Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Isn't it strange that an elite physical talent PF lacking skill in Noel is the 1st pick, but an elite skill PF lacking physical talent in McDermott is 2nd round? McDermott is black swan Noel. NBA teams have historically learned the hard way about treating athleticism and length as more important than skill...

+1

[stevemcqueen1]

While I don't disagree with those who say that coaching and the Zards mgt. deserves some of the blame for lack of development of Ves, Seraphin and Singleton, I'm solidly in the camp of those who argue that a player's development/improvement is more on them than it is on the team or coaches.

Good organizations draft well even when they pick late because they know how to develop raw talent. Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard were totally raw talents when they were picked. Kenneth Faried is still very raw. But their organizations are smart and knew what they had to do to develop those players and see that they developed confidence and thrived. Kawhi Leonard in particular is interesting--he dramatically improved as a shooter once he saw major minutes with the Spurs, his confidence level went through the roof. Vesely has gotten dramatically WORSE at shooting since he's come here. He actually shot mid range jumpers in Serbia and played SF overseas! Now he's terrified to shoot from outside four or five feet and has no confidence and that is death to any shooter. You can blame management for that, especially Wittman. Wittman yanking him and then burying him for a month after he missed a shot was pretty much the worst thing a coach could do. A good coach does not focus on makes and misses for any player, much less one who is struggling to find rhythm and confidence. He did it with Singleton too, who actually came into the league with solid range out past 17 feet.

Wittman just doesn't know how to coach raw young players. He doesn't know how to help big men learn to shoot. He doesn't have the patience nor the willingness to do what it takes to develop a raw young player. He's the coach who made Kevin Love stop taking 3s. He's just not very bright nor forward thinking.

Player development should be a top priority for any coaching staff and any organization. The person doing the drafting should have clear plan for how to develop X player and how to get him a role for the team before he drafts him. Otherwise that player will probably bust. We fired Flip soon after we drafted Ves and Singleton and I think Wittman had no idea what the plan for those two was so he just stopped using them once he got a few veterans to play instead.

And I definitely don't want the Zards to make a draft day decision--like picking over Zeller over Len--because of the lack of development of Ves, Seraphin and Singleton. Len has way more upside than Zeller, imo, and I say we take our chances that he can realize that potential in a Zards uni.

Perhaps Len has way more upside than Zeller. But Len also has a long way to go before he's even as good as Zeller is today. Focusing on Len's abstract upside based on X, Y, and Z measurements his how you lose sight of the forest through the trees. Zeller is simply a much better basketball player than Len and has been since day one.

And Len isn't an assertive player either. He's not going to make his own hay and force Wittman to use him like far more aggressive and confident players like Zeller and Porter and Bennett would.

If Zeller was a total stiff, then upside alone might be enough to sway me in favor of Len. But Zeller is a terrific athlete for his position, is a legit 6'11-7' tall, and has a great deal of upside too.

I know some folks are down on McLemore, but if I'm picking second he's my guy. I think he has the potential to be an all-star. While the Zards don't need a starting shooting guard, McLemore may be too good to pass up, imo.

Yeah you have to take McLemore second because he's the consensus second pick. I think every GM in the league probably has him first or second with Noel in the other spot. Ignoring the consensus BPA to reach for someone else is usually a really bad idea. But that doesn't mean I'd feel good about picking McLemore second. First, he's not a starter for us, so there is that. Second, he's got some intangible and age question marks that should give teams pause. He's a passive player and he's a 21 year old freshman who did nothing before this season. I was a senior in college and only a few credit hours from earning my degree when I was his age. Third, he's got skill set deficiencies. He's not a creative ball handler with a bunch of set up moves, he has some problems changing directions and pace, doesn't have a hesitation game, doesn't take the ball all of the way to the rim, can't attack multiple defenders with his dribble.

