2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs?

[pancakes3]

If Wall/Beal are healthy we will make the playoffs, and be a reasonably high seed on top of that(like 5 or 6).

I don't think that'd be enough. You'd need at least a healthy Nene too, as well as crossing your fingers that Webster-Riza sustain their career highs in 3p% - career highs by a large margin.

[Dat2U]

You mean rather than three-pitch strikeouts?

Vesely was unquestionably a 3-pitch strikeout, but I don't want to overstate EG's suckiness in the draft. Most of his other first round picks have at least been singles. Booker and Seraphin are solid for their draft position, as were Young and McGee.

Unfortunately, we need a couple of doubles and triples. We need guys like Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried, Ty Lawson, Nikola Vucevic, Larry Sanders, Taj Gibson and Nicolas Batum. I'm not expecting home runs like Roy Hibbert at #18, Paul George at #10 or Chandler Parsons at #38, but we need to find some rock solid starters with picks in the teens. Doubles and triples, not singles.

Hell, Ernie doesn't even hit singles consistently anymore. I guess drafting Booker is a single, but that's about it. Seraphin has been absolutely terrible despite the # of minutes played. I can't say he's been a good pick. Young was probably about avg & McGee was above average.

[spaceman_E]

Hate to state the obvious, but if we took Faried or Kawhi, we wouldn't have been in the position to draft Beal. Unless they didn't make our team any better. That's the silver lining to drafting Vesely.

Then go back a year further and give us Wall/Steph Curry/Kawhi/Drummond

[doclinkin]

You mean rather than three-pitch strikeouts?

Vesely was unquestionably a 3-pitch strikeout, but I don't want to overstate EG's suckiness in the draft. Most of his other first round picks have at least been singles. Booker and Seraphin are solid for their draft position, as were Young and McGee.

Unfortunately, we need a couple of doubles and triples. We need guys like Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried, Ty Lawson, Nikola Vucevic, Larry Sanders, Taj Gibson and Nicolas Batum. I'm not expecting home runs like Roy Hibbert at #18, Paul George at #10 or Chandler Parsons at #38, but we need to find some rock solid starters with picks in the teens. Doubles and triples, not singles.

Ouch ouch ouch ouch. What's funny is with the exception of Paul George I had every single one of those players tabbed as a probable success and looked at as a likely trade-down target:

Klay Thompson: undervalued because of a single marijuana incident, son of NBA player, showed as efficient with good games against tough competition. Nice secondary (non-scoring) stats. Looked the part, passed the eye-test: smooth, in the right place at the right time, one or two NBA calibre plays per game.

Faried I had radio-tagged two years before, had my doubts due to small conference plus he started out skinny, but he put up great numbers against the few ranked teams he faced, and the dude swole up by his final year.

Vucevic was the son of two pro players in Europe and had constantly high rebounding totals and a good balanced fundamentally sound game with a bit of finesse. Standard Euro-fundamentals, plus a track record of interior success against big time competition.

Lawson put up insane numbers, really unbelievable numbers. I did not believe the numbers, but was willing to take him on a trade down and let him prove me wrong. And his speed was unquestionable.

Sanders projected to be a good tough defensive player, and if I recall, his athletic testing was better than expected, proved likely to have the right size and talent level to compete. Worth a late round flier with an extra pick.

Taj Gibson was a teammate of Nick Young, how I saw him first. He was ridiculously consistent and the more important player on the team than Nick. Undersized but a capable rebounder and shotblocker and stat filler, showing he knew how to use 100% of whatever he had to make a difference.

Hibbert went one pick before our selection (#17, McGee was #18) so no complaints there. But I wanted him, seeing his remarkable and constant progression from a complete spaz as a freshman to a polished and reliable player by senior year. He was my pick that year at our likely draft slot. Oh well.

Chandler Parsons had something like 3 last second 3 pt game winners in his college career. Went from spoiled brat wannabe star to reliable no ego roleplayer. Looked to me like the next Big Shot Bob. Of course he ended up in Houston.

Batum I had to trust the reports, so can't count him in the win column. I have no metric for converting from French league stats. But he was long and if inefficient offensively had nice numbers everywhere else, rebounding passing, etc. And his unselfish aspect plus defense seemed like a nice fit next to Gil et al. I figured we could trade back to get him and Mario Chalmers (most important guard on a championship team, clutch 3 pt shooter, defensive back-up for Gil) or JR Giddens (a miss, who I liked due to inflated rebounding numbers in the Mountain West, plus good blocks and steals numbers I think).

