Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[Nivek]

As I look at the draft in YODA, I concur with the assessment that it's a weak draft. That said, there's likely to be a couple of really good players (like All-Star level), and then a handful of useful role players. The challenge, of course, is deciding which is which. Especially when no one is really standing out. So much of what's being evaluated this year -- perhaps even more than other years -- is work ethic. There are players with potential in this draft, but how hard/smart are they going to work?

I still need combine measures, but in my analysis the better prospects in the draft are Oladipo, Olynyk, Zeller, Noel, Burke, McLemore, Porter and Bennett. There are reasons to question each of these guys, though. If the draft was today, and one of these guys was available at 8, I'd take him. Still more analysis to do, of course.

Of guys who might be available in the 2nd round, YODA likes Tyrus McGee, Reggie Bullock, Muscala, Zeke Marshall, Nate Wolters.

Need to look at Glen Rice Jr.'s D-League stats when I get a chance. His college numbers are unimpressive.

[Nivek]

Let's dispense with the notion that Chris Singleton's college numbers were ever "great" or even much good. His junior numbers were better than his sophomore and freshman numbers, but were still unimpressive. His eOrtg in his "great" junior season was 101. His 2pt% WAS .466, which would be subpar for a PG. Oladipo this season had an eOrtg of 122 and shot .644 on 2pt attempts. Oladipo more efficient offensively in all three of his college seasons than Singleton in his best.

Comparing their junior years, the only thing Singleton did better was block shots. Rebounding was fairly close (9.4 per 40 minutes for Singleton vs. 8.9 per 40 for Oladipo).

Singleton was considered the best defender in that class and in the nation at the time. Ditto oladipo. Both made significant improvements on the offensive end to boost the hell out of their stock in their draft years. That's the analogy, not that their offensive numbers in and of themselves are relatively equal.

I see and understand your analogy. I sorta tripped over "great" when it came to Singleton's numbers -- which were improved, but still bad. But, I do see your point.

Singleton sorta represents a peril of drafting for defense, at least on the perimeter. So much of defense in the NBA is team concept, coaching and good bigs. You want guys who play with toughness and work hard on defense, but ultimately perimeter defense in the NBA is more about executing the scheme than individual effort/prowess. There are exceptions, of course, but a defensive specialist who was inefficient in college is going to self-check in the pros.

[Dark Faze]

I agree with those picks Nivek with some caveats--Burke remains good value for a team simply wants a pretty good point guard. I don't think all-star consistency is there.

With Bennett I just think that offensive minded but undersized powerforwards face a much harder transition than any other position in basketball. Again, I was absolutely mind blown by the fact that Derrick Williams has been as poor as he has been. High IQ player with MINDBLOWING advanced stats, great tournament production, looked good on the eye test, but he faced such a big leap in how he had to play basketball at the next level that he just couldn't get it going. I see the same with Bennett.

I don't really see those issues for Olynyk. He'll give up some boards and points on occasion due to not being defensively focused, but he's going to play basketball the same way as he did at Gonzaga--screening the ball then knocking down face up jumpshots or using his length and savy against other players.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

TIER ONE: Ha! Not a chance.

TIER TWO: The Best of a mediocre bunch.

1. CE Nerlens Noel
2. SF Otto Porter
3. SG Victor Oladipo
4. PG Trey Burke

TIER THREE: Skilled but flawed.
5. FC Kelly Olynyk
6. CE Alex Len
7. PF Anthony Bennett
8. PG C.J. McCollum
9. SG Ben McLemore
10. FC Cody Zeller

TIER FOUR: Shoot for the stars! Guys that will sneak up and suprise you.
11. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
12. SF Glen Rice Jr.
13. PF Dario Saric
14. SF Giannis Adetokunbo
15. PG Dennis Schroeder
16. SG Jamaal Franklin

TIER FIVE: Role player depot.
17. CE Gorgui Dieng
18. SF Shabazz Muhammad
19. CE Jeff Withey
20. SG Erick Green
21. SF Sergey Karasev
22. CE Mike Muscala
23. PG Pierre Jackson
24. PG Nate Wolters
25. PG Isiah Canaan

