Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Benjammin]

If available, I would take CJM at 14. I agree w/the Withey pick at #21. It also gives us the ability to move a couple of guys off the roster either for salary relief purposes or to acquire a pick in 2014.

I highly, highly doubt CJM would be there at 14. If you'd like to make a little friendly wager on it, I'm all in. This idea of trading back for more picks sounds appealing, but the NBA is not the NFL. Just because our GM struggles with player selection doesn't mean quantity is better than quality.

In general, I agree with you. Take the quality over quantity. But in this draft, my concern is that the talent value drops a tier just before we pick, but the tier we're in remains relatively even talentwise all the way down to the 14-15 range. Basically, we'd still be getting the same tier of talent at #14 that we would get at #8.

Let's assume the following 7 players go first (in any order):
Noel
McLemore
Porter
Bennett
Burke
Len
Oladipo

After that, the next tier includes:
McCollum
Zeller
Olynyk
Dieng
Carter-Martin
Plumlee
Gobert
Muhammed

And Dieng doesn't seem to rank that high within the group so he would probably be there at #14. Basically, I think Dieng is as good as any of the other guys in that tier, so #14 isn't really worse than #8.

All that said, I do not profess to be great at analyzing talent in the draft, so maybe I'm way off base. Among that second tier, do you think any stands head and shoulders above the rest?

I like Dieng and at 14 would be good value, but I don't like him as much as some. Having those seven off the board would be the worst case scenario and it's quite possible. I think I would probably take McCollum in that case. I'd love to feel better about Zeller or Olynyk or even Muhammad. 21 looks like an international potpourri which doesn't excite me

[AFM]

We aren't going to be picking 8th anyway. We have the only gay player on our team and we are Les Boullets. Stern will reward us with #5 for Collins' bravery and our fans' persistence.

[pancakes3]

I think Steve Adams is an underrated prospect. People were losing their minds for Mitch McGary but under similar circumstances I think Adams could have done similar things. At any rate, he has much better upside than the other older prospects in the mid-1st and physically and statistically speaking he grades out nicely. A solid if not spectacular C - Bogut-esque.

[Benjammin]

We aren't going to be picking 8th anyway. We have the only gay player on our team and we are Les Boullets. Stern will reward us with #5 for Collins' bravery and our fans' persistence.

100% impossible. These are the only possible draft slots because the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, or 11. 9, 10, or 11, would be if one or more teams behind the Wizards jumps up into the top 3.

[sfam]

In the NFL draft, unless you're going for an RGIII type talent, it almost always makes better sense to trade down, as you almost need all 53 quality players to compete. In the NBA, you can get away with 8 or 9 quality players, so trading down for more picks makes little sense. Trading up or trading picks for proven talent (or perhaps to remove bad contracts) is almost always the way to go. If we could package our seconds this year and our second from next year to move up to the first round to select another pick, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But moving back from #8 to #14 and #21 seems like a real missed opportunity to take a chance on a potential impact player (or potential starter) in hopes of finding two role players.

[sfam]

We aren't going to be picking 8th anyway. We have the only gay player on our team and we are Les Boullets. Stern will reward us with #5 for Collins' bravery and our fans' persistence.

100% impossible. These are the only possible draft slots because the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, or 11. 9, 10, or 11, would be if one or more teams behind the Wizards jumps up into the top 3.

I love it! We agree to resign Collins and get the Stern "fair bounce" to the third pick! Sign Collins to a multi year deal post haste!

[verbal8]

In the NBA, you can get away with 8 or 9 quality players, so trading down for more picks makes little sense. Trading up or trading picks for proven talent (or perhaps to remove bad contracts) is almost always the way to go. If we could package our seconds this year and our second from next year to move up to the first round to select another pick, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But moving back from #8 to #14 and #21 seems like a real missed opportunity to take a chance on a potential impact player (or potential starter) in hopes of finding two role players.

I agree in general. I see 5 impact players in this draft: Noel, Len, McLemore, Porter and Burke. The chances are pretty good that some of the role players are very good.

