Analysis: Noel brings tremendous risk

[Takuya Kimura]

Nerlens Noel is an extremely high risk pick due to two reasons : the track record of top 2 drafted big men having injury-riddled career, and the track record of highly-picked rim-protecting big men in the NBA.

Since big men generally take longer to develop, this post will only examine the high pick big men from 2000 to 2010, sparing the current rookie and sophomore the bust label this early into their career. One vital criteria to judge a bust is whether he pays dividends to the team that drafted him. For example, if a player only panned out in his 10th season on his 4th team in the career, he is a bust to the team that drafted him.


Question mark 1:Injury risk and high pick expectation


Top 2 drafted big men from 2000-2010 who busted because of injury:


1. Greg Oden 2007 #1

A “once in a lifetime” prospect, the real next Bill Russell at the time.


2. Tyson Chandler 2001 #2

Got into the All-defensive team in the 10th season of his career. As good as he is right now, I doubt anyone in the team has the patience to wait for 10 years.Tyson Chandler is a bust to whichever team that drafted him in retrospect.


3. Andrew Bogut 2005 #1

Awesome player when healthy, as we are now watching him on the Warriors, except he rarely has been, which is why the Bucks traded him for Monta Ellis, who can at least step on the court. A bust, for the same reason as Tyson.


4. Kenyon Martin 2000 #1

Never the same in his fifth year onwards. Never had any accolades.


5. (Arguable) Yao Ming 2002 #1

The main reason that this is arguable is his commercial value. Also, even though he had the best performance of the five players over their careers, he was injured in the most crucial of times. In 07-08 when the Rockets were at their best with a 55-27 record, Yao was injured for the playoffs, and Rockets were out in the first round.




Conclusion:
With higher pick comes higher expectations, and the biggest fear I have going forward for Noel is that he will become a player like Bynum and Bogut, who have shown more than a few flashes of brilliance, coupled with the typical unwillingness of management to give up on top picks (aka Andrea Bargnani philosophy), which force teams to continually invest a huge amount on him, waiting in vain for that day he will eventually stay healthy, like the Sixers this year. To me, this is even worse than being a complete bust which costs you little like Hasheem Thabeet. Even if medical reports show that Noel is very likely to recover fully from his ACL injury, the truth is that his body type pretty much guarantees that he will missing games every now and then. One fact from an earlier post: If you are above 7’0, you are in the 99th percentile of human height, to the extent that even brute players like Andrew Bynum and Bogut cannot handle.Even Dwight Howard of all people took this entire season to get back to his athletic peak.



Sidetrack: The full list of top 2 drafted big men from 2000 to 2010

Kenyon Martin
Stromile Swift
Kwame Brown
Tyson Chandler
Yao Ming
Darko Milicic
Dwight Howard
Emeka Okafor
Andrea Bargnani
LaMarcus Alridge
Greg Oden
Michael Beasley ?
Blake Griffin
Hasheem Thabeet

Conclusion:
For all of the supposedly next Hakeem and Duncan, only 2 out 14 became a franchise player (Dwight, Yao in the early years), and another 2 became second-tier players (LMA, Griffin), which is a very alarming statistic.



Question mark 2: Transition to the NBA

Even if Noel gets to stay healthy, it DOES NOT guarantee that he will pan out, since drafting rail-thin rim-protecting athletic big men who offer little skills otherwise have had mixed results at best. All the pre-draft comments are extracted from DraftExpress.com and you will find how stunningly similar they are to that of Noel’s right now.


The GOOD:

 Joakim Noah

“As Noah mentioned in the interview we conducted—and I fully agree with—it’s dangerous for a player like him to get “too heavy” and lose the biggest advantages he possesses in terms of his athleticism and running the floor. ”

Reflection: Joakim has an unparalleled combination of smarts and effort league wide, can the same be said for Noel?


The BAD:

 Brandan Wright H: 6' 10" W: 200 lbs

“What did stand out more than anything was the phenomenal athleticism, length, touch and instincts he has at his disposal. He’s a fluid athlete with excellent quickness and body control, able to explode off the floor effortlessly to finish bounce passes with a two handed dunk, catch alleyoops thanks to his terrific hands, block shots on occasion, or put-back any offensive rebounds that are lurking around the rim.”


 Hasheem Thabeet H: 7' 2" W: 267 lbs

“His offensive role may have expanded on the college level, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll ever be much of a presence on this end of the floor in the NBA. With that said, he’ll be able to make an impact as a shot blocker and position rebounder immediately, and if he can stay out of foul trouble and lands on a team willing to foster his skills, could become a serviceable center in the NBA for a long time. ”


 Jordan Hill H: 6' 10 W: 232 lbs

“While Hill’s frame looks solid, it’s pretty clear that he’ll have to hit the weight room if he’s to be able to effectively compete with some of the more physically developed big men he’ll face in the NBA. He lacks strength in his lower body in particular, and this, coupled with his below average post-moves makes him fairly limited at this point with his back to the basket.”



 Ekpe Udoh H: 6' 10" W: 237 lbs

“Udoh can do some impressive things on the defensive end, though, showing outstanding timing with his shot blocking and using his length very well. He’s a great shot blocker both in man-to-man situations in the post and coming over from the weakside, showing pretty good rotational awareness and doing a good job in general in Baylor’s zone. ”



 Tyrus Thomas H: 6' 8" W: 217 lbs

“In terms of physical attributes, there are few players in the NBA right now who can match Thomas’ combination of length and athletic ability. His leaping ability is something that has to be seen in person to truly comprehend. Beyond the fact that he has a 40+ inch vertical leap, runs the floor like a guard and explodes off the ground like he has a trampoline at all times at his personal disposal, he uses that athleticism to the fullest extent, which separates him even further from the Stromile Swifts and Tyson Chandlers of the world. ”


Conclusion:
Athleticism alone does not make you a good NBA player, and the question is: What does Noel offer aside from his athleticism? I understand that Noel is a better prospect than many of these players, but the question remains.

[Jazzfan12]

Chandler isn't a bust and was an elite player

Why is Chandler not in the thin, raw big men analysis when he was so thin he came into the league as a SF

Are guys who come into the league at 23 (Thabeet, Udoh, Hill) really comparable to Noel? Is a complete dumbass in Tyrus really comparable to Noel when Noel is pretty smart?

Why did you limit your analysis to top 2

Noel has a lot of risks, but this seems like bad research and analysis.

[206]

Yao a bust? Invalidates everything else. Noel is the next Marcus Camby. He's worth the 1st in this draft.

[ManualRam]

Chandler isn't a bust and was an elite player

Why is Chandler not in the thin, raw big men analysis when he was so thin he came into the league as a SF

Are guys who come into the league at 23 (Thabeet, Udoh, Hill) really comparable to Noel? Is a complete dumbass in Tyrus really comparable to Noel when Noel is pretty smart?

Why did you limit your analysis to top 2

Noel has a lot of risks, but this seems like bad research and analysis.

not sure how you put noel in the "pretty smart" category. he doesn't look like that to me. lots of gambling, playing defense for blocks and steals and questionable decision making in general.

[Takuya Kimura]

Chandler isn't a bust and was an elite player

I would like to hear your argument on how Chandler WAS an elite player, and I still maintain that he is a bust to the Bulls.

Why is Chandler not in the thin, raw big men analysis when he was so thin he came into the league as a SF

He is already in the first analysis, and even if he is included, I would still put him in The BAD category, for reasons explained.

Are guys who come into the league at 23 (Thabeet, Udoh, Hill) really comparable to Noel? Is a complete dumbass in Tyrus really comparable to Noel when Noel is pretty smart?

I am only comparing Noel to those players in terms of their physical attributes and acknowledged that Noel has more potential than those players, but many scouts consider Noel as a role player at best offensively in the future, like all of those players mentioned. And one thing I found particularly interesting about Tyrus Thomas,again from DraftExpress :

Thomas is generally an extremely aggressive player, noticeably being more concerned with helping his team get wins rather than get on a highlight reel. He is a humble and very intelligent player both on and off the court, and is said to be an excellent student in the classroom and a highly coachable player in LSU’s practices.

It would not be a stretch to say that he has a higher ceiling that any other player in this draft class considering his physical attributes and how long he’s been playing basketball, but his intangibles lead you to believe that he also has what it takes to actually realize that potential as well.



Either DraftExpress is wrong, or they asked the wrong people for Tyrus Thomas (they used 'is said to be'), or Tyrus changed a lot after entering the league. Personally, I believe it is the latter of the three which is the biggest reason, since there is such a gigantic dropoff in the BBIQ level as per the site and the reality. Any normal person wouldn't have mistaken Tyrus Thomas and "a very intelligent player". To add, NBADraft.net gave him an 8/10 for his intangibles.

Also where is your evidence on Noel being intelligent?

Why did you limit your analysis to top 2

Noel is a guaranteed top 2 pick, which puts him in the group.

[Eoghan]

TL;DR version: All big men are the same. Seems logical.

[Jazzfan12]

Noel gambled defensively to start the year, but he seemed to learn from his mistakes each game. He rotated over to the right spots defensively all the time by the end of the year and was a good passer and didn't try to force his scoring too much. I think those are the traits of smart players, 99% of 18 year old big men gamble too much at the beginning of their Freshman seasons.

Noel's defense also couldn't be that lacking in fundamentals since he made a huge impact defensively and Kentucky's defense completely collapsed without him even though they replaced him with another future NBA center.

[TheGoodDoctor]

Considering how weak this draft class looks I would say even he wasn't truly "elite" getting a good big man isn't quite that big of a risk as you make it out to be.

[tidho]

Despite whatever risk there is, he has too much upside to pass on. I don't think there's a team in the league that won't take him first overall.

An earlier poster compared him to Camby. I think that's a pretty good comparison and although there is a much smaller collegiate sample set for Noel, I'd be happy with getting 'Camby' in this draft.

[Dr Positivity]

If Noel has Camby's career, I'd bet on the GM who takes him 1st getting fired for it after someone else picked in the top 7 ends up a top 15 player in the league and a 7x all-star, whoever that is. Maybe not a Chris Paul to his Bogut, but a Deron Williams, sure, which is enough to make the guy that took Camby-Noel feel batman

[ManualRam]

Noel gambled defensively to start the year, but he seemed to learn from his mistakes each game. He rotated over to the right spots defensively all the time by the end of the year and was a good passer and didn't try to force his scoring too much. I think those are the traits of smart players, 99% of 18 year old big men gamble too much at the beginning of their Freshman seasons.

Noel's defense also couldn't be that lacking in fundamentals since he made a huge impact defensively and Kentucky's defense completely collapsed without him even though they replaced him with another future NBA center.

i've never came away from watching noel in any setting and thinking that he's a smart player. he was still overzealous with his rotations, ball-watching to cheat. attempting reach around poke steals on the perimeter and post. no understanding of weak side integrity, both in terms of rebounding and protecting against dump offs. launching himself and removing himself from plays. he can still be manipulated by pump fakes because he SEEKS shot blocks instead of just getting them. players who seek shot blocks can be manipulated.

he's a willing passer and he should be since no one respects his offensive game. he's given the room to see passing angles and still attempts some strange passes from odd angles which is what i saw from him in HS, trying to show off his "point forward" ability.

[reapaman]

Well I think he's too raw on both sides of the ball even on defense . He's also very skinny and right now he's mostly an athletic shot blocker. Its gonna take him about as long as it did tyson chandler to develop and make a big impact. Remember the bulls waited 5 years for chandler to be their consistent defensive anchor then gave up on him, thats way too long to wait on a top 3 pick and still not get the results you want. In additon he has already had two major knee injuries within a few years (including some minor issues in-between) which just adds to the growing concern you already have when drafting a big man.

Thats just way too many issues for my taste. His risk/reward value isn't good and risk is way higher than the reward imo. I hate when people just chalk up a draft as bad and say well you minus well pick a certain guy only for them to look stupid a year later when some guys they overlooked greatly exceed their expectations. You always treat draft classes as equal and try to get the most realistic value for each guy you draft. Don't just draft a guy because he has supposedly high potential but actually has a low chance of actually reaching it or even being better than some of the other prospects that have supposedly low ceilings.

[Mundo]

I personally would not draft him at the 1 spot. I just don't think he will be a dominant player. The only reason I would draft him is to sit him out the whole year in order to Wiggins.

[EricAnderson]

I dont think hell ever be a star but with his energy and passing ability i can see him being a shorter version of Noah but in this draft is that a bad thing?

None of these guys is exciting at 1 so its not like youre gonna be passing up a superstar over him

[Ruzious]

Noel gambled defensively to start the year, but he seemed to learn from his mistakes each game. He rotated over to the right spots defensively all the time by the end of the year and was a good passer and didn't try to force his scoring too much. I think those are the traits of smart players, 99% of 18 year old big men gamble too much at the beginning of their Freshman seasons.

Noel's defense also couldn't be that lacking in fundamentals since he made a huge impact defensively and Kentucky's defense completely collapsed without him even though they replaced him with another future NBA center.

i've never came away from watching noel in any setting and thinking that he's a smart player. he was still overzealous with his rotations, ball-watching to cheat. attempting reach around poke steals on the perimeter and post. no understanding of weak side integrity, both in terms of rebounding and protecting against dump offs. launching himself and removing himself from plays. he can still be manipulated by pump fakes because he SEEKS shot blocks instead of just getting them. players who seek shot blocks can be manipulated.

he's a willing passer and he should be since no one respects his offensive game. he's given the room to see passing angles and still attempts some strange passes from odd angles which is what i saw from him in HS, trying to show off his "point forward" ability.

His combo of blocks, steals, rebounds, and fouls indicates that the chances he took paid off a lot more than they would for a player who takes too many chances and doesn't play smart - especially for a player his age. Did he go for some pump-fakes? Sure, but so would/has any freshman shot-blocking center not named Anthony Davis.

[Ruzious]

I dont think hell ever be a star but with his energy and passing ability i can see him being a shorter version of Noah but in this draft is that a bad thing?

None of these guys is exciting at 1 so its not like youre gonna be passing up a superstar over him

I think he's longer than Noah - and probably has the edge athletically.

[EricAnderson]

I dont think hell ever be a star but with his energy and passing ability i can see him being a shorter version of Noah but in this draft is that a bad thing?

None of these guys is exciting at 1 so its not like youre gonna be passing up a superstar over him

I think he's longer than Noah - and probably has the edge athletically.

That is true im just comparing them in the sense that like Noah Noel will probably never be a very good offensive player but like Noah hes a very good passer and has a great motor i think theyll have similliar careers..

[ManualRam]

noah can be a hub of a number of offensive sets despite not being a scoring threat because he's that good of a passer. along with m.gasol, his passing is elite. his ball skills and ability to think like a guard developed early because noah grew up as a guard.


noel's not that type of passer and he doesn't have that "hub-of-the-offense" type capability imo.

[EricAnderson]

noah can be a hub of a number of offensive sets despite not being a scoring threat because he's that good of a passer. along with m.gasol, his passing is elite. his ball skills and ability to think like a guard developed early because noah grew up as a guard.


noel's not that type of passer and he doesn't have that "hub-of-the-offense" type capability imo.

Well see..Noah his freshmen year wasnt nearly the player Noel was either..Noel isnt perfect but to say a player is what he is at 19 and cant get better is foolish..

[ManualRam]

noah can be a hub of a number of offensive sets despite not being a scoring threat because he's that good of a passer. along with m.gasol, his passing is elite. his ball skills and ability to think like a guard developed early because noah grew up as a guard.


noel's not that type of passer and he doesn't have that "hub-of-the-offense" type capability imo.

Well see..Noah his freshmen year wasnt nearly the player Noel was either..Noel isnt perfect but to say a player is what he is at 19 and cant get better is foolish..

im confident in saying that noel will never develop the passing instincts and acumen that noah has.