Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[montestewart]

There are a lot of "ordinary athletes" who have had outstanding NBA careers, Tim Duncan, Melo, Larry Bird and Paul Pierce immediately come to mind.

Pierce and Bird yeah, but Melo and Duncan aren't ordinary athletes. Like Pierce and Bird, they're high skill players and that skill level defines their game. But Melo is a pretty explosive bear that can get by almost anyone who guards him and Duncan has always been a very mobile and fluid 7 footer with excellent power and length.

I don't agree with people who say Shabazz is an ordinary athlete either. He's explosive and powerful and will be a king sized SG in the NBA. He's got great length. I think he's more explosive than James Harden and he's a lot more explosive than Harrison Barnes was. The worst you can say about him is that he's physically identical to Harden in all but the beard. Athleticism shouldn't be an issue for him in the NBA at all.

For every ordinary athlete that became a great NBA player, there are many supposedly fabulous athletes that did not. Seems I've also heard the term "explosive" applied to players that never made it in the NBA. Having another scorer is pretty important to the offense-challenged Wizards, and if he can bring 16-18 efficient ppg, that might be the best move (depending on where they pick and what else is available), but if he's a king-sized shooting guard, he's an undersized SF. Will his apparent explosiveness work as an NBA SF? If he needs to be emplyed as a SG, what happens to Beal? Harden is a multi-skilled player who I believe played his rookie year in the NBA at the same age as Muhammed played his rookie year in college. Not sure what to make of that comparison.

[stevemcqueen1]

Looked to me like Bazz only played hard when he had the ball in his hands. And his lack of rebounding is definitely an issue on a team that only has one big who is a good rebounder (and he is on an expiring deal).

I would agree that he looks like an ordinary athlete.

The remarks both Aldridge and Ford have alluded to with regards to Muhammad have continually harped on the idea that he always plays really hard, hell its an asset. I don't understand how something that all scouts refer to as one of his chief assets, is being looked at as a liability. Effort, play hard, and work hard are definitely not concerns with him. The chief concerns are working the rest of the stat line/being a more complete player, refining his game so he's more than a physical player, getting in better shape, and his size which isn't ideal. His work rate, and his effort are two of his greatest assets alongside his simple ability to score. Plenty to take issue with, no doubt, but not his effort, dedication, or level of intensity while playing.

From watching him myself, his motor definitely stood out. He plays with passion and he works to get open for the entire 35 seconds.

Bazz could have probably averaged 25 a game if Howland took him off the chain and his teammates fed him continuously. The way he'd work for position and run defenders off him and constantly call for the ball, he'd be getting to scoring spots every single possession. I got the sense he annoyed his teammates, constantly demanding the ball. Far too often they'd simply ignore him and just work the ball around outside, using up the whole clock before someone had to hoist a 3 or a mid range jumper. PG play was an issue, Larry Drew sucks, and having Kyle Anderson run point so much wasn't good. Howland also wasn't very good.

There's pretty much no doubt in my mind that if Bazz goes to a bad team in the NBA that needs a featured perimeter scorer to shoulder the load, he'll put up 20+ PPG, if not mid 20s. Especially if its a run n gun team offense like the Rockets run. He's probably the top scorer in this class, best inside-outside scorer, ahead of Bennett and McCollum.

I also think he's a better athlete than he's getting credit for. He's got outstanding length and the way he runs the floor so hard and dunks on people is impressive. He's got an NBA ready body with NBA strength and was able to scrap with and post up college bigs shows off how strong he is, he's excellent finishing through contact. He can go up amongst the trees on the offensive glass, come down with the ball, power dribble, then go up again and finish.

All in all, he's a hyper aggressive skilled scorer. He's a classic wing finisher.

All of my concerns really stem from the intangibles and from his lack of versatility. Guys like Kobe and Carmelo can get away with being selfish and not really directly making their teammates better because they make their bad shots and can dominate games with just their scoring. But most players like that don't end up like Kobe or Melo. Bazz is definitely not the bad shot taker that those two are because he does pass out of doubles and bad situations. But he doesn't set teammates up.

