Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[DCZards]

Whoever they add will need to be able to contribute and fit in right away. I think that leads away from a player like Bennett who we aren't sure of his position and Noel who will take a few years to fill out. I even think that counts out Shabazz.

If they use the top pick, something like VO, CJM, Len, Dieng, Otto, Burke and maybe Kelly Olynyk, seems to be their best chance of not messing up. I feel confident those plays will do what we know they can do at the next level and do it year one. I also expect most if not all to keep good value in about that order.

I certainly hope the Zards don't go into the draft with a short-term approach that results in them drafting the lower-ceiling potential of a VO or Dieng over the higher-ceiling potential of a Bennett, Noel or even a Shabazz. That would be shortsighted.

[The Consiglieri]

Oladipo's a weird situation. He seems to have flown up the charts based on one season of offensive production (scarily reminds me of how Singleton finally put together a great offensive season w/his traditional great defense in '10-'11). Scouts seem to love his athleticism and defensive talent.

[hands11]

Next years draft has a lot more SF and PFs and right now we have plenty of them, even if we still have lots of questions about what we have.

Nope. Can't think like that. Ariza/Webster are serviceable at SF but hardly "set pieces". The PF situation is laughable. We have an aging and hobbled Nene masquerading as a PF and 3 stooges that basically lied on their resume about being able to handle PF on a professional level. Our roster is dreadfully thin at all 5 spots. No bench to speak of, zero frontcourt depth, and the illusion of youth artificially generated via players like Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin is a sham of the highest order.

In the great Forward draft of 2014 we HAVE to draft BPA.

I wasn't thinking like that. I was outlining two paths they could go. Two lines of thinking. You just clipped part of what I posted.

As for Ariza/Webster. I'm not sure anyone can truly grade that. Trevor A could be a solid starting level SF for the next 3-4 years. He showed signs of returning to his LA form last year but even Trevor A was injured to much. And Trevor A is one of those players that needs the right players and system around him to produce at his best. He is just average off the dribble. But with Wall being the Wall he was later in the year and Beal nailing 3 like he was later in the year ( plus working on his handles this offseason), Trevor A could fit in really well as the SF with those two. And Webster would be a fine compliment as the SF off the bench if they can get him for 3 years at 3.5M.

The key to that is Nene returning healthy because you need a scoring interior PF. If you have that, I have confidence that Okafor can do what is needed at center to round out that group. Key there is finding a back up for Okafor, a real PG to play behind Wall and a true shooter with handles to back up Beal. Booker is a solid bench PF for rebounding. Then you just need a S4. If you add those things, what you have in Singleton, Ves and Kevin S is pretty much gravy. They are extended bench players fighting for their NBA careers which is all any of them really are at this point.

Wall, back up PG
Beal, back up SG with handles and pure shooting, Temple
Trevor A, Webster
Nene, Booker, S4
Ofafor, back up center

Thats 12 slots.

You let C Martin and Price walk. Neither cost you anything and neither are signed. If you can't find a back up SG, you bring back Price to do that. He is at least ok in that role but I wouldn't sign him for more then 1 year.

Then you have Kevin S, Ves and Singleton left over. May as well package Kevin S and Singleton in a two for one if you can. Or just cut Singleton. Buy him out. If not, he is signed and playing in the D League for a future trade or to get cut the following year. If you keep him, he is Booker injury insurance.

I see four position they need to fill this off season.

At PG, it seems best that they sign a playoff experienced vet to a 1-2 year deal. Even old man Fisher is ok.
The S4 they can draft cheap in a Mike Muscala or Erik Murphy

The talented SG is what might be expensive to find. Well if you want them to have handles. If not you can just add a spot up shooter like a Reggie Bullock or Erick Green. But I think we need some more handles on this team. That means you need a CJM, Burke type

And then there is center. What we need don't come cheap if they are good. You want a solid defender that can also score that is going to be around a while, then you need Len or Dieng. If you want more of just a defender, you get Withey or you have to pick one up in FA or via trade.

So it looks like the top pick might work out best if it is that SG or that Center. BPA doesn't really make sense since they are all kind of BPA ish.

CJM, VO, Len or Dieng.

[hands11]

What this team needs is a new GM with a fresh set of eyes. What concerns me is Ernie still believing Vesely is a good talent that just needs more playing time.

Also believing this team is a good playoff team as is, only held back this year by injuries and some tough breaks.

