Beverly vs. Lin

[moofs]

The playoffs opened up some questions that should have been on everyones' minds all season: who's better, and why wouldn't we trade Lin at this point?

Per 36, we get this:

Beverly
11.5/5.5/5.9 with 1.9 stl, 1.1 blk, and 2.2 TO on 42/37.5/83 shooting with incredible defense.

Lin
14.9/3.4/6.8 with 1.8 stl, 0.4 blk, and 3.2 TO on 44/34/78.5 shooting

In the minutes we have as a sample, Beverly looks to be a more efficient scorer, far better rebounder, better ball handler, and better defender. I saw comments noting that Lin is the better playmaker, but I really haven't seen this difference myself.

Why would Bev NOT get the starter spot? Quite a few of us have been saying that our two most obvious upgrade spots are PG and PF, and while Lin's contract is still reasonable, Bev's is super cheap, makes Lin available as trade bait, we're obviously not that attached to him and quite a few people were wanting him gone anyway (an overstatement, in my opinion), moving Lin would free up about 8 million in cap space.
Why wouldn't we trade him and make Bev the starter? While he was average for us, I still think Lin can be well above average in the right system, but the difficulties of deferring to Harden's overlapping, and obviously more effective strengths limit Lin quite a bit.
Seems like it'd be good for both parties to me.

My main worry would be that Beverly could keep up his style of play for 36 minutes and stay healthy. It's been done before (Darrell Armstrong, who was even older when he was going nuts all those years), but it's not a style that everyone can play.

Talk amongst yourselves.

[Zubby]

Lin: .86 PPP(points per possession)
25.9% PnR handler: .85 PPP
12.7% Iso: .68 PPP
24.1% Spot-up: .96 PPP
21.9% trans: .95 PPP


Bev .91 PPP
17.4% PnR handler: .84 PPP
18% Iso: .83 PPP
34.8% Spot-up: 1.16 PPP
12.5% trans: .88 PPP


Point guard's are the new Center's... they all getting over paid. When you can pull a guy from Europe in the middle of the season and he produces just as well if not better than highly paid starter, its getting to that point.
Calderon is like on 10 million a year. Conley finally living up to his contract.

edit was going to put this in the other thread in response to T4MVP. Harden iso is at .93PPP and his PnR is at 1.0 PPP both higher than Lin/Bev with the ball.


Back to moofs point... I agree. Also Lin is more a SG imo.

[Guy986]

Bev is a nice 3 and D PG. He's someone that would be valuable in any system.

Lin is an enigma. I cant quite figure out Lin. Sometimes he shows flashes of being a great playmaker but then there are times where he look like he doesn't belong.

I want to see him dedicate a summer tightening his handle, improve his decision making and develop a consistent spot 3 before we make a decision on him.

Plus I'm not sure Lin is worth a whole lot on the trade market right now.

[houstonredox93]

Bev should not be the starting Pg. He is a solid backup PG that can come in and bring energy, but his off-ball defense is atrocious. Honestly his on-ball defense is pretty overrated, Jackson was toasting him most times down court.

[BaYBaller]

Here's a recent interview by Morey where he says Lin contribed the 3rd most wins for the team (behind Harden and Asik), among other interesting stats on Lin. Kind of interesting since you'd imagine Parsons would be 3rd. It's also unclear what metric he is using when he makes that statement. Obviously Morey is pretty much required to only say good things but I doubt he is just making up stats.

http://houston.cbslocal.com/2013/05/08/ ... eremy-lin/

It's kind of funny how there is all this tension between Beverley and Lin amongst fans though. Regardless of who starts you still need a back-up PG. Any reasonable analysis which involves trading Lin must correspondingly analyze who we can get to replace him. Who is available that is cheaper, with higher production, and more potential than Lin?

And from my perspective I actually see Beverley and Lin as very good compliments to each other. Beverley is a better man defender (i.e. gets more steals from guarding his man), but I'd argue Lin is a better team defender (gets more steals digging into the post player, intercepting passes). Beverley is more prone to go after offensive rebounds, while Lin primarily helps on defensive rebounds.

I also found it interesting how when the season started and Lin was recovering from his knee injury and he didn't have his explosiveness yet to be an effective scorer, averaged over 4 rebounds a game, then it just dropped off as he started to score more. To me that is a tell of a smart player doing what he can to help his team, while at the same time endurance/stamina was/is a factor for him where increasing his load in one area has an effect on others.

