Heisenberg's Off-season Plan (kind of long)

[ImHeisenberg]

Let me preface this for you- Detroit cannot be built into a contender through any realistic measure of means this summer. It's going to come from internal growth of their young core, shrewd trades and signings and a lot of luck.

What my plan hopes to accomplish is to fill needs for the upcoming season, gather some future assets and hopefully have enough to potentially push for a bottom four playoff berth.

Draft- take Shabazz Muhammad with the 7th pick. Oladipo is my favored, but he isn't going to be available.
With the second round picks, which players will and won't be available is volatile. So, I'll go with take the BPA with both second rounders, but preferably target some point guards, especially if someone like Ray McCollum is available.

Free agency- Let all our FA's go onto the market. Calderon isn't expected to come back, and if we need Bynum or Maxiell to fill in the roster, they aren't going to see offers quickly anyways.

-Here's where we build for the future.
Forget going after big name free agents. They're either not interested in rebuilding in Detroit, or they'll want more than they're worth. We look to fill our roster by absorption.

-We take on the remainder of Richard Jefferson's contract with a future first round pick for Golden State. Golden State no longer worries about going into the luxury tax to resign Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry.

-We also take on Khris Humphries from the luxury tax living Nets with a future first round pick as well.

We now have a veteran SF who can knock down threes, and a backup PF/C. We also have two late first round picks to aid in the building a contender, as cheap rookie deals are the best in the biz.

We let English walk, and buyout the last year of Kravstov's contract ($500K), and that leaves Detroit with roughly 2 million in cap space, once the 7th pick is signed. The remainder will likely be used for one or both of the second round picks.

Our depth chart would look something like this
PG: Brandon Knight/Stuckey/Second round pick
SG: Shabazz Muhammad/Stuckey/Second rd pick
SF: Richard Jefferson/Kyle Singler/Middleton
PF: Greg Monroe/Humphries/Jerebko/CV
C: Andre Drummond/Humphris/Monroe

That leaves Detroit will a decent looking roster, still looking for their drafted players to make the leap, opposed to just overpaying for veterans. It also leaves Detroit with just over 40 million in expiring contracts, which can make them major players at the deadline for any franchise players that may become available, or gives the team tons of cap space in 2014 to resign Monroe and pursue any free agents they deem necessary.

It isn't glamorous, and it's not a crowd pleaser either. But, it's built with a long term business plan in mind to allow the team optimal flexibility and constructing a base to build an enduring championship contender on.

[menten]

you would start richard jefferson over middleton, stuckey and singler?

[ChipButty]

I don't want to sign a backup big to a long term deal, so I have no problems taking Humphries for a year. Their owner doesn't seem to care about money, but they are deep in luxury tax territory, so it would probably save Brooklyn about $20M. They have #22 is this years draft, which isn't a bad spot. I'd try and get Brooks from them as well and give them some cheap bench filler like Krav and pick #56.

[Goldtop]

We traded BG and a future 1st round pick in order to get this capspace a year early.

If we now used that capspace in trades to absorb other teams bad contracts, just to get 2 future 1st round picks and two role players, then what did we end up netting from the original BG trade?

It sounds like all we end up with is 1 extra future 1st round pick, Richard Jefferson, and Kris Humphries.

THAT is what we waited all year for?

If we wanted to wait until 2014 to have capspace, then we would've just kept BG and our own #1 pick.

[Jodi]

No...

[ImHeisenberg]

We traded BG and a future 1st round pick in order to get this capspace a year early.

If we now used that capspace in trades to absorb other teams bad contracts, just to get 2 future 1st round picks and two role players, then what did we end up netting from the original BG trade?

It sounds like all we end up with is 1 extra future 1st round pick, Richard Jefferson, and Kris Humphries.

THAT is what we waited all year for?

If we wanted to wait until 2014 to have capspace, then we would've just kept BG and our own #1 pick.

This isn't "What will Joe Dumars do". This is what I would do. And the Ben Gordon trade was just plain stupid.

Thanks for your feedback.

[Pugz]

you shouldve tried adding more future moves. this just scares me for next season as we'd likely be just as; if not worse.

[pistons]

Late 1st round picks aren't valuable commodities IMO. If the GS pick was unprotected , it would be more interesting , as they are a Steph Curry ankle turn from being a lotto team again. Other than that , this plan seems like it would just extend our drive through mediocrity , and taint our young players with the feel of being a loser. No thanks.

[Pharaoh]

Late 1st round picks aren't valuable commodities IMO.

HotelVitale will be along shortly to explain in depth why late first round picks are gold under the new CBA

They were gold under the old CBA too - super cheap players/prospects that are only guaranteed 2 years of salary!

If the guy you picked 20-30 pans out then you simply pick up the team options on the 3rd and 4th season of the rookie scale.

If he doesn't pan out you let him walk after 2 years!

Those picks (20-30) are probably worth more than the early 2nd round picks, because generally 2nd round picks only get partially guaranteed deals for 2 years.... if the 2nd rounder pans out you have to use your MLE exception on him (Gilbert Arenas Rule)

If you picked that guy between 20-30 you don't have to use your MLE exception on him if he pans out - you pick up his team options!