Not touting my genius -- this time-- just saying the players are ALWAYS there and usually evident and every year I know if it were me picking I'd do better trading down and picking two than trying to outsmart everybody with an unpolished megatalent higher up in the draft.

For doubles and triples, man I'm your Honus Wagner.

[montestewart]

^
Translation: EG is not your Honus Wagner.

Get in there, doclinkin. Make something happen! I'll even take a walk, steal, score on an error.

[noworriesinmd]

Just a random rant of why I hate EG so much. The one team that we all think is a laughing stock. The one owner that we all think is horrible....might be considered a genius in 5 years.

The BOBCATs, in next year's HISTORIC draft, could have 3-4 picks in the first half of next year's draft.

Say what you will about MJ, that is a pretty amazing feat and it reeks of incredible timing. Things need to go their way in this draft, but if the balls bounce properly, we will be talking about the Bobcats you years!

The Wizards are going to be good next year and miss out on franchise changing talents.

I love that John Wall wants to win. I get that we have to change our culture, but it is stupid to "cut off your nose to spite your face". Tanking for one more year could make us real contenders. Instead of looking at the "here and now", we need to look at 10 years from now.

One person can change a franchise. John Wall might become a top ten player, but should you pass up getting the next "Lebron James"? Who knows what the future holds for Kevin Durant....but as long as LBJ is playing he might never win a championship. Looks at all the incredible players denied a championship because of MJ. We are going to miss that type of talent next year.

It's like the lottery. Everyone knows its stupid to play it, however you have to get at least try to get one ticket, because that gives you a shot....even if it is small.

[montestewart]

The BOBCATs, in next year's HISTORIC draft, could have 3-4 picks in the first half of next year's draft.

Where are all those picks coming from? Also, is the first half of the draft the same as the first round?

[nate33]

Charlotte has a top 12 protected pick from Portland, a top 8 protected pick from Detroit, plus their own pick.

They'll probably do well with those picks, but let's not act like it's a sure bet that they'll land Wiggins and Randall. Looking at the names in DX's 2014 mock, I'm not exactly blown away by the guys that look available in the teens. We're talking about names like Gary Harris, James McAdoo, and PJ Hairston. Those guys would be available in the teens if they came out this year.

[The Consiglieri]

I'm very curious what people would actually want. We know it's not going to happen barring a total catastrophe, but what would you want if you could choose? For me it would be tank, because the only way the present would result in a championship caliber team would require us to land one of these franchise talents in '14. That to me is worth whatever consequences come with it

[FAH1223]

I'm very curious what people would actually want. We know it's not going to happen barring a total catastrophe, but what would you want if you could choose? For me it would be tank, because the only way the present would result in a championship caliber team would require us to land one of these franchise talents in '14. That to me is worth whatever consequences come with it

As well as Ernie's dismissal and the arrival of a new coach in 2014 with those picks.

[nate33]

I'm very curious what people would actually want. We know it's not going to happen barring a total catastrophe, but what would you want if you could choose? For me it would be tank, because the only way the present would result in a championship caliber team would require us to land one of these franchise talents in '14. That to me is worth whatever consequences come with it

How would you go about tanking? Would you instruct the players not to play hard? Would you tell Wall to take a dive and miss most of the year with a phantom injury? If you don't do something like that, I'm not seeing how this team finishes low enough to land a top 5 pick.

The only tanking-related strategy I would consider would be to trade Nene if he plays well at the start of next year and boosts his trade value. That would surely cost us some games, but would put us in better position in the future because we would (hopefully) acquire a young player/pick in the process, and it would free up even more cap room in 2014.

I'd also point out that tanking may move us up a few spots in the draft, doing well would help us in other ways. Specifically, it would make us a better destination to attract free agents in 2014 when we have cap room.

[noworriesinmd]

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

Bobcats picks (possible total of 3 in the first round in 2014)
* Their own
* Portland Pick
* Detroit Pick

I mistook the Chicago pick as going to the Bobcats.

I'm willing to forgo tanking for one shot at that lottery next year.
We just need a chance.
There has to be a team that thinks they are good, but are a few injuries away from being bad...possibly Boston, LA?

