Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Rafael122]

If Bennett were coming off a rookie year, I wouldn't worry. But, he's gonna miss summer league, combine, individual workouts and might make it in time for training camp, but that's his agent speaking and agents always like to spin it. He's already behind the 8 ball. Ford says he's still a lottery pick, and he is, I agree with that, but he's already dug a hole for himself and he's not even in the league yet. Then once he's at full health, he's going to have to battle guys who are already ahead of the curve. It's just a lot for a rookie to overcome all of that his first year.

You can make the argument with Len as well, foot injuries are notoriously slow to heal, you could make the argument he's probably lost half the year based off that.

[Nivek]

Edit: We operate under the assumption -- perhaps correctly -- that excellent team defense starts and is heavily weighted by centers and bigs. I'm curious as to how Chicago maintained a top-6 ranking in defensive efficiency, given that Noah missed 17 games and their second and third bigs were Boozer (who has a bad defensive reputation) and Taj Gibson (his rep is better, but he's 6'9'). Is there a way to see CHI's defensive ranking in games without Noah or when he was off the floor? Basically, I want to understand how much our defensive potential is blunted by the prospect of having Olynyk on the floor. Because I think he can help us offensively.

I'm sure there was a certain fluke factor, but Gibson was actually statistically one of the best defenders in the NBA this last year:

(Avery) Bradley finished this, his third season, allowing 331 points on 475 plays. Of players with at least 450 defensive plays under their belt this season, Bradley’s average (0.679) is far and away the best. The next closest is Chicago’s Taj Gibson (0.744).

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball ... story.html

Consider that Gibson is guarding a higher percentage of plays closer to the hoop than Avery Bradley there too.

Bigger picture though, it's not much of a leap to say that bigs establish your defense. I believe it's been verified that at least centers (if not also power forwards) are involved in somewhere around 50% of defensive plays on average.

We saw the effects of what physical, smart bigs can do last year, going from bottom five to top five by flipping Dray and Javale for Emeka and Nene (not in one calendar year, but still).

Much of it was just getting people to take shots in low percentage locations: there were 23.8 opponent shot attempts per game at the rim (3rd least), 8 attempts from 3-9 feet (3rd least and at a poor percentage), 6.4 attempts from 10-15 feet (13th most and at the 3rd worst percentage), 21.6 deeptu's (4th most and at the leagues worst percentage!). The three pointers were about average all around. It certainly can be said that the perimeter defense deserves credit (the low percentage on the long-J's), but we don't get there without being physical and well positioned inside. Pretty tough in the handcheck era for perimeter defenders to do much more than funnel elite penetrators to suboptimal or predetermined spots.

On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd be at about an 9 on how important defense is in your bigs.

Bradley is a fascinating player to me. He's reputed to be a great defender. When I watch him, I'm impressed with his defense. The individual stats support the notion that he's a terrific defender. But, in 2 of his 3 seasons, his TEAM hasn't been significantly better defensively when he's been on the floor. The Celtics have been excellent defensively both with and without him during his career.

[stevemcqueen1]

Anthony Bennett out 4 months with rotator cuff surgery.

McCollum and Olynyk are looking better and better every day.

I don't worry too much about injuries as long as they're not to the knee, foot or lower back. Everything else heals pretty well given time and treatment. If anything, this Bennett injury might be good news because it could push him back to us at #8 rather than in the #3-6 area where he seemed to be settling.

I still say that Bennett is the best fit on our roster assuming we've first determined that he's actually a good player. Bennett is the only guy in the top 10 that could be characterized as a stretch four. He fills a short term need (stretch four) and a long term need (young PF or C for the future) at the same time.

Insert the appropriate caveats here about not reaching for fit. Obviously, if we like another player much more than Bennett, then take the other player. But if there are several players on the board at #8 that we assess to be relatively equal in talent, and one of them is Bennett, take Bennett.

If we take Bennett, we should probably look to trade Booker for a combo guard.

Bennett is one of my favorite players in the class, but I worry about how his personality would work with Wittman's.

I also want us to keep Booker. He's one of our few reserves with the promise of being a good player for a playoff team. I want him as our Taj Gibson.

[nate33]

I also want us to keep Booker. He's one of our few reserves with the promise of being a good player for a playoff team. I want him as our Taj Gibson.

