stevemcqueen1 wrote:There aren't good defensive metrics though, you have to rely on the eye test for it. To my eye, Len is a much better defender than Olynyk. So is Zeller. Noel, Withey, and Dieng stand apart in defensive ability, then guys like Zeller, Porter, and Len are about the same level. Then there is a very very wide gulf in ability level to Olynyk. Everyone else except Bennett is a good defender. Olynyk looks demonstrably bad. At least Bennett is powerful and covers the perimeter fairly well and is a good shot blocker. Olynyk was easy to torch and doesn't really do anything well on defense except slide over to offer weak side help, but he's not a shot blocker. I just don't think he's going to be a very good defender in the NBA, and I am certain he's going to be a lousy rebounder.
Zeller will have issues defensively. He struggles with size as much as any big in the draft. Withey will have issues dealing with strength as well. Bennett was a complete no show on defensive end last year. Giving him any credit is basically telling a lie. He was complete dog on that side of the court. Maybe he has tools to be a good defender but how in world would anyone ever know?
Olynyk posted an total rebound rate of 16.5%. The same as Len. That's also better than Zeller (15.8%), Bennett (16.3%), Withey (15.5%) and falls a bit short of Noel (16.8%) & Dieng (17.5%). Of course you have to take level of competition into consideration (with exception to Bennett) but saying he certainly going to be a "lousy rebounder" may be going a step too far.
stevemcqueen1 wrote:I don't agree that Olynyk is the most skilled offensive player in the class either. Numbers aren't enough to make that case for him. I think Burke and Zeller are both better offensive players and I think Shabazz and Bennett are the best scorers in the class. Olynyk piled up his numbers in his one big time year in a mid major conference while Burke and Zeller did their thing as younger players in the best conference in CBB. Shabazz isn't a passer or ball handler and so has a limited offensive skill set in that regard. But he's easily the toolsiest scorer in the class, the only player aside from Bennett with a powerful inside--outside game that will probably translate smoothly.
It's talked about at length at how Olynyk transformed his body & game over the last year. Now people want to hold that against him? IMO, I give him higher marks for showing that type of dedication in college.
You can make a case for Burke but the further away Zeller is from the basket, the more he struggles. He didn't really show any range. He doesn't have the offensive versatility to step out and be effective away from the basket and Olynyk is just as good around the rim as Zeller is .
Shabazz doesn't belong in the conversation. You basically admitted it yourself when you said he isn't a passer or ball-handler. I don't know what "toolsiest" means but unless it stands for ability to create and miss bad shots it's probably not the right word. And will Shabazz's game translate as smoothly to the next level as it did in CBB? If so, I want no parts of him.
stevemcqueen1 wrote:There's good reason to believe Olynyk won't be nearly as productive offensively in the NBA. For one thing, there is a near total lack of explosion to his game. He's an agile and graceful player and when he gets rolling he's a good open court runner. But you'd have trouble sliding a piece of paper under him when he leaps and he is just soooo slow. He takes forever gathering himself to change directions and pivots through his post moves so slowly. He's not an overpowering player yet either. He was able to light up a lower level of competition in the WAC where he didn't face any other NBA size or athleticism, but how is that going to translate to the NBA when he's facing a whole different world of speed and strength? Can he get by anyone?
I never understood the arguments against 7-0 footers who weren't explosive. Do people actually know how many explosive 7-0 footers are actually in the league? Dwight in his prime, Andre Drummond, Javale (ha!) .. and ummm... ummm. Let me think about it....umm, DeAndre Jordan??? Get my point? If your 7-0 you don't need to be an athletic freak. The list is endless. A 37 yr old Tim Duncan (at 6-11), Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Nikola Pekovic, Greg Monroe (many here made the same argument: he wasn't athletic enough), Roy Hibbert and on an on...
And you make Olynyk sound like a plodder and he isn't. In a lot of ways he's like young Andray. He moves well around the court well and plays smooth but he's not necessarily the lightest on his feet & doesn't have much lift.
stevemcqueen1 wrote:You need your big to play solid defense and rebound as much as any attribute. If he can't rebound, he needs to be able to box out and make a big contribution to team rebounding. Olynyk is a below average defender and rebounder IMO.
He's two and three years older than the other top big man prospects, Zeller, Len, and Noel. He actually has less of a history of good production than Zeller, with just the one year. And he played in a much lesser conference than those three. Olynyk is a 20s pick at best in a normal year IMO, he's only getting pushed up in talk because the class is so horrible. Plus Mark Few players have an awful track record in the NBA. Whose the best out of his program, Ronny Turiaf? They're CBB darlings that don't do jack in the NBA.
Olynyk has far more skill than all the prospects you named. And it's not a given that any of those guys will ever catch up to where Olynyk is right now. Age is a bigger consideration if he's beating up on kids with a grown man body. Olynyk is beating guys with skill. I believe skill translates to the next level.
