Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[fishercob]

Mock as of today:

1) Magic-Noel (don't see any player they'd pick over him. Maybe they trade down for Burke)
2) Bobcats-Mclemore (Replaces Henderson (who is a FA)
3) Cavs-Porter (slam dunk pick if available)
4) Suns-Oladipo (Comes down to Shabaaz vs. Oladipo vs. Len, and they go with Oladipo who fills needs on defensive wings and slashing)
5) NO-Burke (Vasquez is a soon-to-be FA, Rivers was awful last year, may trade Gordon)
6) Kings-Shabaaz (Need perimeter scoring and Tyreke is a FA)
7) Det-Bennett (no wings left, take BPA as Bennett can be a 3rd big, could see Mccollum here)
8) Wiz-Len

I think that's wishful thinking with Phoenix. I think they take Len and tank hard for the '14 draft.

[Deeptu McPullup]

The 8th pick historically(last 12 years) looks pretty underwhelming:

8th picks:
2012 Terrence Ross Washington Toronto
2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland

If we throw in the 9th and 10th picks looking at the guys that were passed directly in our slot, Nate33's Octapick team is suddenly gob-smakced with game changers:

notable 9th and 10th picks From 2001-2012:
Andre Drummond
Gordon Hayward
Paul George
Brook Lopez
Joakim Noah
Andrew Bynum
Andre Igoudala
Amare Stoudemire
Caron Butler
Joe Johnson

Not sure what a similar parsing of the 14th and 21st would turn up, but that list gets you a top four seed if these guys are your second best player (roughly; Hayward should be 3rd best, STAT could be best and so forth).

So, a superficial examination of recent history suggests that one very solid player who makes at least an All-Star game or two will go somewhere between 8th and 10th, though there's also lots of busts.

[WizardsWorld]

We aren't going to be picking 8th anyway. We have the only gay player on our team and we are Les Boullets. Stern will reward us with #5 for Collins' bravery and our fans' persistence.

100% impossible. These are the only possible draft slots because the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, or 11. 9, 10, or 11, would be if one or more teams behind the Wizards jumps up into the top 3.

True. But if we assure Stern ahead of time that we will resign Jason Collins in the offseason I think he might let us have the #3. Then we could welcome Porter with open arms.

[Rafael122]

It's really coming down to Kelly Olynyk, Alex Len & C.J. McCollum for me. All have their flaws but should contribute in some way.

Olynyk offensively has a complete offensive skillset. You can't say that about a lot of bigs. His skillls should translate well to the next level.

Olynyk is probably the best offensive player in the NBA draft. Others may have more upside but right now he's ready to step and contribute offensively in an NBA setting.

The unanswered question is whether his defensive & rebounding can be passable enough at the next level. He likely needs to be paired with a Serge Ibaka type PF.

Alex Len is a solid prospect. The situation at Maryland didn't bring the best out of him but I noticed he really went out of his way to make an impact in certain games. Especially against the better competition. I think he may be a bit immature but he's a better prospect than Meyers Leonard, the 11th pick of last years draft who showed flashes of ability this past season with Portland.

C.J. McCollum is not quite on the level of Damian Lillard but he may be the best shot creator in this draft. He also should have the quicks the be more impacful on the defensive end of the court than Lillard. A safe bet IMO.

I like those two, Len would be my odd man out. CJ is a senior, and something Wall said after the season was that they can't get younger. CJ and Wall are probably the same age, so it's technically not getting younger. Considering our backcourt situation, CJ could fill the role of backup point or 2 guard, with Temple being the 5th guard in the rotation.

[Dark Faze]

I'm just not comfortable drafting a big man who doesn't project to be a good defender. It's too hard to make up for the deficiency. For that reason, I'd take Len over Olynyk without thinking twice. If it comes down to those 3, I'd go Len, then McCollum, then Olynyk. It looks pretty likely that at least one of Len or McCollum will be there so we should be in pretty good shape.

