Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[stevemcqueen1]

When people start getting really specific with what we need--3rd guard, stretch 4, etc.--I think that's too narrow a focus. They're focusing on today's needs before FA. I think we've got to look longer term. We're not making the pick in a vacuum, but the only definite long term pieces we've got are Wall and Beal and Nene is probably a long term piece. The canvas is still somewhat blank and we're still in the market for long term starters at the 3 and the 5 IMO. That's what I'd want to get out of this draft pick ideally.

An outstanding defensive 5 like Noah or Gasol would make our team incredibly good. An outstanding 3 & D SF with passing ability like Paul George would too. That's why Noel and Porter are my top two right now. I really hope we move up and get one of them.

Noel especially. He's on his way to being essentially the same player that Noah is. They have basically the same strengths and weaknesses. The same things people question about Noel are things people questioned on Noah. I remember my bottom line on Noah - whatever team gets him is going to win a lot of games. Same thing with Noah.

Yeah, it's pretty odd how much Noel reminds me of Noah. I think his ceiling is higher than Noah's though because he's a springier, more explosive athlete. He's coming into the league younger too. And, while Noah is very strong, he's not very bulky. I think Noel is eventually going to carry a little more strength and bulk on his frame. Noel is more of a blue chipper than Noah was, hence why he should get drafted higher than Noah did.

The rebounding and defensive and passing ability are so much like Noah though. I agree, whichever team gets him should be able to win at least 40 games every year he's healthy.

[Nivek]

In my similarity scores, Noah doesn't show up as being very similar to Noel. He's actually fairly unique, at least among the players in my database. There's only one player that's reasonably close: Tim Duncan as a freshman. Then there's a solid step down in terms of similarity to players like Greg Monroe, Hasheem Thabeet, Derrick Favors, Patrick Patterson. But none of that second group is really all that close. Noah is pretty far down the list.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also think that, since we're building a similar construction to the Bulls, it makes a lot of sense for us to go get our own version of Noah.

I wonder what it would take to move up to #1 from #8?

[Dark Faze]

I don't know that we've ever seen a guy quite like Noel. There have been a lot of shot blockers, but none as mobile or as quick as him at that height. Young KG comes to mind, but he wasn't the shot blocker/rim protector that Nerlens was.

[DCZards]

Kentucky would be the safe bet for going #1.

If he plays like Barnes and Shabazz the hype train will come to a halt.

Are you talking about the same Barnes who was just named to the NBA all-rookie first team?

[Nivek]

Since when did All-Rookie "honors" mean much of anything? It's mainly a function of points per game among rookies. There are players who ended up being quite good that made All-Rookie, and then there were first team All-Rookie honorees that haven't turned out so good, like -- Michael Beasley, Al Thornton, Andrea Bargnani, Randy Foey, Jorge Garbagjosa, Ron Mercer (remember him?). Landry Fields made it a couple years ago (with a much better rookie season than Barnes just had), and has been ineffective since. Last season, 7 players were named 1st team.

This year's team is...umm...not well-chosen. Waiters was pretty bad. Barnes was okay, but Drummond, Valanciunas, and Harkless had better years. Singler wasn't much good, and he's 2nd team. Zeller was AWFUL through the first part of the season, but got better as the season went on. Still probably shouldn't have been 2nd team, though.

First team should have been Davis, Drummond, Valanciunas, Lillard and MKG. Second team: Barnes, Beal, Harkless, Prigioni and then...one from the group of Copeland, Nicholson or Jenkins.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't know that we've ever seen a guy quite like Noel. There have been a lot of shot blockers, but none as mobile or as quick as him at that height. Young KG comes to mind, but he wasn't the shot blocker/rim protector that Nerlens was.

Davis is the closest I can think of. Ewing and Camby were great collegiate shot blockers too, but they didn't get the PT early that Davis and Noel.

Noel is the best shotblocker of his generation. Best Boston prospect since Ewing. The defensive instincts are remarkable. He gets a lot of steals for a big man, just a disruptive player that doesn't really have to gamble to produce big plays.

[hands11]

[quote="stevemcqueen1"]I don't see a perimeter player that can create off the dribble as being a huge need for the team. Only for the second line as a third guard, and I think that could be pretty easy to get outside the early part of the draft.

John is so good and so ball dominant that we don't really need a bunch of creators. I would just put a bunch of unselfish shooters on the floor with him. Preferably three guys who can shoot from 18+ feet but definitely at least two.

I don't want to get into a OKC-like thing where everyone bags on one of the ball dominant guys for hogging the ball and shooting bricks while the other guy isn't being assertive enough. "X player shouldn't be taking the ball out of John's hands."