I love Booker, but he is extremely injury prone and is in the final year of his contract. I don't see us resigning him if we already have Bennett, Nene and Okafor (or another big money free agent to replace Okafor) on the roster. We'd probably be better off trying to trade him for a combo guard of equivalent value. Of course, I say this without knowing what combo guards are available. If we can't get anything better than a lousy player like Crawford, then I'd keep Booker and try and figure things out next Summer.

[stevemcqueen1]

Watching this postseason has made me want our own Joakim Noah or Marc Gasol. It would be huge for us to win the lottery and get Noel.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also want us to keep Booker. He's one of our few reserves with the promise of being a good player for a playoff team. I want him as our Taj Gibson.

I love Booker, but he is extremely injury prone and is in the final year of his contract. I don't see us resigning him if we already have Bennett, Nene and Okafor (or another big money free agent to replace Okafor) on the roster. We'd probably be better off trying to trade him for a combo guard of equivalent value. Of course, I say this without knowing what combo guards are available. If we can't get anything better than a lousy player like Crawford, then I'd keep Booker and try and figure things out next Summer.

I agree that Booker's injury problems are a major concern. But Chicago does have a lot of injury prone bigs themselves and they are still so valuable. You just kind of have to live with the missed time and build good depth to cope in order to enjoy that value.

I don't think Chicago would trade Taj Gibson for small, and if Booker can be that guy, I don't think we should either. Especially with Bennett as the reason, when he is so young and immature. I think guys like Booker have value that wouldn't show up on the trade market. Trading Booker damages the character of the team IMO, makes us a lot less tough, diminishes our swagger. I want to build like Chicago and have this tough, bullying team full of heart around John. I would rather deal Seraphin, Ves, and Singleton than Booker at this point.

If the issue is finding a good combo guard, I think it'd be better to hold onto our chips for next offseason in FA like you say because those guys do show up on the UFA market. Jarrett Jack for example. We'd just need to clear the space. Right now we've got an issue of Ariza and Okafor making almost double what they probably should. Once that gets sorted out next offseason, then we can just make low key signings for good contracts without having to trade off young players, and then only have Nene's bad contract to worry about.

I'm also getting to the point where I would rather get Paul Millsap than Anthony Bennett.

Or my best case scenario would be dealing for DeMarcus Cousins, probably around the 8th pick and some other stuff. Then I would try and trade back into the late lottery and pick McCollum for that 3rd guard role.

[stevemcqueen1]

If we got the second or third pick, my first two choices would be to move up to #1 for Noah or try and deal it for Cousins. Rather do that than move down or have to pick McLemore/Porter or whoever else would be third.

[nate33]

I also want us to keep Booker. He's one of our few reserves with the promise of being a good player for a playoff team. I want him as our Taj Gibson.

I love Booker, but he is extremely injury prone and is in the final year of his contract. I don't see us resigning him if we already have Bennett, Nene and Okafor (or another big money free agent to replace Okafor) on the roster. We'd probably be better off trying to trade him for a combo guard of equivalent value. Of course, I say this without knowing what combo guards are available. If we can't get anything better than a lousy player like Crawford, then I'd keep Booker and try and figure things out next Summer.

I agree that Booker's injury problems are a major concern. But Chicago does have a lot of injury prone bigs themselves and they are still so valuable. You just kind of have to live with the missed time and build good depth to cope in order to enjoy that value.

I don't think Chicago would trade Taj Gibson for small, and if Booker can be that guy, I don't think we should either. Especially with Bennett as the reason, when he is so young and immature. I think guys like Booker have value that wouldn't show up on the trade market. Trading Booker damages the character of the team IMO, makes us a lot less tough, diminishes our swagger. I want to build like Chicago and have this tough, bullying team full of heart around John. I would rather deal Seraphin, Ves, and Singleton than Booker at this point.

If the issue is finding a good combo guard, I think it'd be better to hold onto our chips for next offseason in FA like you say because those guys do show up on the UFA market. Jarrett Jack for example. We'd just need to clear the space. Right now we've got an issue of Ariza and Okafor making almost double what they probably should. Once that gets sorted out next offseason, then we can just make low key signings for good contracts without having to trade off young players, and then only have Nene's bad contract to worry about.

I'm also getting to the point where I would rather get Paul Millsap than Anthony Bennett.