I haven't seen a lot of evidence that Alex is that much better than Olynyk in terms of defense though. Olynyk has a better DRTG and while I don't think that means he's better than Len defensively (he isn't), I don't think that its by a margin big enough to make up for his considerably superior talents on offense. Rebounding as well is not something Len is much better than Olynyk at, both had identical true rebound percentages.

My whole thing is that with the way this draft is I'd rather just take the tremendously skilled offensive player with great advanced stats and eye tests and grab my purely defensive player with a trade up in the form of Deing or Withey ( I actually think WIthey is better than Len defensively).

Right now for me I want either Oladipo or Olynyk. I think either could be super useful to make sure we have a consistent form of quality on the court for 48 minutes.

Edit: The whole Wall/Player stance of "we don't need to get younger" is kind of crazy considering what Beal has added to the team as a 19 year old. I think the main focus is just getting non-projects and more guys who can contribute right away like Beal did.

[hands11]

Some more notes on Noel and Len:

I took a look at their advanced stats this season.

Noel's vs. Len's

Noel is a little better in PER, TS%, DRB%, and significantly better in block and steal percentage.

Len is better ORB%, AST%, TO%, is higher usage, and has a better ORtg. Their overall rebounding percentages are very close.

I know Noel is very young, but Len is just a baby too. And I think some of Noel's youth-related upside is dulled by his injury history. To me, Len's physical attributes provide more upside because he's so much bigger and his frame can likely sustain a lot more weight.

Noel's upside seems to be like a Tyson Chandler or maybe Ibaka if he can develop a lot on offense -- a disruptive athletic defender who protects the rim. Len appears to be more in the Marc Gasol, Hibbert mold -- huge, skilled 2-way guy whose impact on defense is felt through taking up space and being in the right spot due to size/quickness/anticipation combination.

They could both be great players and could both bust -- depends on how hard they work, injuries, and luck. I continue to lean towards Len.

I kind of look at Len like this. You are looking to purchase something. Anything really, doesn't matter. You go in and look at your options. You find the most expensive item then you look at the item that is price just below that. If you buy that item, you rarely go wrong. If you go for the top items, you are usually happy but you over pay for what you get.

The top priced items always comes with a premium. The second item is often nearly as good and often better in some features.

I find this to be true with Sony and Panasonic. The Sony items is usually more expensive and comes with a fluff factor. The Panasonic items usually had more of the features I really wanted and cost less.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We aren't going to be picking 8th anyway. We have the only gay player on our team and we are Les Boullets. Stern will reward us with #5 for Collins' bravery and our fans' persistence.

100% impossible. These are the only possible draft slots because the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, or 11. 9, 10, or 11, would be if one or more teams behind the Wizards jumps up into the top 3.

It seems like this is a year the Wizards get lucky. I won't be totally shocked if they get the 2 or 3 pick.

[Dark Faze]

Unfortunately if we get the 2nd or 3rd we probably take the same guy we would have at 9th or 10th

[sfam]

Unfortunately if we get the 2nd or 3rd we probably take the same guy we would have at 9th or 10th

If we get the 2nd or 3rd, we take either Porter or Bennet. I just don't see Bennet being there at 9th or 10th.

[Rafael122]

Yeah, Porter would be the pick, and would make the decision on Webster a whole lot easier.

[mhd]

If we got the 2nd or 3rd and Noel was gone, I'd look to trade down and pick up assets for next year. For example,
I'd trade our pick (2nd or 3rd) along with Ves for Ramon Sessions and Portland's AND Detroit's future 1sts that Bobcats have.

[pancakes3]

A lotto pick this year for a top 3 protected next year while allowing us to dump Ves for backcourt depth would be spectacular. The only problem is that with or without Ves, we'd still be thin at PF/C. Luckily there are tons of quality bigs in this draft.

[fishercob]

Fran Fraschilla has been reading my posts. He just came out with a Noel vs. Len piece for ESPN Insider.

Key highlights:


FF talks about Noel's positives -- elite shotblocking, great hands, etc. BUt...

Noel, with his slight frame, was mauled at times by physical SEC big men (who are marginal NBA prospects) like Florida's Patric Young and Tennessee's Jarnell Stokes. In fact, I was surprised to see how often Kentucky either double-teamed in the post or dug the ball out of there with their guards to protect Noel in one-on-one situations.