I think both are shaky shooters. I'm not sold on Beveley being a much better shooter, when career-wise it has been a weakness for him. I think the one elite skill Lin has is his PnR ability, coming off the screen, reversing off the screen, and his decision making in PnR situations. I believe this is what keeps him the starting spot, but that's just my guess as I see Lin being very effective off the bench as well. I would quite surprised if there is not a sizable uptick in Lin's scoring next season, in the 15-16ppg range, as I would imagine the coaching staff is going to instill more offensive sets involving Lin in side PnRs.

[TMACFORMVP]

I think Lin is better. He puts more pressure on the defense...and pushes it better. He was 17/7 on nearly 56% TS post all-star break PER36. I love what Beverley brings, and see the argument since he's more sound w/ the ball, and puts more pressure defensively (though Lin is still a good defender). But is he more "three/d" than even Lin is? I mean for the same stretch that Beverley has been here (41 games + 6 playoff games), he shot .375 from three on the season and 33% in the post season. In the same second half of the season, Lin has been shooting roughly 38% from three as well.

@Zubby, the #'s I posted was from a Grantland article that was posted in February, so it's definitely outdated. Here it is anyway...but take it with a grain of salt.

Back to Harden: Houston is scoring 1.51 points per possession on trips in which he drives at any time in the shot clock. That is easily the highest mark among all players in the 15-team database with more than a token number of drives. It is a mammoth number; keep in mind, teams average just about one point per possession overall. Harden has drawn a foul on one-third of his drives, which is among the highest numbers in the data set, and sort of amazing when you think about it.

Jeremy Lin is averaging 8.1 drives per game, ninth among all players, and even though he’s having a disappointing season, the Rockets are scoring 1.32 points per possession when Lin drives — about what the Spurs have scored on Parker drive possessions.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -available

I'd expect Harden's # has gone down since that time...since February was his last amazing month.

I"m probably a bigger Lin fan than most though...but I still think Lin is right now a slightly better player with more potential. His playoffs were awful, because he was injured...while Beverley had a solid post-season (IMO, Lin would be criticized if he did 12 ppg, 5-6 rpg, and 2-3 apg on 52 TS% despite only 1 TOV). We did win 2 games without Lin, but I'd like to think that's because we found our three point shot again w/ Garcia in the starting lineup going small. Parsons also woke up later in the series shooting the ball, Delfino knocked some down, and Harden had that ridiculous 7/9 game from three too in G5. Granted Lin looked overwhelmed in G1, so did our whole team...and he looked better in the first half of G2 before he got injured.

[spolgar]

Lin is in a peculiar situation where he is being paid starter money, performs like an average starter, but is simultaneously over and under rated at the same time. It is interesting that he is peppered with expectations that are a bit unreasonable, and yet when he doesn't meet them he is immediately deemed a failure.

The issue here is that at the beginning of the season, Jeremy Lin is pretty much exhibts the same flaws as a Jason Richadson 6 years ago, except that since Richardson is a slashing shooting guard with no left playing off BDiddy and Jax, no body really called him on it. The difference here is that even during the season, Lin has addressed his flaws. In October/November, I remember Sampson refusing to play Lin to close games because of his inability to drive from the pick using his left hand. Lin can do that now. Lin didn't use to be able to pass to Asik in the paint, now Asik catches the ball comfortably. His stats have improved despite Harden getting the lion's share of total usage rate. As an investment of talent, Lin is obviously improving. Some folks issue is that he's not accruing value quick enough, but there is only one basketball between 3 pretty capable wing players. Somebody will have to tone down their game.

My issue with the Bev hype is that we haven't really seen Beverly progress from game to game. He's had half a season. We know he didn't shoot that well from outside, and that changed somewhat towards the season, but he hasn't really taken enough 3s to get a good sample. We know he's okay in the half court, as he's not setting up the offense. Instead, he crashed the boards instead, which is definitely different from what most backup point guards face. He's certainly playing a surprising brand of basketball that no one really can effectively scout against. He seems like the more able ball handler because he doesn't drive into traffic with the same abandon as Lin does, he saves that for loose balls. I'd say that Beverly looks to penetrate less, and because of that, he creates less issues against the defense.