The 8th pick historically(last 12 years) looks pretty underwhelming:

8th picks:
2012 Terrence Ross Washington Toronto
2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland

14th pick:
2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee
2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston
2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston
2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix
2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden
2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah
2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota
2004 Kris Humphries MinnesotaFr. Utah
2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle
2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana
2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State
2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit

21st pick:
2012 Jared Sullinger Ohio State Boston
2011 Nolan Smith Duke Portland
2010 Craig Brackins Iowa State Oklahoma
2009 Darren Collison UCLA New Orleans
2008 Ryan Anderson California New Jersey
2007 Daequan Cook Ohio St. Philadelphia
2006 Rajon Rondo Kentucky Boston
2005 Nate Robinson Wash. Jr. Phoenix
2004 Pavel Podkolzine Russia 1985 Dallas
2003 Boris Diaw France 1982 Atlanta
2002 Qyntel Woods Northeast CC So. Portland
2001 Brendan Haywood North Carolina Sr. Cleveland
2000 Morris Peterson Michigan St. Sr. Toronto

[nate33]

In the NBA, you can get away with 8 or 9 quality players, so trading down for more picks makes little sense. Trading up or trading picks for proven talent (or perhaps to remove bad contracts) is almost always the way to go. If we could package our seconds this year and our second from next year to move up to the first round to select another pick, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But moving back from #8 to #14 and #21 seems like a real missed opportunity to take a chance on a potential impact player (or potential starter) in hopes of finding two role players.

I agree in general. I see 5 impact players in this draft: Noel, Len, McLemore, Porter and Burke. The chances are pretty good that some of the role players are very good.

The 8th pick historically(last 12 years) looks pretty underwhelming:

8th picks:
2012 Terrence Ross Washington Toronto
2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland

14th pick:
2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee
2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston
2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston
2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix
2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden
2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah
2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota
2004 Kris Humphries MinnesotaFr. Utah
2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle
2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana
2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State
2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit

21st pick:
2012 Jared Sullinger Ohio State Boston
2011 Nolan Smith Duke Portland
2010 Craig Brackins Iowa State Oklahoma
2009 Darren Collison UCLA New Orleans
2008 Ryan Anderson California New Jersey
2007 Daequan Cook Ohio St. Philadelphia
2006 Rajon Rondo Kentucky Boston
2005 Nate Robinson Wash. Jr. Phoenix
2004 Pavel Podkolzine Russia 1985 Dallas
2003 Boris Diaw France 1982 Atlanta
2002 Qyntel Woods Northeast CC So. Portland
2001 Brendan Haywood North Carolina Sr. Cleveland
2000 Morris Peterson Michigan St. Sr. Toronto

Interesting.

I'd certainly take Team 1421 over Team 8:

Team 1421:
PG Rajon Rondo/Luke Ridnoir
SG Ronnie Brewer/Nate Robinson
SF Al Thornton/Mo Pete
PF Ryan Anderson/Troy Murphy
C Brendan Haywood/John Henson

That's a playoff team if everyone is in their prime.


Team 8
PG TJ Ford/Brandon Knight
SG Jamaal Crawford/Terrence Ross
SF Rudy Gay/Aminu
PF Jordan Hill/Chris Wilcox
C Desagana Diop/Channing Frye

Bottom feeders who can only win if Crawford or Gay are hitting bad shots.

[sfam]

Clearly there are good players available later, I just think the chances of EG acquiring one aren't very good. At #8, he will have a harder time not finding a contributing role player, whereas he will have a great chance of picking developmental players with potentially big upsides at 14 and 21. That translates to them giving us very little production this year. Given the comments coming out from various people in the Wizards organization, I'd be surprised if they decided to trade down to get more picks. Far more likely is they keep the #8 or trade it for a vet (Kanter?), and they either Eurostash the second round picks or trade them for cash.

[mhd]

I think one of Len or Bennett will fall to us. Detroit is NOT taking a big. They are desperate of wing help. Ditto the Kings (they traded for Patterson, have Thompson & Hayes signed longterm). The Kings also need wing help. Shabaaz and Oladipo should both be gone by the time we pick b/c of that.

