Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[Nivek]

I've mentioned this before, but it's worth repeating -- The Wizards have needs or pending needs at every position. They have the luxury of picking the best available player in the draft with each one of their picks.

I agree. Just because there are 4 backup frontcourt players (Ves, Booker, Seraphin, Singleton) and 2 backup backcourt players (Temple, Price) doesn't mean the frontcourt is any deeper from a talent perspective.

That said, I think Erik Murphy is at the top of the priority list - a power forward with 3 point range. Erick Green is a notch below, but still valuable seeing as how he can back up both guard positions. But really, any of Muscala, Bullock, Wolters, CJ Leslie, etc. would be valuable.

Murphy can REALLY shoot the ball, but he doesn't much else. Neither did Steve Novak, of course. There are several guys I have rated higher than those two that MIGHT be available at that spot. I'd rather go with one of them.

[Ruzious]

If the Forwards are solidified through the draft and the MLE, there are a few ways to address depth in the backcourt:

The second round pick might have Nate Wolters or Erick Green available, who seem like they could fill the 3rd guard role for the Wizards.

I've been on the Erick Green bandwagon for a few weeks because I thought he'd be a good combo guard at the next level and a possible second round pick for the Zards. I'm a little concerned now about his ability to play SG since he measured at only 6-3 with shoes at the combine. I thought Green was a solid 6-4.

Green does seem to be climbing in some of the mock drafts. I've seen a couple mocks where he's now slotted as a late first round pick.

I'm stunned that you didn't believe me when I said Green is about the same size as Seth Curry. Green measured at 6'3 178, while Curry measured at 6'3 179.

[Ruzious]

Shabazz Muhammad: I'm the best player in the NBA Draft! | ProBasketballTalk


UCLA swingman Shabazz Muhammad out to change perceptions before NBA draft | The Washington Post

Actions speak LOUDER than words.

[No-Man]

Shabazz Muhammad: I'm the best player in the NBA Draft! | ProBasketballTalk


UCLA swingman Shabazz Muhammad out to change perceptions before NBA draft | The Washington Post

Actions speak LOUDER than words.

Who exactly had a better year than him? Burke, McLemore, Porter... thats about it.

[Ruzious]

I've mentioned this before, but it's worth repeating -- The Wizards have needs or pending needs at every position. They have the luxury of picking the best available player in the draft with each one of their picks.

I agree. Just because there are 4 backup frontcourt players (Ves, Booker, Seraphin, Singleton) and 2 backup backcourt players (Temple, Price) doesn't mean the frontcourt is any deeper from a talent perspective.

That said, I think Erik Murphy is at the top of the priority list - a power forward with 3 point range. Erick Green is a notch below, but still valuable seeing as how he can back up both guard positions. But really, any of Muscala, Bullock, Wolters, CJ Leslie, etc. would be valuable.

Murphy can REALLY shoot the ball, but he doesn't much else. Neither did Steve Novak, of course. There are several guys I have rated higher than those two that MIGHT be available at that spot. I'd rather go with one of them.

I hate to keep pumping Dukees, but I think Ryan Kelly is a much better prospect than Murphy - and his 9'2 standing reach (same as Nerlens Noel) has to help. He needs to see a strength and conditioning coach and perhaps a nutrionist - considering his 14.5% body fat. But that high body fat % might indicate there's more potential improvement.

[Dark Faze]

To be fair with Bazz, the fact that he acknowledged that his father is responsible for a lot of his issues is pretty humbling of him.

Most guys wouldn't call out family like that.

[Ruzious]

Shabazz Muhammad: I'm the best player in the NBA Draft! | ProBasketballTalk


UCLA swingman Shabazz Muhammad out to change perceptions before NBA draft | The Washington Post

Actions speak LOUDER than words.

Who exactly had a better year than him? Burke, McLemore, Porter... thats about it.

Was that humor intentional? His own freshman teammate - Adams - who is 2 years younger... had a better year. There are probably upwards of 50 college players who had better years, maybe upwards of 100.

[Nivek]

Dang Ruzious -- Are you reading my spreadsheet or something? Just sorted this season by the schedule adjusted per minute summary stat. Muhammad ranks 98th. His overall rating in YODA would indicate a guy worth picking in the late 1st or early 2nd round. Not "best player in the draft" stuff.