Plus Beal's role should be factored. He's going to be increasingly ball dominant as he matures as a player, will be the secondary offensive creator in time. If we find another wing who can do a little above average creation, but be a reliable jump shooter, that should be plenty good enough.

I think our ideal wing should make his bones in other ways than creation. Shooting + defense ideally. If I had my choice, I'd want someone who can start at the three in any situation and be a knock down catch and shoot player, do a little light creation when John is out, rebound, pass, and play great defense. Kawhi Leonard or Nic Batum types would be fine for me, though I'd probably want someone a little bigger than both. Someone who is more of a pure forward.

Otto Porter!

I just think he's a great fit. We look like we're committing to Wittman. We need to be thinking about the types of players who won't end up in his dog house. Someone who is tough, very unselfish, and very mature and would basically be a dream for anyone to coach. That's Porter. I'm starting to think I'd take him second overall even if the rest of the league wouldn't take him until the third or fourth pick at the earliest.

When people start getting really specific with what we need--3rd guard, stretch 4, etc.--I think that's too narrow a focus. They're focusing on today's needs before FA. I think we've got to look longer term. We're not making the pick in a vacuum, but the only definite long term pieces we've got are Wall and Beal and Nene is probably a long term piece. The canvas is still somewhat blank and we're still in the market for long term starters at the 3 and the 5 IMO. That's what I'd want to get out of this draft pick ideally.

An outstanding defensive 5 like Noah or Gasol would make our team incredibly good. An outstanding 3 & D SF with passing ability like Paul George would too. That's why Noel and Porter are my top two right now. I really hope we move up and get one of them.[/quote]

First, you talk about not defining a specific need and then you turn around and do the very same thing. Of course we need to define what we need. There is no consensus #1 in this draft. And there are several players grouped at a simpler level. So from there, you pick the one that fits your defined need(s) and make moves that add up to more then you started with. i.e. you add VO but move Webster. Seem kind of like a later move that has upside with seems to me like less of an addition then adding a Len or CJM who are only adding upside. Otto also seems like a lateral move but there are valid reasons for doing it.

You say we don't need a 2 that has handles because of Wall. I couldn't disagree more. If we could land Jack, that would be a perfect fit. This team desperately lacks players with handles. Good teams have more then one player that can do that. And finding that playing in FA is not nearly as easy as you make it out to be. And we don't have the money to find then anyway.

That said, I do believe Beal will get better with his handles. That will help. But we still need that kind of player to run with the second group.

As for Otto. You get no agreement from me about him being a solid player and person. While VO was an early target for me, Otto was the other. Again, back when he was ranked lower and a great value.

In a draft like this, I could see Otto going #1 overall. Why not. What makes any of the other simpler top prospects any better a pick then him. And while some might not agree, Len could be the #1 as well. I don't see Noel as so heads and shoulders above them as prospect. I think some of the Noel hype is in part to do with Davis, the team he played for and him being injured so we didn't get to see a lot of him. Not saying he wont be good. Just saying so will other players.

As for VO. I think he will be like a Kawhi more then I think Otto will be.

So while you say we shouldn't target a type of player, you clearly are. You just are defining things differently with different needs. I will assume most people posting here are posting with long term in mind so bringing that up doesn't seem to give credit to what others are posting.

3&D SF - we already have that. And they have 2D working on a 3.
Taking the ball out of Walls hands - I don't think anyone is suggesting that. A third guard doesn't equal that.
Long term 5 ? - Clearly. We need that and its been talked about a lot. That is why Len is talked about.

Len, Otto, Noel, VO, CJM, Burke, Dieng, Kelly. I think they are all mature players that Randy would really like.

Players I think might frustrate him. Bennett & Shabazz. Maybe even McLemore but for different reasons.

[hands11]

What are some examples of guys being drafted, in the lottery, as stretch fours who actually ended up being decent value?

Ilyasova was drafted 6th in the 2nd round.
Anderson was drafted 21st.
Novak was drafted 2nd in the 2nd round.
Rashard Lewis was drafted 3rd in the 2nd round.

Of all the guys drafted in the lottery over the years (Bargnani, Villanueva, etc.), Nowitzki is the only guy who is more valuable than his draft position.

Discussions about drafting guys like Bennet concern me. Stretch fours are created, not drafted. Find an athletic big with intelligence, work ethic, and a good free throw percentage. He can develop a perimeter shot.

Mike Muscala is a C in college, but I think he has nice range on his shot. Like Olynyk, I could see him playing some PF in the NBA. He could end up becoming a great value pick in round two because of his rebounding and offensive versatility.