And there are some character issues with him and definitely questions about his family background. Like it or not, teams take a player's family into consideration when they draft them. Lying about his age is serious to me. Beyond that, I wonder what motivates him? Is he overly concerned with crafting and promoting his brand? I'd rather the kid be like John or Beal--a basketball player who loves only the game and doesn't have an ego that can bog down the locker room. Someone who will be like Durant or Rose and keep it low key off court, stay home and off his feet and stay totally focused on basketball during the season. I don't know Bazz and only have second hand information about his character, but he seems to fit that type of guy with an ego who is as concerned with his brand as he is about playing his role on a team. I could be completely wrong, we'll see how his career unfolds. It's just the feeling I get.

[popper]

BulletsForever did a pretty detailed breakdown on the much-discussed Alex Len.

At 7'1", he boasts as much potential as any player in the 2013 NBA Draft, and is generally considered its second-best center prospect behind Noel. At his ceiling, Len projects as a center that can shut down an opponent's best post scorer, protect the rim, and score at will, either in the post, where his quickness and length will make him a matchup nightmare, or in the pick-and-roll, whether it's popping out for a jump shot or rolling to the rim for alley oops. Len also runs the floor very well for a player his size, which combined with his potential as a pick-and-roll partner makes him a perfect fit schematically alongside Wall.

Len often appears calm and collected on the court, perhaps to a fault, as his toughness and passion for the game are often among the main questions raised about him. His passivity was well-publicized during his freshman season, when he struggled to adapt to a new way of life in the United States. By his sophomore season, Len had mastered English and appeared far more comfortable with his teammates and reporters in the locker room. His on-court demeanor didn't change much, but he frequently flashed some fire, pumping his fists and shouting into the crowd on occasions when he or one of his teammates made a big play. As for his toughness, Len doesn't really seek out contact on either end of the floor, but he doesn't back down from it either. He also rarely looks to the officials for help on the offensive end, where's he undoubtedly a finesse player, more interested in using his quickness and length to score rather than banging down low.

Forget that second paragraph. People talk so boldly about Len, but I'd be very wary when the boldness is based entirely on projection - and that's after 2 seasons of college ball. I'd be a bit... shall we say... Skitish... about buying into it. The fact is, mediocre college players often had their way with him... in the post. How can one seriously project him to "shut down" the best NBA post players when he wasn't even that effective a post defender against ordinary college players.

He was nowhere near a shutdown defender at Maryland. He really didn't show a jump shot at Maryland. He really didn't show any quickness with the ball in his hands at Maryland. Speaking of hands (not Hands), he didn't show good hands at Maryland. He really was a poor transition player at Maryland who labored getting up and down the floor. Yet people are talking like it's a given that he will have these skills in the NBA - and not just have them - have them at an elite level.

I tend to agree although I've only seen limited action. I actually called him a goon here sometime ago after watching him play. He fumbled every pass thrown to him down low and he was slow and goonish in rotations. I'll defer to others though because my observations are too limited to be of much value. Maybe he had a bunch of stellar games that I did not see.

[stevemcqueen1]

There are a lot of "ordinary athletes" who have had outstanding NBA careers, Tim Duncan, Melo, Larry Bird and Paul Pierce immediately come to mind.

Pierce and Bird yeah, but Melo and Duncan aren't ordinary athletes. Like Pierce and Bird, they're high skill players and that skill level defines their game. But Melo is a pretty explosive bear that can get by almost anyone who guards him and Duncan has always been a very mobile and fluid 7 footer with excellent power and length.

I don't agree with people who say Shabazz is an ordinary athlete either. He's explosive and powerful and will be a king sized SG in the NBA. He's got great length. I think he's more explosive than James Harden and he's a lot more explosive than Harrison Barnes was. The worst you can say about him is that he's physically identical to Harden in all but the beard. Athleticism shouldn't be an issue for him in the NBA at all.