[Nivek]

I hate to keep pumping Dukees, but I think Ryan Kelly is a much better prospect than Murphy - and his 9'2 standing reach (same as Nerlens Noel) has to help. He needs to see a strength and conditioning coach and perhaps a nutrionist - considering his 14.5% body fat. But that high body fat % might indicate there's more potential improvement.

I don't have all the combine stuff entered yet, but YODA doesn't seem to like Kelly all that much. He has a lower overall rating than Muhammad. He can shoot it, but I was really surprised to see how little he rebounds.

[Ruzious]

I hate to keep pumping Dukees, but I think Ryan Kelly is a much better prospect than Murphy - and his 9'2 standing reach (same as Nerlens Noel) has to help. He needs to see a strength and conditioning coach and perhaps a nutrionist - considering his 14.5% body fat. But that high body fat % might indicate there's more potential improvement.

I don't have all the combine stuff entered yet, but YODA doesn't seem to like Kelly all that much. He has a lower overall rating than Muhammad. He can shoot it, but I was really surprised to see how little he rebounds.

I read some statistical analysis by a Duke blogger showing Kelly being on the court dramatically improved Duke's defensive stats, but you're correct - he has to convince someone he can rebound better to make it in the NBA. Also, his jump shot form seemed to fall apart in their last few games. Still, I figure that's a temporary glitch. My gut (big but not at Jerry Krause's level) tells me he'll get his chance in the NBA if he gets his body into shape (less like Jerry Krause).

[hands11]

Just curious with all the shabazz talk, what do you think about Bullock as a shabazz SF alternative later in the draft?

To me he looks like a good fit for us. Maybe take a big with our top pick, and Bullock at 37, or maybe try to move up from 37 for him if needed?

I think Bullock could be a good fit for the Wizards, especially if they can get him in the 2nd round. I'd prefer him to Muhammad. I think Bullock has a good chance to be a better pro than Muhammad.

Real nice form on the jumper. Actually looked somewhat similar in form to KD.

But does he really do enough different then Webster that we would use a pick on him. Not so sure.

The team needs shooters but I think at guard and sf, they need to have great handles.

But its going to be hard to draft a future center and a SG that can shoot and has handles if all we have is a top 10 and later 2nd picks. Something more is going to need to happen. Consolidation of one of Kevin, Singleton, Ves or FA. Something. I still haven't heard anything from management that says they want to add all these picks. I'm pretty sure they could use two of them. The 3rd, its not so clear.

Id rather go with that SG or center and then use the 2nd on a S4. Then find what you didn't get outside the draft or down the road.

If all we are looking for is another pure shooter and willing defender/rebounder, you could do worse then Bullock. Seems like a good fit if that is what you want.

[hands11]

It makes good sense to use our early 2nd on another guard. I doubt Shane Larkin lasts, but Wolters, Eric Green or the real Pierre will still be there. Bennett and a serviceable backup guard would be a nice get. I'd like Ryan Kelly as well but doubt we use the second #2.

Looks like that might stick

TRP

As for Ryan Kelly. Did you catch his body fat index ? Dude needs to get a dietician.
I thought he would be a candidate for S4, but not if he is going to be so lazy he can't get in shape.

As for who they get in the 2nd, there are so many role players in this draft. Just depends on what they want.

There are shooters, rebounders, S4s, some project athletic types. I actually really like this draft for its depth. And there will be a few studs that come out of it closer to the top.

[sfam]

Larkin with be perfect with the 2nd

Larkin of the 44" verticle leap is not going to be available when we pick. I'm guessing he goes mid 20s.

[sfam]

It makes good sense to use our early 2nd on another guard. I doubt Shane Larkin lasts, but Wolters, Eric Green or the real Pierre will still be there. Bennett and a serviceable backup guard would be a nice get. I'd like Ryan Kelly as well but doubt we use the second #2.

Looks like that might stick

TRP

As for Ryan Kelly. Did you catch his body fat index ? Dude needs to get a dietician.
I thought he would be a candidate for S4, but not if he is going to be so lazy he can't get in shape.

As for who is get in the 2nd, there are so many role players in this draft. Just depends on what they want.