TIER SIX: Developmental types
26. CE Rudy Gobert
27. CE Steven Adams
28. CE Lucas Noquiera
29. CE Mouhammadou Jaiteh
30. SG Alex Abrines
31. PF Livio Jean-Charles

TIER SEVEN: Primed to disappoint.
32. PF Tony Mitchell
33. SG Archie Goodwin
34. PG Michael Carter-Williams
35. PG Shane Larkin
36. CE Mason Plumlee
37. SG Allen Crabbe
38. PG Lorenzo Brown
39. SG B.J. Young
40. PG Myck Kabongo
41. SG Reggie Bullock
42. SF C.J. Leslie

Disclaimer: Dat's work is always expansive, well-thought, and better top-to-bottom than what I do. I make comments on his work solely to state my differing opinions.

Tier One- I think Oladipo has the requisite athleticism and driven nature to enter this level. He is a finisher and an energy player who with skill can be an elite SG. Noel also has the tools.

Tier Two-I would put your entire tier three group and add three players: Caldwell-Pope, Franklin, and Wolters.

Jamaal Franklin is Tony Allen morphed with James Harden. I have a hard time seeing him not have success because he has a nose for the ball and he is very active at both ends.

Wolters scores and passes like a Dragic or Calderon.

KCP scores really well and meets the profile of an underratted talent.

Tier Three- I would put scorers like Green, Canaan; skilled big Muscala; athletic distributors Kabongo, Brown, Schroeder; and a few others Dieng, Adetokunbo, and Pierre Jackson here.

All of the tier three guys can play.

I also think Zeke Marshall, DJ Stephens, Juvonte Reddic and a few others belong on NBA rosters.

[hands11]

We lack so much basketball skill along the front line. That's why Nene has been our best and most important player. He's the only big with a complete skillset that can run the high-post/pick and roll offense effectively. So smart - passes well. Everyone else has too limited a skillet and don't command the offensive respect Nene does.

IMO - our priority is in finding a Nene replacement. We have bits and pieces to plug in for Nene until we do, but that is the key. Wall and Nene together makes this team effective.

Then you probably want Olynyk. I think he can play some 4 with a guy like Okafor next to him, and also play some C with Nene in there as well. He's the most skilled big man in the draft, and I did some comparisons in the last thread that compared his numbers to Hawes--what he's better at, and what Hawes is better at, and the statistical production looked similar to Nenes output, although I don't anticipate the same defensive impact.

Possibly but I'm not sold on Olynck... it's probably the hair.

The hair is definitely a limiting factor. And that Lurch sized head. That has to slow him down.

As for him playing some 4, I think he is primarily a 4. A S4 actually. With limited D. Maybe a small seed of Dirke in there. It took Dirke a while before he was effective in the post and learned to get more physical.

[J-Ves]

How I see it...

The Top Six. Consider it a successful draft If we end up with one of these guys.
Noel
Bennett- Our coveted stretch 4. Poor defense and a rotator cuff injury are minor concerns. He has a chance to be an elite scorer, and will be a great fit with Wall.
Porter- The safe bet. Its hard to imagine Porter not being at least a solid starter at the NBA level.
Len- Massive body with a good mid-range game. 2nd in potential to only Noel. Can affect the game in just about every facet in a positive way (offense, low-post defense, rebounding). Probably wont contribute until year 2.
Burke
McLemore- Hes a bad fit, but he clearly has more upside then the players below him.

Solid Consolation Prizes. All 3 have something to offer and should be able to contribute from day one.
McCollum
Oladipo- You can never have too much defense, and with his improved stroke from 3 he should be a great spark plug off the bench
Olynyik- I worry about his ability to defend either C(too weak) or PF(too slow), but hes the best offensive big in this draft, imo.

The Upside Wild Card
Gobert- Gifted shot blocker with a large frame and wingspan. Won't be a contributor for 2-3 years. Hes one of my favorite targets in a trade down scenario. With one pick we grab our center of the future (Gobert) and with another we draft someone more able to help immediately.

NO THANKS! I'd only consider these guys in a trade down scenario... maybe.
Zeller- His reported wingspan scares me. Also I'm not sold on his athleticism.
Muhammad

[hands11]

I agree with those picks Nivek with some caveats--Burke remains good value for a team simply wants a pretty good point guard. I don't think all-star consistency is there.

