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Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1221 » by fishercob » Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:33 pm

I wont watch that entire Ole Miss game, but a Noel highlight reel I saw was impressive. His timing and body control as a shotblocker appears to be excellent. I think he benefitted from some non-calls, but the sum total of the data on his shot-blocking is encouraging. Just keep in mind that that't not a sole reason to draft a guy. We mentioned Whiteside, then there were also plenty here who were ready to anoint biyombo as the next Ben Wallace after his Hoops Summit performance.

Ruzious wrote:One thing you gotsta always keep in mind when evaluating Noel is - when you saw him, he was all of 18 years old. He turned 19 3 weeks ago. He will continue to get much thicker and much stronger. Strength is most likely not going to be a negative for him in a couple of years. It's a non-issue in the long run. And a kid like him who looks as competitive and a determined hard worker as he does is very likely going to improve at a faster rate than the average prospect. We know he's a remarkable defensive prospect. We don't know how well he'll develop offensively, but we shouldn't simply assume that he is going to be an unskilled offensive player in a couple of years.


Good points. Age is reflective of upside, by and large. And if he's got uncanny desire, then that's a big deal.

pancakes3 wrote:3 - Smarts. He's a very smart player. He may not be a good scorer but he knows that. He might not have a perimeter game, but he knows that. He knows to get the ball to the guard before taking off. He knows that if he doesn't have the jump hook to not force it, and to reset the offense. He knows that defense is important. He knows when to leave his man and when to chase the block. He's the anti-Mcgee in every meaningful and positive way possible. Playing within your limitations is a very underrated skill. It's why Dwight is Dwight and Josh Smith is Josh Smith. It's why Blatche never became even close to what he could have been. You can see this in Noel's game. His offense - hyperefficient and great assists. His defense - blocks as well as steals while maintaining his rebounding numbers. It's subtly, very impressive as opposed to someone like Varnardo.

Bonus * - Fit. He can slide into either frontcourt position with Wall/Beal and just run with it. He can play help defense, he can anchor it in the middle. He can set picks and screens. Basically he's a smarter, better Ibaka. John Wall and him are potentially an even better version than Payton/Kemp. Then you add Beal on the perimeter. It's all so very exciting on the half percent chance it'll happen.


If you are correct about smarts, this is huge. Chandler led the entire league in offensive rating this season because he took 87% of his shots at the rim, was low usage, and didn't turn the ball over much. If Noel is willing to follow that blueprint -- basically the exact opposite of Blatche and McGee when they were here -- we might have something.

As DCZ said, he doesn't have Ibaka's range (or close) yet, not does he have Ibaka's strength (yet). But Ibaka was listed at 6'10 220 just like Noel when he came into the league. So maybe. Based on their respective years at UK, he;s nowhere near the prospect Davis is, but that's okay and we knew that.

I still have some pause over the fact that he played seemingly very weak competition with the exception of Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and Louisville. Save the Louisville game, he was so-so (granted Duke and MD were the first 2 games of the season). The likes of Len and Plumlee put up some pretty good numbers. Samford, Portland, Lipscomb, Marshall and most of the SEC isn't exactly murderers row.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1222 » by fishercob » Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:33 pm

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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1223 » by hands11 » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:23 pm

Dark Faze wrote:Fishercob it seems like you're really reaching on reasons to hate Nerlens. The strength and weight will get there and the impact of defensive players like Chandler/Joakim are extremely valuable. Nerlens probably has more potential than both of them.

Obviouslly he'll be checked out medically. If he's not on schedule in terms of his rehab then that's a red flag, but oterhwise there's no way he doesn't go #1.


I think there are legit questions about Noel. I have wondered this kind of stuff myself but have held back from posting it figuring, why not just wait and see if it is even an issue. We need to win the a top 3 to get him.

As for Bennett, I agree. I think he would drive Randy a little nuts.

VO and Otto are pure fits for Randy. I have no questions there.