I'm convinced Ernie has his sights set on Len, with Zeller as his plan B.

But they would have been a playoff team if not for those things. They could have done 38-44. I thought that was already established. If not for Wall injury, they would not have gone 4-23 or whatever it was. They would have also gelled as a team sooner. Wall would have not had all that time off and he would have found his grove sooner. Beal would have adjust faster because he would not have been put in the position he was put in. 19 rookie SG as the best scoring treat of the starters who needed to dribble to create his own shot.

Things would have been very different if not for the Wall injury.

Wall and Beal turned the corner though. That is what was most important about last year.

Now that they have, the team is at a different level. What they need is more depth.

[hands11]

Its certainly worth it to talk shop w/them, especially w/a sale coming, a new ownership group might consider the 6th and 8th pick overall and a piece very attractive. I tend to think we undersell how much sac may value him. Everyone knows hes a knucklehead w/issues, particularly on the defensive end, and w/effort, but he is valued because the potential ceiling is so high. I would def try to initiate discussions though, as he's fundamentally superior to all the prospects in the draft not named Noel.

Yeah, on further thought, it would probably take something more like the #8 with Seraphin and Vesely.

I think that's something that could work for both teams.

Or just take Len or Dieng and move on. Still consider Kevin S and Ves trades but not for Cousins because he is going to be really expensive really soon. Len or Dieng are going to be cheap for 4 years.

I wouldn't give them Kevin S and Ves and the 8th if it was Len/Deing. That's overpaying and then overpaying again. I would rather keep Len or Dieng. Both are going to be productive players on rookie contracts. You need that. Wall and Beal are going to be getting paid. Gotta think longer term.

[hands11]

Whoever they add will need to be able to contribute and fit in right away. I think that leads away from a player like Bennett who we aren't sure of his position and Noel who will take a few years to fill out. I even think that counts out Shabazz.

If they use the top pick, something like VO, CJM, Len, Dieng, Otto, Burke and maybe Kelly Olynyk, seems to be their best chance of not messing up. I feel confident those plays will do what we know they can do at the next level and do it year one. I also expect most if not all to keep good value in about that order.

I certainly hope the Zards don't go into the draft with a short-term approach that results in them drafting the lower-ceiling potential of a VO or Dieng over the higher-ceiling potential of a Bennett, Noel or even a Shabazz. That would be shortsighted.

I wouldn't frame it like you did with those players but if that is how you feel, I expect you to be disappointed this draft. At least I hope you are. But my final list was VO, CJM, Len, Dieng not VO/Dieng

And I think you are selling Dieng short. I think he is going to be very solid defender with some offense. But in order of upside, its probably Len, CJM, then Dieng and VO with the last two having almost zero bust factor to them. While with Bennett, there a good chance he is just an undersized scorer with bad defense who needs to learn to play a new position. Why choose that when there are better options.

If you want to take on some risk, I would do it with Len who can be a two way center. As for CJM, he fills the stat sheet so there is little chance he will bust and he gives you all all that offense and handles you need.

Just not seeing Bennett as the best pick for them because of other options. Shabazz doesn't even register as an option. He is a Nick Young type player who drives only one direction. You take a Shabazz at 15 or so. In this draft, no sooner then 12 or 13.

I would take a Kelly Olynyk, Gorgui Dieng, Steve Adams and probably Pope over a Shabazz.

[The Consiglieri]

Its certainly worth it to talk shop w/them, especially w/a sale coming, a new ownership group might consider the 6th and 8th pick overall and a piece very attractive. I tend to think we undersell how much sac may value him. Everyone knows hes a knucklehead w/issues, particularly on the defensive end, and w/effort, but he is valued because the potential ceiling is so high. I would def try to initiate discussions though, as he's fundamentally superior to all the prospects in the draft not named Noel.

Yeah, on further thought, it would probably take something more like the #8 with Seraphin and Vesely.

I think that's something that could work for both teams.

Or just take Len or Dieng and move on. Still consider Kevin S and Ves trades but not for Cousins because he is going to be really expensive really soon. Len or Dieng are going to be cheap for 4 years.

I wouldn't give them Kevin S and Ves and the 8th if it was Len/Deing. That's overpaying and then overpaying again. I would rather keep Len or Dieng. Both are going to be productive players on rookie contracts. You need that. Wall and Beal are going to be getting paid. Gotta think longer term.