With Bennett I just think that offensive minded but undersized powerforwards face a much harder transition than any other position in basketball. Again, I was absolutely mind blown by the fact that Derrick Williams has been as poor as he has been. High IQ player with MINDBLOWING advanced stats, great tournament production, looked good on the eye test, but he faced such a big leap in how he had to play basketball at the next level that he just couldn't get it going. I see the same with Bennett.

I don't really see those issues for Olynyk. He'll give up some boards and points on occasion due to not being defensively focused, but he's going to play basketball the same way as he did at Gonzaga--screening the ball then knocking down face up jumpshots or using his length and savy against other players.

I'm not. I said stay away from him.

[Dark Faze]

What are your thoughts on Bennett hands?

[hands11]

What are your thoughts on Bennett hands?

Talented, strong, skilled but not the basketball thinker type. He will rely on athleticism and physicality. Not brains. He is an offensive player period. That is his focus. He score and gets offensive rebounds. That is what interests him and where he is motivated. Give him the ball and he is going to shoot or drive. Its the last pass of that possession.

I remember the first time I watched his DraftX video. I was blown away by his single minded motor for moving toward the basket and scoring. Very impressive. And clearly he has some range to shoot as well.

Then I saw him on defense and went

Undersized from head to toe by long armed and strong so he will get his shot off anyway.

His DraftX says he wants to grow his game to a 2/3. I don't know a lot about him as a on ball defender but he will struggle with team defense and team defense is really important. On ball, I think he will do ok. Get steals with those long arms.

He is basically Shabazz with worse defense. I think he will be a very frustrating player. Lots banging your head against the wall moments with him where you say to yourself, why. He has the talent. Why doesn't he get it.

He wont be the best player on the floor but he will shoot like he is. And if he doesn't, he will get lost for stretches except for crashing the offensive glass.

Going to take him 3-4 years to find his grove. Probably a late bloomer. He has lots to learn. He will frustrate you like Kevin S has.

Not a player I think fits who the Wizards have become nor someone I think would fit in offensively into a team concept.

Players like Otto, VO, CJM, Burke, Len, Kelly O are much better choices for the Wizards.

[hands11]

Hey Niv and board math Wizards.

If you have the time, could you do a math breakdown on age of players, average, mean, etc on the playoff teams remaining.

I think it would be good to see an analysis of correlation between age and playoff success.

I guess in their would also be playoff experience of players.

Just a quick glance at team rosters. I see plenty of players over 30.

[montestewart]

I agree with those picks Nivek with some caveats--Burke remains good value for a team simply wants a pretty good point guard. I don't think all-star consistency is there.

With Bennett I just think that offensive minded but undersized powerforwards face a much harder transition than any other position in basketball. Again, I was absolutely mind blown by the fact that Derrick Williams has been as poor as he has been. High IQ player with MINDBLOWING advanced stats, great tournament production, looked good on the eye test, but he faced such a big leap in how he had to play basketball at the next level that he just couldn't get it going. I see the same with Bennett.

I don't really see those issues for Olynyk. He'll give up some boards and points on occasion due to not being defensively focused, but he's going to play basketball the same way as he did at Gonzaga--screening the ball then knocking down face up jumpshots or using his length and savy against other players.

I'm not. I said stay away from him.

Regarding Derrick Williams, on 3/7/2011:

Here's a plan:

* Draft Derrick Williams
[AND THE REST OF A RICHLY DETAILED nate33 PLAN]

Sounds close to the plan I laid out so sounds good to me.

I think in my version I have us trading Lewis exp, a first, McGee and something or another but they are in the same ball park.

And that same day:

As for his position, I hadn't considered him at SF. I thought he was a PF.

But on 3/26/2011:

I have seen enough that I'm not real worried about how he is going to measure.

He is a SF and he is going to be effective immediately in the NBA.

And on 3/25/2011:

Well if they can get Derrick, the combination of him, Booker, and Seraphin could be crushing on other teams. If McGee can develop more, there could be some nasty combination. And lots of dunks.