Or my best case scenario would be dealing for DeMarcus Cousins, probably around the 8th pick and some other stuff. Then I would try and trade back into the late lottery and pick McCollum for that 3rd guard role.

You make a lot of compelling points, McQueen. I do love Booker's mentality. Dude is a tough mofo that you don't mess with. Perhaps the negatives of taking him out of the locker room outweigh the positives of filling the greater need at combo guard.

[nate33]

If we got the second or third pick, my first two choices would be to move up to #1 for Noah or try and deal it for Cousins. Rather do that than move down or have to pick McLemore/Porter or whoever else would be third.

Might not even need to move up for Noel (I'm assuming you meant Noel and not Noah). With his injury issues, and the fact that some of the potential high lotto teams already have a young big in place, there's a chance that he won't go #1. Would New Orleans take Noel #1 with Davis already in place? Would Orlando with Vucevic? Would Sacramento? Would Detroit? Even if those teams do go ahead and take Noel, it probably wouldn't take all that much to pry him away and for them to trade down to #2 or #3 where McLemore awaits.

[nate33]

Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

[Ruzious]

Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

Seth Curry. He's not a PG, but ya don't need him to be.

San Antonio effectively sent Denmon to France for a year. With their depth, that was the smartest thing to do.

[hands11]

With the depth of big men and 3 picks in this draft, I've resigned myself to the fact that McCollum wouldn't be the worst pick ever at 8. Coming away with McCollum, Muscala, and Murphy would be a solid B for the Wizards.

What's a bit depressing is that the Cavs are in position to potentially draft Noel, Bullock, Green - my dream trio in this draft.

No way. That would be a solid A for a draft.

Also keep this in mind. While others are coming up injured. CJM is returning from an injury. People haven't seen him play in a while. Wait till workouts when they do.

I expect CJM is going to go higher than many here think. He could easily pass Burke. I could see him passing VO as well. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he goes top 3 or top 5

CJM is the closest thing to matching S Curry skills in the draft. Not as a PG passer though. He is a SG who will learn to play more PG. But a better rebounder. Looks like a Beal with better handles. He has a Tony Parker nasty crossover.

I don't know how to do a screen grab of this but I would like to save this DraftX listing.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/

CJM and Muscala

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

Sorry nate, not seeing that type of player in this draft, at least not of any worthy caliber. Besides, isn't Price supposed to fill that kind of role for us? About the only possibility I see could be Elijah Johnson, but that's stretching it.

This really is a very strange draft.

Probably better off to look in free agency, maybe a vet min type player or Dleague? I agree those types do sometimes get overlooked.

[stevemcqueen1]

If we got the second or third pick, my first two choices would be to move up to #1 for Noah or try and deal it for Cousins. Rather do that than move down or have to pick McLemore/Porter or whoever else would be third.

Might not even need to move up for Noel (I'm assuming you meant Noel and not Noah). With his injury issues, and the fact that some of the potential high lotto teams already have a young big in place, there's a chance that he won't go #1. Would New Orleans take Noel #1 with Davis already in place? Would Orlando with Vucevic? Would Sacramento? Would Detroit? Even if those teams do go ahead and take Noel, it probably wouldn't take all that much to pry him away and for them to trade down to #2 or #3 where McLemore awaits.

Oh whups, yeah I meant Noel. Freudian slip. I've made that mistake several times with Noel.

Yeah, a trade makes sense for the teams you mention. Probably work something out before hand to let them know we'd be interested in him if they wanted to move down. I think he'll probably go #1 just off of being the BPA and being a defensible #1/#1 pick but then get traded if one of those teams ends up picking first.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Can someone please tell me what makes KO attractive at 8 when we could just take Mike Muscala with our 2nd. I am dead serious. Besides a better 2%, what does Kelly O do better. Muscala is younger, longer, a better defender, a better rebounder, and seems to have the same type of offensive game. Even if you look at his DX video you'll see the only weakness he has his Competition (not his fault/cant help) and his strength. i submit the fact that he his only 21 and plays for Bucknell(not the strength and conditioning program as other big schools) shows me he will get bigger.

I think you take Bennett/Oladipo, Muscala, and Bullock and you light a (draft) victory cigar.

I would LOVE Muscala in the 2nd round, but I doubt he'll last that long. The most common comparison I hear on him is Kevin McHale. I really like him, I hope he is still there.