But I think a player like CJM gives them more of what they need at guard since they already have Temple as a 3 position guard defender and they have Trevor A.

Given the Wizards need depth, there are lots of players that would fit well here. But if you are looking for future starters, your options get more slim. I would point more toward players like Noel, Otto, Len, Dieng at the top of the draft.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1224 » by hands11 » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:42 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:There are many good PGs in this draft. Nate Wolters combines good scoring, good defense, and much better passing than a PG/SG rated highly, CJ McCollum. Wolters can back Wall as a playmaker better than most in this draft. He also has enough size to play SG.

I think he is easily a top-25 player in this draft and would be a nice fit. If Wizards draft Olynyk and Wolters I would be thrilled. Those two and unheralded players DJ Stephens and Zeke Marshall have captivated my attention. So has Jamaal Franklin. He is an explosively athletic player who is very underrated.


http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/

Well for the last few days, DraftX has them taking both CJM and Wolters.

For me, I think they need two more guards. I don't see Price sticking around as a longer term piece.

But if this was the board in the 2nd, I would take Erik Murphy over Wolters.

CJM is enough of a hybrid SG/PG to cover what they need at guard and they need a S4. If they needed more help at PG, which they do, they could use the 2nd 2nd on Ray McCallum or Pierre Jackson.

CJM, Erik Murphy, then Ray McCallum or Pierre Jackson

But its hard to me to get away from seeing they need to get Len or Dieng because they really need center help.

But if they could get a late first and walk with

CJM, Withey, Erik Murphy, then Ray McCallum or Pierre Jackson

I would consider giving up Kevin S for that late first to get Withey

That would be a home run in my book. But they have already said they don't want to add so many rookies. Which is to bad. These are not a bunch of 19 year olds.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1225 » by daSwami » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:44 pm

In Noel, I see shades of a young Zo Mourning. I also see shades of Kid n Play (especially Kid), which sends him sky-rocketing up my personal draft board.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1226 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Wed May 1, 2013 1:11 am

This is off subject, but just browsing through rosters, I came across Greivis Vasquez... man I didn't realize he put up 14 and 9 this year! You gotta say he's exceeded expectations, and I'm glad to see it!


As far as the draft... if we come out with Porter and Murphy I will be thrilled! My personal favorites in the 1st for the Wizards taking all things into account, skill, upside, mentality, position, etc... Porter, Len, McCollum, Dieng, Burke, Olynyk, Oladipo, Zeller. In order as best as I can.


2nd round I just want either Muscala or Murphy.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1227 » by fishercob » Wed May 1, 2013 1:26 am

daSwami wrote:In Noel, I see shades of a young Zo Mourning. I also see shades of Kid n Play (especially Kid), which sends him sky-rocketing up my personal draft board.


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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1228 » by Benjammin » Wed May 1, 2013 2:35 am

hands11 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:There are many good PGs in this draft. Nate Wolters combines good scoring, good defense, and much better passing than a PG/SG rated highly, CJ McCollum. Wolters can back Wall as a playmaker better than most in this draft. He also has enough size to play SG.

I think he is easily a top-25 player in this draft and would be a nice fit. If Wizards draft Olynyk and Wolters I would be thrilled. Those two and unheralded players DJ Stephens and Zeke Marshall have captivated my attention. So has Jamaal Franklin. He is an explosively athletic player who is very underrated.


http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/

Well for the last few days, DraftX has them taking both CJM and Wolters.

For me, I think they need two more guards. I don't see Price sticking around as a longer term piece.

But if this was the board in the 2nd, I would take Erik Murphy over Wolters.

CJM is enough of a hybrid SG/PG to cover what they need at guard and they need a S4. If they needed more help at PG, which they do, they could use the 2nd 2nd on Ray McCallum or Pierre Jackson.

CJM, Erik Murphy, then Ray McCallum or Pierre Jackson

But its hard to me to get away from seeing they need to get Len or Dieng because they really need center help.

