Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[fishercob]

A while back, someone (maybe doc) mentioned Nik Vucevic -- another big Euro who played in a major conference, and never got a ton of hype. Vucevic seems to be turning into a really good playe, and from what I can tell did not put up numbers as good as Len's as a sophomore. Plus, Len's bigger, and perhaps somewhat relatedly blocks a ton more shots.

Then again, both guys seemed to have far worse sophomore years than Cole Adrich. So I don't know.

I'd like to know what YODA has to say on Noel, Len, Aldrich, and Vucevic.

[stevemcqueen1]

Noel's performance against Ole Miss was one of the best I saw from any prospect this year. Totally dominant, looked like Anthony Davis.

He's the best shot blocker of his generation. Even better than Anthony Davis was. He blocked something like six shots in that game after he picked up his fourth foul. He's worthy of going first.

[fishercob]

Noel's performance against Ole Miss was one of the best I saw from any prospect this year. Totally dominant, looked like Anthony Davis.

He's the best shot blocker of his generation. Even better than Anthony Davis was. He blocked something like six shots in that game after he picked up his fourth foul. He's worthy of going first.

We're taking first on the strength of their shotblocking alone?

Last season the NBA leaders in block percentage were Ibaka, Javale, Deandre, Udoh, Biyombo, Dalembert, Hibbert, and Joel Anthony. Don't we need a broader criteria set for how good a player is?

[rockymac52]

I brought this up about 10 pages ago, but I changed my email on my realGM account and got locked out for a couple days so I couldn't respond, so sorry if anybody feels like this is beating a dead horse (after reading some responses, I think it's still very relevant).

I just want to say that a lot of you guys are huge hypocrites. Several of you are agreeing that we should take the Best Player Available, specifically as it pertains to Trey Burke, but then you are also completely ignoring Ben McLemore. It doesn't make sense. Either you really believe we should ignore position needs and take the BPA, or you don't. Please make up your mind.

It's okay if you believe Burke is simply a much better player than McLemore. I personally would disagree, but you are obviously entitled to your own opinion. I'd love to spend our time debating who is the better player between the two. However, it appears that most of you have completely written off McLemore because you can't get over the fact that he plays SG and we just drafted our SG of the future in Beal. Somehow you are able to forget that we also have our PG in the future in Wall though.

Yes, backup PG is a big position of need for us. I'd go so far as to say it might be our biggest glaring hole right now. Maybe AJ Price is on par with other backup PGs in this league, but if the start of this season proved one thing, it's that our team is incapable of winning with Price running the show. It's a big problem, and I hope we address it (not necessarily in the draft though). Yes, Wall is likely going to average about 36 minutes per game, so in a basic sense, there's only 12 minutes per game available at PG for our backup, so it's hard to justify using our top 10 pick on a backup PG. It makes it easier to swallow if that player is also able to play some SG, or if that player is genuinely a great prospect, meaning that we should just pick the BPA and figure out how to distribute the talent/minutes sometime in the future.

But, it's clear that we also have a big weakness at our backup SG spot. I'm more than happy to let Cartier Martin fill that role, as it's clear we can bring him back for the minimum on a 1 year deal like we have in the past. He always gets ignored for the first 4 months of the season, then we finally let him see the court for the last month or two, and he lights it up. He has his weaknesses, especially defensively, but hey, so does Martell Webster, and we love him because he's uber efficient offensively and can stroke it from 3, right? Martin is actually an incredibly similar player in that respect, so I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back as the primary backup SG. But just because there are cheap alternative options at backup SG doesn't mean there aren't similar options for backup PG available. I mentioned Jarrett Jack earlier. He'll cost more in the range of $4-6 million per year for 3-4 years, and there will likely be a lot more competition from other teams to sign him, but if we can get him, I think he'd be a phenomenal fit. Or if we want to go the minimum salary route, there's a few guys I'd be happy to look at that could help us more than AJ Price, IMO.

