stevemcqueen1 wrote:verbal8 wrote:I think Deng could be a young Okafor. Probably not as athletic, but with better size. If you look back at Okafor's draft he probably should have been picked about 8th in that draft. He wouldn't be a terrible option, but I think there may be better ones.
Okafor was a much more highly regarded prospect than Dieng. He was an elite prospect who many thought should have gone #1 at the time. He was a monster at UConn, a face of college basketball the season he led the team to a championship, the most dominant player in CBB that year. Dieng is not the scorer nor rebounder that Okafor was. Okafor was also pretty much fully developed physically when he came out, Dieng is much skinnier and lankier than Okafor was.
Dieng is an old prospect with minimal offensive skills. He dominated players much younger than him. He looks like a nice back up defense and rebounding big man, someone a team like the Pacers or Bulls would draft and work into their rotation off the bench. I think he'd be a huge reach at 8. You're looking for a starter at that point in the draft. You need to pick a guy with some upside.
It's funny, I feel like people are really talking themselves into a lot of things.
Dieng at #8? Honestly. Dieng would probably go late 1st to mid 2nd in an average draft, and was slotted around 18-30 the entire college season. Overage, limited, and not especially great at much of anything, he's a bench big if things go right. I'd be shocked if he ever started more than 40-50 games in his career, and would put the over/under at 20. He's a reserve to me.
Olynyk and Zeller repeatedly getting talked up: well, at least Zeller had that rep a year ago, then he confirmed fears rather than overcame them this past season. Olynyk? He has some tools for sure, but like Dieng, he's overage and did squat his first two years in college. Apparently based on the scouts take on Aldridge's PF report, he even pissed coaches off to the extent that they were perfectly fine with him transferring until he decided to red shirt instead. He did produce a great season this past year, but I have HUGE concerns about guys who don't do squat till their last year. The players with NBA futures in these drafts are habitually the guys that are leaving early, so much so, that guys that are looking dominant as seniors are doing so playing against scrub seniors and young kids, so what does their dominance actually mean?
On top of that, seems like everyone everywhere views both Zeller and Olynyk as a 4 rather than a 5. So as long as you understand that, I can see the interest.
I just am alarmed at the fact that people are really arguing for a lot of guys that appear to be nothing but bench players, or at best rotational guys. Maybe Zeller and Olynyk can develop into adequate starters, but to paraphrase one of the scouts in the Aldridge article, if you're relying on these guys, if they are starting regularly, or featured early, either they were way better than anyone expected, or your team is terrible.
To me, taking any of these three guys is admitting were pulling an '09 again, and essentially turning a lottery pick, into a player highly likely to be nothing more than a reserve or spot starter with a very low ceiling, at least this time we own more than a single season, but it does have the flavor of '09 again because it feels like we're aiming small. Four years ago there were some '09 trade backers, a lot of them, and they argued that the '09 draft was garbage, that we were playoff bound, and Miller and Foye could help us in an area of need a ton. There was no point in swinging for the fences in a draft bereft of talent, particularly at our slot.
Then Stephen Curry turned into an all star, Rubio did come over, and while a work in progress, he is an outstanding pass first point, DeRozan has developed into a very good player for the raptors, ditto Brandon Jennings (one of the guys I pumped at the time in addition to Rubio), ditto Holliday and Lawson, Gibson etc. If we'd had the vision, we could have landed a very good player or two, instead, we set our sights low, and satisfied ourselves with adequate (well, those of us that weren't screaming obscenities).
I don't know what will happen in this draft, but I do think we should aim a hellvalot higher than a guy who'd be a borderline 2nd rounder in a good draft (Dieng), a guy scouts say would be a late first rounder in a good draft (Olynyk), and a guy who has fallen rapidly in esteem and doesn't look able to handle NBA big men (Zeller).
I really think it's essential that we aim higher and either trade up (Noel, Porter, Bennett), take someone with much better upside (a Len, a Burke, an Oladipo), take a guy with a high end NBA skill (Muhammad), or trade down for someone undervalued with hidden talent, or raw with potential (CJM, Gobert, Adetokoubo, Adams, Mitchell, Withey), or trade out (vet help, or '14 picks (the latter of which is my preference).
The last thing I want is to settle for a bunt, and just play small ball. You don't win anything playing small ball anymore, and this team isn't built yet to win anything, in my view it's too late unless we get an elite free agent or implode next season, but regardless, I'd still be inclined to swing for the fences.
Id:
1. Try like hell to trade up, offering anything save our '14 #1, or any player other than Beal or Wall.
2. If forced to stay put my board would basically read nothing but upside players with strong potential:
1. Noel
2. McLemore
3. Bennett
4. Porter
5. Burke
6. Oladipo
7. Len
8. Muhammad or CJM
3. If I could trade down I'd target:
CJM, Gobert, Adams, Mitchell, Adetokoubo, Withey etc
4. If I could trade out for #14 ammo, I'd do it ahead of all of options #1-#3, unless Bennett, Porter or Noel inexplicably fell to #8.
I know people genuinely love Zeller and Olynyk and even in some cases Dieng, but I feel like we've all seen this before. We've seen below the rim bigs without the athleticism to be difference makers or even adequate starters in the NBA, and we've seen largely unskilled, high character, high motor bigs as well, and they don't become much other than reserves.
For me Zeller's ceiling playing out would land us a solid player that we'd start till we found better, if we landed Olynyk, we'd get something of similar value but a bit more refined offensively, and in terms of strength, and in Dieng's case we'd get another big that we can throw in for some defense or blocked shots occasionally, but we'd never start.
Not sure why any of these guys is anywhere near remotely as worthwhile as the typically consensus top 8 (McLemore, Noel, Porter, Bennett, Burke, Oladipo, Muhammad, Len). Hopefully if we do go in a direction in favor of Olynyk, or Zeller, the ceiling play works out. I know Zeller was a top 3-5 projected player a year ago for a reason, I know Olynyk had a monster final year (except on the boards, and on the defensive end to some extent), so its possible the boosters are right, I just tend to believe the negatives are actually more likely to become more pronounced, rather than less, w/time, and the NBA game pounding them into submission.
