Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[Dat2U]

Like most, I think Grunfeld's comments betray poor thinking at best, and are stupid and counterproductive at worst.

At best, Grunfeld and the team are pre-judging a group of players based on stuff that has nothing to do with their ability to play basketball. In this case, experience. He doesn't want 3 rookies. This is the same thing as wanting "veterans" and acquiring a couple 30-year old big men. I can think of lots of times teams would want 3 rookies at the same time -- a lot depends on which rookies. If they truly believe there aren't three rookies who can help them long-term where they're going to be picking, cool. But don't go and announce that publicly. Which leads me to my "worst case"...

Which is that he has publicly devalued his team's assets. I'd much prefer that Grunfeld say something like: They look forward to the draft because it's an opportunity to add talented players to a team that's in the midst of a rebuild. And then, if you really don't want to use all the picks, make a deal using whichever picks you don't want.

Are those second round picks great assets? No. But, it's like playing Hold 'Em and getting pocket 5s. It's not a terrific hand, but if you play them right, you might still come out a winner. One sure way to NOT come out a winner would be to sigh and say, "Hard to win with pocket fives."

YODA is up to date now. Would still like to have the bench test, but gotta work with what's available. The top 10, according to YODA:

1. Oladipo
2. Zeller
3. Burke
4. Noel
5. Olynyk
6. McLemore
7. Porter
8. Bennett
9. Carter-Williams
10. Dieng

Will have much more up at the blog in the coming days.

Interesting. I'm surprised to see Carter-Willams on the list. I'd love to see who had comparable scores to the guys listed here.

[Zonkerbl]

I don't mind the lottery system much. I think it's good enough that those among the bottom six or seven teams get a much better chance at acquiring a star caliber player than a playoff team. I see no compelling reason why the absolute worst team in the league should get a significantly better chance at improving than, say, the 4th-worst team.

The lottery system rewards mediocrity, but doesn't necessarily reward flat out ineptitude. I like that.

In addition to not rewarding ineptitude (especially chronic ineptitude), I thought part of the reason for the lottery was to take away the guarantee of top pick for the team with the worst record, responding to criticisms about blatant tanking.

The tradeoff, I guess, is it makes it really hard to lift yourself out of suckitude. It greatly increases the chances that a team that finds itself one of the third worst will stay that way for a long time.

But you can also look at the lottery as having two benefits: it's a penalty for tanking, and it's also a penalty for sucking.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

it doesn't take much to be better then Vesely though. You could prolly bring in a UFA and have a better basketball player then vesely tbh. If EG can, he should try to combine the two 2nds and move up as far as he can. I can't think of a player past the top 40 that would give meaningful minutes on a contender.

I'm also not so irate that they would dismiss 2nd rounders cause I know they're going to draft trash anyways. Just less trash to compile. :/

Please remember this comment this time next season.

Colton Iverson, Zeke Marshall, Andre Roberson, DJ Stephens, Juvonte Reddic, Ray McCallum, Solomon Hill, Brandon Paul, Micheal Snaer, Isaiah Canaan, Carrick Felix, Lorenzo Brown

Those are a few names off the top of my head of players who can contribute to contending teams even if drafted after #40. Most won't solely because of guaranteed roster spots and due to GMs like Ernie, who stock their teams with nondescript players.

Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, Landry Fields, Lance Stephenson, Chandler Parsons, Kyle Singler, Isaiah Thomas, Lavoy Allen, DeAndre Liggins, E'Twuan Moore were all second round picks.

From 2009 all these players went round two: Sam Young, Jodie Meeks, DeJuan Blair, Jetf Pendergraph, AJ Price, Jonas Jerebko, Patrick Beverly, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger, Danny Green

Price was the 52nd pick!

These players were not drafted: Jeremy Lin, Wesley Matthews, Alonzo Gee,

When I hear statements by Grunfeld and others that say there are only a handful of good players I disagree STRONGLY.