I think its going to be more then "some" PF. I see him as more of a PF/C than a C/PF

Muscala is the key to the 2nd round.

[DCZards]

Since when did All-Rookie "honors" mean much of anything? It's mainly a function of points per game among rookies.

First team should have been Davis, Drummond, Valanciunas, Lillard and MKG. Second team: Barnes, Beal, Harkless, Prigioni and then...one from the group of Copeland, Nicholson or Jenkins.

I agree. Making the all-rookie team means about as much as buying into a player's hype out of high school. But I do disagree with putting MKG on the 1st team over Beal...and probably over Barnes. Unlike Barnes in GSW where Curry and Thompson are the top dogs, MKG went to a team where he was perfectly positioned to be the showcase player and I don't think he produced enough given that opportunity. In fact, the day may come when the Bobcats wished they had taken Barnes over MKG. Just sayin'.

[The Consiglieri]

Necromantic jockey here. But this was sitting on my computer for a day or so when it got interrupted with busy-ness. Whatever.

The analogy I'm making is that in both cases, both players didn't follow the 99.9% path of college hoops recruits, Drummond got w/UConn several months later than recruits later than normal, Muhammad set up with UCLA at the end of the recruiting process, but then was suspended for the season, and understood he wouldn't be playing in '12-'13 until the NCAA reversed its self during the season. In both situations the run up to the season was not normal.

Secondly, both players played for teams that had no senior leadership to speak of, no leaders to speak of, and massive instability at the coaching level, and poor to horrible chemistry.

If you want to talk specifics on how the offense worked, that's fine, Muhammad had 10x the involvement as Drummond, or even Len for that matter, or hell, even Beal (who had to deal w/shot jackers around him as well), definitely had more say and more opportunity. I would not disagree. My entire post wasn't addressing that issue though, it was attacking the issue of arriving in a new environment that may not be a comfortable one AND dealing with an environment that is horrible for young players to develop in. Calhoun was being hounded into retirement by an array of sanctions possibly coming down on the program, and the leadership at UConn had left, Walker had left, and nobody there was able to really help Drummond learn the ropes in a safe environment like with the Pistons, with Muhammad, Howland was being hounded out the program, all UCLA affiliated peeps despised his system and felt he wasn't using Muhammad or the talent available properly at all, and UCLA had been hit with a massive bullying, instability rap w/one of their stars the previous year that was so bad, perhaps their best young player was set to be booted. No leadership there either.

I don't disagree w/what you had to say, but your points in the end, didn't really address anything that I was actually discussing, which was focused on how elite recruits (#1/#1a ranked Drummond in '11, #1/#1a ranked Muhammad in '12), can have iffy seasons when the environment isn't remotely well suited to their needs. Compare what Drummond went through in '11-'12, w/what Davis and MKG went through that season? It's night and day. These are 18 year old kids.

Except he's not.

Sure, you make some fine points in advocating for the idea that Bazz may be better than his numbers suggest. (The most compelling point being that Howland's system tended to depress the perceived value of his players. We've seen many of his recruits show little in the NCAA's despite high ranking as recruits, and belying their later track record in the pro's). But yes he was out of shape and maybe poorly integrated with the program due to turmoil etc, may be better than he showed on court. Maybe.

You gloss over that key and critical point though. Shabazz' high ranking had a great deal to do with scouts' perception that he had an unusually mature game and body for a kid of his age. That his upside may have been higher than it is. That he may continue to grow literally and figuratively. This opinion (that he is the #1 overall talent in the country) was formed by his performance over the years playing against kids up to 2 years younger than him. And in what has turned out to be a consensus weak draft class. There's a reason we have Varsity and JV teams in schools, we pit kids against others with similar physical maturity. He was being measured with the wrong yardstick, thus you have to discount that error in ranking. Would he have been ranked #1 against Anthony Davis, MKG and Brad Beal? And scouts get it wrong often anyway. Or do you want to trade this year's #1 pick for Josh Selby or Harrison Barnes.

Point being, when pitted against competition who was not less mature, his numbers did not bear out the hype suggested by his ranking. You may state that he was handicapped by a bad situation, ok great, but he had an opportunity, better than most, and proved to be inefficient when he was no longer able to benefit from others' disadvantages (less physical maturity).

Drummond was perhaps immature for his size and athleticism. He's grown significantly, emotionally, and lived up to the ranking suggested by his size, surprising many who thought he suffered from a poor work ethic etc. His immaturity was a key knock against him. But kids grow up. He did.

