Jays need to go 84-54 the rest of the way to match 2012 WCs

Post #1 » by **Double Helix** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 10:52 pm

Baltimore and Texas both had 93 wins last year in the Wild Card race. The Jays now have to go 84 and 54 .(.608) winning % the rest of the way to reach that total.

I hope to update the thread periodicaly, and especially if things start to improve soon. The poll was from before but feel free to vote if you still want to.

Randle McMurphy · Post #2 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 10:58 pm

Sure. Worse teams with less talent have done that than this one.

Hoopstarr · Post #3 » by **Hoopstarr** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:04 pm

Yes. It's baseball. I can point to many, many 90 win teams that were 4 games under at this point. The 2009 WS champion Yankees started 9-10 and won 103 games.

s e n s i · Post #4 » by **s e n s i** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:05 pm

the math is just not adding up there no matter how many times i try

if 93 wins gets us a WC spot, then we'd need to go 86-58 the rest of the way, where i'd still say yes.

also, i still don't know how anyone can come to the conclusion that we've been "badly managed". gibbons has made as competent decisions as you'd want from a skipper.

s e n s i · Post #5 » by **s e n s i** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:08 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:Yes. It's baseball. I can point to many, many 90 win teams that were 4 games under at this point. The 2009 WS champion Yankees started 9-10 and won 103 games.

futhermore, you could also point to many, many 81 or less win teams that were 4 games above at this point. the jays look like crap but the baseball season is just too damn long to write off any team at this juncture.

Hoopstarr · Post #6 » by **Hoopstarr** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:12 pm

The 2001 As that won 102 games started 8-18.

If this team fails to win 90 games, it'll be because they weren't good enough to do that to start with (which was my opinion before the season), not because of a 7-11 start.

kwamebargnani · Post #7 » by **kwamebargnani** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:13 pm

I'm thinking 85 wins

The_Hater · Post #8 » by **The_Hater** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:51 pm

DH, I luv ya man but I absolutely hate threads asking questions like this one.

Michael Bradley · Post #9 » by **Michael Bradley** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:53 pm

What people need to realize about baseball is that a 95 win team could go 7-11 in any stretch during the season. A team could start 10-1 and then go 7-11 in their next 18 games. Or a team that is 40-20 after 60 games can have a bad 18 game stretch after that. It's a long season that is full of slumps, hot streaks, etc.

As mentioned, if the Jays don't win 90+ games this year, it won't be because of the 7-11 start. It will be because they were not good enough, for whatever reason, to do it.

Just for reference, were fans super excited and expecting World Series greatness in 2009 when the Jays started 23-12? I don't recall what the forum was like at that time.

PimpHandStrong · Post #10 » by **PimpHandStrong** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 12:24 am

Are the Jays only playing 158 games this year?

LLJ · Post #11 » by **LLJ** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 12:32 am

Anything can happen in such a long season, but I'm worried about other teams running away with the division while the Jays waste time to get their collective **** together.

Randle McMurphy · Post #12 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 12:37 am

Michael Bradley wrote:Just for reference, were fans super excited and expecting World Series greatness in 2009 when the Jays started 23-12? I don't recall what the forum was like at that time.

27-14. That was our high water mark that year. Pretty sure that was our high water mark this century as well. I remember people being pretty excited at the time among the Jays fanbase, but nobody was expecting it to keep up realistically. I certainly wasn't anyway. And then we lost nine straight games in horrible fashion (as if there is any other way to lose nine straight: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams ... ores.shtml).

s e n s i · Post #13 » by **s e n s i** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 1:02 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:Just for reference, were fans super excited and expecting World Series greatness in 2009 when the Jays started 23-12? I don't recall what the forum was like at that time.