Plus, he can shoot the 3 ball. Get him about there with Nick and Wall driving. I can see this working.

Plenty more along those lines. I couldn't find where you said stay away from him, but I'm sure it's in there somewhere.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. This stuff just writes itself.

[hands11]

Keep reading. You'll get to it. Your to early in the process.

3/29/11

This team doesn't need to get figured out this year. They have time to grow and get this right. I was high on D Williams but I'm not locking in on him just yet. If they want shooting range, we can get that elsewhere. What they are missing at SF is a slasher, not power.

But players like Irving and Kembra are gamers at guard and can shoot from range and this team need pure shooters from range.

I can see other ways to do this that seem better longer term than going for D Williams.

4/2/13 Superballman

At this point in my mind I am just hoping for Derrick Williams or Harrison Barnes. Williams is my first choice. He just blew me away in that Duke game, and I know it's just one game, but man what a game! So that did it for me. In much the same way Barnes won me over in the ACC tourney. In any case, I think either would be a welcome addition to the Wizards.

The ATL pick I am hoping for either Chris Singleton or Markieff Morris or Kenneth Faried.


April 1 Severn Hoos

Personal best-case scenario:

WIz draft D. Williams in the top 3.
C. Singleton with the #20 pick.



----

Like I said, it was early in the process. The season wasnt even over yet.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

It would make me so happy for Otto Porter to keep playing his home games at Verizon Center. He is exactly the kind of player they need. They take him, they are getting a floor general, his mentality would be a positive influence that would permeate the entire team.

He's a guy that will be a calming effect on the court, he will improve the team in all facets. In court IQ, in team passing, in rebounding, boxing out, defending, scoring. He is a scoring threat from anywhere, inside/outside, he makes the defense work. He can hit floaters, hooks, jumpers, catch and shoot, off the dribble. He boxes out. He works at both ends of the floor. He has excellent size and length for SF. He has a classic old school game that matches his old school name.

On and on and on....

As a fan he is the type of player I want to root for.

[DCZards]

To be fair, Barnes' ranking from that class is still in the air. The Warriors playoff success aside, his stats have been fairly bad this year.

Fair enough, darkfaze. But I'm putting my money on Barnes continuing to improve and easily ending up in the top ten of his class.

[stevemcqueen1]

Let's dispense with the notion that Chris Singleton's college numbers were ever "great" or even much good. His junior numbers were better than his sophomore and freshman numbers, but were still unimpressive. His eOrtg in his "great" junior season was 101. His 2pt% WAS .466, which would be subpar for a PG. Oladipo this season had an eOrtg of 122 and shot .644 on 2pt attempts. Oladipo more efficient offensively in all three of his college seasons than Singleton in his best.

Comparing their junior years, the only thing Singleton did better was block shots. Rebounding was fairly close (9.4 per 40 minutes for Singleton vs. 8.9 per 40 for Oladipo).

Singleton was considered the best defender in that class and in the nation at the time. Ditto oladipo. Both made significant improvements on the offensive end to boost the hell out of their stock in their draft years. That's the analogy, not that their offensive numbers in and of themselves are relatively equal.

I see and understand your analogy. I sorta tripped over "great" when it came to Singleton's numbers -- which were improved, but still bad. But, I do see your point.

Singleton sorta represents a peril of drafting for defense, at least on the perimeter. So much of defense in the NBA is team concept, coaching and good bigs. You want guys who play with toughness and work hard on defense, but ultimately perimeter defense in the NBA is more about executing the scheme than individual effort/prowess. There are exceptions, of course, but a defensive specialist who was inefficient in college is going to self-check in the pros.

I see defense as being about a combination of toughness, focus, anticipation, strength, and speed. Length helps. The guys who are the best usually have all of those things at a high level. And I do think those attributes are identifiable and projectable. Maybe not from where we sit, but NBA teams can figure it out.

And after all, some defenders absolutely stand out and would probably do so no matter the system you put them in.

I think Singleton could actually play good defense in the NBA, if he could get on the floor regularly. To build up a good body of work on D you need to play. He's had his moments, games where he D'd up Carmelo as well as anyone can. He's just not a good enough player to command minutes I suppose.

