Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[Dat2U]

I don't think Otto Porter gets past Cleveland. They are a numbers driven front office. They are desperate for a SF. Porter looks good by the numbers. I think it's a mortal lock (unless Cleveland lands the #1 then all bets are off) and they are picking no worse than 6th (3rd best odds).

GMs are in love with Ben McLemore's jump shot and like they were with Wesley Johnson but the better perimeter NBA players can use their dribble to create additional space. McLemore doesn't have that skill. But still, McLemore is another mortal lock as a top 5 and likely top 3 pick.

Nerlens Noel may slip from the #1 spot but I can't see him sliding too far. Another lock as a top 5 pick.

Orlando is desperate for a PG. I don't think you can make a case for Trey Burke going #1 but if the Magic miss out on the top pick, I suspect Burke will be in their sights. I don't think he gets past Sacramento under any circumstances. New Orleans may give him a hard look as well.

Oladipo may fall a bit, but only to Detroit at 7. He fits the mentality that Dumars loves to see in his players.

After the top 5 it gets a little sketchy. I don't see pure fits for C.J. McCollum in NO, SAC or DET. Unless Phoenix falls in love I suspect McCollum will be available. Alex Len & Anthony Bennett could also slip due to not being able to workout for teams. I think one or both may be available as well.

Cody Zeller (athletic testing) & Shabazz Muhammad (8'8.5 standing reach - legit SF size) will get mid lottery consideration as well. Rudy Gobert too with his showing at the predraft camp and his insane length.

Dennis Schroeder may end up a top 10 pick if he continues to workout. If he shuts it down he's probably got a promise late lottery/mid 1st.

Skilled bigs are all the rage. Kelly Olynyk will go no lower than Dallas at #13 or Utah at #14.

[hands11]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1643 ... -prospects

Looks like CJL may get a bump back into the last first round.

But for the life of me, I have no idea how Zeller hides his leaping ability so well. I have watch him jump and barely clear the rim. I think he jumps into people or jumps sideways more then he jumps up so you don't see that he can get vertical.

But it is interesting his max is only 2 inches higher then his standing leaps. That doesn't sound athletic to me.

I don't know. I saw him play and it didn't look like his game would translate as a center short of him getting a lot of calls. Now he is a PF. Ok. I didn't see him play there so who knows.

And he always seems to have some weird look on his face.



At least this one I can understand a little.

[mhd]

I don't think Otto Porter gets past Cleveland. They are a numbers driven front office. They are desperate for a SF. Porter looks good by the numbers. I think it's a mortal lock (unless Cleveland lands the #1 then all bets are off) and they are picking no worse than 6th (3rd best odds).

GMs are in love with Ben McLemore's jump shot and like they were with Wesley Johnson but the better perimeter NBA players can use their dribble to create additional space. McLemore doesn't have that skill. But still, McLemore is another mortal lock as a top 5 and likely top 3 pick.

Nerlens Noel may slip from the #1 spot but I can't see him sliding too far. Another lock as a top 5 pick.

Orlando is desperate for a PG. I don't think you can make a case for Trey Burke going #1 but if the Magic miss out on the top pick, I suspect Burke will be in their sights. I don't think he gets past Sacramento under any circumstances. New Orleans may give him a hard look as well.

Oladipo may fall a bit, but only to Detroit at 7. He fits the mentality that Dumars loves to see in his players.

After the top 5 it gets a little sketchy. I don't see pure fits for C.J. McCollum in NO, SAC or DET. Unless Phoenix falls in love I suspect McCollum will be available. Alex Len & Anthony Bennett could also slip due to not being able to workout for teams. I think one or both may be available as well.

Cody Zeller (athletic testing) & Shabazz Muhammad (8'8.5 standing reach - legit SF size) will get mid lottery consideration as well. Rudy Gobert too with his showing at the predraft camp and his insane length.

Dennis Schroeder may end up a top 10 pick if he continues to workout. If he shuts it down he's probably got a promise late lottery/mid 1st.

Skilled bigs are all the rage. Kelly Olynyk will go no lower than Dallas at #13 or Utah at #14.