That's a very good point. It's not such a great deal when you're essentially giving away assets to get a potential free agent at top dollar. At the end of the day, the team getting the primo asset at a cheap cost is the one w/the real advantage.

[hands11]

Like Beal is going to be for the next three years. In three years, 5.6M for Beal should almost be uncomfortable to watch but I'll take it.

He should hopefully be playing like a 8-10M player and only getting paid 4.3M next year.

Like Lawson making 2.5M this year.

We already have two players who are likely getting max but the bill on Beal won't come due for a while. Another nice piece like that would really help add flexibility.

Once Okafor is done with this contract next year, they should be able to resign him for something like an average of 7M maybe over 2-3 years. Draft Len/Dieng and have Okafor start next year. If Len, he finishes the season if Dieng he is here the entire season, then they start 2014 off the bench and plays year two that way fighting for the starting job but earning it. Then the following year they start with Okafor as the back up. Nothing wrong with that at all. Groom a center for two years while you make the playoffs and get experience and then hand over the starting job while clearing cap.

If they bring in a real vet back up PG, something more vet then Price, while keeping Trevor A, Nene, Okafor and Webster, that should be enough vets to support having younger growing players. Specially the right younger players. Specially when Wall and Beal turning the corner.

The Wizards clearly have questions that need answered, but it isn't hard to see how this could work out really well for them. I would never be in a hurry to ship off legit vets. Specially on this team who has lacked them for so long. Gotta let that culture take root. They have a solid group that seems to like a respect each other. Why mess with that ?

[kirubel94]

I know you guys aren't big fan of Euro's(me neither), but this particular Euro has caught my sight.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yARmJm8Kv3s[/youtube]

Might be able to play that stretch 4 when needed. He looks more of a 3 right now.

[verbal8]

I know you guys aren't big fan of Euro's(me neither), but this particular Euro has caught my sight.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yARmJm8Kv3s[/youtube]

Might be able to play that stretch 4 when needed. He looks more of a 3 right now.

He is probably my favorite Euro for the Wizards. If he is Kyle Korver with passable defense, a mid-first rounder is about right. Might be a good option in a trade back situation.

Dario Saric seems like Vesley part 2 to me.

[Liverbird]

We lack so much basketball skill along the front line. That's why Nene has been our best and most important player. He's the only big with a complete skillset that can run the high-post/pick and roll offense effectively. So smart - passes well. Everyone else has too limited a skillet and don't command the offensive respect Nene does.

IMO - our priority is in finding a Nene replacement. We have bits and pieces to plug in for Nene until we do, but that is the key. Wall and Nene together makes this team effective.

[kirubel94]

I know you guys aren't big fan of Euro's(me neither), but this particular Euro has caught my sight.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yARmJm8Kv3s[/youtube]

Might be able to play that stretch 4 when needed. He looks more of a 3 right now.

He is probably my favorite Euro for the Wizards. If he is Kyle Korver with passable defense, a mid-first rounder is about right. Might be a good option in a trade back situation.

Dario Saric seems like Vesley part 2 to me.

I would take Saric over Vesely any day, but i'd take Karasev over them both. His game is advanced compared to other Euros, he also seems to have a decent amount of athletic ability, to go along with a great B-Ball IQ and the ability to shoot beyond the arc.

[Ruzious]

I know you guys aren't big fan of Euro's(me neither), but this particular Euro has caught my sight.

Might be able to play that stretch 4 when needed. He looks more of a 3 right now.

He is probably my favorite Euro for the Wizards. If he is Kyle Korver with passable defense, a mid-first rounder is about right. Might be a good option in a trade back situation.

Dario Saric seems like Vesley part 2 to me.

Korver sounds like a good comp - keeping in mind that that's his upside. He seems even more 1 dimentional than Muhammad. He made only 41% of his 2's vs 49% of his 3's, and doesn't appear to do much more than shoot - so expecting him to do anything more than make 3's might be unrealistic.

[tontoz]

Oladipo's a weird situation. He seems to have flown up the charts based on one season of offensive production (scarily reminds me of how Singleton finally put together a great offensive season w/his traditional great defense in '10-'11). Scouts seem to love his athleticism and defensive talent.

Scoring 13 ppg while shooting only 43% is hardly great although it certainly was an improvement.

[Dark Faze]

We lack so much basketball skill along the front line. That's why Nene has been our best and most important player. He's the only big with a complete skillset that can run the high-post/pick and roll offense effectively. So smart - passes well. Everyone else has too limited a skillet and don't command the offensive respect Nene does.