But if they could get a late first and walk with

CJM, Withey, Erik Murphy, then Ray McCallum or Pierre Jackson

I would consider giving up Kevin S for that late first to get Withey

That would be a home run in my book. But they have already said they don't want to add so many rookies. Which is to bad. These are not a bunch of 19 year olds.


Come on Hands, really??

Team needs have NOT yet been taken into account in this mock draft.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2S0LIIxzG
http://www.draftexpress.com

Did you see that NOT or did you not?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1229 » by hands11 » Wed May 1, 2013 4:22 am

Whats you point Ben ?

I just said what the page had and what I would do if the board stayed like this in the 2nd.

Of course the boards will change before the draft.

:roll:

That said, what the Wizards need is very subjective this year. There are lots of directions they could go.

Do they need a SF ? Depends on who you ask. With Trevor A and Webster, many would say no, they have other greater needs and there will be plenty of SF next year.

Its not like last year when a starting SG ala BB was clearly what they needed. And even then some said go after MKG.

They need more shooters and ball handers. They need a tall defensive center.
Thats a back up PG, SG, C and S4

What is most important ? Depends on who is available and who you ask because for now they have their starters but they need all of those things.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1230 » by hands11 » Wed May 1, 2013 5:26 am

nate33 wrote:
verbal8 wrote:
go'stags wrote:Question: If Len, Burke, Bennett, Porter, Mclemore, Noel, and a late riser go before our pick, and Oladipo is the player of that top group that Dat talked about, do we take him or a guy like Dieng or Olynk?


That is a tough call. I think it would be a bit of a reach for Dieng or Qlynk(assuming the 8th pick). However the likely BPA candidates - Oladipo and Shabazz, seem to be poor fits for the Wizards. Maybe trade down with the Trailblazers who have 3 2nd round picks.

Yeah, but those Portland picks are late. Their highest pick is 39th. The track record of mid-second-rounders is uninspiring. I'd definitely give Utah a call about their #14 and #21 pick first.


So who would you target at 21 ?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1231 » by verbal8 » Wed May 1, 2013 11:22 am

I think Tyrus Thomas is a good cautionary comparison. If the injuries are an issue rather than a fluke, they may have similar career paths. I think a knock on Thomas is he does seem to be an issue with BBIQ, that Noel does not.

Jordan Hill was another one I thought about. I think Hill would apply more if he was at the same point at 22, rather than just turned 19.


spaceman_E wrote:
fishercob wrote:Dat, I fundamentally don't understand Noel. I want you, CCJ, Sev, and others to tell me why we should pick him #1 when we win the lottery. He's unskilled; it will be at LEAST a couple years before he's an offensive contributor. He's skinny and weak. How is he going to keep anyone from getting deep post position? His game is predicated on athleticism and he's coming of a torn ACL (and someone here said he tore it is HS too -- did we confirm that?). I understand that he blocked a ton of shots last year, but so did Hassan Whiteside; a great college shotblocker doesn't equate into a good pro player. There has to be more to his game and I'm not seeing much.

Doesn't it seem like his draft stock is inflated by the fact that he went to Kentucky? Imagine if he had just had the same frosh season at Maryland, NC State, or UCLA. Would he be nearly as hyped?


I believe Tyrus Thomas is the guy you are looking for. What makes him not Tyrus Thomas?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1232 » by nate33 » Wed May 1, 2013 12:33 pm

hands11 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Yeah, but those Portland picks are late. Their highest pick is 39th. The track record of mid-second-rounders is uninspiring. I'd definitely give Utah a call about their #14 and #21 pick first.


So who would you target at 21 ?

Too many variables. If I didn't get Dieng at #14, I'd certainly look at Withey at #21. If we got Dieng at #14, then I'd be looking for BPA at 21 - hopefully a guard (Schroeder, Franklin, Goodwin). Whatever the case, I like our chances of finding a rotation player using the #21, rather than 3 shots in the dark in the late 2nd round.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1233 » by fishercob » Wed May 1, 2013 1:11 pm

Some more notes on Noel and Len:

I took a look at their advanced stats this season.