But here's my main point: Ben McLemore is insanely good. I genuinely believe that he has real star potential, and would go so far as to say he can be the best player in this draft class, easily. Yes, he does a lot of the same things that Beal does, but is that a bad thing? Not at all! If we didn't draft Beal last year, I would hope that this board would be 100% on the McLemore bandwagon in this draft, because then he'd be the PERFECT fit for us. I get that we have Beal, and that certainly changes things, but it doesn't change the fact that McLemore is an elite talent and can provide a great benefit to this team (and all other 29 teams).

I think Beal probably averages about 34 minutes per game next season. That leaves 14 minutes per game backing up SG for McLemore. Similar issues to drafting Burke to be a backup PG, but similar solutions, IMO, to find additional minutes to help justify the pick. There's the possibility of a McLemore/Beal PG/SG lineup, although it's clear that while McLemore and Beal both have decent handles for a SG, they definitely leave a lot to be desired, and we could have issues with such a lineup, especially this coming season before they've had a chance to develop those skills (and I'd also accept the argument that we could be stunting their development if we force them to spend even more time on ball-handling and passing in order for those short stretches at PG instead of whatever other skills they could have been working on to improve their SG game).

So then there's the possibility of McLemore or Beal sliding over to SF for short stretches in games. Offensively, not only would we not have any issues with a Wall/Beal/McLemore lineup, they'd actually excel and potentially be a lethal combination. Seriously, just imagine it real quick. Beal and McLemore on the wings and in the corners with Wall attacking the hoop and distributing the ball? I'm salivating. I don't think anyone really disputes that. The potential issues arise on the defensive side of the ball. Beal or McLemore would have to defend the opposing team's SF. I'm not honestly sure which of them would be the ideal choice at the moment. They both seem to be very similarly sized, both height and wingspan-wise. That means they'd both leave plenty to be desired, size-wise, on the defensive end against SFs. But let's make sure we don't forget something real quick... they'd likely be replacing Martell Webster in those 12-16 minutes at SF. So yes, even if they're great offensively, so was Webster. But at the same time, even if they struggle defensively, so did Webster. So are we really hurting that much defensively, compared to how we'd be hurting defensively with if we didn't draft him, and instead had Webster there still instead? I say no.

Even if it's not ideal long-term, at least take the best player available, and find a way to make the minutes work, even if some sacrifices have to be made. As long as McLemore is legit, especially offensively, then his value is going to skyrocket. We can then trade him for a substantial package in order to get a better fit, position-wise. Imagine if we decided right now that we wanted to trade Beal. We could get a damn good player or prospect in return. The same could very possibly be true with McLemore. And furthermore, let's say McLemore turns out to be even better than Beal. Then we can go ahead and trade Beal instead, and just like that, we have an even better SG for the future than we would have with Beal. Gives us a lot of flexibility, and would force both players to really compete and bring their all in order to keep their minutes and reputation in shape.

[rockymac52]

Also real quick wanted to add, I saw someone mention earlier about 10 pages back (again, sorry!) that they had concerns about how McLemore would mesh with Beal on and off the court. I just wanted to say that that is absolutely ridiculous.

They grew up together and played on the same AAU team. Obviously it's AAU and they're both elite players, so clearly they could play out of position and still dominate, so I'm not trying to make that out to be more than it is, but I'm just saying they know each other and almost definitely get along quite well.

[verbal8]

Muhammad is Nick Young 2.0, I don't want anything to do with him.

He's a great deal more dynamic as an athlete, and isn't an idiot. Shabazz has elite scoring ability, a tremendous motor, and plays hard all game. That's not Nick Young at all.

If you've got issues with him as a player focused on scoring, and not filling the rest of the stat line, i can understand that, but he isn't anything like Young.

I think he is Al Thornton more than Nick Young, but I don't see him being a star in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Also real quick wanted to add, I saw someone mention earlier about 10 pages back (again, sorry!) that they had concerns about how McLemore would mesh with Beal on and off the court. I just wanted to say that that is absolutely ridiculous.

They grew up together and played on the same AAU team. Obviously it's AAU and they're both elite players, so clearly they could play out of position and still dominate, so I'm not trying to make that out to be more than it is, but I'm just saying they know each other and almost definitely get along quite well.

rockymac52, the position McLemore will be drafted is going to be so high that he's going to be counted on to start, and not to be a backup. I don't think McLemore is big enough to start at SF and he projects to be too good to bring off the bench, (but coming off the bench didn't seem to hurt James Harden's career or the Thunder.)