Shabazz does not have that disadvantage to overcome (immaturity) nor is the knock on him that he lacks passion for the game, thus his upside is lesser: this may be all we get from him, no great growth or further development. Thus Drummond is not a fair analogy for Shabazz, if anything Shabazz suffers from the comparison. You make the case that he is secretly better than he looks, but If this is in fact all we get from him, then it ain't enough.

I like his passion and competitiveness. He works hard for his points. Maybe he improves based on that drive and desire. Always a good sign. But his talent is less than the perception of it once was. He is probably not the most talented player in his draft class.

All very good points. Don't disagree w/much that you said at all. Only a few minor points, though to be fair, the 18 year old thing was a slip up, and a rather ironic one as well. I know he's 20, but fair play, and points go to you

[stevemcqueen1]

All very good points. Don't disagree w/much that you said at all. Only a few minor points, though to be fair, the 18 year old thing was a slip up, and a rather ironic one as well. I know he's 20, but fair play, and points go to you

I agree with the gist of doclinkin's post as well. But there is just simply no way this is as good as Bazz gets. No 20 year old player has learned everything he is going to learn. Is his upside relative to the other players from his class less than when we thought he was a year younger? I'd say yes. But he's still got upside, still has room to grow. He has plenty of room to improve as a shooter and ball handler, and especially as a passer and facilitator.

[The Consiglieri]

Since when did All-Rookie "honors" mean much of anything? It's mainly a function of points per game among rookies.

First team should have been Davis, Drummond, Valanciunas, Lillard and MKG. Second team: Barnes, Beal, Harkless, Prigioni and then...one from the group of Copeland, Nicholson or Jenkins.

I agree. Making the all-rookie team means about as much as buying into a player's hype out of high school. But I do disagree with putting MKG on the 1st team over Beal...and probably over Barnes. Unlike Barnes in GSW where Curry and Thompson are the top dogs, MKG went to a team where he was perfectly positioned to be the showcase player and I don't think he produced enough given that opportunity. In fact, the day may come when the Bobcats wished they had taken Barnes over MKG. Just sayin'.

btw, I'll freely own my role in the Harrison barnes haterade battalion. I was very interested in him after his tourney run in '11 after a middling season (w/a really slow start), but after improving not a whit in '11-'12, I bashed the hell out of him, quoted the grantland hate piece, and generally loathed the idea of taking him. The only thing that caused me to reconsider is when he was outstanding at the combine in terms of agility related tests that showed he was plenty athletic, contrary to how he had looked throughout his career at UNC. Really caused me a great deal of wonder. I thought the warriors got an absolute steal when he (and Drummond) dropped that far, but I also was glad the wiz didn't take him.

I'd be shocked if he isn't an all star by '14-'15, I was wrong, and I own it.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I was just typing for literally an hour breaking down the draft and prospects, when for no reason my internet window closed wiping it all out. It was not saved so when I reopened the window it was gone.

I don't have the energy to redo it.... so here's a cliff notes version of my board.

1. Noel - Injury/health enough a concern for me to hope we don't get the top pick.

2. Porter - my personal favorite, ideal sf for this team, and ideal match with Wall and Beal.

3. Bennett - Has all the skill and talent. Unfortunately the annals of the NBA contains a lot more Derrick Colemans and Kwame Browns than Michael Jordans and Tim Duncans. But in baseball terms, has the ability to be a 5-tool player.

4. Len - a 7-1 255 center with agility and touch. Just about all we know, but really all we really need to know. Foot is a concern though (see Grant Hill).

5. McCollum - a heady and hard working combo guard who can score, facilitate, and defend. Ideal 3rd guard to team with Wall and Beal.

6. Olynyck - 7 foot PF who can shoot. Gives Wall another shooter to feed, fills the requested stretch 4 void.

7. Burke - PG who was NCAA player of the year. Shooting ability and mentality/drive make him a player that would make the Wizards a better team and will get him on the court somewhere somehow.

8. Zeller - 7 footer, highly skilled and high character.

9. Oladipo - SG with excellent athleticism and perimeter defender. A bench/role player, but the type of players championship contenders need.

10. Dieng - ideal Okafor understudy/backup/replacement.

[hands11]

Barnes landed in a great situation given what he does well and what he doesn't.

He has two ball handles/primary scoring options out there and if one of them goes out they bring in another in the form of Jack. That leaves Barnes in a position that he doesn't need to create his shot. Which is what a lot of folk on here worried he won't be do well.

Good situation for him. With a great motivational coach. And playoff experience so early in his career.
He gets props for putting in the work post college to work on his body and game. And for playing with in his skills. He is a pretty disciplined player.