CCJ, that is only a handful of good players. Most of the guys you named are roster filler whose main career achievement is just hanging on to an NBA roster spot and maybe getting 10-15 minutes a game for a season or two. Guys like Jeff Pendergraph aren't good or particularly valuable.

And of the guys you named, these are the only ones who are still with the team that drafted them:

- Mario Chalmers
- DeAndre Jordan
- Lance Stephenson
- Chandler Parsons
- LaVoy Allen
- Isaiah Thomas
- Kyle Singler
- Jonas Jerebko
- DeJuan Blair

Blair barely plays now. Tough to use him as the poster boy for 2nd round pick value nowadays. Jerebko and Singler are backups on a terrible team. Ditto for LaVoy Allen. These are replacement level players. Parsons, Jordan, Stephenson, and Chalmers are the only impressive ones as starters for playoff teams.

Nevertheless, that's just 9 players you've mentioned who caught on with the team that drafted them. The earliest being from the 2008 draft. Well there have been 150 second round picks since 2008. So you're looking at what, a 6% chance of finding someone worth keeping long term in the second round?

Omer Asik, E'Twaun Moore, DeAndre Liggins, Landry Fields, Patrick Beverley, Sam Young, Jodie Meeks, Jeff Pendergraph, AJ Price, Danny Green, Chase Budinger, and Marcus Thornton were all traded, cut, or allowed to walk and thus brought minimal return to the teams that spent the pick on them. Jeremy Lin and Alonzo Gee have been cut or changed teams four times each before catching on with their current team--fifth time's the charm. Even Wesley Matthews got cut from the Jazz before he caught on in Portland.

Meaningful success stories with second rounders and UDFAs are few and far between. If a second rounder actually catches on somewhere, it's almost always with some other team further down the road after almost all of his peers have whittled away.

It's pretty absurd to pan EG for not being able to find great players in the second round when it's true for every team in the league. For the life of me I will never understand why Wizards fans get so freaked out about second round picks and make mountains out of molehills over them. They've got these unrealistic expectations of nailing every pick out of the park even though the second round is a total crapshoot. They expect to find a star with every first rounder and a meaningful role player with every second.

And it remains true that no NBA team can develop more than a small handful of young players at the same time. Adding three rookies to develop makes zero sense when we're already loaded with young under developed projects that we can't figure out how to work in and develop behind better veteran players. And every player's development is lower priority than Wall's and Beal's, so they aren't stealing minutes and opportunities from them. Add in the lotto pick this year (hopefully). When are these second round rookies supposed to see the floor? Team building and roster/rotation management is zero sum. A yes to one guy at one spot is a no to everyone else.

Quantify good. If you look at PER and WS/48 those would serve as reference points. If you look at on/off data over time on 82games or other sites, those could help.

I at least say different names and open myself up to subjective criticisms, but as far as I can tell that's all most have to say against me. I have reasons and unlike Nivek, I am not equipped to do it with spreadsheets. Mighty funny his names are very similar. No, actually I am a numbers guy for the most part.

The guys you are calling not good made rosters and displaced others. Many had to survive a coaching change or getting waived before playing elsewhere.

Pendergraph is PLAYING for the Pacers. More minutes than Tyler Hansbrough, lately. The fact that teams cut a player and others start the player reminds me of Ben Wallace on Washington. He was TERRIFIC at rebounding and blocking shots all along. The Wizards and the Magic messed up big time.

I think your post, stevemcqueen, shows you value roster moves and transactions more than actual production. You try to discredit my thoughts with IMO a real weak argument.

Quantify good or bad and go back to the players I listed.

[TGW]

DraftExpress wrote:

DraftExpress: Kelly Olynyk clearly the most skilled big man here. Looks like a guard with his handle and jumper. Measured just 6-10 wingspan vs 7-0 height

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2Tx9qOPpa
http://www.draftexpress.com

That's why I view Olynyk highly. He can step in on day one and be in the rotation.

