Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[tontoz]

Howland factor for guards is absolutely a thing though, not to mention a lot of guards don't look great until their second year of college, so Bazz has that going for him.

I mean if you look at Westbrooks college stats its hard to imagine him being a lottery pick, let alone what he is today.

Westbrook was/is an elite athlete (with good size) which translates to the NBA. He has much more freedom to take guys off the dribble in the NBA which he excels at.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think I may have found a rough comparable for Shabazz Muhammad.

Ruben Patterson. The main similarity is they are both 6'5" SFs.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eru01.html

Muhammad's (FT and 3 pt) shooting stats look better, but were a bit of a surprise. Patterson did a little bit more across the board - rebs(slight) assists and steals. If Muhammad converts better inside and his shooting drops off a little, he might have a similar career path(25 mpg, slightly above average). The upside would be him continuing his improved shooting, while making those improvements which would make him a good starter(assuming defense and assists are decent).

I talk myself out of the poor 2pt FG%, the numbers that still scare me are the steals and assists. I think he belongs in the 1st round of this draft, just 8 is way too soon and I think he is a reach even in the top ten.

I think Jamaal Franklin will be a better pro than Muhammed. I think Shabazz should be an end of round one pick.

[Zonkerbl]

i'm glad cody zellers numbers are reasonable and possibly can make a good pf in the league. I think at the 8th spot without a doubt we'll get a decent player. Thinking len most likely..but oladipo, porter, zeller, mccollum makes a long list of guys who'll fit in well. In the second round i'm now hopping for alan crabbe. I saw he was one of the guys we requested a meeting with and i think he can fit in as a third guard and he has huge size and wingspan. So len and crabbe is who i hope to get minimum

BruceO, I have a sneaking feeling Crabbe would be a good pick at #8.

Forget who asked me who this year's Faried is but I did notice Crabbe weeks before the NCAAs, when his coach overstepped in being demonstratively mean to him. Crabbe's not only a good physical specimen, but I think he's going to really improve over time based on what I infer from his background and upbringing that has been documented.

It was me.

Yay, thanks!

[Dark Faze]

Howland factor for guards is absolutely a thing though, not to mention a lot of guards don't look great until their second year of college, so Bazz has that going for him.

I mean if you look at Westbrooks college stats its hard to imagine him being a lottery pick, let alone what he is today.

Westbrook was/is an elite athlete (with good size) which translates to the NBA. He has much more freedom to take guys off the dribble in the NBA which he excels at.

You could say that about a lot of College guys with bad stats. There are a lot of great athletes in college that don't go top 4.

[Nivek]

I'm not sure why anyone is pointing to Barnes as if he was such a big "I told you so". Barnes was drafted 7th in the draft. It's a pretty good bet that Davis, Beal and Drummond will be better. And it's 50/50 that Lillard, MKG and Waiters will be better. I wouldn't rule out Henson either.

Essentially, he was drafted 7th and he should have been drafted somewhere in the 4-8 range. Seems like the GM's pretty much got it right. Only one clearly inferior player was drafted ahead of him: Thomas Robinson.

Average 4-year PER for a 7th overall pick was 15.2 in the study I did a couple years ago of production by draft slot. Barnes will have to improve a bunch to reach that level.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

That would be fabulous. We could give them Seraphin as ballast to match Kanter's salary. It would help them to replace Kanter, and it would prevent redundancy in our front court. At #14, we could draft McCollum if he slides, or maybe go with Schroeder or Caldwell-Pope. Or maybe even double down on young bigs and get Dieng or Adams.

It's really a dream scenario. We get a legit building block big man and add another backcourt player.

Yeah that would be a dream scenario, a great outcome to a potentially treacherous offseason.

But I don't think it's likely with McCollum in particular. I'm not really sold on Schroeder and Pope, though I'm definitely intrigued by Schroeder. I think McCollum will end up going fairly high because he's a good athlete with great skills and even better production (though against weak competition for the most part). He's this year's Damian Lillard. Such a gorgeous jumper and dribble pull up and some awesome handles.

I don't think it's a stretch to say he could end up being a better than Trey Burke because he's bigger and stronger, not as streaky of a shooter, has comparable handles, and is a more natural scorer that can get to the rim better when his shot is off.

Now that he's healthy and showing up in front of people's eyes agains, it's reminding people, "oh yeah, he's good." Reminding people he's a top ten pick, especially in a weak class. I think he's a viable alternative to Burke for teams, which could lessen the urgency to trade up for Burke.