I think Porter doesn't get past the Cavs/Suns. Both would take him. I see Oladipo to the Suns. He fills a HUGE need as an athletic 2g. Oladipo also fits for the Kings and Pistons (as you said).

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Well day 2 starts off with the centers, and really what an impressive group this draft has. Seeing these guys all together really showcases how strong and deep this draft is with bigs.

Olynyk actually not looking as good as I thought he would, not as fluid as I thought.

Muscala just exudes skill, smooth, hitting almost every shot. They're saying he actually shot the highest percentage yesterday of ALL the players all positions, even so called sharpshooter guards. Shooting drills he hit on I think they said 76% of his shots. Handles the ball well, good size and length, runs well, good hands, soft touch, just saw him hit a nice Duncan-esque bank shot off the backboard. Saying he is likely to go in the 2nd round though.

Gobert is real skinny, a little awkwardness running, but he looks pretty good. Nice movement and shooting around the basket.

Withey doesn't look as strong as I thought.

Noel, Len, Withey, Dieng, Olynyk, Zeller, Gobert, Adams, Muscala, Plumlee. I mean all these guys are 7footers with skill. I mean this is pretty rare for this draft. Bigs are definitely the value of this draft.

[Rafael122]

Odds that Noel drops? Measurements checked out, but he weighs 206 pounds, might not play until Christmas and even then you wonder if he's in shape and has bulked up a bit. The only reason why a team would take him #1 overall is to help the tank for the '14 draft. Maybe I'm being too optimistic and he stays in the top 3, but guys like Oladipo, Burke, Adams, Gobert killed it in the draft combine.

Might be smart for the Bobcats the do that. Or would they back Burke ?

From an organization standpoint, why would the Bobcats do it. They have no coach, what person would take this job knowing they're in for a 50 loss season and your top pick is going to be out for the better part of the season?

[doclinkin]

There's only four more days left to draft lottery hopefully wizards move up 1 or 2 spots.

I think your "post game" has gotten a little rusty since the season ended. They can't move up 1 or 2 spots. They either move up to top 3 or won't move up at all.

... and we could move down.

We have roughly a 10% chance of picking in the top 3
We have a 72% chance of picking 8th
We have a 17% chance of picking 9th
We have a 1% chance of picking 10th.

We're picking 3rd, I told you all already.

[Jay81]

do you think Ernie would draft Rudy Gobert after what happened to Vesely. He may be a good player to take at 8 unlike Vesley who we all knew was going to bust!

[Jay81]

Rudy Gobert -- Apparently Gobert is French for "condor". Gobert's 7'8.5 wingspan is the longest in a number of years. Former draft picks like Saer Sene and Jamaal Maglore come to mind. His 9'7 standing reach is just 5 inches shy of the rim meaning he can likely touch the rim on his tip toes. His 237 lbs is impressive as his body appears that he can put on another 30 lbs without problem. He also measured with a very impressive 4.4% body fat.

[montestewart]

Let me leave it at this: As a black man, it brings back memories of a not-too-distant (and racist) past when I see another black man's "smarts" being questioned based on what I consider the flimsiest of reasons--such as how well-spoken he is. Question a player's shooting, his ballhandling, his size, even his character when there have been documented issues--those things are tangible and often easy to see/access. But you're on shaky ground with me when you question another man's intelligence based on what appears to be nothing more than a gut feeling on your part.

Good post. The issue is at the heart of a broader and more purely basketball issue, that being the selection of players based partially on largely subjective and often seemingly non-basketball related criteria. (I know that was mouthful, but I read it back and think it makes sense.) The book and movie Moneyball partially poked fun at the process of selecting players because they were hard working or good looking. Such things as the way a player talks or looks may have nothing at all to do with how a player will perform on the court. Some of my favorite players ever, including Bird, Ewing, Shaq, and Rodman, were not too verbal when they came into the league. Nowitzki still seems to begin every sentence with "I mean...," and some players like Big Wes and Duncan simply choose silence.