As an NBA big man, Noel will spend a lot of time defending in screen-and-roll situations on the perimeter. On those plays in college, I thought Noel's footwork and lateral quickness were average at best, and belied what is supposed to be elite athletic ability.

Len, at 7-1 and 250 pounds, has prototype NBA center size and he is a good athlete for his size and age (he'll turn 20 years old just 11 days before the draft). While improved strength would be a welcome addition, he has already added nearly 40 pounds since arriving in College Park, and there's room for 25 more, according to his coaching staff.

In addition, Len has very good hands, is quick off his feet and has a good touch around the basket. He has a face-up game that is evolving and good first-step quickness off the lane against similarly sized players. I believe he will have more space to operate within the NBA, as well.

Len, despite his length, is not a prolific shot blocker. A block rate of 8 percent placed him in the top 70 college players. I was impressed, however, with how well he moved his feet in defending screen-and-roll situations, even though he played the second part of the season on what appeared to be a badly sprained ankle.

This is a tougher call than it looks. Again, Noel is a safe selection. Few will criticize a team for taking him, in part, because conventional wisdom has had him going No.1 or No. 2 all season long. If a team wants to try to hit a home run, Len could be their guy.

I love Noel's one-tool elite shot-blocking ability, but if I'm making the pick, I'd swing for the fences with Len.

This piece is interesting in combo with Chad Ford's latest lotto-mock. He still has Len slipping to us at 8 or 9 in the large majority of scenarios. At the end of the day, I think Len will rise; I'd be surprised to see Phoenix settle on Oladipo over him. I could see Charlotte and New Orleans taking him depending on where they landed as well.

[pancakes3]

Noel, with his slight frame, was mauled at times by physical SEC big men (who are marginal NBA prospects) like Florida's Patric Young and Tennessee's Jarnell Stokes. In fact, I was surprised to see how often Kentucky either double-teamed in the post or dug the ball out of there with their guards to protect Noel in one-on-one situations.

As an NBA big man, Noel will spend a lot of time defending in screen-and-roll situations on the perimeter. On those plays in college, I thought Noel's footwork and lateral quickness were average at best, and belied what is supposed to be elite athletic ability.

It's also worth noting that in the Tennessee game, Stokes fouled out in 16 minutes of play while Noel went on to put up 10pts/9reb/6blk/4st/2ast. The lone game where Noel faced Young, was the very game he hurt himself in and Young did most of his damage against Cauley-Stein.

I'm not trying to dispute FF, but Noel's thinness is apparent almost immediately and hardly insightful. He's not a beefy Andrew Bogut type player that Len is. However, there is room to grow there and hell look at what Ewing started out at and where he ended up. Noel has his strengths and weaknesses like any other player. It's just that the upside, especially in today's game - being able to deter penetrating guards outweighs the downside - being unable to body up on a physical low post option.

I mean, look at Ibaka. 1st team all-D getting gooned by Asik. And I think Noel would be a better man defender than ibaka.

However, I think it's almost a certainty that Len will shoot up the draft boards after he's measured. His physical stature is... immense.

[Dark Faze]

lulz

Fran Fraschilla was in love with Vesely

Nuff said

[Knighthonor]

We aren't going to be picking 8th anyway. We have the only gay player on our team and we are Les Boullets. Stern will reward us with #5 for Collins' bravery and our fans' persistence.

100% impossible. These are the only possible draft slots because the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, or 11. 9, 10, or 11, would be if one or more teams behind the Wizards jumps up into the top 3.

True. But if we assure Stern ahead of time that we will resign Jason Collins in the offseason I think he might let us have the #3. Then we could welcome Porter with open arms.

This

[Knighthonor]

lulz

Fran Fraschilla was in love with Vesely

Nuff said

This and more this!!!!!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Fran Fraschilla has been reading my posts. He just came out with a Noel vs. Len piece for ESPN Insider.

Key highlights:


FF talks about Noel's positives -- elite shotblocking, great hands, etc. BUt...