I'm not sure letting Harden and to a lesser degree, Parsons, create off the dribble in a half court set to be enough. If Harden sits and we are facing the oppositions first string, our offense stagnates if Lin isn't on the court as well. That's why coaches have alternated those two on the court starting the middle of the season. It works, to a degree, and I'm not sure Beverly can effectively take Lin's spot for that alternating look to work.

[rockmanslim]

Here's a recent interview by Morey where he says Lin contribed the 3rd most wins for the team (behind Harden and Asik), among other interesting stats on Lin. Kind of interesting since you'd imagine Parsons would be 3rd. It's also unclear what metric he is using when he makes that statement. Obviously Morey is pretty much required to only say good things but I doubt he is just making up stats.

http://houston.cbslocal.com/2013/05/08/ ... eremy-lin/

Not sure what stats Morey's using, but per bbref, Lin had the 4th most winshares on the team, but the 11th most winshares/48

Going by wins produced, Lin was 4th on the team, but 10th in wins produced/48 (WP48).

More on WP48:

The average WP48 value is 0.100, since a team of 5 such players would produce .5 wins per 48 minutes, which would equate to winning 41 of 82 games. In most sites that use the WP48 metric, we divide players into these categories:

• < 0.0 WP48 A player who actually costs his teams wins (i.e. this player is actually worse than a player who contributes nothing)
  
• < 0.100 WP48 A below-average player
  
• > 0.100 WP48 An above-average player
  
• 0.175+ WP48 A "star" player. If WP48 were the metric used for choosing all-stars, most players with 0.175+ would make the cut (i.e. these players produce twice as many wins per minute as an average player)
  
• 0.225+ WP48 A "superstar" player. These would be All-NBA 1st-team and MVP candidates.

http://www.thenbageek.com/faq

Some WP48 for the 2012/13 Rockets (link):
Harden .217
Beverley .206 *
Asik .169
Parsons .157
Lin .091

* According to this, Beverley's .206 WP48 makes him a star lol. I'm guessing Bev's WP48 must be inflated due to small sample size.

But Lin's .091 WP48 does have a good sample size. WP48 below .100 is considered below average.





Personally, I don't think either one is a starter. They should be competing for the backup spot. Behind who, I don't know. Chris Paul?

If Bev gets more minutes I suspect his defense will drop off. He admitted in his exit interview that he needed to get his foot in the door, and defense was the way to do it, but that now that his foot is in the door, he wants to showcase what else he can bring to the table. So yeah, sounds to me like his defense will drop off, much like Parsons' did this year compared to last.

[Zubby]

Yea, rockmanslim I see that happening too. Bev really did remind me of rookie Parsons, they both have high anticipation/ability to read the game which allowed them to always be in the right spot it seems. The Bev we see next year will probably be more offensive minded, but neither Lin nor Bev are stars in the making.

Morey also said Lin was 5th best PnR player... of players with at least 9 per game.
It seems Morey really is gonna give Bynum a 1 year offer if he fails on Dwight/Paul. I'd rather he give a 1 year contract to Oden.

[moofs]

Yea, rockmanslim I see that happening too. Bev really did remind me of rookie Parsons, they both have high anticipation/ability to read the game which allowed them to always be in the right spot it seems. The Bev we see next year will probably be more offensive minded, but neither Lin nor Bev are stars in the making.

Morey also said Lin was 5th best PnR player... of players with at least 9 per game.
It seems Morey really is gonna give Bynum a 1 year offer if he fails on Dwight/Paul. I'd rather he give a 1 year contract to Oden.

How about a 1 year contract to both? We could have the first All Ceramic frontcourt in league history.

[Guy986]

Pau Gasol is a great cheap one year option for us.

Has range, has post game, great passer and a 7 footer. Expiring contract.

[TMACFORMVP]

Pau Gasol is a great cheap one year option for us.

Has range, has post game, great passer and a 7 footer. Expiring contract.

I agree with this. He'd be a very good fit with this team and direction to improve and still maintain flexibility. The question is...what would the Lakers want? I doubt they amnesty him since he's their only trade chip?

[spolgar]

Pau Gasol is a great cheap one year option for us.

Has range, has post game, great passer and a 7 footer. Expiring contract.

I agree with this. He'd be a very good fit with this team and direction to improve and still maintain flexibility. The question is...what would the Lakers want? I doubt they amnesty him since he's their only trade chip?

Motivation to do this trade would be for the Lakers be to get as close to getting out of the tax as possible.

