2013 NBA Draft Lottery Thread

Post #1 » by **Rafael122** » Tue May 21, 2013 1:13 pm

Up before Ji decides to jinx us for a third year in a row.

Who do you predict will win the lottery? My money is on Sacramento.

Deeptu McPullup · Post #2 » by **Deeptu McPullup** » Tue May 21, 2013 1:21 pm

If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits eighty-eight miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious ****.

AFM · Post #3 » by **AFM** » Tue May 21, 2013 1:33 pm

Anyone else feel we are picking 3rd?

GhostsOfGil · Post #4 » by **GhostsOfGil** » Tue May 21, 2013 1:46 pm

AFM wrote:Anyone else feel we are picking 3rd?

Na, you got it all wrong...

So far, I've only ran the machine twice. The first time we got the #1. The second we got the #2.

AFM · Post #5 » by **AFM** » Tue May 21, 2013 1:51 pm

Someone update the OP

Don't worry guys. We have an 0.1% chance of dropping to 11. Never say never!!

Post #6 » by **Rafael122** » Tue May 21, 2013 1:54 pm

If we get top 3, I will be happy. Most likely Porter at that spot.

So I just saw that graph, basically we have no shot at 4th or 5th? Meaning it's either the 8th/9th spot or a top 3 pick. Jeez...

FAH1223 · Post #7 » by **FAH1223** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:05 pm

Rafael122 wrote:Up before Ji decides to jinx us for a third year in a row.

Who do you predict will win the lottery? My money is on Sacramento.

I know right. Just cause of that bounce in 2010.. he thinks he can always start the lotto thread. :lol:

Nivek · Post #8 » by **Nivek** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:06 pm

Rafael122 wrote:If we get top 3, I will be happy. Most likely Porter at that spot.

So I just saw that graph, basically we have no shot at 4th or 5th? Meaning it's either the 8th/9th spot or a top 3 pick. Jeez...

The lottery is only for the top 3 picks. After that, draft order is determined by record -- worst team not drawn for the top 3 gets the 4th pick, next worst gets the 5th pick, and so on. The Wizards being 8th in lottery odds will either pick in the top 3, or 8th or worse.

Floater · Post #9 » by **Floater** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:21 pm

We shall pick 9th

Post #10 » by **Zonkerbl** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:21 pm

However, the odds of the worst three moving down are higher than the odds of some else moving up.

To be precise, the probability that the worst three teams get the top three picks is .605*.56*.507=.17

So the chance of some non-three-worst team getting one of the top three picks is a whopping 83%!

Put differently, the chances that one of the three worst teams getting knocked out of the top three picks is 83%!

Man, you really do not want to be one of the third worst teams. What an enormous penalty.

fishercob · Post #11 » by **fishercob** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:23 pm

I dreamt we won the lotto. Milwaukee was in love with Mclemore, so we traded #1 for Ilyasova, 17 and their 14 first, top-1 protected. I need professional help.

GhostsOfGil · Post #12 » by **GhostsOfGil** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:26 pm

fishercob wrote:I dreamt we won the lotto. Milwaukee was in love with Mclemore, so we traded #1 for Ilyasova, 17 and their 14 first, top-1 protected. I need professional help.

Dream scenario indeed.

Post #13 » by **Zonkerbl** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:27 pm

We have a 3.5% chance of getting the top pick, 4.1% chance of getting the 2nd, and a 4.8% chance of getting the 3rd. Our probability of not getting any of the top three is (1-3.5%)*(1-4.1%)*(1-4.8%) = 88.1%, so our chances of getting one of the top three is 1-88.1% = 11.9%.

Yeesh, Orlando only has a 51.6% chance of getting one of the top three picks. That sucks.

BruceO · Post #14 » by **BruceO** » Tue May 21, 2013 2:35 pm

either way we getting a center lol, noel is supposedly the top one but with his weight and breaking his leg at 200 pds i wonder what happens when he is at the 250 most dominant centers are at. Len and adams might have due to size better potential. Throw in gobbert as well

Post #15 » by **LyricalRico** » Tue May 21, 2013 3:08 pm

Floater wrote:We shall pick 9th

I think somebody from the bottom half moves up into the top 3. Conspiracy theory time!

Candidates to move down:

Orlando - already gotten top pick multiple times, only been bad for a year
Charlotte - completely mismanaged by MJ
Cleveland - Stern already gave them LeBron and Irving

Candidates to move up:

Philly - payment for taking a chance on Bynum help Howard join Kobe/Nash in LA
Portland - consolation prize for getting nothing from Oden
Minny - the NBA needs guys like Love/Rubio in the playoffs and relevant
Sacto - part of the deal so they wouldn't move to Seattle (probably too obvious, though)

If the NBA was smart, they'd move Dallas up to keep Dirk competitive in the twilight of his career, but Stern hates Cuban so no way he helps him during his final draft. My guess is the Wolves move into the top 3, and Stern gives MJ a parting gift of the top pick.

1. Charlotte
2. Cleveland
3. Minnesota
4. Orlando
...
9. Washington

closg00 · Post #16 » by **closg00** » Tue May 21, 2013 3:34 pm

We are Wizards, WE WILL pick 9th or worse. Let's see what Stern does tonight.

As someone else posted, we are taking one of the bigs, something with-which to erase the memory of Jan Vesely.

Dat2U · Post #17 » by **Dat2U** » Tue May 21, 2013 4:17 pm

I want nothing to do with the #1 pick. I'm not sure if I'd want 2nd one either.

I would not be shocked if we landed in the top 3, considering the lack of talent at the top, it would make sense that this is year we jump up in the lottery.

I wouldn't mind #8 or #9 at all. It would not bother me to lose a spot either. I don't think it makes much of a difference.

tontoz · Post #18 » by **tontoz** » Tue May 21, 2013 4:18 pm

Time to line up the Stern conspiracy theories. There should be one for each team so no matter who wins we can claim it was rigged.

go'stags · Post #19 » by **go'stags** » Tue May 21, 2013 4:28 pm

If we move down a spot, at least it will give us something to complain about. Blaming the basketball gods is about the only thing us Wizards fans have to hold on to. That might be worth more than Noel.

dobrojim · Post #20 » by **dobrojim** » Tue May 21, 2013 4:37 pm

Dat2U wrote:I want nothing to do with the #1 pick. I'm not sure if I'd want 2nd one either.

I would not be shocked if we landed in the top 3, considering the lack of talent at the top, it would make sense that this is year we jump up in the lottery.

I wouldn't mind #8 or #9 at all. It would not bother me to lose a spot either. I don't think it makes much of a difference.

totally agree on not really caring about #1, except as possible trade down as per Fish's dream scenario.

Would love to get OP. That's my dream. And I don't think it'll happen by trade.
Lots of teams ahead of us could use him the same way we could, esp CLE. Don't
see anybody giving him up for anything reasonable we might offer.

Not so sure about losing spots, probably shouldn't matter much.
That said, we lost Reggie Miller by 1 pick. And it was somewhere in the 7-9
range IIRC. Also we got Jared Jeffries 1 pick behind Caron. It could matter.
But we probably won't realize how much right away.