Back in the 70s, it seemed almost every white end-of-the-bencher had the word smart attached to him, whereas virtually no black end-of-the-benchers were ever called smart. Sure, many of those white guys were smart, but no black guys, at all? From better exposure through the media and in everyday lives, I think many fans are able to spot a smart player through his on court play and statistics, regardless of whether he sounds like he's taken public speaking classes. I'm not dismissing communication skills, but confidently and conventionally articulate doesn't by itself mean good player. The all-timers listed above show that being a shy and/or conventionally inarticulate speaker may have very little to do with comprehension and intelligence, on or off the court. I would hope modern GMs aren't too swayed by such superficialities.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Just to play DC's advocate, Beal, Porter, and Burke are light skinned and went to "good" schools as opposed to the darker skinned Las Vegas products of Bennett and Shabazz or the inarticulate tongue-tied country boy McLemore.

hands11 has liked Dieng for a long time too. And Dieng is about as dark-skinned as it gets.

And VO. And MJ. And the Dream.

And it has nothing to do with Country. I love Country people. Hell, my last long term G/F was named Venus and she was from the foothills and one of my best friends is a big old country dude. Actually, a lot of my gfs have have country families. So no, not a country things either.

For what it worth, I also dated Persian, Black, Asian, Spanish, Italian, German. Tall, Short, Blondes, Brunettes, Red heads. College. Non College. What can I say, like is like Baskin Robbins

But thanks for chipping in Nate. This has gotten silly.

This sounds like a challenge. Blonde over 6 feet girl who had a very good sense of touch. Wasn't a gf but did know her. Korean girls when I was overseas. Australian girl. One of my ex-wives is a big yellow black girl and the other looks like Cicely Tyson. I really like dark-skinned Jewish girls. I find Brazilian women very attractive. The love of my life looked like Anita Baker and she was thin but with a good shape.

I find that the only women I don't seem to like are ignorant, close-minded ones. Oh, and ones who have no behind. I'm sorry but that's my thing ....

[dangermouse]

I kinda like Trey Burke as a 3rd guard.

Skilled scorer, whats he like defensively and is he shot happy? If hes just a better version of Crawford maybe im not interested.

That hesitation slow-down and then put the jets on to the rim move... shows he has good instincts.

[stevemcqueen1]

Prediction time:

I think the top four picks in the draft will be Noel, Zeller, Burke, and McLemore. Burke and Zeller are going to go higher than people currently think. Burke is a legit #1 overall candidate. They were the two best players in the country this year and they've got definite NBA tools.

I think claims that Shabazz will fall out of the lottery are ridiculous. His stock is stable somewhere in the top ten. If Waiters can go 4, then he will go in the lottery. If I were San Antonio, I would trade up for him. I think he could go 7 to Detroit.

I think that Len will be overdrafted and probably be the highest drafted guy who disappoints. Consequently, I think we are going to be the ones to draft him.

I think Porter is going to go later than people expect. I don't think there is any chance he goes top four like people think. I think he ends up in the 6-9 range.

I think Bennett is going to drop and be a relative steal. The injury and the maturity questions are the reasons he will drop. I think he's going to be one of the top scorers from this class.

I think McCollum is going to go much higher than people are considering him right now. He'll go somewhere in the top 8 and people will be like, WTF? Then he'll score 18 or 19 PPG as a rookie and people will be like, Oh.

Don't know quite what to make of Oladipo. He should be good. But I can see him ending up being a way worse shooter than people expect. It literally would not surprise me if he ends up being the best player from the class, or a bit of a disappointment and a career role player.

I think Olynyk is going to go outside the top ten, probably at the end of the lottery or just outside and I think he won't end up being a long term starter.

Dieng is going to be a good career backup.

I think Adams is going to be overdrafted and bust. I get a bad vibe about his intangibles. Seems like a guy who has coasted on natural ability his whole life, who isn't the self starter that loves the game like some of the other top guys. Seems like he's going to get paid and then never realize his potential.