[nate33]

Disclaimer: Dat's work is always expansive, well-thought, and better top-to-bottom than what I do. I make comments on his work solely to state my differing opinions.

Tier One- I think Oladipo has the requisite athleticism and driven nature to enter this level. He is a finisher and an energy player who with skill can be an elite SG. Noel also has the tools.

Tier Two-I would put your entire tier three group and add three players: Caldwell-Pope, Franklin, and Wolters.

Jamaal Franklin is Tony Allen morphed with James Harden. I have a hard time seeing him not have success because he has a nose for the ball and he is very active at both ends.

Wolters scores and passes like a Dragic or Calderon.

KCP scores really well and meets the profile of an underratted talent.

Tier Three- I would put scorers like Green, Canaan; skilled big Muscala; athletic distributors Kabongo, Brown, Schroeder; and a few others Dieng, Adetokunbo, and Pierre Jackson here.

All of the tier three guys can play.

I also think Zeke Marshall, DJ Stephens, Juvonte Reddic and a few others belong on NBA rosters.

This is where you get into trouble CCJ. You are so overly optimistic on so many players, that it makes it hard to believe in your predictions. You like everybody, so at least a couple or your predictions will be correct.

IIRC, Dat2U's Tier 1 are basically HOF/MVP type talents. We're talking Lebron, Durant, Davis, Rose. Do you really put Oladipo in that Tier?

You've got 13 people in Tier 2. IIRC, Tier 2 is for perennial all star players, guys like Wall, Irving, Noah, Horford. Are you saying that this draft will produce one MVP caliber player in Oladipo and another 13 perennial All Stars?

In Tier 3 you've got 9 more players. Tier 3 is for high quality starters who maybe sneak into an All Star game once or twice. We're talking about guys like Emeka Okafor, Mike Conley and Kawhi Leonard. So now, we are up to 1 MVP, 13 All Stars, plus 9 more high quality starters. Plus you've indicated a few more guys "can play". I don't know if that means they're starting caliber too. Clearly, this is the best draft in history.

[payitforward]

But if you isolate out just the scoring tools he [Beal] demonstrated without caring about the numbers, you'd have seen a picture perfect jump shot with awesome range, tremendous shot selection and IQ, a nice little floater game, smooth dribbles and athletic straight line drives with physical finishing ability--i.e. all of the tools to be a big time scorer in the NBA. Remember all of the incredulity about all of the Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen comparisons Beal drew? He was getting them from all over. There were people who saw the similarities in the tools and people who couldn't see it because what they were thinking about were the numbers.

Yup, an over emphasis on numbers at the expense of an eye test can be a mistake. Last year at this time when some on this board were doing back flips over Jae Crowder "numbers," I consistently argued that after watching Crowder numerous times at Marquette he didn't pass the eye test...at least as far as being a lottery pick was concerned. Thus far, I think that's turning out to be true.

People need to get over Bazz's frosh numbers and recognize that, given his impressive offensive versatility, he's likely to be a very good NBA player.

BTW, I also argued that Beal was a better shooter than his frosh numbers showed and that the Zards should draft him over any player not named Anthony Davis.

Just as an over-emphasis on the "eye test" at the expense of the numbers can be a mistake. A good process would include both scouting (which is not the same as "watching") and good statistical analysis.

Nobody looked at Crowder as a lottery pick. He was taken in Round 2 and was a rotation player on a much better team than the Wizards. You can't use him as a negative example of the meaning of numbers. The opposite.

Put it this way: NCAA efficiency numbers can produce "false positives" -- guys who put up terrific numbers in college but don't put up good numbers in the league. But I can think of no case where NCAA numbers produced a "false negative" -- i.e. a guy who put up bad numbers in college but became a good NBA player.

Shabazz Muhammed put up bad efficiency numbers as a (relatively old) freshman. Can he be the first example of a "false negative" by putting up better efficiency numbers in the league? Why of course he can -- anything is possible. Is it likely? Why no, it's not likely.

Another point: very very few guys post a higher WS40 in the league than in college where the level of opponent is lower. Harden, for example, has never reached an NBA WS40 equal to his Freshman year in college.