Noel, with his slight frame, was mauled at times by physical SEC big men (who are marginal NBA prospects) like Florida's Patric Young and Tennessee's Jarnell Stokes. In fact, I was surprised to see how often Kentucky either double-teamed in the post or dug the ball out of there with their guards to protect Noel in one-on-one situations.

As an NBA big man, Noel will spend a lot of time defending in screen-and-roll situations on the perimeter. On those plays in college, I thought Noel's footwork and lateral quickness were average at best, and belied what is supposed to be elite athletic ability.

Len, at 7-1 and 250 pounds, has prototype NBA center size and he is a good athlete for his size and age (he'll turn 20 years old just 11 days before the draft). While improved strength would be a welcome addition, he has already added nearly 40 pounds since arriving in College Park, and there's room for 25 more, according to his coaching staff.

In addition, Len has very good hands, is quick off his feet and has a good touch around the basket. He has a face-up game that is evolving and good first-step quickness off the lane against similarly sized players. I believe he will have more space to operate within the NBA, as well.

Len, despite his length, is not a prolific shot blocker. A block rate of 8 percent placed him in the top 70 college players. I was impressed, however, with how well he moved his feet in defending screen-and-roll situations, even though he played the second part of the season on what appeared to be a badly sprained ankle.

This is a tougher call than it looks. Again, Noel is a safe selection. Few will criticize a team for taking him, in part, because conventional wisdom has had him going No.1 or No. 2 all season long. If a team wants to try to hit a home run, Len could be their guy.

I love Noel's one-tool elite shot-blocking ability, but if I'm making the pick, I'd swing for the fences with Len.

This piece is interesting in combo with Chad Ford's latest lotto-mock. He still has Len slipping to us at 8 or 9 in the large majority of scenarios. At the end of the day, I think Len will rise; I'd be surprised to see Phoenix settle on Oladipo over him. I could see Charlotte and New Orleans taking him depending on where they landed as well.

A GM of another team might realize how badly the Wizards want Len. Suppose a GM knows his team will select CJM but they have a pick between three and seven, where Len figures to be picked.

That GM could suggest swapping picks if the Wizards include Seraphin. At number eight they could still select CJM but also they get a backup C for nothing.

[Dark Faze]

With the tools available to us to trade up (future picks, young players, expirings) I don't see how you can justify drafting Len in the top 8 with guys like Dieng, Withey and Steven Adams available with late picks who probably have the same defensive ceiling as him.

If you want to play it safe and get a guy who will likely help the team through two contracts then Porter and Oladipo and Burke are probably the safest bets.

Were I GM I'd probably draft Oladipo, retain Ariza, Webster and Okafor through Nenes contract, trade any combo of Booker, Vesely, maybe a protected future pick for Dieng, and use whatever free agency savings we have to extend Webster (2 year deal) and get a quality backup PG.

Wall
Beal
Webster
Nene
Okafor

Bench
Preferrably Jack, Collison or Mayo
Oladipo
Ariza
Seraphin
Dieng

That team can survive a lot of injuries and is pretty deep and strong defensively.

[nate33]

With the tools available to us to trade up (future picks, young players, expirings) I don't see how you can justify drafting Len in the top 8 with guys like Dieng, Withey and Steven Adams available with late picks who probably have the same defensive ceiling as him.

If you want to play it safe and get a guy who will likely help the team through two contracts then Porter and Oladipo and Burke are probably the safest bets.

Were I GM I'd probably draft Oladipo, retain Ariza, Webster and Okafor through Nenes contract, trade any combo of Booker, Vesely, maybe a protected future pick for Dieng, and use whatever free agency savings we have to extend Webster (2 year deal) and get a quality backup PG.

Wall
Beal
Webster
Nene
Okafor

Bench
Preferrably Jack, Collison or Mayo
Oladipo
Ariza
Seraphin
Dieng

That team can survive a lot of injuries and is pretty deep and strong defensively.

We don't have enough cap exceptions to sign both Webster and a veteran combo guard.

Also, I don't think a combo of Booker and Vesely has any trade value at all. At the very least it would have to be Seraphin and a protected pick for Dieng