GS is a nicely constructed team

Curry more healthy this year.
No Monta Ellis.
Klay in year two
Add Jack, Landry and Bogut healthy for the playoffs
and having a younger Barnes instead of R Jefferson

GS did well with the last step of their rebuild. And Curry was healthier this year.

Wizards really need to find thier Jarrett Jack. Wall will also be healthy next year and Beal is better then Klay.

[DCZards]

3. Bennett - Has all the skill and talent. Unfortunately the annals of the NBA contains a lot more Derrick Colemans and Kwame Browns than Michael Jordans and Tim Duncans. But in baseball terms, has the ability to be a 5-tool player.
t.

You do realize that Derrick Coleman was an all-star caliber player and for 6-7 seasons averaged around 20 pts., 10 rebs. You can't put him and Kwame Brown in the same category.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Gotcha DCZ, but I wasn't comparing them to each other. Just off the top examples of players who fulfilled potential and some who didn't.

But what do you think of my Wizards board?

I'm just glad we are finally coming up on the combine and lottery!

[kirubel94]

I know you guys aren't big fan of blacks or Jews (me neither), but this particular Jew/black has caught my sight.

Edited to make a couple of points:

(1) This line of thinking is preposterous. The notion that someone should be disqualified or favored because of their ethnic background or national origin is beyond stupid, especially considering how international the game has become.

(2) People read these forums. We've had plenty a poster from Europe. It has to be beyond insulting for them to read something like this. Imagine yourself in their shoes.

Nothing personal, kirubel94 -- you're far from the only person talking like this -- but this has to stop, IMO

Your edit made me laugh. But in all seriousness, this has nothing to do with them being Euro, it's is just that the Euro's Ernie drafted haven't had any success. It would be stupid for me to say that all Euro's cant play. As you can see there a lot of Euro's in the league who are great players.

[hands11]

I was just typing for literally an hour breaking down the draft and prospects, when for no reason my internet window closed wiping it all out. It was not saved so when I reopened the window it was gone.

I don't have the energy to redo it.... so here's a cliff notes version of my board.

1. Noel - Injury/health enough a concern for me to hope we don't get the top pick.

2. Porter - my personal favorite, ideal sf for this team, and ideal match with Wall and Beal.

3. Bennett - Has all the skill and talent. Unfortunately the annals of the NBA contains a lot more Derrick Colemans and Kwame Browns than Michael Jordans and Tim Duncans. But in baseball terms, has the ability to be a 5-tool player.

4. Len - a 7-1 255 center with agility and touch. Just about all we know, but really all we really need to know. Foot is a concern though (see Grant Hill).

5. McCollum - a heady and hard working combo guard who can score, facilitate, and defend. Ideal 3rd guard to team with Wall and Beal.

6. Olynyck - 7 foot PF who can shoot. Gives Wall another shooter to feed, fills the requested stretch 4 void.

7. Burke - PG who was NCAA player of the year. Shooting ability and mentality/drive make him a player that would make the Wizards a better team and will get him on the court somewhere somehow.

8. Zeller - 7 footer, highly skilled and high character.

9. Oladipo - SG with excellent athleticism and perimeter defender. A bench/role player, but the type of players championship contenders need.

10. Dieng - ideal Okafor understudy/backup/replacement.

Nice summary of things posted about these players.

Here is my take.

You don't draft a S4 with your top 8-11 pick when you have bigger holes to fill and you can get that player in the 2nd round.

Bennett - you left out the glaring issues with him. Mainly smarts and focus on defense. And passing. He is not a complete two way player like the names below.

But these are the player comments that stand out.

Len - a 7-1 255 center with agility and touch. Just about all we know, but really all we really need to know. Foot is a concern though (see Grant Hill).

McCollum - a heady and hard working combo guard who can score, facilitate, and defend. Ideal 3rd guard to team with Wall and Beal.

Oladipo - SG with excellent athleticism and perimeter defender. The type of players championship contenders need.

Dieng - ideal Okafor understudy/backup/replacement

Porter - my personal favorite, ideal sf for this team, and ideal match with Wall and Beal.

All that said, J Jack is the difference maker for GS. That would be CJM. VO is more the Kawhi type. Len and Dieng fill your need for future center.

The piece of information we are missing is whats the deal with Trevor A. As a GM I would want to have a heart to heart with him. So you in or you want to move on. I need to know your commitment. Here is what we could offer you to stay. Are we on the same page or not. We need to know because if we aren't on the same page, we might want to take Otto as your replacement. That's what I would need to know. If he has bought in and you are on the same page with a future contract, then go fill other needs.

[DCZards]

Hands, I'm aware of Bennett's shortcomings as a defender but I'm curious as to why you think "smarts" is an issue.