Muhammed's WS40 as a college Freshman was somewhere around the average of an NBA SG. He'll struggle to reach that level in the league.

Note: "ability to do X" isn't how games are won/lost. The refs don't count up "abilities" after the horn sounds and then declare a winner. Numbers and only numbers and nothing but numbers is what wins games. Stats. By definition, the team w/ more points at the end of a game, i.e. the winner, was more efficient, put up better numbers, had a better team WS40. The opposite is mathematically impossible.

Call him Shabust Muhammed and be done with it.

[stevemcqueen1]

It would make me so happy for Otto Porter to keep playing his home games at Verizon Center. He is exactly the kind of player they need. They take him, they are getting a floor general, his mentality would be a positive influence that would permeate the entire team.

He's a guy that will be a calming effect on the court, he will improve the team in all facets. In court IQ, in team passing, in rebounding, boxing out, defending, scoring. He is a scoring threat from anywhere, inside/outside, he makes the defense work. He can hit floaters, hooks, jumpers, catch and shoot, off the dribble. He boxes out. He works at both ends of the floor. He has excellent size and length for SF. He has a classic old school game that matches his old school name.

On and on and on....

As a fan he is the type of player I want to root for.

That's similar to how I feel about Porter too. The gist of it is that Porter is a player who takes virtually nothing off the table. I don't see dominant ability. I don't think he's going to score 20 a night. I don't think he'll be a lock down defender, noted around the league for his defense like a Ron Artest or Tony Allen.

But he's demonstrably good at most things and seems squeaky clean from an intangibles perspective. He'll keep the ball moving, get hockey assists, etc. He'l help with team rebounding and is a terrific rebounder for his position. He'll communicate well and play strong positional and team D. He'll make his open shots and offer Wall a 3 pt outlet from the corner out to the FT line extended. He'll do some offensive creation, get himself to the FT line, score from mid range. He'll be a great presence in the locker room and give us another serious, mature professional. You know Wittman would love him and be able to work with him. He's the perfect personality to bring in IMO.

The upside is admittedly a bit disappointing for such a high pick. But since this is not a good class, what can you expect?

And if you believe Wall can become a true superstar then we don't necessarily need to hit a home run with this pick to build a contender. Porter can be a key part of our build, a good starter, someone we can plug in at SF and not have to worry about upgrading for a decade. That is outstanding value for an 8th pick in a bad draft class IMO.

[pancakes3]

Keep reading. You'll get to it. Your to early in the process.

ugh...

I think Singleton could actually play good defense in the NBA, if he could get on the floor regularly. To build up a good body of work on D you need to play. He's had his moments, games where he D'd up Carmelo as well as anyone can. He's just not a good enough player to command minutes I suppose.

ehhhhhh... I do agree that he d's Carmelo up very well but that seems more like a Blatche/KG thing - just one of those weird perfect storms of matchups. From what I've seen of Singleton's defense in general is that he uses his hands, chest, and shoulders too much. He would have been a grade-A defender in the 80's but in today's league it's much more about your feet, your hips, and your positioning. He certainly has all the physical tools to be a lockdown defender and defense is probably the only thing you can say with certainty that can be taught on a pro level. The jury may still be out on him being a serviceable defender.

The problem - as you alluded to - is him being a self-check on offense. If he ever develops a consistent 3-ball he would be guaranteed a long and semi-lucrative career. However, as it is, with his shooting being at best streaky and his dribble entirely nonexistent, he just has no business being out there.

Just very frustrating. At the very least, we were all hoping on getting a Trevor Ariza type, if not a Taj Gibson or even the aforementioned Shane Battier. Instead we've got a Luc Mbah a Moute with even worse defense.

[verbal8]

Dat does a great job putting together his rankings. He gives us plenty to talk/debate about….although, I admittedly know very little about most of the international players in his rankings. The two players I think Dat is most wrong about this year are Bazz and McLemore, who he has at 9. I think McLemore could turn out to be the best player in the 2013 NBA draft.

McLemore as being like Joe Smith or Okafor, guys who were amazing college players, but only solid players as pros. I think he won't be able to create enough in the half-court to be an elite SG.