Noel's vs. Len's

Noel is a little better in PER, TS%, DRB%, and significantly better in block and steal percentage.

Len is better ORB%, AST%, TO%, is higher usage, and has a better ORtg. Their overall rebounding percentages are very close.

I know Noel is very young, but Len is just a baby too. And I think some of Noel's youth-related upside is dulled by his injury history. To me, Len's physical attributes provide more upside because he's so much bigger and his frame can likely sustain a lot more weight.

Noel's upside seems to be like a Tyson Chandler or maybe Ibaka if he can develop a lot on offense -- a disruptive athletic defender who protects the rim. Len appears to be more in the Marc Gasol, Hibbert mold -- huge, skilled 2-way guy whose impact on defense is felt through taking up space and being in the right spot due to size/quickness/anticipation combination.

They could both be great players and could both bust -- depends on how hard they work, injuries, and luck. I continue to lean towards Len.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1234 » by fishercob » Wed May 1, 2013 1:24 pm

A little more on the Noel injury here

Noel's torn ACL might have been linked to an injury he suffered during his sophomore year in high school. According to this report from The Courier-Journal, Noel fractured the growth plate in his left knee and was forced to sit out the entire season.

Instead of waiting for the knee to fully recover, the lanky forward rushed back to the court to play AAU ball during the summer. It's not a sure thing that the high school injury is the reason for the torn ACL, but complications can arise if the knee does not fully heal.

"If the leg healed awkwardly and (Noel) had a malalignment in that knee, that could predispose him to future injuries in that leg," Dr. Robin West told the Courier-Journal.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1235 » by Rafael122 » Wed May 1, 2013 2:03 pm

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Yeah, but those Portland picks are late. Their highest pick is 39th. The track record of mid-second-rounders is uninspiring. I'd definitely give Utah a call about their #14 and #21 pick first.


So who would you target at 21 ?

Too many variables. If I didn't get Dieng at #14, I'd certainly look at Withey at #21. If we got Dieng at #14, then I'd be looking for BPA at 21 - hopefully a guard (Schroeder, Franklin, Goodwin). Whatever the case, I like our chances of finding a rotation player using the #21, rather than 3 shots in the dark in the late 2nd round.


If available, I would take CJM at 14. I agree w/the Withey pick at #21. It also gives us the ability to move a couple of guys off the roster either for salary relief purposes or to acquire a pick in 2014.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1236 » by verbal8 » Wed May 1, 2013 2:17 pm

That does sound worse than the typical ACL tear :(

I think it is clear if he was somehow on the board at 8 or later, he is worth the risk. The really interesting scenario would be moving up to 3 and having Len and Porter gone. The choice would be between Noel(who scared 2 teams off), McLemore, Burke and Bennett.

fishercob wrote:A little more on the Noel injury here

Noel's torn ACL might have been linked to an injury he suffered during his sophomore year in high school. According to this report from The Courier-Journal, Noel fractured the growth plate in his left knee and was forced to sit out the entire season.

Instead of waiting for the knee to fully recover, the lanky forward rushed back to the court to play AAU ball during the summer. It's not a sure thing that the high school injury is the reason for the torn ACL, but complications can arise if the knee does not fully heal.

"If the leg healed awkwardly and (Noel) had a malalignment in that knee, that could predispose him to future injuries in that leg," Dr. Robin West told the Courier-Journal.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1237 » by Benjammin » Wed May 1, 2013 2:20 pm

Rafael122 wrote:If available, I would take CJM at 14. I agree w/the Withey pick at #21. It also gives us the ability to move a couple of guys off the roster either for salary relief purposes or to acquire a pick in 2014.