For every ordinary athlete that became a great NBA player, there are many supposedly fabulous athletes that did not. Seems I've also heard the term "explosive" applied to players that never made it in the NBA. Having another scorer is pretty important to the offense-challenged Wizards, and if he can bring 16-18 efficient ppg, that might be the best move (depending on where they pick and what else is available), but if he's a king-sized shooting guard, he's an undersized SF. Will his apparent explosiveness work as an NBA SF? If he needs to be emplyed as a SG, what happens to Beal? Harden is a multi-skilled player who I believe played his rookie year in the NBA at the same age as Muhammed played his rookie year in college. Not sure what to make of that comparison.

Well, there are a lot of guys of all body types and levels of athleticism that have failed in the NBA. But one thing that remains true, is that almost all of the star players in the league have something physically that sets them apart. Even Bird, who was an ordinary athlete, had his size. He really had the body and strength of a PF, even for today's NBA. Especially during an era when you had bigs running around in the 210s and 220s.

Bazz and Harden have almost identical physical profiles. Bazz is probably a tiny bit taller and heavier, but they're both 6'5-6'6 220+ pound lefty swing men with near 7 foot arm length. Bazz is probably a little more of a leaper and looks a little more coordinated and fluid on his feet. Harden is clearly more versatile though, a much better facilitator and there is no selfishness nor ego to his game. Harden was the same age as Bazz his rookie season, he came out of college as a sophomore.

Bazz isn't really undersized at SF because he's so long and heavy for his height. There are smaller and much weaker players than him running around the NBA at SF. 6'6 is a little on the shorter side since the average height is probably 6'7 or maybe even 6'8, but really 6'6 only seems small compared to guys like Durant and Paul George, who are 6'10 and the absolute biggest in the league. Bazz plays a lot bigger than his height because he's so powerful and aggressive.

I think Shabazz plays SF in lineups with Beal and Wall then you probably move him to SG in lineups where either Wall or Beal is out. Hopefully Beal develops his playmaking ability and ball handling so that he can run some point when Wall is out, he did it a little bit this season and didn't look terrible. But if Beal can SF in small lineups as he did this season, Bazz should be able do it. He's probably got nearly 20 pounds and several inches in standing reach on Beal.

From a skills and Xs and Os standpoint, I think Bazz could definitely work for us. I think his skill set is very translatable to the NBA and there is a role for players like him on most teams. What I worry about is him being an intangible fit. How does he effect the locker room chemistry? He needs to not just be able to play his own role, but also make his teammates better. Bring more to the table than he takes away. Be a positive and stabilizing element in the locker room. We finally got rid of a lot of our problems in the locker room, I don't want to bring in new ones unless the guy is a dominant player with sky high potential like DeMarcus Cousins.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also don't agree with the contention that Shabazz's high recruiting rankings are buoying his draft stock unnaturally high. I think the opposite is happening in this thread. I think people being disappointed that he wasn't as dominant as a #2 recruit should have been is causing them to ignore all of his special attributes, especially when coupled with the lie about his age coming out.

[Dark Faze]

Its not like people don't want a super highly touted HS recruit to come in and be the next James Harden. GM's actively pump players up in their minds on the regular about guys and would love nothing better than to fool themselves on Bazz. Problem was that he wasn't that good. He didn't score with efficiency, his defense was average, he can board a bit but other than that he sucks at everything else, down to probably pissing off a locker room by his NBA 2k13 My player like tendency to demand the ball on every single possession.

By every metric Caldwell-Pope is better in terms of what was accomplished on the court.

[Nivek]

Who's seen Tyrus McGee play? Without the physical stuff, he has a pretty good rating in YODA. Looks to be an outstanding shooter. His DX page says he's 6-2, which would suggest PG, but he has few assists, which suggests SG.

Does YODA take criminal records into consideration? I think McGee was busted for theft at some point. He also had the highest 3 pt percentage in the country.

Link.

A wallet was reported missing Tuesday evening and found on a couch in the Hawthorn Market & Cafe, said Aaron DeLashmutt, of the Iowa State University police. Police reviewed video surveillance and saw McGee going through the wallet and taking the money out, DeLashmutt said.

McGee admitted taking the cash and spending some of the money on groceries, DeLashmutt said. McGee returned the other $160 to police, DeLashmutt said.