There are shooters, rebounders, S4s, some project athletic types. I actually really like this draft for its depth. And there will be a few studs that come out of it closer to the top.

Taking Kelly with our late 2nd makes sense. His body fat will drop his value, but if he gets his weight together, he might be a decent stretch 4 off the bench in a few years.

[stevemcqueen1]

You're vastly overrating Harden's ball handling ability when he came out of college. It was a universally noted weakness. And he was totally left hand dominant. It wasn't until his third season in the NBA he demonstrated that elite creative ability. And you're underrating Muhammad's ability to score off the bounce. His offhand is clearly weak, but he's actually pretty creative with his dominant hand and does a nice job getting into the paint and scoring over multiple defenders, particularly with that awesome floater game. He's an off the ball player by nature, but he does put the ball on the floor and score.

You are completely wrong. There was never any question about Harden's ball-handling. He had advanced ball-skills college. His skill set is leagues beyond anything Bazz showed. All the questions revolved around whether he was athletic enough to utilize his ball skills to create shots. Harden has answered those questions with flying colors.

Bazz is ISO heavy, high volume jump shooter. He doesn't create a lick for others. He's another two dribble guy, take more than two and he's probably in trouble. He's like an older version of Caron Butler. Jab step, hesitation, jab step, hesitation, shoot. If he puts up 20 shots, he might give you 19 pts. That's the type of career I expect him to have.

Meh, I'm not trying to win an argument with you, you can go back and read his scouting reports and they will mention ball handling as one of his weaknesses. Most people questioned his ability to get to the rim and had concerns about his shooting off the dribble, something he had struggled with in college.

Harden was a polarizing player like Shabazz, up until his breakout season in year three with OKC. I think you're using hindsight to gloss over his perceived weaknesses when he was a prospect.

Harden and Bazz have very different mentalities. That's been acknowledged by everyone making the comparison. Harden is a far less selfish player, much better passer, more of a true perimeter player. But there are also a ton of similarities between them too that you aren't acknowledging. The motor, the strength for the position, the rebounding and nose for the ball, the shaky jump shooting, the effectiveness posting up and scoring in the paint, the excellent scoring in transition, the level of good but not great athleticism, the left handed ISO creativity, the knack for getting to the FT line and scoring a high points per shot despite having a streaky jumper, the fact that they have almost identical bodies.

That's a ton of very specific skills and attributes they have in common. Defining prospects by making NBA player comparisons is tricky and never clean. But I think you're ignoring all of the similarities between Bazz and Harden because you've identified a few important differences, don't like Shabazz, do like Harden, and want to say they are completely different so you can keep an unproblematic black and white negative opinion of Shabazz.

[nate33]

stevemcqueen, I can't let you get away with this. Harden averaged 4.2 assists per game as a sophomore in college, just 0.6 fewer than their freakin' point guard. Stating that Harden had suspect handles is simply false. You don't become the primary ball handler and nearly outpace your PG in assists unless you have good handles. The guy ranked second in his entire conference in assist percentage for goodness sake.

[pancakes3]

Again, for Harden the issues were athleticism, defense, and ability to play 2guard in the NBA. If he wasn't able to play 2guard, the question was if he was able to play combo/point and if his handles were enough for that. The guy got to the rim 6-7 times a game in college. If anyone was questioning his ability to get to the rim, it was his athleticism, not his handles. He was kind of tubby in college. Baron Davis-esque figure. He lost a lot of weight while at OKC.

[stevemcqueen1]

stevemcqueen, I can't let you get away with this. Harden averaged 4.2 assists per game as a sophomore in college, just 0.6 fewer than their freakin' point guard. Stating that Harden had suspect handles is simply false. You don't become the primary ball handler and nearly outpace your PG in assists unless you have good handles. The guy ranked second in his entire conference in assist percentage for goodness sake.

Never said he wasn't a good passer, I'm pretty sure everyone listed his passing and playmaking ability as a strength. Why did so many people list his ball handling as a weakness? Why was the consensus on him at the time that he couldn't shoot off the dribble and couldn't drive right?

I'm not trying to "get away" with anything. I'm stating what the draftnik community thought about him at the time.