I think the Wizards can fill their backup SG needs with a round two pick of any number of players: Nate Wolters, Jamaal Franklin, Allen Crabbe, Carrick Felix, Brandon Paul, and Michael Snaer all come to mind.

[rockymac52]

Fun McLemore stat:

According to Synergy, there are only 3 players who are at or above the 90th percentile in both offensive PPP and defensive PPP:

1. Ryan Kelly (Duke)
Off: 92%
Def: 92%
Projected to be late 2nd round or undrafted

2. Bryce Cotton (Providence)
Off: 93%
Def: 94%
Returning to college for senior season (I believe)

3. Ben McLemore (kU)
Off: 93%
Def: 90%
Projected to be top 10, probably top 5 pick

Honorable mention:
Mike Muscala (Bucknell)
Off: 89%
Def: 90%
Projected to be late 1st round or early 2nd round pick


These aren't end-all be-all stats, obviously, and I'm sure there's some players who might be above the 80th percentile in both (although I'm sure it's a lot less than you expect), but it's telling. McLemore is an elite player, on both sides of the ball. He is, perhaps, the number one can't-miss prospect of this draft. I don't expect us to take him, even if he's somehow available at our pick, mostly because of his position, but I think that would be a huge mistake.

[verbal8]

I worry when I see Noel's body. It could mature to the likes of Garnett, but his offensive game isn't in the same universe as KG's. His upside is Tyson Chandler, I suppose, but I worry he could just as easily be an Amir Johnson, Ekpe Udoh.

I would guess Len will be similar to a young Okafor. Okafor probably should have gone about 7th in that draft.

[rockymac52]

Also real quick wanted to add, I saw someone mention earlier about 10 pages back (again, sorry!) that they had concerns about how McLemore would mesh with Beal on and off the court. I just wanted to say that that is absolutely ridiculous.

They grew up together and played on the same AAU team. Obviously it's AAU and they're both elite players, so clearly they could play out of position and still dominate, so I'm not trying to make that out to be more than it is, but I'm just saying they know each other and almost definitely get along quite well.

rockymac52, the position McLemore will be drafted is going to be so high that he's going to be counted on to start, and not to be a backup. I don't think McLemore is big enough to start at SF and he projects to be too good to bring off the bench, but that didn't seem to hurt James Harden's career or the Thunder.

I think the Wizards can fill their backup SG needs with a round two pick of any number of players: Nate Wolters, Jamaal Franklin, Allen Crabbe, Carrick Felix, Brandon Paul, and Michael Snaer all come to mind.

I don't necessarily disagree with that statement, I'm just saying it's flawed. If we can average over 26 minutes per game as a rookie, and possibly more, then I don't care if he technically starts the game or not. I care about how many of the standard 48 minutes he's going to be on the court, producing. There's something to be said about the end of the game, because obviously you want your best 5 players on the court, and it would be a shame if one of our top 3 players couldn't be on the court when it mattered the most because there wasn't a position for him, however, I'm saying I don't think this is the case. It all hinges on his ability to play SF (or Beal's ability to do so, theoretically). As long as one of them can play SF and at least get by defensively for short stretches, then there's no problem. And remember all they have to do is be as good defensively as Martell Webster would be, theoretically.

And CCJ, I agree that there's a number of other options late in this draft, or in free agency, that could fill our backup SG needs, but I also think that's the case for literally every other position. In fact, I think I feel better about the crop of 2nd round PGs and big men than I do about the wings, but I'll admit I haven't done my due diligence on the late pick wings as much as I have for the other positions, so I could be wrong. But my point is that there's lots of big men that should be available late that I love, and a few PGs who I like as well, so while your statement might be true, it doesn't really sway me against picking McLemore early.

[fishercob]

I worry when I see Noel's body. It could mature to the likes of Garnett, but his offensive game isn't in the same universe as KG's. His upside is Tyson Chandler, I suppose, but I worry he could just as easily be an Amir Johnson, Ekpe Udoh.

