doclinkin wrote:Olynyk, I dunno. He's big enough, long enough, has some skill. Not bad. A legit center who is a little more proficient than just an 80's style Big White Stiff. But unlike Zeller's footspeed I don't see that Kelly has any one talent that beats his match-up in any significant way at the next level. Not bigger nor quicker nor more skilled nor longer. Sure he could have a decent career as a back-up big, occasional starter, but I don't what separates him from say Bucknell's big Mike Muscala, who can use the glass, hit over both shoulders, hit a jumper, and actually rebounded well in his own small conference schedule. (Caveat being: Elias Harris is an underrated rebounder and likely depressed KO's numbers on that front somewhat).
Worse though, neither one strikes me as a decent interior defender at the next level, a primary role for Bigs on successful squads. So I'm less interested in settling for either. If required to select between the two I think I'd take the upside of Zeller over the more polished Olynyk.
But if that's the pick, I'd rather trade down and pull Gorgui Dieng and another pick or a prospect.
A few points of argument--
1. Olynyk has tools that would kill a lot of modern bigs on the offensive end--foot speed is overrated. The thing Olynyk has is that he's extremely well coordinated, long, and knows how to exaggerate contact and finish. Think of guys like Dirk and Paul Pierce who aren't amazingly fast, but are great at "getting the bump".
The main difference I see between Zeller and Olynyk is that Zeller tries to beat guys moreso with his athleticism than with smarts. Just watch the DX draft videos--Zellers finishes are often a little wild and uncontrolled, he's usually going chest to chest with guys and then getting to the line. It's going to be much tougher to finish over NBA bigs who are much stronger.
Olynyk on the other hand is "sliding off" of defenders. He's acutely aware of his own length and position on the floor, and he'll use his body to shield the defender and use his length for a nice layup off glass and then finish at the line. To me there really isn't much of a comparison between the two offensively. Olynyk is on another level. Zeller has more bounce but he lacks Olynyks IQ and skillset.
As far as defense goes, you can't depend on either Olynyk or Zeller to be a rim protector, but the league is trending towards small ball. The Heat don't have a rim protector at any kind and rely on great rotations and cross matches. The Clippers have Deandre but they don't have him on the floor at the end of games, they pull in the more versatile Odom and go small. The Warriors finished games small, so did the Nuggets.
I just don't really care for projects at this stage. I want guys who are cerebral, who understand the game of basketball. Olynyk has that more than anyone in the draft. If we were to pass on him and he put in work for another team, you won't have any excuses. All the tools were there -- size, length, ridiculous advanced stats, tournament success.