Missing next year's draft is like having a six game winning streak at the end of the season. It doesn't help the cause, but makes you feel better for a few games. I want a Championship! I don't want to be "second best" as KD keeps on stating.


Would you take a chance on Phil Jackson the GM?

[nate33]

I'm willing to forgo tanking for one shot at that lottery next year.
We just need a chance.

I'm assuming you meant forgo winning for one shot at the lottery.

As I mentioned in my response to Consiglieri, I'm curious on how you actually plan to go about this tanking strategy. With no major changes, this team is going to win 40 games or more next year. What strategy do you intend to employ to get that win total down around 24 so that we have a statistically significant shot at a top 3 pick?

I can't really comment on anyone's tanking proposal unless they spell out how they're going to do it.

[Ruzious]

If they trade Nene, they can tank. And unless they add quality depth, they'll stink again if they have a major injury - any signigicant injury to Wall, Beal, OR Okafor combined with no Nene would lead to another big losing season.

[deneem4]

Tanking would be stupid...if we get a quality high energy, big man (noah-like..(what vesley suppose to be) or a "reliable" pure post up low block big man...we can have a great playoff run...

[nate33]

If they trade Nene, they can tank. And unless they add quality depth, they'll stink again if they have a major injury - any signigicant injury to Wall, Beal, OR Okafor combined with no Nene would lead to another big losing season.

Even without Nene, I just don't see how we can down below 25 wins unless Wall misses 35+ games. Therefore, the only point at which a conscious strategy to tank makes any sense would be if Wall gets hurt. Until then, it's a pointless discussion.

[Ruzious]

If they trade Nene, they can tank. And unless they add quality depth, they'll stink again if they have a major injury - any signigicant injury to Wall, Beal, OR Okafor combined with no Nene would lead to another big losing season.

Even without Nene, I just don't see how we can down below 25 wins unless Wall misses 35+ games. Therefore, the only point at which a conscious strategy to tank makes any sense would be if Wall gets hurt. Until then, it's a pointless discussion.

Without Nene or with an injured Nene, the Wiz would have an extremely bad front court with no depth. Add another major injury and it's not a choice - they will suck. Yet again.

[verbal8]

Would you take a chance on Phil Jackson the GM?

Not really sure how it is related to tanking, but I think Jackson would be an improvement at the position

[nate33]

If they trade Nene, they can tank. And unless they add quality depth, they'll stink again if they have a major injury - any signigicant injury to Wall, Beal, OR Okafor combined with no Nene would lead to another big losing season.

Even without Nene, I just don't see how we can down below 25 wins unless Wall misses 35+ games. Therefore, the only point at which a conscious strategy to tank makes any sense would be if Wall gets hurt. Until then, it's a pointless discussion.

Without Nene or with an injured Nene, the Wiz would have an extremely bad front court with no depth. Add another major injury and it's not a choice - they will suck. Yet again.

Right, but we need to have that major injury first. I wouldn't go into next year thinking that we need to trade Nene because then we MIGHT also get an injury to another key player, which would facilitate a tank. (And frankly, I don't think an injury to just any player would matter. It would have to be Wall. Even with no Nene and also without one of Beal/Okafor, the team will still win 30 games as long as Wall is healthy.)

All we need to do is go into the season with a plan to win games, and IF we have a major injury to Wall, THEN we trade Nene and tank.

[Ruzious]

Even without Nene, I just don't see how we can down below 25 wins unless Wall misses 35+ games. Therefore, the only point at which a conscious strategy to tank makes any sense would be if Wall gets hurt. Until then, it's a pointless discussion.

Without Nene or with an injured Nene, the Wiz would have an extremely bad front court with no depth. Add another major injury and it's not a choice - they will suck. Yet again.

Right, but we need to have that major injury first. I wouldn't go into next year thinking that we need to trade Nene because then we MIGHT also get an injury to another key player, which would facilitate a tank. (And frankly, I don't think an injury to just any player would matter. It would have to be Wall. Even with no Nene and also without one of Beal/Okafor, the team will still win 30 games as long as Wall is healthy.)

All we need to do is go into the season with a plan to win games, and IF we have a major injury to Wall, THEN we trade Nene and tank.

I concur with going into next season intending to win by keeping Nene.