I highly, highly doubt CJM would be there at 14. If you'd like to make a little friendly wager on it, I'm all in. This idea of trading back for more picks sounds appealing, but the NBA is not the NFL. Just because our GM struggles with player selection doesn't mean quantity is better than quality.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1238 » by nate33 » Wed May 1, 2013 2:34 pm

Benjammin wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:If available, I would take CJM at 14. I agree w/the Withey pick at #21. It also gives us the ability to move a couple of guys off the roster either for salary relief purposes or to acquire a pick in 2014.


I highly, highly doubt CJM would be there at 14. If you'd like to make a little friendly wager on it, I'm all in. This idea of trading back for more picks sounds appealing, but the NBA is not the NFL. Just because our GM struggles with player selection doesn't mean quantity is better than quality.

In general, I agree with you. Take the quality over quantity. But in this draft, my concern is that the talent value drops a tier just before we pick, but the tier we're in remains relatively even talentwise all the way down to the 14-15 range. Basically, we'd still be getting the same tier of talent at #14 that we would get at #8.

Let's assume the following 7 players go first (in any order):
Noel
McLemore
Porter
Bennett
Burke
Len
Oladipo

After that, the next tier includes:
McCollum
Zeller
Olynyk
Dieng
Carter-Martin
Plumlee
Gobert
Muhammed

And Dieng doesn't seem to rank that high within the group so he would probably be there at #14. Basically, I think Dieng is as good as any of the other guys in that tier, so #14 isn't really worse than #8.

All that said, I do not profess to be great at analyzing talent in the draft, so maybe I'm way off base. Among that second tier, do you think any stands head and shoulders above the rest?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1239 » by sfam » Wed May 1, 2013 2:55 pm

Benjammin wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:If available, I would take CJM at 14. I agree w/the Withey pick at #21. It also gives us the ability to move a couple of guys off the roster either for salary relief purposes or to acquire a pick in 2014.


I highly, highly doubt CJM would be there at 14. If you'd like to make a little friendly wager on it, I'm all in. This idea of trading back for more picks sounds appealing, but the NBA is not the NFL. Just because our GM struggles with player selection doesn't mean quantity is better than quality.


+1

The chances appear very slim that we would get better value with the #14 and #21 over the #8. We're far better off staying put and drafting unless we are getting a solid prospect like Kanter back. Kanter and the #21 for the 8th pick seems like a great deal. I might even like Kanter alone, but am really opposed to the idea of moving back, unless its from the #2 to, say, the #4 pick.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III 

Post#1240 » by sfam » Wed May 1, 2013 2:57 pm

nate33 wrote:
Benjammin wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:If available, I would take CJM at 14. I agree w/the Withey pick at #21. It also gives us the ability to move a couple of guys off the roster either for salary relief purposes or to acquire a pick in 2014.


I highly, highly doubt CJM would be there at 14. If you'd like to make a little friendly wager on it, I'm all in. This idea of trading back for more picks sounds appealing, but the NBA is not the NFL. Just because our GM struggles with player selection doesn't mean quantity is better than quality.

In general, I agree with you. Take the quality over quantity. But in this draft, my concern is that the talent value drops a tier just before we pick, but the tier we're in remains relatively even talentwise all the way down to the 14-15 range. Basically, we'd still be getting the same tier of talent at #14 that we would get at #8.

Let's assume the following 7 players go first (in any order):
Noel
McLemore
Porter
Bennett
Burke
Len
Oladipo

After that, the next tier includes:
McCollum
Zeller
Olynyk
Dieng
Carter-Martin
Plumlee
Gobert
Muhammed

And Dieng doesn't seem to rank that high within the group so he would probably be there at #14. Basically, I think Dieng is as good as any of the other guys in that tier, so #14 isn't really worse than #8.

All that said, I do not profess to be great at analyzing talent in the draft, so maybe I'm way off base. Among that second tier, do you think any stands head and shoulders above the rest?


To me, Zeller and Olynyk seem markedly better than Plumlee or Gobert. We lose out by trading down.

Edit: I'm betting Dieng goes before #14 as well.

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