FWIW: I'm not against absorbing soon to be expiring contracts... if the price is right. I don't think a mid first round pick is enough payment when you're taking Jefferson off the Warriors hands, which directly allows them to re-sign Jack and Landry without paying the luxury tax.

We're helping them keep 2 key players AND helping them avoid a substantial tax bill... and all we get for our trouble is a first round pick?

I think they'd do that deal in a heartbeat... which means we should ask for more

The Nets? Same deal for them - they are well over the tax threshold and are looking like being a "repeat offender". At what point does someone like Humphries become "not worth the trouble"?

Ideally we'd take back a soon to be expiring contract (Jefferson, Humphries) at least 1 future first rounder unprotected (both picks delivered ASAP) as well as a super cheap prospect

GSW have almost $73 mil committed next season - without Jack! Landry is due $4 mil IF he opts in - highly unlikely... so now they're down to $69 mil committed on Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins, Rush, (player option - unlikely he opts out) Curry, Barnes, Thompson, Ezeli, Green, Bazemore, Jones, Machado

Jefferson + Rush = $15 mil in salary... we take both and a 2014 first rounder... they give Jack and Landry most of that money to stay

Brookyln have $86 mil committed next season! Taking back Humphries and Brooks saves them $13.2 mil in salary... and that much again in taxes! Saving them $26 mil surely is worth more than 1 future first?

[pistons]

Late 1st round picks aren't valuable commodities IMO.

HotelVitale will be along shortly to explain in depth why late first round picks are gold under the new CBA

They were gold under the old CBA too - super cheap players/prospects that are only guaranteed 2 years of salary!

If the guy you picked 20-30 pans out then you simply pick up the team options on the 3rd and 4th season of the rookie scale.

If he doesn't pan out you let him walk after 2 years!

Those picks (20-30) are probably worth more than the early 2nd round picks, because generally 2nd round picks only get partially guaranteed deals for 2 years.... if the 2nd rounder pans out you have to use your MLE exception on him (Gilbert Arenas Rule)

If you picked that guy between 20-30 you don't have to use your MLE exception on him if he pans out - you pick up his team options!

FWIW: I'm not against absorbing soon to be expiring contracts... if the price is right. I don't think a mid first round pick is enough payment when you're taking Jefferson off the Warriors hands, which directly allows them to re-sign Jack and Landry without paying the luxury tax.

We're helping them keep 2 key players AND helping them avoid a substantial tax bill... and all we get for our trouble is a first round pick?

I think they'd do that deal in a heartbeat... which means we should ask for more

The Nets? Same deal for them - they are well over the tax threshold and are looking like being a "repeat offender". At what point does someone like Humphries become "not worth the trouble"?

Ideally we'd take back a soon to be expiring contract (Jefferson, Humphries) at least 1 future first rounder unprotected (both picks delivered ASAP) as well as a super cheap prospect

GSW have almost $73 mil committed next season - without Jack! Landry is due $4 mil IF he opts in - highly unlikely... so now they're down to $69 mil committed on Bogut, Lee, Jefferson, Biedrins, Rush, (player option - unlikely he opts out) Curry, Barnes, Thompson, Ezeli, Green, Bazemore, Jones, Machado

Jefferson + Rush = $15 mil in salary... we take both and a 2014 first rounder... they give Jack and Landry most of that money to stay

Brookyln have $86 mil committed next season! Taking back Humphries and Brooks saves them $13.2 mil in salary... and that much again in taxes! Saving them $26 mil surely is worth more than 1 future first?

All good points , but I think they are only "gold" commodities if you have already established a strong core and are looking to add to that group cheaply. We haven't gotten that core yet , and until that happens , every move should be towards grabbing impact players. You MAY get that with a late 1st ... But I'd rather hold onto the cap space for salary dumps that involve us either getting an A. overpaid , but still impact player , or B. getting a lottery pick out of the deal. That's the only way we will truly improve.

[ImHeisenberg]

Serge Ibaka was a mi-20's pick. Jimmy Butler was the 30th pick. Having a first round pick anywhere in the draft is valuable.

Also, Pharoah, it may be a buyers market for bad contracts. Detroit is far form the only team that would be in position to absorb these players, so I imagine an unprotected 1st round pick is a reasonable asking price. Especially as Detroit would only be taking them on for one season, so it really doesn't hamper any long term plans.

[pistons]

That's true , that you CAN get a solid player , but I don't think you can say that you are more likely to get a better player in the 20s than you can in the 30's . . . that's simply not true. It's a total crapshoot at that point. Now mid-to-late lottery , you are much more likely to find an impact player. I'm not saying it can't be done with late 1sts , just is extremely less likely , and it makes more sense to utilize our valuable cap space a little better than on late 1sts , 90 % of whom will never be more than a bench player at best.

[ImHeisenberg]

At least the contracts are favorable. As it looks, Detroit is about to spend around 30 million on "solid" players to make us a fringe playoff team.