So what you're saying then is that McGee might lead the league in steals.

Yes, YODA does include "intangibles" like this when they're known.

By the numbers, McGee appears to be an undersized SG who can shoot the ball extremely well. His shooting would suggest a guy at least worth a look in training camp.

[fishercob]

At 7'1", he boasts as much potential as any player in the 2013 NBA Draft, and is generally considered its second-best center prospect behind Noel. At his ceiling, Len projects as a center that can shut down an opponent's best post scorer, protect the rim, and score at will, either in the post, where his quickness and length will make him a matchup nightmare, or in the pick-and-roll, whether it's popping out for a jump shot or rolling to the rim for alley oops. Len also runs the floor very well for a player his size, which combined with his potential as a pick-and-roll partner makes him a perfect fit schematically alongside Wall.

The hyperbole is mindblowing here--there are currently about zero centers right now that can score at will in the paint. 0 chance that Len becomes the most dominant offensive center of the decade.

You'd think all that size and athleticism would have at least got his team to the tournament. His rebounding numbers are also kind of suspect.

This kid hasn't done anything on the floor to make him worth a lottery pick. Its all about his body.

Perhaps I should have quoted some of the more critical portions of the breakdown as well.

I think the reason they think he has the potential is that he did indeed show flashes of dominance, but was woefully inconsistent. When I watch these highlights, I see see a guy with the size, athleticism and skill to be a really good pro:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IknKniuYCic[/youtube]

But I understand that not only was this one game, it was the first game of the season -- and you don't tend to find highlight reels on youtube of guys fumbling passes, sleepwalking, etc.

I have no real sense for Len's defensive potential outside of his physical attributes. More than offense, defense is a team endeavor. It's about a coordinated effort to funnel the ball towards help, to get the offense to take bad and/or contested shots, and to secure the rebound. Defensive centers both act as traffic controllers and as last lines of defense. Being huge and quick is helpful, but being smart and fast-thinking is equally if not more important. Len has the physical attributes to be a dominant defensive center, even if he isn't a great shotblocker. The other stuff, I don't know.

[GhostsOfGil]

^ He reminds me a lot of Jonas Val from those clips.

[verbal8]

I don't agree with people who say Shabazz is an ordinary athlete either. He's explosive and powerful and will be a king sized SG in the NBA. He's got great length. I think he's more explosive than James Harden and he's a lot more explosive than Harrison Barnes was. The worst you can say about him is that he's physically identical to Harden in all but the beard. Athleticism shouldn't be an issue for him in the NBA at all.

It is not that Shabazz is a bad college player, it is his game not seeming to translate to the pros. He seems like a smaller Gerald Wallace with higher usage and worse defense, although he seems to have better shooting. The red flags for me are the low 2 pt% and the lack of steals.

[Deeptu McPullup]

For every ordinary athlete that became a great NBA player, there are many supposedly fabulous athletes that did not. Seems I've also heard the term "explosive" applied to players that never made it in the NBA. Having another scorer is pretty important to the offense-challenged Wizards, and if he can bring 16-18 efficient ppg, that might be the best move (depending on where they pick and what else is available), but if he's a king-sized shooting guard, he's an undersized SF. Will his apparent explosiveness work as an NBA SF? If he needs to be emplyed as a SG, what happens to Beal? Harden is a multi-skilled player who I believe played his rookie year in the NBA at the same age as Muhammed played his rookie year in college. Not sure what to make of that comparison.

Well, Shabbazz has the kind of game that’s really going to be much more functional with solid athleticism and strength as he’s going to take a veritable hootenanny of contested shots inside of ten feet against multiple defenders. With athleticism, he’s going through and over guys whereas without he’s a high usage guy running cutesy dink and doinks with 25% of his shots getting sent to the third row. Only very rare cats like Capi'Twan are able to score a high volume inside without a certain beast factor in their favor.

Obviously, the strength is there, but I didn’t see much lift and that probably was the main reason why he only shot 46% on his two point attempts. Aside from the eyeball test, his low steals, blocks and .981 PPP in transition don’t speak well of his thoroughbredidness, at least for last year (I understand that there’s questions of his being out of shape last year for reasons that weren’t really his fault).