[stevemcqueen1]

Again, for Harden the issues were athleticism, defense, and ability to play 2guard in the NBA. If he wasn't able to play 2guard, the question was if he was able to play combo/point and if his handles were enough for that. The guy got to the rim 6-7 times a game in college. If anyone was questioning his ability to get to the rim, it was his athleticism, not his handles. He was kind of tubby in college. Baron Davis-esque figure. He lost a lot of weight while at OKC.

I understand that part. And I agree that athleticism was probably the biggest concern people had with him at the time. I think his two tourney games also raised questions about his passivity and ability to be "the guy" for a team, which was something that hung with him until he tore it up in Houston this year.

But lack of athleticism limiting his ability to get to the rim is independent from the other two concerns with his ball handling from 2009--inability to shoot off the dribble and weakness driving right. Those two things were knocks that a lot of people had on him and show that his ball handling was an apparent weakness. Were people unfair in their criticism of his handles at the time? Probably. Has he significantly improved them since he was in college? Probably. Are their still some weaknesses with his handles today? Probably.

[AFM]

From DraftExpress 2008:

January 15, 2008
Arizona State’s excellent start to their Pac-10 schedule (3-0 in conference, 13-2 overall) combined with the terrific season their freshman wing player is having warrants another look at James Harden—one of the nicer stories from this terrific class. He’s the youngest player in the Pac-10, but has regardless jumped out as the early favorite for freshman of the year honors (although it’s certainly neck and neck with Jerryd Bayless and Kevin Love), in addition to All-Conference team consideration.

Harden has become Arizona State’s go-to guy already, the player they look to late in games and early in possessions to give them some serious scoring punch from the perimeter. Harden is a long-armed freshman with an outstanding frame, but just average athleticism for an NBA shooting guard prospect—although his strength, coordination and timing help make up for that.

Not the greatest ball-handler in the world, nor super explosive with his first step, Herb Sendek has regardless found ways to get the ball in Harden’s hands in stride to take advantage of his terrific scoring instincts. They like to bring him off a handoff or short cut coming off a curl to allow him to catch the ball and go straight to the basket with his left hand (his natural hand), where he can either take contact and get to the free throw line or finish craftily around the rim. Harden is a terrific fit for Sendek’s offense since he’s extremely intelligent and is very adept at moving off the ball for backdoor and flex cuts.

Harden is a mature player with great poise and excellent scoring instincts, showing great understanding of angles and terrific fundamentals to get the job done. He possesses excellent timing and really sees the floor well, reading defenses and knowing how to exploit openings as soon as they materialize. He likes to use jab-steps and shot-fakes on the perimeter and has plenty of counters he can go to. Even though he favors his left hand, he’s not afraid to go to his right hand if he feels like the defense is overplaying his stronger hand. He doesn’t blow players away with his first step, but he’s very adept at getting his man off balance and then keeping them at bay riding them on his hip all the way to the basket for a crafty finish.

Making Harden even more dangerous is the fact that he’s also a very effective shooter from the perimeter, hitting a terrific 45% of his 3-point attempts on the year. He doesn’t take a ton of them, but hits the ones he tries at a good rate and is excellent with his feet set, even showing range out to the NBA 3-point line if left open. Something that he can probably still add to his game is an effective pull-up jumper he can utilize from mid-range. Having a weapon like that at his disposal would make him a very complete scorer, and really could take his offensive game to the next level in his sophomore season.

Defensively, Harden is not the easiest player to evaluate since Arizona State spends a considerable amount of time in a matchup zone. He does seem to have a good understanding on this end of the floor though, looking pretty intense, with good fundamentals, and a nice wingspan, and doing a solid job of keeping his man in front of him, although his lateral quickness does not look outstanding.

As far as his NBA prospects go, even though there is clearly a lot to like here, it feels a bit early to definitively evaluate his NBA potential at this point. Not being a prototypical athlete at the shooting guard position (think Martell Webster), nor a superb shot-creator, there are some question marks regarding how his scoring prowess will carry over to the next level. The incredibly tough Pac-10 slate should teach us a lot from here until the end of the season. We must keep in mind that he’s only a freshman, though, and that he still seems to be finding a way to get the job done, even with his obvious limitations. That’s pretty impressive regardless of how you look at it, so you can be sure that this is a prospect we’ll be following closely from here on out.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2TspYIcqa
http://www.draftexpress.com