[Dat2U]

It's really coming down to Kelly Olynyk, Alex Len & C.J. McCollum for me. All have their flaws but should contribute in some way.

Olynyk offensively has a complete offensive skillset. You can't say that about a lot of bigs. His skillls should translate well to the next level.

Olynyk is probably the best offensive player in the NBA draft. Others may have more upside but right now he's ready to step and contribute offensively in an NBA setting.

The unanswered question is whether his defensive & rebounding can be passable enough at the next level. He likely needs to be paired with a Serge Ibaka type PF.

Alex Len is a solid prospect. The situation at Maryland didn't bring the best out of him but I noticed he really went out of his way to make an impact in certain games. Especially against the better competition. I think he may be a bit immature but he's a better prospect than Meyers Leonard, the 11th pick of last years draft who showed flashes of ability this past season with Portland.

C.J. McCollum is not quite on the level of Damian Lillard but he may be the best shot creator in this draft. He also should have the quicks the be more impacful on the defensive end of the court than Lillard. A safe bet IMO.

[DCZards]

I think one of Len or Bennett will fall to us. Detroit is NOT taking a big. They are desperate of wing help. Ditto the Kings (they traded for Patterson, have Thompson & Hayes signed longterm). The Kings also need wing help. Shabaaz and Oladipo should both be gone by the time we pick b/c of that.

I like your thinking, mhd, because Bennett and Len are the two players that I most want for the Zards...other than Noel, McLemore and Porter who will almost certainly be gone by pick #8. I also agree with Nate though that these are the top 7 picks currently. The only quibble I might have is with Oladipo who I think is the most likely one of these players to fall. I'm betting that Shabazz goes ahead of VO.

Noel
McLemore
Porter
Bennett
Burke
Len
Oladipo

I agree with those who would trade the 8th pick for the 14th and 21st pick, especially if the 7 guys above are all gone by the time the Zards draft at 8. In this draft, I think you could get almost as good a player with the 14th pick as you'd get with the 8th pick...so getting the 14th pick as well would be a real plus. But I doubt that a trade like that goes down...that's a trade that is more likely to happen in the NFL draft as others have pointed out.

[dandridge 10]

I think one of Len or Bennett will fall to us. Detroit is NOT taking a big. They are desperate of wing help. Ditto the Kings (they traded for Patterson, have Thompson & Hayes signed longterm). The Kings also need wing help. Shabaaz and Oladipo should both be gone by the time we pick b/c of that.

I like your thinking, mhd, because Bennett and Len are the two players that I most want for the Zards...other than Noel, McLemore and Porter who will almost certainly be gone by pick #8. I also agree with Nate though that these are the top 7 picks currently. The only quibble I might have is with Oladipo who I think is the most likely one of these players to fall. I'm betting that Shabazz goes ahead of VO.

Noel
McLemore
Porter
Bennett
Burke
Len
Oladipo

I agree with those who would trade the 8th pick for the 14th and 21st pick, especially if the 7 guys above are all gone by the time the Zards draft at 8. In this draft, I think you could get almost as good a player with the 14th pick as you'd get with the 8th pick...so getting the 14th pick as well would be a real plus. But I doubt that a trade like that goes down...that's a trade that is more likely to happen in the NFL draft as others have pointed out.

I think there is zero chance that the Wizards are going to trade the pick for more draft picks. In fact, I will be shocked if the Wizard keep the pick. Given the Wizards success in the second half of the season and knowing EG, he is going to try to package some of our current players with the pick to get back a vet who can contribute now. Not saying that this is the right move....only that its the type of move EG will make.

[Floater]

We don't need MORE young players on this team. At max, 2 players from this draft makes the team. No way in hell we trade down to get more 1st rounders. If anything, we'll trade our pick for a solid vet. If a trade with that pick goes down, it's way more likely its for a vet than for more picks. You can only develop so many players at a time and we're pretty terrible at it to begin with.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

It's really coming down to Kelly Olynyk, Alex Len & C.J. McCollum for me. All have their flaws but should contribute in some way.

