Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Dark Faze]

huh

Nerlens Noel had a freshmen season that was leagues better than say, Alex Lens freshmen season. He posted a PER of 27.3 as a true freshmen and had a DRTG of 81.9, which rates over 10 points better than Lens sophmore campaign and was only 1 point worse than Anthony Davis'.

Nerlens won't be very good offensively, but other than IQ he may actually have better physical tools than Anthony Davis in terms of defense. He's so bouncy and quick, with incredible length. Steals per game are a great indicator of how "quick" a player is in terms of his reaction, and for a big Nerlens had 2 a game, which is pretty terrific for the position.

ACL's mean very little in todays world of sports medicine. It would be dumb not to take him if you've got the 1st overall.

[stevemcqueen1]

Dat, I fundamentally don't understand Noel. I want you, CCJ, Sev, and others to tell me why we should pick him #1 when we win the lottery. He's unskilled; it will be at LEAST a couple years before he's an offensive contributor. He's skinny and weak. How is he going to keep anyone from getting deep post position? His game is predicated on athleticism and he's coming of a torn ACL (and someone here said he tore it is HS too -- did we confirm that?). I understand that he blocked a ton of shots last year, but so did Hassan Whiteside; a great college shotblocker doesn't equate into a good pro player. There has to be more to his game and I'm not seeing much.

Doesn't it seem like his draft stock is inflated by the fact that he went to Kentucky? Imagine if he had just had the same frosh season at Maryland, NC State, or UCLA. Would he be nearly as hyped?

He's the most athletic big man in the class by a country mile, the best defensive player in the class by a large margin despite the fact he's one of the youngest players in the class, has tremendous length, has a tremendous bball IQ, and had games where he was totally dominant in ways that no other big man in the class was.

Anthony Davis was perhaps the greatest shotblocker in recent CBB history... until Nerlens Noel. If you can find a way, watch his game versus Ole Miss and then you'll understand why he's the consensus #1.

[Deeptu McPullup]

If you can find a way, watch his game versus Ole Miss and then you'll understand why he's the consensus #1.

This appears to be the full game, though I haven't watched it...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFIFUlgii9o[/youtube]

[go'stags]

Question: If Len, Burke, Bennett, Porter, Mclemore, Noel, and a late riser go before our pick, and Oladipo is the player of that top group that Dat talked about, do we take him or a guy like Dieng or Olynk?

[verbal8]

Question: If Len, Burke, Bennett, Porter, Mclemore, Noel, and a late riser go before our pick, and Oladipo is the player of that top group that Dat talked about, do we take him or a guy like Dieng or Olynk?

That is a tough call. I think it would be a bit of a reach for Dieng or Qlynk(assuming the 8th pick). However the likely BPA candidates - Oladipo and Shabazz, seem to be poor fits for the Wizards. Maybe trade down with the Trailblazers who have 3 2nd round picks.

[Ruzious]

Question: If Len, Burke, Bennett, Porter, Mclemore, Noel, and a late riser go before our pick, and Oladipo is the player of that top group that Dat talked about, do we take him or a guy like Dieng or Olynk?

I'd take Zeller without any hesitation. Then I would look to trade down, but if I couldn't, I'd take Oladipo - even though it'd be hard to play him with Beal - because he's significantly better than the next guy, imo.

[Dark Faze]

You don't get Dieng that high, hopefully you can trade up to get him.

Oladipo fits into what we do here...he's a mostly off ball player who is strong in transition, very athletic, strong defense. He's basically Trevor Ariza as a 2 guard, who can be just as streaky in terms of the jumpshot. Terrific defender, great as a ballhawk.

I'm not crying if he's the pick. If we pair him with Ariza we're going to have a very strong bench.

Both Oladipo and Olynyk would be incredibly useful off the bench, though you could argue that Dipo would be more of a luxury pick given we're set at the backcourt and Temple did a damn good job as a backup 2 and comes cheap. On the otherhand we desperately need a skilled backup for Okafor/Nene.

I personally go with Olynyk though, as our front court needs are pretty massive right now with Nenes injury concerns and our terrible backup bigs.

