Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

[AFM]

CCJ and Dat's comments from the first page are eerily accurate.

[Zonkerbl]

They were playing mainly against bad teams, injured teams, and teams that didn't care.

Teams that didn't care = last six games of the season, which Nate has excluded from the sample.
Bad and injured teams = and yet more than half of games were against playoff teams.

Ruzious, this 19 game sample seems to be immune from all the deficiencies you accuse it of.

Not saying you're wrong, but Nate's 19 game sample certainly doesn't support the conclusion you're trying to make.

We'll see, I guess. My take on this is that the team plays well when one of Nene, Seraphin, or Vesely (or James Singleton) is having a good game, which I guess was the case during that stretch. Our frontcourt had to play well, because our SG and SF sucked.

So now it looks like we've improved the SG position, so we have more margin for error. But the season will still depend on the health of Nene's feet, or Seraphin's continued improved play, or the unlikely re-emergence of Vesely from his burger-induced somnolescence. And Wall's health. Not too encouraged about that right now. I guess we'll see where we are a month from now and really know what we have.

Accurate AND eloquent!

[Dat2U]

I think Vegas has it right. 30.5-47.5.

I could be off by half a game... or so.

With Wall's injury and Nene missing training camp, I was thinking probably just short of 30 wins. They'll be yet another miserable start to the season (8-32, around .250 winning percentage) and an extended yet utterly meaningless feel good late season run (around .500) that has a strong possibility of taking us out of the running for a high lottery pick this time around. And once again, that run will have the front office thinking, they're just a bit of good health & one player away from competing for the playoffs. And the reign of Ernie Grunfeld continues.

Of course I need to see some preseason games to get a real feel for things but I'm not overly optimistic about the season or long term.

I just wonder when the novelty of having older, professional players with marginal talent will wear off and the board begins to yearn for guys with "upside" on the roster once again.

Dame!!! I really need to buy some lottery tickets.

[queridiculo]

Predicted the team to be in a hole early (which turned out to be a chasm), 28 wins and both Wall and Nene to miss 30+ games.

Looks like I wasn't too far off.

[BigA]

Wizards ended up missing out on the 9th seed by 5 games.

[Higga]

Unlike most years though we actually finished the season terribly. Our winning streak came a few weeks too early. Still, another terrible year for the Bullets/Wizards. What else is new?

On to the Capitals run to the Stanley Cup and the Nats march to the World Series. At least all the other teams in D.C. are good...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Wizards are feeling confident about Jordan Crawford's improvement. He has stood out so far in training camp.

I think they'll go 29-53.

I believe there will be significant games missed by Nene to curb any enthusiasm. Wall missing games will probably not be as traumatic or costly to the win total as most think. I think Shelvin might do better than most imagine. I don't see enough offense and star power to win games any other way than defensively.

If Nene plays 70 games, I would up the record to 37-45; but I think he's going to miss a good bit of the season.

This turned out to be on target.

Nate Wolters or CJ McCollum would each be interchangeable backups to Beal. Jose Calderon is a UFA who could help and I think Wolters is much the same player as Calderon. I think Price did a good job and so did Temple filling in as asked, but the Wizards would probably be better off choosing one of them and investing in a more talented young player.

DJ Stephens is better, BTW, than any of these players defensively. A real smart move would be to add Stephens as an undrafted FA, or to spend a late second on him. He's potentially a game changer.

What I would do if I were the Wizards is swing for the fence this offseason

[montestewart]

The Wizards are feeling confident about Jordan Crawford's improvement. He has stood out so far in training camp.

I think they'll go 29-53.

I believe there will be significant games missed by Nene to curb any enthusiasm. Wall missing games will probably not be as traumatic or costly to the win total as most think. I think Shelvin might do better than most imagine. I don't see enough offense and star power to win games any other way than defensively.

If Nene plays 70 games, I would up the record to 37-45; but I think he's going to miss a good bit of the season.

This turned out to be on target.

Nate Wolters or CJ McCollum would each be interchangeable backups to Beal. Jose Calderon is a UFA who could help and I think Wolters is much the same player as Calderon. I think Price did a good job and so did Temple filling in as asked, but the Wizards would probably be better off choosing one of them and investing in a more talented young player.

DJ Stephens is better, BTW, than any of these players defensively. A real smart move would be to add Stephens as an undrafted FA, or to spend a late second on him. He's potentially a game changer.