He's a freakish athletic talent with a perfect shot yet somehow he just isn't a can't miss player. Like OJ Mayo. I think he'll under perform for his draft slot just like Mayo did. And I think the team that takes the "low upside" big man in Zeller instead of McLemore will be better off, just like Minnesota was when they traded Mayo to Memphis for Kevin Love.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

They weren't coming off a torn ACL in February though. Barbosa isn't going to be healthy by October, much less this summer when we need to be building our core for next year. He might not even see the court for any team until after the AS break next season. If he were healthy, I'd be for bringing him in as the third guard. But if he were healthy, he'd probably still be in Boston. We can't really afford to spend money and earmark a rotation spot to bring in a new player who is currently severely injured.

Feb to Oct is 8 months. I don't know if that's impossible. In any case, his injury is what could make him signable for the Wizards at the vet min, and if he works out he's really a perfect addition to our backcourt.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Jeez. I didn't know Noel also had a serious knee injury in high school.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... rlens-Noel

[stevemcqueen1]

Isn't it strange that an elite physical talent PF lacking skill in Noel is the 1st pick, but an elite skill PF lacking physical talent in McDermott is 2nd round? McDermott is black swan Noel. NBA teams have historically learned the hard way about treating athleticism and length as more important than skill...

It's true that teams have failed terrible drafting size and athleticism over skill. Michael Olowokandi and Robert Traylor got picked ahead of Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce in 1998. Though to be fair, Dirk had elite size. And surely it seems like we'd have been better of drafting Klay Thompson in 2011 than Vesely.

But teams have also failed miserably when valuing skill over size and/or athleticism. Charlotte would have been way better off drafting Rudy Gay than Adam Morrison in 2006. And every team except Houston would have been far better off taking Amar'e Stoudemire in 2002, especially the ones who took Mike Dunleavy and Drew Gooden third and fourth...

And teams have enjoyed massive success valuing size and athleticism over skill. Orlando was way better off drafting Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor in 2004. Ditto Chicago for picking Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley in 2008, and OKC for picking Russell Westbrook over everyone else that same year.

Skills can be taught and developed (in good organizations). Size and athleticism can't. That's the thought that motivates the selections. Another thought is that you have to get a franchise player with a top three pick, or else there will be a stain on that decision for years. All but a few star players in the league have some elite physical attribute(s), so if you're drafting a player who doesn't, chances are remote he eventually becomes a star.

You have to find the right balance in your approach. You can't undervalue athleticism just like you can't undervalue tangible skills. If you draft a raw talent, you need to have a plan for how to teach him and develop him.

[DCZards]

They weren't coming off a torn ACL in February though. Barbosa isn't going to be healthy by October, much less this summer when we need to be building our core for next year. He might not even see the court for any team until after the AS break next season. If he were healthy, I'd be for bringing him in as the third guard. But if he were healthy, he'd probably still be in Boston. We can't really afford to spend money and earmark a rotation spot to bring in a new player who is currently severely injured.

I agree that a lot of it will have to do with Barbosa's health. I don't know what the timeframe is for him to be recovered and back playing full-time. However, if he's healthy I like both Barbosa's skillset and the vet experience he brings to a backcourt that features Wall and Beal. He certainly would be a major upgrade over Martin.

[nate33]

I would consider Okafor and our #1 for Batum and Matthews. Don't think I'd do it, but I'd consider it. That's about the only trade I see looking at Portland's roster.

Batum isn't much better than Webster and will cost 2-3 times as much. Why give up a lotto pick for that?

[DCZards]

Wittman just doesn't know how to coach raw young players. He doesn't know how to help big men learn to shoot. He doesn't have the patience nor the willingness to do what it takes to develop a raw young player. He's the coach who made Kevin Love stop taking 3s. He's just not very bright nor forward thinking.

We fired Flip soon after we drafted Ves and Singleton and I think Wittman had no idea what the plan for those two was so he just stopped using them once he got a few veterans to play instead.