[nate33]

Question: If Len, Burke, Bennett, Porter, Mclemore, Noel, and a late riser go before our pick, and Oladipo is the player of that top group that Dat talked about, do we take him or a guy like Dieng or Olynk?

That is a tough call. I think it would be a bit of a reach for Dieng or Qlynk(assuming the 8th pick). However the likely BPA candidates - Oladipo and Shabazz, seem to be poor fits for the Wizards. Maybe trade down with the Trailblazers who have 3 2nd round picks.

Yeah, but those Portland picks are late. Their highest pick is 39th. The track record of mid-second-rounders is uninspiring. I'd definitely give Utah a call about their #14 and #21 pick first.

[verbal8]

Question: If Len, Burke, Bennett, Porter, Mclemore, Noel, and a late riser go before our pick, and Oladipo is the player of that top group that Dat talked about, do we take him or a guy like Dieng or Olynk?

That is a tough call. I think it would be a bit of a reach for Dieng or Qlynk(assuming the 8th pick). However the likely BPA candidates - Oladipo and Shabazz, seem to be poor fits for the Wizards. Maybe trade down with the Trailblazers who have 3 2nd round picks.

Yeah, but those Portland picks are late. Their highest pick is 39th. The track record of mid-second-rounders is uninspiring. I'd definitely give Utah a call about their #14 and #21 pick first.

It is only dropping 2 spots in the first with Portland though. Maybe even flip it for a 2nd in 2014.

I would pull the trigger on a Utah deal as soon as Porter and Len are gone. Where a potential trade for the Utah pciks would get really interesting is if the Wizards have picked Len, but Dieng or Olynk is still on the board. At that point you have to project who you get at 21. If it is a solid wing or combo guard, it is a tough call.

[nate33]

I would pull the trigger on a Utah deal as soon as Porter and Len are gone. Where a potential trade for the Utah pciks would get really interesting is if the Wizards have picked Len, but Dieng or Olynk is still on the board. At that point you have to project who you get at 21. If it is a solid wing or combo guard, it is a tough call.

Once we pick Len, I don't see Utah making the trade. They have too many young bigs to develop as it is.

I think you are right that we should call Utah as soon as Porter and Len are gone (assuming Bennett is gone too). If Burke is on the board, it's a pretty good bet that they'll make the trade.

The dream scenario is that they trade us Kanter + #21 for the #8 + Seraphin.

[fishercob]

huh

Nerlens Noel had a freshmen season that was leagues better than say, Alex Lens freshmen season. He posted a PER of 27.3 as a true freshmen and had a DRTG of 81.9, which rates over 10 points better than Lens sophmore campaign and was only 1 point worse than Anthony Davis'.

Nerlens won't be very good offensively, but other than IQ he may actually have better physical tools than Anthony Davis in terms of defense. He's so bouncy and quick, with incredible length. Steals per game are a great indicator of how "quick" a player is in terms of his reaction, and for a big Nerlens had 2 a game, which is pretty terrific for the position.

ACL's mean very little in todays world of sports medicine. It would be dumb not to take him if you've got the 1st overall.

OY.

If you want to evaluate a guy based on stats, you need to come a lot stronger than PER and DRtg. Individual DRtg seems like a pretty useless measure based on how it's been explained to me. PER is okay, but far from a be-all, end all. And you say yourself he "wont be very good offensively." Is it too much to ask a top overall pick to impact both ends of the floor?

I get that guys come back more quickly from ACL's than they used to. But should we just discount longterm health concerns for a guy whose game is specifically predicated on athleticism (he's so bouncy and quick).

I don't want to heat too much about other players. I want people to address my specific concerns on Noel.

He's unskilled on offense -- tell me why this isn't the case or why we can readily assume he'll improve his offense.

He's skinny and weak -- allay my concerns here. Is he bigger and/or stronger than I think? Is that less of an issue than I might worry about? If I was making that argument I'd point to Tyson Chandler and Larry Sanders, I suppose.

His health with respect to his reliance on athleticism -- what kind of player would he be if he doesn't turn out to be an elite athlete b/c of repeated injury?