What I would do if I were the Wizards is swing for the fence this offseason

CCJ, anyone can huff on a tube of airplane glue, toss a paint balloon as they fall unconscious to the floor, and splat a stray strand of blue onto the number 29. That is not the same thing as having a mathematically precise system of letter perfect accuracy that pinpoints within a millionth of a millimeter the exact win total anticipated within the programmed variables. I have such a system, alternate-Q, that correctly predicted the Wizards total of thirty wins. Versus reasonable expectations, Ariza played better, Seraphin played worse, Webster played better, Vesely played worse, Nene was injured more, Okafor hardly at all, Wall out longer but then played better, Booker not as much, Beal out a bit more. These variable results explain the appearance of inaccuracy in the in fact correct prediction of 30.

TheBigThree used his wildly erratic Elevated-99 method of win total calculation, floydfan29 employed his rather conservative half-Windsor approach, and gesa2 his JustAdd2 (beta version, people keep adding two to it; he should change the name). We quibble about process at the annual meetings (great fun, hope you can make it next year) but we respect each other, because we each have a process. You may, like us, choose to marry your fortunes to a system of infallible accuracy and uncanny results, regardless of their correspondence to outcome. Or, like some around here (and you know who you are), you can close your eyes, pray to Sam Mescalito, and for a lucky few, he'll answer prayers one-in-a-thousand times, with a coincidentally, superficially, ephemerally correct answer, that at first glance looks right. The choice is yours.

And remember, the name of this thread is "Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013." Thus, 29 is not really correct.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My system is no system, monte. Randomness, chaos, entropy, and blind faith are what I use.

Seems the Wizards didn't quite tank their way to 7th….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... tery-odds/

The Wizards lost to the Detroit Pistons once again. As if suffering a four-game regular-season sweep to the equally lowly Pistons wasn’t enough, the Wizards lost a tiebreaker on Friday that will give them the eighth-best odds (3.5 percent) of winning the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

Washington (29-53) finished tied with Detroit for the seventh-worst record but the Pistons have the seventh-best odds (3.6 percent) after the NBA conducted a random drawing overseen by the accounting firm of Ernst & Young. The draft lottery will be held May 21 in New York. Orlando, which finished an NBA-worst 20-62, has the best odds at 25 percent.

[montestewart]

My system is no system, monte. Randomness, chaos, entropy, and blind faith are what I use.

Seems the Wizards didn't quite tank their way to 7th….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... tery-odds/

The Wizards lost to the Detroit Pistons once again. As if suffering a four-game regular-season sweep to the equally lowly Pistons wasn’t enough, the Wizards lost a tiebreaker on Friday that will give them the eighth-best odds (3.5 percent) of winning the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

Washington (29-53) finished tied with Detroit for the seventh-worst record but the Pistons have the seventh-best odds (3.6 percent) after the NBA conducted a random drawing overseen by the accounting firm of Ernst & Young. The draft lottery will be held May 21 in New York. Orlando, which finished an NBA-worst 20-62, has the best odds at 25 percent.

Terd's "save face" imperative and Ernie's "save job" imperative seem to be at odds with the team's "save future" imperative. Maybe a compromise, "save that 8th seed for us," is in the works.

[doclinkin]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

Ask Kwame Brown.

[Dat2U]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

Ask Kwame Brown.

And James Harden... as dobrojim mentioned awhile back, although I made a quick about face after watching him in person during summer league.

And Hassan Whiteside... Playing with ADD must really be hard.

And Kyrie Irving... He was hard to figure out because he barely played. Thought he would be good... not great.

And any freakishly athletic 7-0 that moves like the wind, lol.

[montestewart]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

Ask Kwame Brown.

And James Harden... as dobrojim mentioned awhile back, although I made a quick about face after watching him in person during summer league.

And Hassan Whiteside... Playing with ADD must really be hard.

And Kyrie Irving... He was hard to figure out because he barely played. Thought he would be good... not great.

And any freakishly athletic 7-0 that moves like the wind, lol.

Yeah, the list is endless. Were you the one who called Cole Aldrich the most NBA-ready player in the draft? Maybe not. He sure was ready for the bench.

Regardless, between you and CCJ, I probably get 75% of my draft preview, and if I ever get half the points you do in the draft prediction contest, well I'll just retire right there.

[Dat2U]

And James Harden... as dobrojim mentioned awhile back, although I made a quick about face after watching him in person during summer league.

And Hassan Whiteside... Playing with ADD must really be hard.

And Kyrie Irving... He was hard to figure out because he barely played. Thought he would be good... not great.

And any freakishly athletic 7-0 that moves like the wind, lol.

Yeah, the list is endless. Were you the one who called Cole Aldrich the most NBA-ready player in the draft? Maybe not. He sure was ready for the bench.