I think you're putting too much of the responsibility for the development of young players and the lack of development of a player like Ves on the head coach--in this case Wittman. I agree that Wittman was probably too impatient with Ves and didn't give either Ves or Singleton the minutes they needed to develop. I wanted to see both of them play more as well. But some of it has to be put on the players. You can't let them off their hook by saying the coach destroyed their confidence. If they played better when they did get an opportunity they would have earned more time. It was Ves, not Wittman, shooting those bricks from the field and from the free throw line.

Perhaps Len has way more upside than Zeller. But Len also has a long way to go before he's even as good as Zeller is today. Focusing on Len's abstract upside based on X, Y, and Z measurements his how you lose sight of the forest through the trees. Zeller is simply a much better basketball player than Len and has been since day one.

And Len isn't an assertive player either. He's not going to make his own hay and force Wittman to use him like far more aggressive and confident players like Zeller and Porter and Bennett would..

I'm still taking what I consider Len's superior upside over the fact that Zeller is currently a more skilled player and had a better college career. And its premature, imo, to suggest that the relationship between Witt and Len is going to be a problem. I don't think we know enough about either man to come to that conclusion...or to use that as a reason to not draft Len.

First, he's not a starter for us, so there is that. Second, he's got some intangible and age question marks that should give teams pause. He's a passive player and he's a 21 year old freshman who did nothing before this season. I was a senior in college and only a few credit hours from earning my degree when I was his age. Third, he's got skill set deficiencies. He's not a creative ball handler with a bunch of set up moves, he has some problems changing directions and pace, doesn't have a hesitation game, doesn't take the ball all of the way to the rim, can't attack multiple defenders with his dribble.

I'm not all that bothered by McLemore's age. While you may have been a college senior at 21, from what I know about McLemore, I suspect he's from a very different socioeconomic--and educational--background than you. And what player after one-year in college doesn't still have skillset deficiencies? I consider passivity one of McLemore's deficiencies---and I also think it's a deficiency that is easily overcome.

There's a reason that most scouts, GMs, draft experts, etc., have McLemore consistently rated second in the draft, despite the well-known deficiencies you point out. (They also know his age.) It's because his ceiling is extremely high. If I'm the Zards drafting second I take McLemore because he's the BPA...and then figure it out after that.

[nate33]

Vesely had way more opportunity as a rookie than he deserved. He shot nothing but bricks from outside 3 feet then too. I don't see how anybody can blame Wittman. Wittman simply can't leave the guy out there on the floor when he's a liability at both ends of the court, not when we were actually trying to win games.

Go look at his game log. It wasn't like Wittman consistently had a quick hook. Vesely had plenty of DNP-CD's, but when Wittman let him on the floor, he usually played 10-20 minutes as any backup big should. (He had a few 3-4 minute outings, but those were probably just garbage time minutes.) I think this idea that Wittman destroyed Vesely's confidence is revisionist history. Everyone wants a scapegoat. The scapegoat here should be Vesely, not Wittman.

[The Consiglieri]

...Wittman is not a talent developer. Beal and Wall are the only young players thriving under him. Vesely, Seraphin, and Singleton each dramatically regressed this year....

You mean Wittman is not a miracle worker.

The mistakes Seraphin commits over and over, and his low rebounding skills, are on him not coaching. Singleton never gave any reason to think he had much upside; he was a mediocre college player and not particularly young either -- terrible pick.

As to Vesely, are you really going to put his 'lack of development' on the shoulders of the head coach?

Guys with talent and work ethic get better in their early 20s through about 24-25. The effect of their coaches on that is marginal at best.

My thoughts too. As much as I loathe this organization, just who among the failures that we drafted have shined elsewhere? It's kind of like Snyderatto, none of the dregs and busts they drafted ever amounted to much of anything outside of D.C. (w/very few exceptions). Im not sold that development is the issue though it might be yet another issue if we ever drafted someone who had the talent but needed the development of said talent.

[The Consiglieri]

That would be me that was posting endlessly about Vucevic

CJM moving the the board. Went from 14th to 9th in the mock draft machine.

Wait until he gets to workout for people and they see him healthy.