We're going to have to understand all of this stuff well when we win the lottery.

[verbal8]

I think Tyson Chandler is a good analogy. Chandler is not a terribly skilled offensive player, but has lead the league in TS% the last 3 years. You can argue he should have been the number 1 pick in his draft - toss-up between him, Gasol and Tony Parker.

Part of the reason Noel is number 1 is their isn't really a Gasol or Parker in this draft.

Noel is as close to a can't miss prospect as there is on the defensive side of the ball. He plays good defense and blocks shots. His steal numbers indicate his awareness and athleticism. Whiteside didn't have the steal numbers.

He is raw offensively, but is reasonably effective. He isn't a post threat, but converted 64% of his near rim attempts.

He played against a high level of competition and was reasonably consistent in his production. He also is only 19, if he was at this point at 21-22, he would likely be a mid-1st round pick.

If he is a bust, I think it will be an Okafor "bust", not a Olawankandi(sp?) or Kwame Brown level one.

huh

Nerlens Noel had a freshmen season that was leagues better than say, Alex Lens freshmen season. He posted a PER of 27.3 as a true freshmen and had a DRTG of 81.9, which rates over 10 points better than Lens sophmore campaign and was only 1 point worse than Anthony Davis'.

Nerlens won't be very good offensively, but other than IQ he may actually have better physical tools than Anthony Davis in terms of defense. He's so bouncy and quick, with incredible length. Steals per game are a great indicator of how "quick" a player is in terms of his reaction, and for a big Nerlens had 2 a game, which is pretty terrific for the position.

ACL's mean very little in todays world of sports medicine. It would be dumb not to take him if you've got the 1st overall.

OY.

If you want to evaluate a guy based on stats, you need to come a lot stronger than PER and DRtg. Individual DRtg seems like a pretty useless measure based on how it's been explained to me. PER is okay, but far from a be-all, end all. And you say yourself he "wont be very good offensively." Is it too much to ask a top overall pick to impact both ends of the floor?

I get that guys come back more quickly from ACL's than they used to. But should we just discount longterm health concerns for a guy whose game is specifically predicated on athleticism (he's so bouncy and quick).

I don't want to heat too much about other players. I want people to address my specific concerns on Noel.

He's unskilled on offense -- tell me why this isn't the case or why we can readily assume he'll improve his offense.

He's skinny and weak -- allay my concerns here. Is he bigger and/or stronger than I think? Is that less of an issue than I might worry about? If I was making that argument I'd point to Tyson Chandler and Larry Sanders, I suppose.

His health with respect to his reliance on athleticism -- what kind of player would he be if he doesn't turn out to be an elite athlete b/c of repeated injury?

We're going to have to understand all of this stuff well when we win the lottery.

[Dark Faze]

Fishercob it seems like you're really reaching on reasons to hate Nerlens. The strength and weight will get there and the impact of defensive players like Chandler/Joakim are extremely valuable. Nerlens probably has more potential than both of them.

Obviouslly he'll be checked out medically. If he's not on schedule in terms of his rehab then that's a red flag, but oterhwise there's no way he doesn't go #1.

[fishercob]

I think Tyson Chandler is a good analogy. Chandler is not a terribly skilled offensive player, but has lead the league in TS% the last 3 years. You can argue he should have been the number 1 pick in his draft - toss-up between him, Gasol and Tony Parker.

Part of the reason Noel is number 1 is their isn't really a Gasol or Parker in this draft.

Noel is as close to a can't miss prospect as there is on the defensive side of the ball. He plays good defense and blocks shots. His steal numbers indicate his awareness and athleticism. Whiteside didn't have the steal numbers.

He is raw offensively, but is reasonably effective. He isn't a post threat, but converted 64% of his near rim attempts.

He played against a high level of competition and was reasonably consistent in his production. He also is only 19, if he was at this point at 21-22, he would likely be a mid-1st round pick.

If he is a bust, I think it will be an Okafor "bust", not a Olawankandi(sp?) or Kwame Brown level one.