If they manage to bring back Dwight, they are to reload rather than rebuild. Which means they'll want an established second string star for Gasol with some pieces to make the salaries work. They'll probably ask for someone like Garcia/Delfino, Parsons and one of our younger pf prospects (I'm thinking TRob).

If they lose Dwight... I don't even know. Kobe will just come back from rehab 1/2 way through the season and he'll probably back court with Nash as Nash willl be difficult to move. I don't know what's going to happen with the rest of the roster though. They might make the playoffs, but there is no way the Lakers wouldn't flip Gasol now for picks/youth or risk letting him walk away for nothing.

[houstonredox93]

I don't think Morey would do more than T-Rob/D-Mo/Jones (one of these,maybe 2, but not all) + filler for Pau. No way would he ship out Parsons for a 1 year rental of Pau.

[PhilDMonkey]

I LOVE beverly's energy, but clearly Lin has a much higher ceiling. Beverly never showed anything exiting in playmaking, which is probably the most important part for a point guard.

Lin needs to improve his bad turnovers and poor jump shots this summer, but he still has a bright future.

[Bruteque]

It's not even remotely close, as Lin wins by a landslide.

Lin moves the whole defense when he attacks the basket; Beverley barely moves two players, and even then it's only because the second defender's assigned player sets a pick. That much is blatantly obvious. If Beverley beats his man in iso, he will usually get right to the basket: Very very few off-ball defender is even paying him the slightest attention. When Lin has the ball and make a move, even the player guarding the corner 3 on the opposite side of the ball reacts.

It's the same reason OKC is much worse with Jackson instead of Westbrook despite Jackson's much better scoring efficiency (the efficiency gap there is much wider than Lin-Beverley): Defenses as a whole don't react to Jackson's attacks, therefore easy baskets are few and far in between for the team and the team becomes overly dependent on outside shots falling. That is fine in short spurs, but it's not something you can settle for in long stretches if you are trying to be elite.

[LarsV8]

Neither are long term solutions but Beverley is going to be more effective because he is a better fit.

We need to look to move Lin soon, because if he can't drastically improve he will become a fan scapegoat and his value will tank.

A SnT of Milsap to Houston (8,9,10,11) for Lin/Robinson would be ideal for both teams.

[BaYBaller]

Since when does being fan scapegoat have anything to do with their trade value?

And to give up on Robinson so early as well... man you are crazy. Robinson is going to be our version of Kenneth Faried. The dude is going to be an elite rebounder in this league, there is no doubt in my mind.

You don't give up on 2 prospects with high potential for a SnT for Milsap of all people. Goodness.

[LarsV8]

Since always. If fans turn on a player it makes it awkward to even put them on the court. It gets into the players head and they start playing to not mess up, and it kills their confidence. It's a slippery slope. Lin is in a bad spot because he is so overhyped, he will never live up to the expectations of Linsanity.

It's not giving up on Robinson, its clearing the necessary cap room for a super max offer for Dwight, while significantly upgrading the PF position. We have 4, count them, 4 PF prospects on this team and Robinson is last in line. One of two is going to be shuffled in trades. That is a foregone conclusion.

[madbucky]

who's better? why wouldn't we trade Lin at this point?

If you looked at them outside of the Rockets context (pretend Beverley and Lin were in the draft), Lin would be rated much higher. However, in the context of the Rockets roster, things are much different.

The way I see it, in today's NBA, you can only have one dominant guard per team. If your PG is dominant like Westbrook or Rose, then the SG should be able to be less dominant and play off the ball. This usually isn't a problem since SG are supposed to play off the ball. If your SG is dominant like Kobe, Jordan, or Harden, then the PG needs to be able to be less dominant and be a role player. Guys like Ron Harper, BJ Armstrong, Jordan Farmar, Derek Fisher. Steve Nash instantly went from 10.7 apg down to 6.7 apg. You simply can't have two star guards, that's why Ellis and Curry didn't work out in GSW, and now that Ellis is gone, Curry exploded.

Beverley fits into the role player PG category well. He's perfectly happy standing at the 3pt line waiting for a kickout. Lin is a terrible fit for that role. So given the Houston's backcourt situation, they're about the same. Actually Beverley is probably better.

If Morey acquired Harden first, there would be no way that he would've acquired Lin. So it makes a lot of sense to trade Lin for a valuable asset in the offseason. Otherwise, it's a waste of skills and money.