And of course, someone bizarre is going to go way higher than people expect. Happens every year. The Cavs will probably be the ones doing the reaching, and then that guy will end up actually being decent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mark Schlereth of ESPN calls the NFL combine the "Underwear Olympics". I agree with him on that and the NBA combine. Physical attributes that mean virtually NOTHING if a guy can't play become tremendously overvalued.

Combines are the reason guys like Faried slip in the draft and tall people with long arm who can leap well, like Jan Vesely, get drafted in the lottery.

I trust performance over time vs good competition much more than freak show data.

It's not an either-or situation, CCJ. I think ignoring any set of data will get you into trouble when evaluating players.

I think looking at Olynyk will make the average scout doubt him. CJ Leslie looks and measures like quite the stud.

Combine IMO=ONE or TWO DAYS spent doing drills that don't directly correlate and measurements that some guys use and others do not.

fish, I hear you but my bias says if a guy can play I don't care if he's three feet tall or three or four steps slow, he can play. Saer Sene can't play. Can Rudy Gobert? I think the shots he blocked the past couple days may be irrelevant.

I have erred with players like Mo Almond because I did totally ignore athleticism. Now, I will say I value it somewhere around 15%. Superstar players need to be skilled and very athletic. However, role players don't in my book. They just need to be very proficient at filling a team need.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Prediction time:

I think the top four picks in the draft will be Noel, Zeller, Burke, and McLemore. Burke and Zeller are going to go higher than people currently think. Burke is a legit #1 overall candidate. They were the two best players in the country this year and they've got definite NBA tools.

I think claims that Shabazz will fall out of the lottery are ridiculous. His stock is stable somewhere in the top ten. If Waiters can go 4, then he will go in the lottery. If I were San Antonio, I would trade up for him. I think he could go 7 to Detroit.

I think that Len will be overdrafted and probably be the highest drafted guy who disappoints. Consequently, I think we are going to be the ones to draft him.

I think Porter is going to go later than people expect. I don't think there is any chance he goes top four like people think. I think he ends up in the 6-9 range.

I think Bennett is going to drop and be a relative steal. The injury and the maturity questions are the reasons he will drop. I think he's going to be one of the top scorers from this class.

I think McCollum is going to go much higher than people are considering him right now. He'll go somewhere in the top 8 and people will be like, WTF? Then he'll score 18 or 19 PPG as a rookie and people will be like, Oh.

Don't know quite what to make of Oladipo. He should be good. But I can see him ending up being a way worse shooter than people expect. It literally would not surprise me if he ends up being the best player from the class, or a bit of a disappointment and a career role player.

I think Olynyk is going to go outside the top ten, probably at the end of the lottery or just outside and I think he won't end up being a long term starter.

Dieng is going to be a good career backup.

I think Adams is going to be overdrafted and bust. I get a bad vibe about his intangibles. Seems like a guy who has coasted on natural ability his whole life, who isn't the self starter that loves the game like some of the other top guys. Seems like he's going to get paid and then never realize his potential.

And of course, someone bizarre is going to go way higher than people expect. Happens every year. The Cavs will probably be the ones doing the reaching, and then that guy will end up actually being decent.

This is pretty on. I gotta say Adams really stands out among this group of bigs at the combine. This panel was unanimous in saying they'd take Adams over Zeller or Dieng. He is shooting very well, making almost every shot I've seen him take, all kinds of shots around the basket out to the top of the key he looks real good and is making them. His footwork isn't the best. I noticed on one drill they were going up with the left on the left side of the basket, and he went up with his right, so going up with his left might be a weakness? Also one drill where they are running up to the top of the key while taking a pass then shooting, the pass bounced right off his hands and away no shot. Not sure if it was bad hands or concentration. Actually just saw another drill he goes up with the left, so that looks fine.

But considering he is 19, his size, physique/strength, athleticism, ability to defend, upside, I am warming up to the idea of Adams at 8. I can see him telling Ernie he wants to run with Wall being the selling point. He looks more offensively skilled than I expected. Also they mentioned something about his sister was an Olympic shot putter. Any Olympian has to put in serious work and dedication, so hopefully that's something he's also got in his makeup.

Gotta love the way he refers to Ernie, Wittman as "dudes".