Good post, verbal. If Noel turns into Chandler, he'll be worth the pick. I don't know how to judge whether he'll be like Chandler or Noah vs. Amir Johnson or Stromile Swift. I haven't compared all their college numbers and Chandler didn't go to college obviously.

With Chandler, bear in mind that he struggled mightily his first two seasons in the league.Through five seasons he was so well thought of that he was traded for PJ Brown and JR Smith. His last 3 seasons have been his best -- by a huge margin. If Noel's career trajectory follow's Chandlers, then it would be best to trade for him in 5 or 7 years.

Fishercob it seems like you're really reaching on reasons to hate Nerlens. The strength and weight will get there and the impact of defensive players like Chandler/Joakim are extremely valuable. Nerlens probably has more potential than both of them.

Less thoughtful. You still haven't addressed any of my stated concerns, directly or otherwise. If you believe Noel should be the pick, you need to be able to defend that better than "Nerlens probably has more potential than them both." I'm not hating anything or anyone. I'm just not seeing the same can't-miss prospect everyone else is.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm struggling to find a favorite in this draft at #8.

Based on all the talk thus far these guys have a high chance of being selected before we pick.

CE Nerlens Noel
SG Ben McLemore
PF Anthony Bennett
SG Victor Oladipo
SF Otto Porter
PG Trey Burke

I'd take Noel, Porter, Oladipo, Burke (in that order) if they somehow fall to 8.

If McLemore or Bennett falls I'd potentially look to line up a trade to team wanting either.

Outside of who's remaining outside the perceived top 6, I'm looking at this group of players in no particular order:

CE Alex Len
CE Steven Adams
CE Rudy Gobert
CE Gorgui Dieng
F/C Kelly Olynyk
F/C Cody Zeller
PF Dario Saric
SF Giannis Adetokunbo
SF Sergey Karasev
G/F Shabazz Muhammad
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SG Erick Green
PG C.J. McCollum
PG Dennis Schroeder

I'd say Len, Olynyk & McCollum are the favorites at the moment but that's likely to change in time.

Dat, I fundamentally don't understand Noel. I want you, CCJ, Sev, and others to tell me why we should pick him #1 when we win the lottery. He's unskilled; it will be at LEAST a couple years before he's an offensive contributor. He's skinny and weak. How is he going to keep anyone from getting deep post position? His game is predicated on athleticism and he's coming of a torn ACL (and someone here said he tore it is HS too -- did we confirm that?). I understand that he blocked a ton of shots last year, but so did Hassan Whiteside; a great college shotblocker doesn't equate into a good pro player. There has to be more to his game and I'm not seeing much.

Doesn't it seem like his draft stock is inflated by the fact that he went to Kentucky? Imagine if he had just had the same frosh season at Maryland, NC State, or UCLA. Would he be nearly as hyped?

Steals are what distinguish Noel from someone like Derrick Favors. Otherwise, I would be inclined to agree with you, fish. Noel's not a player that I want but due to his tremendous defensive potential he rates as the top talent.

The top player could be Oladipo, Burke, or as much as I don't want to like the guy, Anthony Bennett. The top pick in terms of potential if not Noel could be any of Len, Gobert, or maybe Adetokunbo.

That said, Otto Porter seems the best fit. He is the player who would become instantly a cornerstone for the future championship-caliber team the Wizards want to assemble.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

There are many good PGs in this draft. Nate Wolters combines good scoring, good defense, and much better passing than a PG/SG rated highly, CJ McCollum. Wolters can back Wall as a playmaker better than most in this draft. He also has enough size to play SG.

I think he is easily a top-25 player in this draft and would be a nice fit. If Wizards draft Olynyk and Wolters I would be thrilled. Those two and unheralded players DJ Stephens and Zeke Marshall have captivated my attention. So has Jamaal Franklin. He is an explosively athletic player who is very underrated.

[pancakes3]

To me, there are 3 main reasons why Noel is a great prospect and a bonus reason why he'd be great on the wizards.