Plus a team like Utah could use help at both PG and SG, and McLemore and Oladipo are top eight alternatives.

I agree, stevemcqueen, that CJ McCullough could end up better than Burke. He doesn't have the passing skills Burke has and I doubt he ever will. However, CJM will score more, rebound more, defend potentially far better. His conversion to PG could be similar to Chauncey Billups' as he matures.

I think Erick Green is another prolific scorer who might convert to PG/SG fairly well.

Burke is a natural floor leader and scorer in the mold of the Piston's Isiah Thomas. I just don't see him being quite as productive at the next level as he was at Michigan. Some of the bigger, better athletes might outshine him.

[TGW]

Great year to have multiple draft picks. I honestly think #5 is as good as #15 in this draft. Would love to have Office Depot and Olynyk in this draft...that would be an excellent draft IMO if we could pull it off.

[Nivek]

Anyone know why the draft combine results don't include the bench press test?

[Ruzious]

I would trade out of the top 3 if we won the lottery. Say if the Jazz wanted Burke, we could swap our top 3 pick for Kanter and their #14 pick.

That would be fabulous. We could give them Seraphin as ballast to match Kanter's salary. It would help them to replace Kanter, and it would prevent redundancy in our front court. At #14, we could draft McCollum if he slides, or maybe go with Schroeder or Caldwell-Pope. Or maybe even double down on young bigs and get Dieng or Adams.

It's really a dream scenario. We get a legit building block big man and add another backcourt player.

Yeah that would be a dream scenario, a great outcome to a potentially treacherous offseason.

But I don't think it's likely with McCollum in particular. I'm not really sold on Schroeder and Pope, though I'm definitely intrigued by Schroeder. I think McCollum will end up going fairly high because he's a good athlete with great skills and even better production (though against weak competition for the most part). He's this year's Damian Lillard. Such a gorgeous jumper and dribble pull up and some awesome handles.

I don't think it's a stretch to say he could end up being a better than Trey Burke because he's bigger and stronger, not as streaky of a shooter, has comparable handles, and is a more natural scorer that can get to the rim better when his shot is off.

Now that he's healthy and showing up in front of people's eyes agains, it's reminding people, "oh yeah, he's good." Reminding people he's a top ten pick, especially in a weak class. I think he's a viable alternative to Burke for teams, which could lessen the urgency to trade up for Burke.

Plus a team like Utah could use help at both PG and SG, and McLemore and Oladipo are top eight alternatives.

I also think that Utah might value Kanter a lot higher than people expect. The fans seem to be very high on him. Are they overvaluing him? Maybe. But I'm thinking it would take more than Trey Burke and Kevin Seraphin to get him and the 14th pick. I'd throw in Vesely, but I wouldn't want to pay more than that TBH. At that point I'd rather just keep the third pick and use it on Zeller, who I think could be as good, if not better than Kanter anyway. The 14th pick was the kicker that would make me do it.

Utah sends: One potentially good player, already mostly developed + a potential role player prospect
Washington sends: One good prospect + two potential role players

I do think a solid prospect will be there at 14. If not Schroeder, then I'd be OK with a Plumlee or Olynyk or Dieng or Adams at that spot. Karasev and Franklin would also be interesting.

But I think you could give up a little to move up a few places from 14 and get a much bigger return because there is a pretty good tier of players in the 8-12 range. Maybe Zeller does drop to 8ish. Maybe Bazz is sitting there at 10 or 11 or 12. At that point, I'd take the risk and move up because the upside would be so much higher to me than settling for an Adams, Plumlee, or Dieng.

Kanter + Bazz + someone like Archie Goodwin or Reggie Bullock in the second could really add some quality to the team.

If we do get a top 3 pick, I hope EG is smart enough to go with thrice's idea. Expecially with Smart out of the draft (very bad $$'s decision by him, though ya gotta respect him for it), Burke's value to them should be huge, and they likely need a top 3 pick to get him. With that 14th pick, the Wiz can go pure BPA - they still will need a 4th big, imo - with all due respect to Booker fans and Vesely dreamers. They could really improve the team's depth and stay young if that scenario happens. Let's get a top 3 pick!

[Ruzious]

Anyone know why the draft combine results don't include the bench press test?

No, but I question whether it has any value.

[Dark Faze]

They should change bench press to squats.

[Ruzious]

Speaking of Utah, Dennis Schroeder has to be the biggest wildcard for them. He's a small looking guard at 6'2 165, but he's got near 6'8 length - thanks to extremely long hands. He's super-quick and a great ball-handler. If he shows he can shoot, he climbs up the draft order quickly.