I would guess Len will be similar to a young Okafor. Okafor probably should have gone about 7th in that draft.

I don't see it. Okafor is 3 inches shorter than Len and was 22 at the start of his rookie year.

[rockymac52]

And there's also something to be said for a starting caliber player coming off the bench. Look at Ginobili, Harden, and Martin. It just makes sense. If you're good enough to start, and be a good starter, then it follows that when you come off the bench and get to play against the other team's backups, you're going to be that much more productive.

[Dat2U]

Fun McLemore stat:

According to Synergy, there are only 3 players who are at or above the 90th percentile in both offensive PPP and defensive PPP:

1. Ryan Kelly (Duke)
Off: 92%
Def: 92%
Projected to be late 2nd round or undrafted

2. Bryce Cotton (Providence)
Off: 93%
Def: 94%
Returning to college for senior season (I believe)

3. Ben McLemore (kU)
Off: 93%
Def: 90%
Projected to be top 10, probably top 5 pick

Honorable mention:
Mike Muscala (Bucknell)
Off: 89%
Def: 90%
Projected to be late 1st round or early 2nd round pick


These aren't end-all be-all stats, obviously, and I'm sure there's some players who might be above the 80th percentile in both (although I'm sure it's a lot less than you expect), but it's telling. McLemore is an elite player, on both sides of the ball. He is, perhaps, the number one can't-miss prospect of this draft. I don't expect us to take him, even if he's somehow available at our pick, mostly because of his position, but I think that would be a huge mistake.

These stats are nice but means absolutely nothing. Projecting NBA success is not just numbers based. There are so many different aspects one must take into consideration. Age, class, athleticism, skill-set relative to position, size relative to position, b-ball awareness/IQ & production. McLemore may look good from a production/efficiency aspect but as a 20 yr old frosh with extremely limited handles for G he's not as clear cut prospect as many suggest. In fact, he looks a lot like Wesley Johnson who Minnesota tried to turn into a 2. I remember how everyone fell in love with Wesley's Len Bias like jumper and smooth play. I'm almost certain McLemore will be a major disappointment if he's drafted too high.

[Dat2U]

Trade the pick, trade the pick, trade the pick.

Ideally, trade the pick for a 2014 selection.

This draft reminds me so much of the 2000 draft with Kenyon Martin. Noel is the default number #1 pick who's injured and probably wouldn't be a #1 pick in most drafts. Nothing else is clear cut. I think the draft is filled with role players or guys that may develop into decent role players in 2/3 years. No stars. A lot of potential busts. Not a ton of starting quality talent either.

Best bet is to just trade the pick!

[theboomking]

These stats are nice but means absolutely nothing. Projecting NBA success is not just numbers based. There are so many different aspects one must take into consideration. Age, class, athleticism, skill-set relative to position, size relative to position, b-ball awareness/IQ & production. McLemore may look good from a production/efficiency aspect but as a 20 yr old frosh with extremely limited handles for G he's not as clear cut prospect as many suggest. In fact, he looks a lot like Wesley Johnson who Minnesota tried to turn into a 2. I remember how everyone fell in love with Wesley's Len Bias like jumper and smooth play. I'm almost certain McLemore will be a major disappointment if he's drafted too high.

In before Payitforward counters that all important information about basketball can be distilled from stats.

[DCsOwn]

Did the coin toss not take place today?

[truwizfan4evr]

Did the coin toss not take place today?

Detroit won the series vs wizards so we as of now we have the seventh pick.

[sfam]

Did the coin toss not take place today?

Detroit won the series vs wizards so we as of now we have the seventh pick.

Really? I heard it was decided by a coin toss.

[The Consiglieri]

It is a coin toss. I've seen various posts covering it. I did see that Cleveland won it's coin toss last year on the 27th or so of april, a full week from now. Are we sur that coin toss was today?

[DCZards]

I'm with you rockymac. If i'm picking second and Noel is gone I'm taking McLemore. I agree he's the closest thing to a can't miss. He might turn out to be a better pick than Noel.