Likeways and counterwise, I’m not on board with SteveMcQ on how Bazz can be a guard; he looks like a pure and prototypical off-ball small forward from what I’ve seen. I do fancy his tenacity and acumen as a cutter, but Zeller might well have better guard skills than Bazz. If Bazz is the off-guard, the point is going to be almost entirely on an island as the facilitator unless you have elite playmaking in the front court. He really should only be taking a couple dribbles while attacking and his “lets-get-into-the-offense-here-people” utility dribbles are going to be conservative, backing away sorts of affairs where he’s attempting to get the ball to an actual guard with, you know, actual guard skills.

As for character, I worry a lot less about his intangibles or potential chemistry issues based on him being almost entirely an off the ball player. As noted, he cuts cleanly and continually, but is about as dependent on guys getting him the ball in his spots as your typical bigman, so I don’t know how much mischief he could cause in the locker-room even if he wanted to. A bad relationship with Wall and Beal would be poison for Bazz’s production and he's got to realize that.

On balance, it’s not really clear that his intangibles are really a negative as he has good qualities there too, so it’s pretty much on the athleticism question for me.

[jivelikenice]

I'm not a fan of taking Len, but if we're at 8 and we keep the pick, it will be hard to pass on Len especially if Oladipo/Porter/and Bennett are off the board. That being said I think this year more than most teams will be willing to take an injured high upside prospect like Len because you're not limiting upside and you're still in position to tank for the '14 draft. I don't think he makes it to 8....I still say this is the draft to reach out to a team in the top 4 and see if we can move up for Porter. The cost is going to be much lower than normal. Maybe a protected '14 pick and a young front court piece gets it done.

[tontoz]

I also don't agree with the contention that Shabazz's high recruiting rankings are buoying his draft stock unnaturally high. I think the opposite is happening in this thread. I think people being disappointed that he wasn't as dominant as a #2 recruit should have been is causing them to ignore all of his special attributes, especially when coupled with the lie about his age coming out.

What special attributes does he have?

[stevemcqueen1]

Its not like people don't want a super highly touted HS recruit to come in and be the next James Harden. GM's actively pump players up in their minds on the regular about guys and would love nothing better than to fool themselves on Bazz. Problem was that he wasn't that good. He didn't score with efficiency, his defense was average, he can board a bit but other than that he sucks at everything else, down to probably pissing off a locker room by his NBA 2k13 My player like tendency to demand the ball on every single possession.

By every metric Caldwell-Pope is better in terms of what was accomplished on the court.

I don't buy this claim that Bazz wasn't good. I saw plenty of his games and always thought he was good. His numbers for the year are good too, 18 PPG on 44% FGs and 37% from three is good for a freshman. Especially one that scores in as many ways as he does. He shot as well as Beal did, with more volume, and more creativity. How was he inefficient? You and many others act like he shot below 40% or something.

I think you are reading too much into my comment that his teammates got annoyed by him calling for the ball. He did his job when they ran set plays. My comment was an indictment of how bad his team was at feeding him most of the time, how often they ignored him, how bad the PG play was, not a criticism of Shabazz.

Caldwell Pope is a solid prospect who had a good year, but he was a Sophomore with an extra year of CBB experience over Muhammad. Muhammad's freshman season was far better than Pope's freshman season, and Bazz had a lot of problems this year, including injuries, eligibility issues, and a dysfunctional program that saw his head coach getting fired at the end of the season.

Bazz is also a lot bigger than Pope and a lot more skilled IMO.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also don't agree with the contention that Shabazz's high recruiting rankings are buoying his draft stock unnaturally high. I think the opposite is happening in this thread. I think people being disappointed that he wasn't as dominant as a #2 recruit should have been is causing them to ignore all of his special attributes, especially when coupled with the lie about his age coming out.

What special attributes does he have?

Remarkable inside-outside scoring ability.