Really wish Noel, Len, Bennett, Dieng were in this event for some more comparison.

Deshaun Thomas shooting it real well. Looks good, he could be worth a 2nd rounder for a shooter off the bench. And I haven't seen him yet, but they were saying Hardaway Jr has been fantastic and is "destroying" everyone was the term they used. As far as late 2nd rounders, Colton Iverson is also looking surprisingly good out there.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

NBAtv is showing the combine today at noon.

[No-Man]

I kinda like Trey Burke as a 3rd guard.

Skilled scorer, whats he like defensively and is he shot happy? If hes just a better version of Crawford maybe im not interested.

That hesitation slow-down and then put the jets on to the rim move... shows he has good instincts.

Burke is the best player of this class and an All Star in the making, you can't pick him to be your 3rd guard.

He'll be a top4 pick anyway.

Gobert is an obvious bust, much more than Vesely was.

[theboomking]

Hard to keep up with the thread the last few days, which is actually pretty awesome. Back to the comparisons between Griffin and Zeller. I think they are pretty ridiculous. Saying Zeller is like Griffin without the power is like saying someone is Westbrook without the explosiveness. The power is what makes Griffin.

If I were to compare someone to Griffin, it would be Oladipo, which is to say I think Oladipo has the ability to be an explosively athletic and very powerful SG in the same way that Griffin manifests those characteristics at PF. A lot of guys don't play up to their combine number...cough Shelden Mack cough...but VO probably finishes better than his combine numbers would suggest, especially when you factor in his good, but not great length. I think he probably goes top 5, but I would be pretty intrigued to see VO, Beal and Oladipo on the court at the same time. In the right situation, I can see Oladipo making a few All star games, if he can maintain a decent 3P%.

I've cooled on Bennett. A lot of guys on the forum have made very persuasive arguments against him.

I still think there could be great value in taking a big. I think Gobert is going to bust. His 'highlight reel' makes him look like he is playing in sand. On the other hand, Gobert's showing, and Len's surgery might be what allows Len to drop to us.

I'm not sure about Adams. I liked him a lot before as a value pick, if we could have purchased a pick in the teens, or traded up. I think his showing is going to push him up into a range in which he is more of a risk than a value. I still really like him anywhere out of the lotto though.

Oladipo or CJM and Adams could be a great value draft if everyone pans out. On the other hand, it could be a terrible bust of a draft in our last real chance to add a significant core piece.

[theboomking]

Rather than Griffin, what do you guys think about Al Horford as a best case for Zeller, if he develops a better outside game? Their length and athletic measurements aren't too dissimilar, and I think their NBA roles also may not be.

http://www.nba.com/2013/news/05/17/nba- ... index.html
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Al-Horford-415/

[Dat2U]

The biggest concerns with Zeller...

How much stronger will he get? He got badly out-muscled by the Trevor Mbakwe of Minnesota. He got out-muscled by Syracuse's front line. Even by Butler's front line. What happens in the NBA when every team has Mbakwe sized players only much more talented?

His standing reach is not acceptable for a C. There's not one single case in the draftexpress database where a guy with an 8'10" standing reach or below became a passable C. The closest examples are Joakim Noah (8'11") Al Horford (8'10.5") and Ronny Turiaf (8'10.5"). It's passable for a PF. The PF cutoff looking at the history is about 8'9", with only a 3/4 in Thad Young breaking the mold with a 8"8".

So if he has to play PF, then his perimeter game needs to take leaps and bounds. Not just offensively, but defensively as well. The times I saw him, he struggled in rotations and closing out on shooters. I remember a Michigan game in particular where he got burned because he consistently got lost in space.

[tontoz]

Hard to keep up with the thread the last few days, which is actually pretty awesome. Back to the comparisons between Griffin and Zeller. I think they are pretty ridiculous. Saying Zeller is like Griffin without the power is like saying someone is Westbrook without the explosiveness. The power is what makes Griffin.

Zeller doesn't take contact well. Griffin delivers contact that other players struggle to handle. I agree it is a ridiculous comparison.