1 - Hustle. It's not that he's freakishly athletic that makes him valuable defensively. It's that he's willing to mix it up. He dives. He keeps his hands up. His head is on a swivel. When he makes a block he follows it and blocks the follow up shots or grabs the rebound. CCJ mentioned the steals. that's because on pick and rolls he shows hard and sometimes even traps the little guards. He plays the passing lanes because his hands are active and he's zoned in on defense 100% of the time. This would be something you won't see from Zeller or Len.

2 - Hands. He's not the scorer that Zeller or Len are but he's got just as good hands. He may not have a jump hook but if he gets the ball down deep, he'll put it in. He's not going to bobble it like Okafor. He's not going to muff the layup either. He's got "finishing ability" if not the footwork or ball skills that go along with being a great scorer.

3 - Smarts. He's a very smart player. He may not be a good scorer but he knows that. He might not have a perimeter game, but he knows that. He knows to get the ball to the guard before taking off. He knows that if he doesn't have the jump hook to not force it, and to reset the offense. He knows that defense is important. He knows when to leave his man and when to chase the block. He's the anti-Mcgee in every meaningful and positive way possible. Playing within your limitations is a very underrated skill. It's why Dwight is Dwight and Josh Smith is Josh Smith. It's why Blatche never became even close to what he could have been. You can see this in Noel's game. His offense - hyperefficient and great assists. His defense - blocks as well as steals while maintaining his rebounding numbers. It's subtly, very impressive as opposed to someone like Varnardo.

Bonus * - Fit. He can slide into either frontcourt position with Wall/Beal and just run with it. He can play help defense, he can anchor it in the middle. He can set picks and screens. Basically he's a smarter, better Ibaka. John Wall and him are potentially an even better version than Payton/Kemp. Then you add Beal on the perimeter. It's all so very exciting on the half percent chance it'll happen.

[DCZards]

Bonus * - Fit. He can slide into either frontcourt position with Wall/Beal and just run with it. He can play help defense, he can anchor it in the middle. He can set picks and screens. Basically he's a smarter, better Ibaka. John Wall and him are potentially an even better version than Payton/Kemp. Then you add Beal on the perimeter. It's all so very exciting on the half percent chance it'll happen.

I was with you on Noel, pancakes, until the Ibaka comment. Personally, I've been very impressed by Ibaka's development over the past 2-3 years, especially as an offensive threat. I'm not sure Noel will ever develop the 15-20 foot jumper that Ibaka regularly sticks. Heck, Serge even knocks down an occasional three pointer. On top of that, Ibaka seems to me to be a pretty smart guy. Noel will have to prove to me that he's smarter.

Will Noel someday be a better player than Ibaka? Probably. But that remains to be seen.

[spaceman_E]

Dat, I fundamentally don't understand Noel. I want you, CCJ, Sev, and others to tell me why we should pick him #1 when we win the lottery. He's unskilled; it will be at LEAST a couple years before he's an offensive contributor. He's skinny and weak. How is he going to keep anyone from getting deep post position? His game is predicated on athleticism and he's coming of a torn ACL (and someone here said he tore it is HS too -- did we confirm that?). I understand that he blocked a ton of shots last year, but so did Hassan Whiteside; a great college shotblocker doesn't equate into a good pro player. There has to be more to his game and I'm not seeing much.

Doesn't it seem like his draft stock is inflated by the fact that he went to Kentucky? Imagine if he had just had the same frosh season at Maryland, NC State, or UCLA. Would he be nearly as hyped?

I believe Tyrus Thomas is the guy you are looking for. What makes him not Tyrus Thomas?

[Ruzious]

One thing you gotsta always keep in mind when evaluating Noel is - when you saw him, he was all of 18 years old. He turned 19 3 weeks ago. He will continue to get much thicker and much stronger. Strength is most likely not going to be a negative for him in a couple of years. It's a non-issue in the long run. And a kid like him who looks as competitive and a determined hard worker as he does is very likely going to improve at a faster rate than the average prospect. We know he's a remarkable defensive prospect. We don't know how well he'll develop offensively, but we shouldn't simply assume that he is going to be an unskilled offensive player in a couple of years.