[tontoz]

Bennett is having rotator cuff surgery on his left shoulder. That should definitely cause him to fall.

[tontoz]

I also don't agree with the contention that Shabazz's high recruiting rankings are buoying his draft stock unnaturally high. I think the opposite is happening in this thread. I think people being disappointed that he wasn't as dominant as a #2 recruit should have been is causing them to ignore all of his special attributes, especially when coupled with the lie about his age coming out.

What special attributes does he have?

Remarkable inside-outside scoring ability.

You mentioned Harden earlier as a comparison. Harden shot 8% better from the field, 3% better from 3 as a freshman. I don't see anything remarkable about Shabazz's scoring. He is good at scoring, but hardly remarkable.

And he doesn't do anything else well.

[Dark Faze]

^ He reminds me a lot of Jonas Val from those clips.

I'll give you that, he looks like an exact copy of Jonas in those clips, which is a huge positive for Len in my book, I must admit.

I'm not the biggest fan of nbadraft.net, but I do tend to agree with their metered ratings.

http://nbadraft.net/players/alex-len

http://nbadraft.net/players/jonas-valanciunas

http://nbadraft.net/players/kelly-olynyk

Funny thing is Jonas, Len, and Kelly are all compared to Spencers Hawes as similarity types. Kelly getting 9's on jumpshot, nba ready, post skills, and size kind of makes you drool.

In Lens favor he is almost an exact copy of Jonas except Jonas is apparently a far better rebounder/intangibles but they say Len has him in strength, size, and being NBA ready ( the only rating I'm pretty neutral-baffled by).

These things do lend some credence to Len, though I still am on the side of Olynyk.

As for Harden/Shabazz, those comparisons don't exist. Harden was leagues better than Shabazz at basketball in college.

[nate33]

Shabazz is Jerry Stackhouse 2.0. He'll put up points, but not in a way that helps a team. He's a SF in a big shooting guard's body. He's a straight line driver with no advanced handles. He's a decent shooter, but not good enough for his perimeter shots to be a focal point of the offense.

Taking Martell Webster and/or Trevor Ariza off the floor in order to put Shabazz out there is only going to hurt the team.

[stevemcqueen1]

For every ordinary athlete that became a great NBA player, there are many supposedly fabulous athletes that did not. Seems I've also heard the term "explosive" applied to players that never made it in the NBA. Having another scorer is pretty important to the offense-challenged Wizards, and if he can bring 16-18 efficient ppg, that might be the best move (depending on where they pick and what else is available), but if he's a king-sized shooting guard, he's an undersized SF. Will his apparent explosiveness work as an NBA SF? If he needs to be emplyed as a SG, what happens to Beal? Harden is a multi-skilled player who I believe played his rookie year in the NBA at the same age as Muhammed played his rookie year in college. Not sure what to make of that comparison.

On balance, it’s not really clear that his intangibles are really a negative as he has good qualities there too, so it’s pretty much on the athleticism question for me.

Good post, and you could very well be right about the intangibles. None of us know what kind of person he is from where we sit. I just don't like his family background at all because of his dad, and I don't like there was some selfishness out there on the court. I was putting those things together to make my judgement.

I think he's a better athlete than he's given credit for. If those are your only questions about him, then you should like him. I've seen him throw down 360s in AS games and with how easily he gets into the paint and scores and how many people he's posterized, I don't know what more can be said. He's a load to deal with.

He was hurt and got too heavy then he got sick and lost too much weight too quickly. I think people are underestimating his athleticism because his body wasn't quite right this year. He's got

As for his guard skills, John Wall is already the sole playmaker in our backcourt pretty much. Neither Ariza, Beal, nor Webster are creative players and we're fine so long as John plays. And really, no player playing with John need have the onus of playmaking on him because John is completely ball dominant. John is a star PG, he should have the ball in his hands to start every half court possession.

Nene is the only other half court playmaker in our starting lineup. Arguably the only other good playmaker on the team.

Would it be nice if Bazz could run some point? Certainly. But does he need to in order to be a great pick? No. If you draft Bazz, just find a good back up PG and you can have a good construction. We need one anyway.