Article: Jays just 0.6% chance of making playoffs

[distracted]

Would you put a $1000 on it in a heartbeat? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are not good.

Would you put $1000 at opposite odds that the Jays will miss the playoffs? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are good.

[Schad]

Would you put a $1000 on it in a heartbeat? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are not good.

If I had $1000 to burn and someone offering me 50-1, I'd do it without hesitation, even though I'm hardly of the belief that the team is good enough. Why? 50-1 odds are stupidly long in baseball...BP has us around 13.3-1, and I could be convinced that they're as long as 20-1 or a bit shorter than what they're offering, but at 50-1 the expected value vastly outstrips reality. Hell, if you were to head over to a place where you could find degenerate gamblers with money to blow (say, any high-level poker forum) and you'll have people lining up for that action.

[Santoki]

The only problem with the guys on that list that made the playoffs (besides Reyes) is that none of them are core players, and two of them (Derosa and Blanco) are pretty ungodly terrible.

The only one with any sustained playoff experience (who I think you left off) is Buerhle and Oliver.

[Schad]

Buehrle and Oliver are in there.

But let's look at the reverse. Know how many of the 2008 Rays (who were hovering around .500 in early May) had previous playoff experience? Three of their twelve most-used hitters...Jason Bartlett, Cliff Floyd, and Erick Hinske, whose sole playoff experience was striking out twice the year before. Their rotation? None of their regular five had ever been there. Yet they not only made the playoffs, they made the World Series, winning a tough Game 7 against a veteran Boston side. Number of players with postseason experience prior to 2008 that featured in the starting lineup that day? Just Bartlett. Number for Boston? Eight; Jason Bay was the only newcomer.

Experience is nice; being good at baseball is much better. If we are suitably good at baseball for five months, they'll magically have transformed in front of our eyes into steel-nerved true winners. If they are not good enough at baseball, all of the seances with Winston Churchill and Tom Landry that a $120m payroll can buy won't do it.

[Dr Positivity]

That model is assuming that the way we's played so far is our true talent level and that we'll continuing playing like that going forward (which I don't think anybody believes is the case).

The Jays' odds may be lower now (this model, which gives the Jays a 50/50 chance of winning each game going forward, has them at 11.6%: http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp), but not as low as this article suggests.

Playoffstatus.com has 13%. 12-13% passes the sniff test far more than 0.6% does at the 1/6 point. 0.6% indicates Jays get in 1 every 167 times the season is run from here which is much too high. Even 1 every 20 times seems too high. Maybe one every 8-10

[kwamebargnani]

Would you put a $1000 on it in a heartbeat? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are not good.

Would you put $1000 at opposite odds that the Jays will miss the playoffs? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are good.

I wouldn't only because I barely will make anything.

[DonMega]

Hahahahahhahahahahah I love being right. Before the season started people where calling this team the second coming, luckily I had my excitement or lack thereof because I knew since this is a Toronto team they will most likely disappoint. Boy am I glad I did not jump on the bandwagon and yet again get my heart broken by a garbage Toronto team.

[Randle McMurphy]

Hahahahahhahahahahah I love being right. Before the season started people where calling this team the second coming, luckily I had my excitement or lack thereof because I knew since this is a Toronto team they will most likely disappoint. Boy am I glad I did not jump on the bandwagon and yet again get my heart broken by a garbage Toronto team.

Most of the trolls jumping all over themselves to relish in the team's failure and proclaim how right they were all along are less subtle than this. So at least this guy's unique in that way.

[J-Roc]

Relax guys, we're only 0 - 1 in May. Still 30 days to go in this month.

[Double Helix]

My only concern is that there might be people in the Rogers empire who had their doubts who now feel justified as well.

"Told you we should never spend. What's the point? Toronto fans love prospects and rebuilds because their expectations never get too high and nobody knows how good prospects will be so we can always sell them on the future."

Those are the kinds of words that I hope are never uttered by anybody within Rogers or their offshoot, MLSE. I wanted this gamble by the Jays to give MLSE a potential luxury tax model that they could follow and really showcase that if Toronto acts like a big market city they can win compete for titles. That's what stings the most. I hate reinforcing the idea that it's not worth spending simply because the cons outweigh the pros. That would suck.

[JN]

These probability models are extremely flawed - so not surprised to see Dagger bring it up. They base predictions on team's performance so far. So assuming your current performance, of course winning 90 games would be difficult. It would take a ridiculous level of luck.

But there are other ways to get to 90 games... not just pure luck. For example, improving how you are actually playing to date - SHOCKING!!

[dennistokyo]

Would you put a $1000 on it in a heartbeat? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are not good.

Would you put $1000 at opposite odds that the Jays will miss the playoffs? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are good.

My god, that would pay nothing.

[bballsparkin]

They look bad so it's hard to have faith in the Jays. But really all they need to do is get to .500. Then they can get back in the discussion.

[Graham's Cracker]

They look bad so it's hard to have faith in the Jays. But really all they need to do is get to .500. Then they can get back in the discussion.

Seems easy enough, but like you say hard to have faith they can do anything right the way they're playing.

[Parataxis]

Would you put a $1000 on it in a heartbeat? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are not good.

Would you put $1000 at opposite odds that the Jays will miss the playoffs? Of course you wouldn't because the Jays are good.

My god, that would pay nothing.

It would pay 20 bucks. And if you're so convinced that it's a sure thing, why wouldn't you?

[dennistokyo]

Because it's just not worth the effort. Look, to the sensitive fans here, I'd love for them to make the playoffs, but you have to admit, they playing like garbage and they have a ton of holes.

[Parataxis]

Because it's just not worth the effort. Look, to the sensitive fans here, I'd love for them to make the playoffs, but you have to admit, they playing like garbage and they have a ton of holes.

Dear sweet hell, how much money do you make that $20 for 30 seconds of effort is not enough?

Or maybe, you're just talking shizz.

[dennistokyo]

Because it's just not worth the effort. Look, to the sensitive fans here, I'd love for them to make the playoffs, but you have to admit, they playing like garbage and they have a ton of holes.

Dear sweet hell, how much money do you make that $20 for 30 seconds of effort is not enough?

Or maybe, you're just talking shizz.

It's not 30 seconds. I'd have to wait until the end of September. You're still sensitive that people are suggesting the obvious: the Jays aren't as good as promised.

[kwamebargnani]

what Parataxis is thinking

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA