NBA Games Discussion Thread

[fishercob]

FWIW/FYI, here are the remaining teams in the playoffs and their rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency during the regular season:

Heat: 2,9
Bulls: 23, 6
Knicks: 3,18
Pacers: 19, 1
Spurs: 7, 3
OKC: 1, 4
GSW: 11, 14
Grizz: 17,2

Rankings of the 8 teams that lost in the 1R:

BOS: 7,24
Nets: 8,17
ATL: 18, 10
MIL: 22,12
DEN 5,11
LAC: 9,8
LAL: 9,20
HOU: 6,16


Several quick takes:

(1) Nivek has referenced studies have that have shown that offense and defense are equally important -- defenses don't "win championships" any more than offenses do. That said, interesting to see BKN and LAC taken out by elite defensive teams with mediocre offenses.

That was true, but the "equally important" thing seems to have changed a bit over the past decade. From 2977-2001, the average regular reason rank for the eventual champ was 5.2 on offense and 5.6 on defense. From 2002-2012: 7.9 and 4.3. We see the same thing in the runner-up numbers. From 1977-2001 the ortg rank was 6.6; the drtg rank was 7.3. Since then: 10.0 and 5.0.

Eliminating the biggest outlier during that 2002 to present period (the Pistons, who ranked 18th on offense) doesn't change the analysis much. Over the past decade, reality has finally caught up with the conventional wisdom, and defense has become a bit more important than offense when it comes to competing for and winning a championship.

Hmm, this seems like a worthwhile blog topic.

Should Indy close out the Knicks and the Spurs beat GSW (so we're a tad premature), the last 4 teams standing will be:

Miami (2O, 9D)
Indy (19O, 1D)
Memphis (17O, 2D)
Spurs (7O, 3D)

That would certainly seem to support Nivek's assertion that reality is catching up the conventional wisdom, with the potential final four being ranked 1,2,3 and 9 in D (avg 3.75) and far worse in O.

Here are the top 4 players of each of those team:
Miami: Lebron, Bosh, Wade.....Battier?
Indy: George, Hibbert, West, Hill
Memphis: Gasol, Randolph, Conley, Allen
Spurs: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Leonard

For the Wizards, this supports two things we already knew:

(1) Assuming reasonable seasons from Wall and Beal, we can be a playoff team and maybe win a round with a healthy and productive Nene and Okafor.

(2) Unless Wall/Beal ascend to Lebron/Wade heights, a dominant defensive big is mission-critical to the team's long term growth. Finding that guy -- be it Len, Adams, Asik, Deeptu McPullup, whomever -- is our top priority.

[hands11]

Chicago put up a good fight this year. They can hold their heads high. To be that short handed and do what they do was over performing.

OKC just had bad luck. Once Westbrook went down, you know they would have issues. But props to MEM. I like watching them play.

Big night of ball tonight. NY playing to not get eliminated. Hopefully Indy takes them down.

As GS vs SA. Been a fun series. I like both teams. Hopefully GS makes a game of it. I expect Curry and Klay to rebound after a poor game. Hopefully this goes to game 7

So who if anyone could bump Miami. I think MEM could give them a run for them money. SA as well.

Should be interesting to see what happens to Miami if they don't win a title this year. I'll they keep it together or try to trade a piece like Bosh to see what they can get in return.

[Rafael122]

I think this is what the NBA envisioned, and I'm not being sarcastic. They're all about the small market teams and promoting that the league is balanced and there are no such things as super teams. Well if the Pacers and Spurs win tonight, 3 of the 4 teams in the conference finals are small/mid-market teams. With 1 being guaranteed to go to the NBA Finals.

[Ruzious]

Outside of Sacramento and the Commisioner's office, are there 10 people in the world that are passionate about preferring an NBA team in Sacramento over Seattle?

[GhostsOfGil]

I think this is what the NBA envisioned, and I'm not being sarcastic. They're all about the small market teams and promoting that the league is balanced and there are no such things as super teams. Well if the Pacers and Spurs win tonight, 3 of the 4 teams in the conference finals are small/mid-market teams. With 1 being guaranteed to go to the NBA Finals.

During the OKC game, they interviewed David Stern. He was practically pitching a tent while talking about this exact same thing.

[fishercob]

I think this is what the NBA envisioned, and I'm not being sarcastic. They're all about the small market teams and promoting that the league is balanced and there are no such things as super teams. Well if the Pacers and Spurs win tonight, 3 of the 4 teams in the conference finals are small/mid-market teams. With 1 being guaranteed to go to the NBA Finals.

I don't think the NBA has a vested interest in small markets making the Finals. It will hurt TV ratings for sure (can you imagine an Indy-Memphis Final? "Gasol! Hibbert! The NBA FInals on ABC!!!!!!!). But I do think the NBA will laud themselves for competitive balance and say that any well run franchise -- regardless of market size -- can have success. And that;s before the new luxtax reality sets in. The competitive landscape could look quite different in 3-5 years because the 3-star model may well disappear.

[verbal8]

I think this is what the NBA envisioned, and I'm not being sarcastic. They're all about the small market teams and promoting that the league is balanced and there are no such things as super teams. Well if the Pacers and Spurs win tonight, 3 of the 4 teams in the conference finals are small/mid-market teams. With 1 being guaranteed to go to the NBA Finals.

I don't think the NBA has a vested interest in small markets making the Finals. It will hurt TV ratings for sure (can you imagine an Indy-Memphis Final? "Gasol! Hibbert! The NBA FInals on ABC!!!!!!!). But I do think the NBA will laud themselves for competitive balance and say that any well run franchise -- regardless of market size -- can have success. And that;s before the new luxtax reality sets in. The competitive landscape could look quite different in 3-5 years because the 3-star model may well disappear.

Which is better for the NBA financially? The Knicks and an LA team getting swept by the Heat on the way to a championship or them being extended to 6 or 7 games by 2 gritty small market teams. It seems like for the teams, play-offs are big money, because the players are essentially playing for free.

[Nivek]

I think this is what the NBA envisioned, and I'm not being sarcastic. They're all about the small market teams and promoting that the league is balanced and there are no such things as super teams. Well if the Pacers and Spurs win tonight, 3 of the 4 teams in the conference finals are small/mid-market teams. With 1 being guaranteed to go to the NBA Finals.

The problem with this line of reasoning is that the major provisions (punitive luxury tax) of the new CBA haven't even kicked in yet.

What we're seeing this season is something that's always been possible if smaller market teams had been well-managed.

[Nivek]

FWIW/FYI, here are the remaining teams in the playoffs and their rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency during the regular season:

Heat: 2,9
Bulls: 23, 6
Knicks: 3,18
Pacers: 19, 1
Spurs: 7, 3
OKC: 1, 4
GSW: 11, 14
Grizz: 17,2

Rankings of the 8 teams that lost in the 1R:

BOS: 7,24
Nets: 8,17
ATL: 18, 10
MIL: 22,12
DEN 5,11
LAC: 9,8
LAL: 9,20
HOU: 6,16


Several quick takes:

(1) Nivek has referenced studies have that have shown that offense and defense are equally important -- defenses don't "win championships" any more than offenses do. That said, interesting to see BKN and LAC taken out by elite defensive teams with mediocre offenses.

That was true, but the "equally important" thing seems to have changed a bit over the past decade. From 2977-2001, the average regular reason rank for the eventual champ was 5.2 on offense and 5.6 on defense. From 2002-2012: 7.9 and 4.3. We see the same thing in the runner-up numbers. From 1977-2001 the ortg rank was 6.6; the drtg rank was 7.3. Since then: 10.0 and 5.0.

Eliminating the biggest outlier during that 2002 to present period (the Pistons, who ranked 18th on offense) doesn't change the analysis much. Over the past decade, reality has finally caught up with the conventional wisdom, and defense has become a bit more important than offense when it comes to competing for and winning a championship.

Hmm, this seems like a worthwhile blog topic.

Should Indy close out the Knicks and the Spurs beat GSW (so we're a tad premature), the last 4 teams standing will be:

Miami (2O, 9D)
Indy (19O, 1D)
Memphis (17O, 2D)
Spurs (7O, 3D)

That would certainly seem to support Nivek's assertion that reality is catching up the conventional wisdom, with the potential final four being ranked 1,2,3 and 9 in D (avg 3.75) and far worse in O.

Here are the top 4 players of each of those team:
Miami: Lebron, Bosh, Wade.....Battier?
Indy: George, Hibbert, West, Hill
Memphis: Gasol, Randolph, Conley, Allen
Spurs: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Leonard

For the Wizards, this supports two things we already knew:

(1) Assuming reasonable seasons from Wall and Beal, we can be a playoff team and maybe win a round with a healthy and productive Nene and Okafor.

(2) Unless Wall/Beal ascend to Lebron/Wade heights, a dominant defensive big is mission-critical to the team's long term growth. Finding that guy -- be it Len, Adams, Asik, Deeptu McPullup, whomever -- is our top priority.

What's interesting as well is that the underlying analysis wouldn't change at all if Westbrook and Rose had been healthy. OKC was #1 in ortg this season, but still 4th in drtg. The Bulls were in the 20s on offense, but were 6th in defense. Chicago likely would have been an above average offense with Rose, but they'd still be a defense first team.

[GhostsOfGil]

SA takes the series. The Mem/SA western conference finals should be a good one.

[Nivek]

George Hill being out is a serious blow to Indy. He was one of their 2-3 most valuable players this season, and was by far their best defender at PG. Augustin rated well below average in my stuff. The Pacers would've been better off keeping Price.

The NBA's concussion protocol sounds like it's going to take awhile before Hill can get back on the floor.

[Higga]

Warriors

Memphis is gonna knock off San Antonio.

I think New York takes their series to 7 games, but I have no idea who will win.

[fishercob]

George Hill being out is a serious blow to Indy. He was one of their 2-3 most valuable players this season, and was by far their best defender at PG. Augustin rated well below average in my stuff. The Pacers would've been better off keeping Price.

The NBA's concussion protocol sounds like it's going to take awhile before Hill can get back on the floor.

Yep, I fear (b/c I hate the Knicks and my moms is from Indy) that this will swing the series. Crushing to the Pacers IMO.

[FAH1223]

Indiana made stupid mistakes to end the game but didn't really lose that badly. If they can just get back to bullying their way inside and their guards not making the mistakes of last night, they should take it back in the Field House. They definitely miss George Hill but New York is still very predictable and they just so happened to hit a couple more shots. ISO Ball won't work in Indiana.

Memphis-SA is the Western Conference Finals I hoped for. Both teams have a REAL shot vs. Miami. It is a small shot, but they both atleast have a shot to make the NBA Finals compelling. I really am glad OKC is not in it at this point after their fraudelent showing last season in the NBA Finals. Where Scott Brooks failed, Pop or Hollins will do better.

[Nivek]

George Hill being out is a serious blow to Indy. He was one of their 2-3 most valuable players this season, and was by far their best defender at PG. Augustin rated well below average in my stuff. The Pacers would've been better off keeping Price.

The NBA's concussion protocol sounds like it's going to take awhile before Hill can get back on the floor.

Yep, I fear (b/c I hate the Knicks and my moms is from Indy) that this will swing the series. Crushing to the Pacers IMO.

If the Pacers lose the series, it'll probably also cue up the narrative that Carmelo is finally becoming a true superstar or some such nonsense. At least until Lebron takes him to school in the conference finals. I'd much rather see Indy go through to face the Heat, and hope they can get Hill back.

[Kanyewest]

If the Knicks beat the Pacers, I'll cue up the talk that the Pacers aren't really that good. Or perhaps they got a few to many calls against them. If Hill is healthy, Pacers should take care of business in game 6 but the Knicks chances greatly improve without Hill in the lineup.

[hands11]

Grom Niv

Heat: 2,9
Bulls: 23, 6
Knicks: 3,18
Pacers: 19, 1
Spurs: 7, 3
OKC: 1, 4
GSW: 11, 14
Grizz: 17,2

Rankings of the 8 teams that lost in the 1R:

--

I see team with D 1,2,3,4,6,and 9h

Who were the team at 5,7, and 8 ?

This came up several times before. The Wizards are going about it the right way. Strong D is a great foundation to a winning club. And once Wall returned, the offense started to raise in the ranks. So keep the D going ( add a future defensive center ) and help the offense: 3rd SG/PG, S4)

Also, when you get a moment, could you run a break down on the playoff team based on age ?

[FAH1223]

Spurs shot lights out, the Grizzlies never gave up 14 three pointers throughout the season.

The Spurs in their season series have kept ZBO in check. He hasn't really had good games against them lately and today was no different with Splitter fronting and Duncan's length bothering his shots.

We'll see what Game 1 brings but the Grizzlies may need to go small... Pondexter is streaky but made shots.. and got them back in the game in the 2nd half along with Bayless. This isn't 2011 when Duncan was hobbled, McDyess and Blair were out there getting cooked by Randolph.

[dangermouse]

Spurs had the Grizz looking like the Wizz.

[queridiculo]

Somebody explain to me how the Spurs play game 2 on Tuesday when the Heat don't have their first game until Wednesday?