I would draft CJM before I would draft Shabazz

I also would take CJM before Shabazz. I wish we could pull a move to add a pick and draft CJM.

I don't think moving down will be needed anymore. I think CJM is going to be moving up.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... dy-For-NBA

Just like VO moved up and Otto moved up. Two other of my early targets.
I also expected Shabazz to drop. He did.
I said Smart wasn't all that and he decided to drop out to stay in school.
I said stay away from Isaiah Austin, he dropped. He should stay in school another year. He has some talent.
Zeller may not drop, but he should.

The next one I expect to move up is Muscala. I just don't see how he would go 7th in the 2nd. That would be such a steal. He and Erik Murphy are going to be great value in the 2nd, but I guess its because they are seniors.

Dieng and Withey have moved up already. Not sure how much more they will or not. I wanted us to get one of them with a late first we acquired in a trade down were we could get CJM and one of them. Doesn't look like that is possible anymore. If we were to add another first, its going to have to come in a trade.

So while I have posted how much I liked CJM, Otto and VO early on, we may only get one good shot at this in the first and if I had to do that today, I would take "LEN" If we don't get Len, we need to add Dieng or Withey or even Plumlee.

I had my questions about Len early on, but what I saw of him in the NIT changed that. I think he is legit. I would have no problem going into a game with Len matched against Noel or any of the other centers in this class. And in a year or two, I think he can anchor a team defensively against a Hibbert or Noah or Varejao.

We have to go up against Indy and NY in the coming years. Also, someone in the East may land Noel. We are in the East. You want a tall strong athletic center and I think Len will be that and we are missing that. That is the area of biggest need on this team right now. Otto would be nice, but Trevor A and Webster are both 26/27. CJM would be really nice, but we have Beal and we can pick up a second guard in other ways.

We need a tall athletic strong young center. Nene and Okafor are getting old. Kevin S and Ves are not the answer.

Run screaming w/your hair on fire away from that Plumlee idea. I can see the rationale for that. Can't see it for throwing the pick away for nothing. Plumlee would stun me if he was anything more than the last guy on the bench.

[payitforward]

While I don't disagree with those who say that coaching and the Zards mgt. deserves some of the blame for lack of development of Ves, Seraphin and Singleton, I'm solidly in the camp of those who argue that a player's development/improvement is more on them than it is on the team or coaches.

Good organizations draft well even when they pick late because they know how to develop raw talent. Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard were totally raw talents when they were picked. Kenneth Faried is still very raw.

What? Leonard was not raw in the slightest. And Faried played 4 years of college ball; he's not even a little bit raw.

Good organizations draft well even when they pick late because they pick better players! They also sign better players in FA, tend to get the round 2 choices who can play, and so forth.

Keep in mind what that bumbling fool who is our GM said just this last October: "how long do most round 2 players stay in the league anyway? 3 years?" I guess he thinks that picking #32 in a deep draft, he should get the average of all players picked 31-60 in all drafts?

[popper]

I take umbrage with those who have labeled Vesely a bricklayer. Journeymen Masons' lay a 1,000 brick a day and Vesely is nowhere near that sort of production.

[theboomking]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... ec17ed0000

John sounds pretty cleary like he wants the pick traded for a vet. I hope that doesn't happen.

As far as Len vs Zeller, Zeller has appeared to struggle against length and that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his upside. On the flip side of the equation, Len had some of his bigger performances against other big name big men, and has ideal height/length.

I also am of the opinion that our board is undervaluing McLemore. People talk as if it is a given that he would wind up behind Beal on the depth chart and could never start for our team. While I do think that Beal will likely wind up better than McLemore, especially looking at their collegiate block/rebound/steal stats, it is not a given. It did not look any more like we could run our offense through Beal than we would through McLemore. McLemore may wind up being a significantly better shooter than Beal and is a very good athlete. In any case, if McLemore is on the board, you either choose him, trade him for a veteran, or trade down for Len and assets.