27-14. That was our high water mark that year. Pretty sure that was our high water mark this century as well. I remember people being pretty excited at the time among the Jays fanbase, but nobody was expecting it to keep up realistically. I certainly wasn't anyway. And then we lost nine straight games in horrible fashion (as if there is any other way to lose nine straight: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams ... ores.shtml).

we had the best record in the AL in the 2nd week of may that season, but flipping through some series threads that year, it didn't seem like anyone was seriously expecting the success to continue all season and into the playoffs (though the board wasn't even half as active as it is now). people just enjoyed it while it lasted. of course like you mention it took all of a week and a half for reality to really set in, but i don't recall there being any "this is the year" talk prior to that skid, despite the gaudy win total. fun times for sure though.

J-Roc · Post #14 » by **J-Roc** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 1:33 am

Michael Bradley wrote:What people need to realize about baseball is that a 95 win team could go 7-11 in any stretch during the season. A team could start 10-1 and then go 7-11 in their next 18 games. Or a team that is 40-20 after 60 games can have a bad 18 game stretch after that. It's a long season that is full of slumps, hot streaks, etc.

As mentioned, if the Jays don't win 90+ games this year, it won't be because of the 7-11 start. It will be because they were not good enough, for whatever reason, to do it.

Yep, that's basically it, in terms of the question in the OP.

But as for this particular team, you really have to ask yourself if the likes of Rasmus, JPA, Lind, Encarnacion can really be counted on to turn things around. We might have the pitching, but our hitting can make the opposition look like Cy Young winners.

Michael Bradley · Post #15 » by **Michael Bradley** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:12 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:Just for reference, were fans super excited and expecting World Series greatness in 2009 when the Jays started 23-12? I don't recall what the forum was like at that time.

27-14. That was our high water mark that year. Pretty sure that was our high water mark this century as well. I remember people being pretty excited at the time among the Jays fanbase, but nobody was expecting it to keep up realistically. I certainly wasn't anyway. And then we lost nine straight games in horrible fashion (as if there is any other way to lose nine straight: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams ... ores.shtml).

I thought for sure the Jays were better than 13 games over at one point in 2006, but it appears the highest they got was 12 games over .500 that year (same with 2008). It appears their best "over .500" stretch since 1993 was 14 games (in 1998 and 1999). That's pretty depressing.

RapsFanInVA · Post #16 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:16 am

We're about to pull a 2012 Marlins in May

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2012.shtml

8-14 in April, then ended May at 31-23. DON'T PANAC!

Post #17 » by **Double Helix** » Sat Apr 27, 2013 5:03 am

Updated estimated remaining record for wild card race as of April 28th. I'm hoping to take this away from the original poll concept and make into more of a weekly watch type of thing.

I'm hoping they go on a roll soon so that the %s fall back to 55% and they can settle into that kind of pace.

MikeM · Post #18 » by **MikeM** » Sat Apr 27, 2013 5:51 am

I don't see how a team that approaches hitting the way we do can ever be consistently successful. Guys like JPA and Colby have taken their approaches to a whole new level of ridiculousness.

RINSE · Post #19 » by **RINSE** » Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:20 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:The 2001 As that won 102 games started 8-18.

If this team fails to win 90 games, it'll be because they weren't good enough to do that to start with (which was my opinion before the season), not because of a 7-11 start.

Isnt that the team that won over 20 in a row? lol

Marmoset · Post #20 » by **Marmoset** » Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:20 pm

The 1989 Blue Jays famously (or infamously) started 12-24, at which time Jimy Williams was fired and Cito Gaston took over. They played 0.611 ball from that point on and won the division by two games.

This year's Jays obviously aren't in those depths even with their struggles. I think it adds to the suggestion that it's far from too late for this team. But, I think that the various historical cases we can dig up suggest that the current trend can continue for about 2-3 weeks before the team's chances of rebounding to make the playoffs become slim. It's easy to say the team is just having a bad start and nobody should panic, but as some point the math and statistics will say otherwise. It's not there yet.

That said, this team is painful to watch so far this year. It's really a shame, there was so much interest and excitement and it's disappearing quickly.

Can the Jays win 60% of their games the rest of the year?