IMO - our priority is in finding a Nene replacement. We have bits and pieces to plug in for Nene until we do, but that is the key. Wall and Nene together makes this team effective.

Then you probably want Olynyk. I think he can play some 4 with a guy like Okafor next to him, and also play some C with Nene in there as well. He's the most skilled big man in the draft, and I did some comparisons in the last thread that compared his numbers to Hawes--what he's better at, and what Hawes is better at, and the statistical production looked similar to Nenes output, although I don't anticipate the same defensive impact.

[Dark Faze]

"The most important thing is to get with an organization that wants to develop that potential, to have him achieve that potential," Lelchitski said. "It's not about which number he goes. Do I think he could have gone No. 1? Absolutely, if the right team wins the lottery and he's working out and looking great. Even in that situation, we would have been very careful to see which team is picking No. 1 and if that's someone we want to work out for. It's about fit. That's the most important thing. Somewhere we he can step in. Can he contribute next year? I think so."

Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terp ... z2TBDNgggw

Interesting quote from Lens agent which implies that he may be somewhat choosey about where he ends up. Just judging by what he says there he may have been looking to only workout and advertise himself to teams with a glaring need at C. Obviously its moot now since he can't workout, but it'll be interesting if he declines interviews for certain clubs moving forward.

[nate33]

"The most important thing is to get with an organization that wants to develop that potential, to have him achieve that potential," Lelchitski said. "It's not about which number he goes. Do I think he could have gone No. 1? Absolutely, if the right team wins the lottery and he's working out and looking great. Even in that situation, we would have been very careful to see which team is picking No. 1 and if that's someone we want to work out for. It's about fit. That's the most important thing. Somewhere we he can step in. Can he contribute next year? I think so."

Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terp ... z2TBDNgggw

Interesting quote from Lens agent which implies that he may be somewhat choosey about where he ends up. Just judging by what he says there he may have been looking to only workout and advertise himself to teams with a glaring need at C. Obviously its moot now since he can't workout, but it'll be interesting if he declines interviews for certain clubs moving forward.

I'm guessing he would refuse to work out for Detroit and Sacramento. Beyond that, it's pretty wide open. I can't see him rejecting a work out in Washington just because Okafor has one year left on his deal.

[Liverbird]

We lack so much basketball skill along the front line. That's why Nene has been our best and most important player. He's the only big with a complete skillset that can run the high-post/pick and roll offense effectively. So smart - passes well. Everyone else has too limited a skillet and don't command the offensive respect Nene does.

IMO - our priority is in finding a Nene replacement. We have bits and pieces to plug in for Nene until we do, but that is the key. Wall and Nene together makes this team effective.

Then you probably want Olynyk. I think he can play some 4 with a guy like Okafor next to him, and also play some C with Nene in there as well. He's the most skilled big man in the draft, and I did some comparisons in the last thread that compared his numbers to Hawes--what he's better at, and what Hawes is better at, and the statistical production looked similar to Nenes output, although I don't anticipate the same defensive impact.

Possibly but I'm not sold on Olynck... it's probably the hair.

[FAH1223]

Possibly but I'm not sold on Olynck... it's probably the hair.

[Dark Faze]

"The most important thing is to get with an organization that wants to develop that potential, to have him achieve that potential," Lelchitski said. "It's not about which number he goes. Do I think he could have gone No. 1? Absolutely, if the right team wins the lottery and he's working out and looking great. Even in that situation, we would have been very careful to see which team is picking No. 1 and if that's someone we want to work out for. It's about fit. That's the most important thing. Somewhere we he can step in. Can he contribute next year? I think so."

Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terp ... z2TBDNgggw

Interesting quote from Lens agent which implies that he may be somewhat choosey about where he ends up. Just judging by what he says there he may have been looking to only workout and advertise himself to teams with a glaring need at C. Obviously its moot now since he can't workout, but it'll be interesting if he declines interviews for certain clubs moving forward.

I'm guessing he would refuse to work out for Detroit and Sacramento. Beyond that, it's pretty wide open. I can't see him rejecting a work out in Washington just because Okafor has one year left on his deal.

I don't think so either, though you could desribe the teams stance on young guys as being somewhat abrassive though. Nothing that we've said publicly so far would give Lens group any confidence.

Who knows though, could all change come combine week.