[DCZards]

I also am of the opinion that our board is undervaluing McLemore.....In any case, if McLemore is on the board, you either choose him, trade him for a veteran, or trade down for Len and assets.

You nailed it boom.

[Ruzious]

While I don't disagree with those who say that coaching and the Zards mgt. deserves some of the blame for lack of development of Ves, Seraphin and Singleton, I'm solidly in the camp of those who argue that a player's development/improvement is more on them than it is on the team or coaches.

Good organizations draft well even when they pick late because they know how to develop raw talent. Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard were totally raw talents when they were picked. Kenneth Faried is still very raw.

What? Leonard was not raw in the slightest. And Faried played 4 years of college ball; he's not even a little bit raw.

Good organizations draft well even when they pick late because they pick better players! They also sign better players in FA, tend to get the round 2 choices who can play, and so forth.

Keep in mind what that bumbling fool who is our GM said just this last October: "how long do most round 2 players stay in the league anyway? 3 years?" I guess he thinks that picking #32 in a deep draft, he should get the average of all players picked 31-60 in all drafts?

Leonard showed great rebounding and defensive abilities at San Diego State, but when a sophomore at a school like that puts up 48% 2 point shooting, 29 3 pt shooting %, and wasn't particularly good at getting to the foul line, I think you're full of something foul smelling if you say he would have been as efficient a scorer with any NBA team as he was with San Antonio.

It's not a one or the other situation. Both picking players and developing players are vital to an organization's success.

[Rafael122]

So, depending on if we grab another first, where is is and who is their. would you guys be ok with taking another guard in the first round, I know some people would be like, no we have john and beal why take another guard in the first round. But, our guards depth is **** and the only real way to fix it and not over pay someone, is to spend a first round pick on a good guard or to get lucky in the second round. I think if we get a second first we should use it to adress guard depth or center depth. I think it would come down to who is left and what pick we grab. Or even if we loose out on the bigs with our first pick i would not be opposed to taking a guard or trading back for two picks.

On another note, i really like Adreian Payne as a second round pick. He reminds me of a young raw okafur. He rebounds, he has good defensive up side, and offensive potential.

If we grab another first, I would do Bennett/CJ with both first round picks. Re-sign Price and Temple (he'll be the 5th guard which is perfect for him) and you can have Price and CJ coming off the bench and adding some much needed scoring punch.

I'd take Bennett with our higher pick. The problem is though, you pick a guy that high and where is he going to play? It looks like he's more suited for the 3 spot, but Ariza is coming back, and Webster might get re-signed. If you play him at the 4, you would have to split minutes between Nene, Bennett, Booker, Singleton and Vesely.

Someone has to get traded out of these 4: Vesely, Booker, Singleton and Seraphin.

[Benjammin]

Seriously Rafey? You're concerned about minutes for Vesely, Booker, Singleton, and Seraphin? When healthy Booker is the only one of those four who has busted a grape in the Association. The last concern should be worrying about getting minutes for bad players. You could cut Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin and pick up guys from the d league and overseas and not miss much.

[nate33]

Someone has to get traded out of these 4: Vesely, Booker, Singleton and Seraphin.

As far as I'm concerned, Vesely and Singleton are already off the team. I see no way they factor into our future. The sooner they're gone, the better. They shouldn't even be a consideration when it comes time to make a pick.

Booker is a much better player when healthy, but his health is such a problem that you can't really rely on him either. I have no problems keeping him around on a cheap contract as a 10th or 11th man to help when he's healthy, but he's not someone I consider when making future roster decisions either.

Seraphin is the guy I can't quite figure out. He has been a pretty awful player for us so far, but I can't just ignore the fact that he's big, agile, and has skills. I'm not ready to write him off just yet.

[No-Man]

This Livio Jean-Charles guy just destroyed it at the Nike Hoop Summit, barely 19 years old, insane lenght for the SF spot, great motor, crushes the boards... he reminds a lot of Kawhi Leonard.

Check the game if you cn, if he's still there in the 2nd round... we've got to grab him.