My plan B if he's gone is Erik Murphy, and that's a fairly big drop-off. I do also doubt Murphy would last to our later 2nd rounder, he'd be an option at our higher pick though if Muscala is gone, and does fill a need. I think he could actually become very effective on this team.

[mhd]

Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

Seth Curry. He's not a PG, but ya don't need him to be.

San Antonio effectively sent Denmon to France for a year. With their depth, that was the smartest thing to do.

Curry doesn't have the "D" in Nate's 3&D request (I don't think Gibson and Fisher (in his prime) do either). I thin Erick Green is pretty underrated. He'll turn 22 in a couple of years, is a combo guard, and 39% from 3 on a ton of attempts (is also a 82% FT) shooter. Curry is a better shooter, but Green is taller and can fill a combo guard role.

[fishercob]

Can someone please tell me what makes KO attractive at 8 when we could just take Mike Muscala with our 2nd. I am dead serious. Besides a better 2%, what does Kelly O do better. Muscala is younger, longer, a better defender, a better rebounder, and seems to have the same type of offensive game. Even if you look at his DX video you'll see the only weakness he has his Competition (not his fault/cant help) and his strength. i submit the fact that he his only 21 and plays for Bucknell(not the strength and conditioning program as other big schools) shows me he will get bigger.

I think you take Bennett/Oladipo, Muscala, and Bullock and you light a (draft) victory cigar.

I like Muscala and wouldn't mind seeing the Wizards pick him. What did Olynyk do better? 2pt%, 3pt%, ft%. Muscala has better rebounding and block numbers, but against MUCH weaker competition. Olynyk committed more turnovers than I'd like, but was still extremely efficient and high usage.

I wouldn't be upset to see the Wizards come out of this draft with both Olynyk and Muscala. If I thought they could be good defenders in the team's defensive scheme.

I go to my share of American University basketball games. While I didn't see Muscala, AU was pretty bad this year in the Patriot League. The fact that he played them this year and mustered 16 points on 18 shots is a red flag in and of itself to me. AU's best post player was a 6'6 kid who took the year off last year to play minor league baseball. Muscala also had his worst game of the season in the tourney against Butler -- 9 points on 4-17 shooting.

But he did show out big time against Missouri: 25 pts on 17 shots, 14 boards, 4 assists and 4 blocks.

BUt I think he's going to have a big adjustment against grown ass men and world class athletes in the NBA. I look at his legs and wonder if he'll ever be able to add the bulk to be able mix it up with the big boys. I hope he does, because he seems like a great kid with a lot of skill and desire.

[pancakes3]

Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

Sorry nate, not seeing that type of player in this draft, at least not of any worthy caliber. Besides, isn't Price supposed to fill that kind of role for us? About the only possibility I see could be Elijah Johnson, but that's stretching it.

This really is a very strange draft.

Probably better off to look in free agency, maybe a vet min type player or Dleague? I agree those types do sometimes get overlooked.

Shane Larkin (itty bitty guy out of Miami)? I think in the 2nd round you'll be looking at 3-or-D guys.

[Ruzious]

Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

Seth Curry. He's not a PG, but ya don't need him to be.

San Antonio effectively sent Denmon to France for a year. With their depth, that was the smartest thing to do.

Curry doesn't have the "D" in Nate's 3&D request (I don't think Gibson and Fisher (in his prime) do either). I thin Erick Green is pretty underrated. He'll turn 22 in a couple of years, is a combo guard, and 39% from 3 on a ton of attempts (is also a 82% FT) shooter. Curry is a better shooter, but Green is taller and can fill a combo guard role.

He'll turn 22 tomorrow - I think you meant days; not years. But yeah, Green would be a fine 2nd round pick - I think he'll go late 1st - he's roughly the same size as Curry - probably half an inch taller.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Kinda interesting using the espn machine...

Bennett still going high (3-6).

Shows Dieng moving up to 12, just behind Zeller (11), and ahead of Olynyk (14).

Most often getting Wizards taking Len. Next is Muhammad. They take Len if he's there, and Muhammad if Len is already gone. They take either of them over McCollum or Zeller every time. On the rare occasion Len and Muhammad are both gone, it seems to be Zeller. I never got McCollum.

Porter is very consistently in the 2-5 range to Cleveland. Carter-Williams either goes 6 to the Kings or he's out of the lottery.