[montestewart]

Howland factor for guards is absolutely a thing though, not to mention a lot of guards don't look great until their second year of college, so Bazz has that going for him.

I mean if you look at Westbrooks college stats its hard to imagine him being a lottery pick, let alone what he is today.

Westbrook was/is an elite athlete (with good size) which translates to the NBA. He has much more freedom to take guys off the dribble in the NBA which he excels at.

Also, Westbrook was backing up Collison. Westbrook's role changed (Collison was briefly injured?), and people got a chance to see him as a starting PG-type.

Westbrook was 18 and 19 his years at UCLA and came out of high school not highly heralded (RSCI=114). That's not the kind of player you would assume was a sure-thing high lottery pick ( though he was picked 4th), and I don't see how Howland's system held him back. Westbrook showed scouts an evolving, multi-faceted game that might well evolve further at the next level.

Muhammed arrived at UCLA as a top-2 prospect, and played his single year as twenty year old. That's the kind of player you might expect to be picked pretty high, and I don't see how Howland's system held him back, yet he seems to be regarded as a somewhat one-dimensional scorer who may not be a great scorer at the next level.

If the Wizards choose him, I won't be Vesely-pick disappointed, because they need scorers and he has potential, but I think that pick would be a stretch, the team had greater needs, and there will be better values available.

[stevemcqueen1]

That would be fabulous. We could give them Seraphin as ballast to match Kanter's salary. It would help them to replace Kanter, and it would prevent redundancy in our front court. At #14, we could draft McCollum if he slides, or maybe go with Schroeder or Caldwell-Pope. Or maybe even double down on young bigs and get Dieng or Adams.

It's really a dream scenario. We get a legit building block big man and add another backcourt player.

Yeah that would be a dream scenario, a great outcome to a potentially treacherous offseason.

But I don't think it's likely with McCollum in particular. I'm not really sold on Schroeder and Pope, though I'm definitely intrigued by Schroeder. I think McCollum will end up going fairly high because he's a good athlete with great skills and even better production (though against weak competition for the most part). He's this year's Damian Lillard. Such a gorgeous jumper and dribble pull up and some awesome handles.

I don't think it's a stretch to say he could end up being a better than Trey Burke because he's bigger and stronger, not as streaky of a shooter, has comparable handles, and is a more natural scorer that can get to the rim better when his shot is off.

Now that he's healthy and showing up in front of people's eyes agains, it's reminding people, "oh yeah, he's good." Reminding people he's a top ten pick, especially in a weak class. I think he's a viable alternative to Burke for teams, which could lessen the urgency to trade up for Burke.

Plus a team like Utah could use help at both PG and SG, and McLemore and Oladipo are top eight alternatives.

I also think that Utah might value Kanter a lot higher than people expect. The fans seem to be very high on him. Are they overvaluing him? Maybe. But I'm thinking it would take more than Trey Burke and Kevin Seraphin to get him and the 14th pick. I'd throw in Vesely, but I wouldn't want to pay more than that TBH. At that point I'd rather just keep the third pick and use it on Zeller, who I think could be as good, if not better than Kanter anyway. The 14th pick was the kicker that would make me do it.

Utah sends: One potentially good player, already mostly developed + a potential role player prospect
Washington sends: One good prospect + two potential role players

I do think a solid prospect will be there at 14. If not Schroeder, then I'd be OK with a Plumlee or Olynyk or Dieng or Adams at that spot. Karasev and Franklin would also be interesting.

But I think you could give up a little to move up a few places from 14 and get a much bigger return because there is a pretty good tier of players in the 8-12 range. Maybe Zeller does drop to 8ish. Maybe Bazz is sitting there at 10 or 11 or 12. At that point, I'd take the risk and move up because the upside would be so much higher to me than settling for an Adams, Plumlee, or Dieng.

Kanter + Bazz + someone like Archie Goodwin or Reggie Bullock in the second could really add some quality to the team.

If we do get a top 3 pick, I hope EG is smart enough to go with thrice's idea. Expecially with Smart out of the draft (very bad $$'s decision by him, though ya gotta respect him for it), Burke's value to them should be huge, and they likely need a top 3 pick to get him. With that 14th pick, the Wiz can go pure BPA - they still will need a 4th big, imo - with all due respect to Booker fans and Vesely dreamers. They could really improve the team's depth and stay young if that scenario happens. Let's get a top 3 pick!