Regardless, between you and CCJ, I probably get 75% of my draft preview, and if I ever get half the points you do in the draft prediction contest, well I'll just retire right there.

Cole Aldrich? Oh no no no, lol. I've always been skeptical of the american born white player "cough" got Kevin Love wrong too. I was calling Aldrich a future 3rd string center long before he hung up his Kansas jersey

Regarding the draft prediction contests, I use a mix of the rumors out there and analyze the team's front office types to see which rumors matc . Certain GMs like certain types of players. Geoff Petrie likes guys with a mixture of skill & flair. Joe Dumars likes toughness mixed with athleticism (he got away from that for a few years). Colangelo likes to believe he's smarter than the average guy so he'll pick against the grain and leans European. Ainge often goes with the consensus upside pick where ever he's picking.

[hands11]

Cole Aldrich

I think posted some interest in him as well. Opps.

And I'm still waiting for Wesley Johnson. Opps Opps.

[AFM]

Regarding the draft prediction contests, I use a mix of the rumors out there and analyze the team's front office types to see which rumors matc . Certain GMs like certain types of players. Geoff Petrie likes guys with a mixture of skill & flair. Joe Dumars likes toughness mixed with athleticism (he got away from that for a few years). Colangelo likes to believe he's smarter than the average guy so he'll pick against the grain and leans European. Ainge often goes with the consensus upside pick where ever he's picking.

And Ernie?

[fishercob]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

Ask Kwame Brown.

And James Harden... as dobrojim mentioned awhile back, although I made a quick about face after watching him in person during summer league.

And Hassan Whiteside... Playing with ADD must really be hard.

And Kyrie Irving... He was hard to figure out because he barely played. Thought he would be good... not great.

And any freakishly athletic 7-0 that moves like the wind, lol.

Ah, Hassan Whiteside. Just brought up his name today when I was asking Nivek why Noel rates so high in YODA and his primary response was "he blocks a lot of shots."

[miller31time]

Regarding the draft prediction contests, I use a mix of the rumors out there and analyze the team's front office types to see which rumors matc . Certain GMs like certain types of players. Geoff Petrie likes guys with a mixture of skill & flair. Joe Dumars likes toughness mixed with athleticism (he got away from that for a few years). Colangelo likes to believe he's smarter than the average guy so he'll pick against the grain and leans European. Ainge often goes with the consensus upside pick where ever he's picking.

And Ernie?

[doclinkin]

Regarding the draft prediction contests, I use a mix of the rumors out there and analyze the team's front office types to see which rumors matc . Certain GMs like certain types of players. Geoff Petrie likes guys with a mixture of skill & flair. Joe Dumars likes toughness mixed with athleticism (he got away from that for a few years). Colangelo likes to believe he's smarter than the average guy so he'll pick against the grain and leans European. Ainge often goes with the consensus upside pick where ever he's picking.

And Ernie?

Ernie has stated he goes for upside and athleticism. Figures rookies are a crapshoot but you can't teach size and jumpery, need to swing for home runs if you get a chance. He has a weak spot for Eastern Europeans, and has said he likes Big East and ACC players. He likes undervalued players, ones that others steer clear from due to character or other question marks despite their ability (Sprewell was a classic Ernie trade in this regard). Would prefer to trade if possible for a proven (but undervalued) commodity.

He's pretty predictable actually, if he doesn't trade I usually have his pick pegged by draft day, usually by the player he downgrades and which player's workouts do not show in the official team page.

All signs point to Len currently.

[fishercob]

Regarding the draft prediction contests, I use a mix of the rumors out there and analyze the team's front office types to see which rumors matc . Certain GMs like certain types of players. Geoff Petrie likes guys with a mixture of skill & flair. Joe Dumars likes toughness mixed with athleticism (he got away from that for a few years). Colangelo likes to believe he's smarter than the average guy so he'll pick against the grain and leans European. Ainge often goes with the consensus upside pick where ever he's picking.

And Ernie?

Ernie has stated he goes for upside and athleticism. Figures rookies are a crapshoot but you can't teach size and jumpery, need to swing for home runs if you get a chance. He has a weak spot for Eastern Europeans, and has said he likes Big East and ACC players. He likes undervalued players, ones that others steer clear from due to character or other question marks despite their ability (Sprewell was a classic Ernie trade in this regard). Would prefer to trade if possible for a proven (but undervalued) commodity.

He's pretty predictable actually, if he doesn't trade I usually have his pick pegged by draft day, usually by the player he downgrades and which player's workouts do not show in the official team page.

All signs point to Len currently.

Hi.