:can anyone explain why the Rockets have technically been better with Harden off the court all season? I didn't want to bring it up before because people would just yell sample size, but now that the season is over we can discuss it. His net rating all season has been between -1 and -6, and is currently -3.4. For comparison, Kendrick Perkins is +0.4
Asik is a net +7.3, so it's not just the starting unit. Delfino is even +5.9, so it's not just Asik.
I'm not saying that Harden makes the Rockets worse, so why do the numbers say he does?
I'm frustrated with the lack of advanced +/- data right now, so I'm kind of gunshy using any of this data at all really. (Funny how spoiled I've gotten by it all.)
Getting into it some though:
First thing to look at is minutes played. Guys who've played way less minutes oftentimes have major biases in their raw +/- data. The top 3 guys minutes-wise all have similar raw on/off stuff to Harden. The 4th guy on the list is Asik, who has the sweet net +/-, but plays about 9 minutes less per game than Harden. Okay so when I see something like that, if I'm asking who is more valuable, I'm pretty reluctant to pick the lesser minute guy. The guys playing even less minutes btw, just ignore them when looking at Harden. It's not realistic to think that they are doing something secretly amazing. One can argue that the drop off between Harden & them isn't as huge as people think, but not more than that.
Forgetting about the glory each guy deserves and just getting into the nitty gritty, the glaring thing I see is that the team's rebounding falls apart when Asik goes to the bench, and this contributes to the clear boost Asik seems to be giving on defense. Looking into the team's leading rebounders we quickly see what appears to be an issue:
1. Asik 11.7
2. Parsons 5.3
Okay, so, rebounding without Asik appears to be not getting done. That's a bit melodramatic because it's not so much that the team is horrible at rebounding without Asik as it is that they are just quite good with him, but still, Asik's rebounding is having a big enough impact that it's distorting all other players +/- on the team.
So yeah, I think the issue is that Asik is really good, and the team hasn't really found a way to work that well when he's not on the court.
Now one can ask: Shouldn't Harden, as the "superstar" be able to trump anything along those lines? I'd like to have access to more data, but I'm inclined to say, yeah, this is a chink in his armor. Harden does need to get in the flow a step further before he's really an MVP candidate type of player.