Yeah, it would be a great trade for us. 4th big that's then projected to be the primary backup the next year when Okafor leaves in FA and Kanter moves into the starting role? He'd be a backup for several years. He'd need to be able to play both PF and C then. Adams makes some sense if his mid range shot is for real. Dieng as a defensive sub makes sense and he's got a little bit of a jumper. Olynyk would be a great fit if he was still there. Plumlee is a natural C, not sure if he's got the range to play PF but he certainly has the athleticism. Yeah, there would be some good options most likely.

Kanter is interchangeable at PF and C IMO. Natural C in terms of size and strength and footspeed. But enough skill and range to move away from the basket.

I would still try and move up from 14 though. I think picks 8, 9, 10, and 11 could be some of the best value picks in the class.

[Dat2U]

I'm not sure why anyone is pointing to Barnes as if he was such a big "I told you so". Barnes was drafted 7th in the draft. It's a pretty good bet that Davis, Beal and Drummond will be better. And it's 50/50 that Lillard, MKG and Waiters will be better. I wouldn't rule out Henson either.

Essentially, he was drafted 7th and he should have been drafted somewhere in the 4-8 range. Seems like the GM's pretty much got it right. Only one clearly inferior player was drafted ahead of him: Thomas Robinson.

People are responding to the insistence of at least one poster that Barnes was (and continues to be) a mid-first round talent.

Average 4-year PER for a 7th overall pick was 15.2 in the study I did a couple years ago of production by draft slot. Barnes will have to improve a bunch to reach that level.

Again, don't let facts get in the way of your own opinions. I've been wrong about plenty of things, Harrison Barnes thus far is not one of them.

Based on this past season he's worth about a late lottery/mid 1st rounder, and that's being nice. 11 players out his draft class played 20 minutes or more including Barnes, the only two players that played worse than Barnes was Ty Zeller & Austin Rivers (another one of your favorites from last year).

[tontoz]

Howland factor for guards is absolutely a thing though, not to mention a lot of guards don't look great until their second year of college, so Bazz has that going for him.

I mean if you look at Westbrooks college stats its hard to imagine him being a lottery pick, let alone what he is today.

Westbrook was/is an elite athlete (with good size) which translates to the NBA. He has much more freedom to take guys off the dribble in the NBA which he excels at.

You could say that about a lot of College guys with bad stats. There are a lot of great athletes in college that don't go top 4.

Not many college players would be considered elite athletes by NBA standards. Bazz certainly isn't.

[TGW]

Is there anyway to get Office Dipo and Dieng? We'd have arguably the two best defenders in this draft with the highest IQ. They'd be ready to play now.

[Dat2U]

Barnes is going to end up being a lot better than most of that class. He wasn't a mid first round pick, and he doesn't look like he should have been after his rookie year. That claim is unjustifiable.

He looks like a rock solid SF in the mold of a Luol Deng and has surprised with how good he can look on D. We knew before the draft that the creative mid range game was there. We knew he had a pretty jumper with 3 ball range. We knew he could run and finish in transition. We knew he was an explosive leaper with a strong body and excellent size. He definitely was not a mid first rounder, and he probably should have been drafted a little higher than he was. He's not a superstar, but he's a good player who will probably end up being the second best player on a terrific GS team.

The claim is quite justifiable. The stats back up his performance. He went into a perfect situation, he looks good because Golden State had come success, but he wasn't a key piece in that success.

It's the same thing with Klay Thompson. People everywhere are calling him a future all-star. He's been a great shooter but the other aspects of his game fall far short of what's expected out of a very good player. Klay's PER was 12.7 this past season. Klay's offensive rating was 102 which is below average...same as Barnes' by the way. Barnes PER was 11.0. Klay's playoff PER was 10.2! PER is an offensive stat mind you, something that's supposed to make a suspect defender like Klay look good! These are two below average NBA players, yet the media & most fans seem to have a completely different viewpoint.

[Rafael122]

Based on Ford's post-Combine article, it seems like Noel is still the top prospect on the board, especially because if you don't think Noel isn't #1,then who is? So much for my theory that he was going to drop.

[go'stags]

Steve or DCZ, can you guys explain how Jordan Adams was a better across the board this season, with the exception of 3pt% and rebounding, as an 18 year old freshman, than Shabazz was as a 20 y/o? This is in addition to being a much craftier scorer, even "tooliser", than Shabazz came across as when watching the game. If Adams can learn to shoot better he can easily be a lottery pick next year, while simultaneously proving a nice contrast/litmus test for Shabazz. The latter just doesn't measure up IMO.