Olynyk offensively has a complete offensive skillset. You can't say that about a lot of bigs. His skillls should translate well to the next level.

Olynyk is probably the best offensive player in the NBA draft. Others may have more upside but right now he's ready to step and contribute offensively in an NBA setting.

The unanswered question is whether his defensive & rebounding can be passable enough at the next level. He likely needs to be paired with a Serge Ibaka type PF.

Alex Len is a solid prospect. The situation at Maryland didn't bring the best out of him but I noticed he really went out of his way to make an impact in certain games. Especially against the better competition. I think he may be a bit immature but he's a better prospect than Meyers Leonard, the 11th pick of last years draft who showed flashes of ability this past season with Portland.

C.J. McCollum is not quite on the level of Damian Lillard but he may be the best shot creator in this draft. He also should have the quicks the be more impacful on the defensive end of the court than Lillard. A safe bet IMO.

I guess one very slight concern I may have with drafting Olynyk is the potential for skillset overlap with Seraphin. Good offensive game from center, not much in the way of defense or rebounding. Wouldn't not draft him for that reason, but of the center prospects in the draft, Olynyk seems the most similar to Seraphin IMO. Dieng may actually be the more complete player, and for that reason more likely to eventually become a starter rather than a role/bench player.

[truwizfan4evr]

Here's Victor Oladipo workout video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA

[fishercob]

Here's Victor Oladipo workout video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA

Needs to work on making his shot fake more credible. Slow it down a beat, eyes on the rim.

[verbal8]

I guess one very slight concern I may have with drafting Olynyk is the potential for skillset overlap with Seraphin. Good offensive game from center, not much in the way of defense or rebounding. Wouldn't not draft him for that reason, but of the center prospects in the draft, Olynyk seems the most similar to Seraphin IMO. Dieng may actually be the more complete player, and for that reason more likely to eventually become a starter rather than a role/bench player.

Other than Wall and Beal none of the young Wizards have shown enough that they should influence the Wizard's draft plans.

[nate33]

It's really coming down to Kelly Olynyk, Alex Len & C.J. McCollum for me. All have their flaws but should contribute in some way.

Olynyk offensively has a complete offensive skillset. You can't say that about a lot of bigs. His skillls should translate well to the next level.

Olynyk is probably the best offensive player in the NBA draft. Others may have more upside but right now he's ready to step and contribute offensively in an NBA setting.

The unanswered question is whether his defensive & rebounding can be passable enough at the next level. He likely needs to be paired with a Serge Ibaka type PF.

Alex Len is a solid prospect. The situation at Maryland didn't bring the best out of him but I noticed he really went out of his way to make an impact in certain games. Especially against the better competition. I think he may be a bit immature but he's a better prospect than Meyers Leonard, the 11th pick of last years draft who showed flashes of ability this past season with Portland.

C.J. McCollum is not quite on the level of Damian Lillard but he may be the best shot creator in this draft. He also should have the quicks the be more impacful on the defensive end of the court than Lillard. A safe bet IMO.

I'm just not comfortable drafting a big man who doesn't project to be a good defender. It's too hard to make up for the deficiency. For that reason, I'd take Len over Olynyk without thinking twice. If it comes down to those 3, I'd go Len, then McCollum, then Olynyk. It looks pretty likely that at least one of Len or McCollum will be there so we should be in pretty good shape.

[mhd]

Mock as of today:

1) Magic-Noel (don't see any player they'd pick over him. Maybe they trade down for Burke)
2) Bobcats-Mclemore (Replaces Henderson (who is a FA)
3) Cavs-Porter (slam dunk pick if available)
4) Suns-Oladipo (Comes down to Shabaaz vs. Oladipo vs. Len, and they go with Oladipo who fills needs on defensive wings and slashing)
5) NO-Burke (Vasquez is a soon-to-be FA, Rivers was awful last year, may trade Gordon)
6) Kings-Shabaaz (Need perimeter scoring and Tyreke is a FA)
7) Det-Bennett (no wings left, take BPA as Bennett can be a 3rd big, could see Mccollum here)
8) Wiz-Len