[Nivek]

A sampling of guys with same overall score (NOT similarity scores):

Oladipo -- Kidd (SO), Shaq (FR), Ewing (FR), Irving (FR), Vince Carter (JR), Webber (FR), Battier (SR)

Zeller -- Chris Paul (SO), Steph Curry (SO), Booker (JR), Iverson (SO), Okafor (JR), Wall (FR)

Burke, Noel and Olynyk (about the same overall score) -- Hibbert (JR), Booker (FR), Grant Hill (SR), Brandon Roy (SR), Beal (FR), Thaddeus Young (FR), Aldridge (SO), Faried (SR)

McLemore, Porter and Bennett (about the same overall score) -- Caron Butler (SO), MKG (FR), Ty Lawson (FR), Ed Davis (SO), Paul Pierce (JR), Stromile Swift (SO), Faried (SO), Richard Hamilton (SO)

Carter-Williams and Dieng (about the same overall score) -- Chase Budinger (FR), Booker (SO), Jamison (FR), Sullinger (SO), Jonny Flynn (FR), Terrence Jones (FR & SO), Kaman (JR), Rondo (SO)

Carter-Williams surprises me too. He's inefficient -- high turnovers and bad shooting from everywhere. He actually rated better as a freshman. Good size and he jumps well, but his 2pt% is bad. How is he ranking top 10? Good team against a tough schedule. Just a sophomore so there's still room to grow. Good rebounding, assists, steals and block numbers. Some of the names that show up in my similarity score thing are interesting -- Mike Conley, Ron Artest, Russell Westbrook, Grant Hill.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Like most, I think Grunfeld's comments betray poor thinking at best, and are stupid and counterproductive at worst.

At best, Grunfeld and the team are pre-judging a group of players based on stuff that has nothing to do with their ability to play basketball. In this case, experience. He doesn't want 3 rookies. This is the same thing as wanting "veterans" and acquiring a couple 30-year old big men. I can think of lots of times teams would want 3 rookies at the same time -- a lot depends on which rookies. If they truly believe there aren't three rookies who can help them long-term where they're going to be picking, cool. But don't go and announce that publicly. Which leads me to my "worst case"...

Which is that he has publicly devalued his team's assets. I'd much prefer that Grunfeld say something like: They look forward to the draft because it's an opportunity to add talented players to a team that's in the midst of a rebuild. And then, if you really don't want to use all the picks, make a deal using whichever picks you don't want.

Are those second round picks great assets? No. But, it's like playing Hold 'Em and getting pocket 5s. It's not a terrific hand, but if you play them right, you might still come out a winner. One sure way to NOT come out a winner would be to sigh and say, "Hard to win with pocket fives."

YODA is up to date now. Would still like to have the bench test, but gotta work with what's available. The top 10, according to YODA:

1. Oladipo
2. Zeller
3. Burke
4. Noel
5. Olynyk
6. McLemore
7. Porter
8. Bennett
9. Carter-Williams
10. Dieng

Will have much more up at the blog in the coming days.

Interesting. I'm surprised to see Carter-Willams on the list. I'd love to see who had comparable scores to the guys listed here.

Indiana's coaching sure misfired in March. Zeller and Oladipo underachieved according to YODA.

I am not surprised Oladipo is first.

I think Burke and MCW are too high.

This makes me hope Olynyk is the pick, because it backs what I've thought. At 8 he's a no-brainer if Porter is off the board. Where it gets dicey: Zeller or Olynyk?

[nuposse04]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/336891105373200384[/tweet]

take it for fwiw, should be some shakeup after tonight.

[dobrojim]

so I take it that KB would not hesitate and take Dipo with OP
on the board in the unlikely scenario that we would have that
choice?

Have to say I do like what little I saw of Dipo.

So, given that you (KB) and most here feel we're not in a position
to draft for position, is YODA's rankings the same as you would
have our draft board? Player quality over fit?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm confident there are 2nd rd picks & undrafted free agents that are capable of outperforming Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin, Temple, Martin & Collins. That's 40% of our roster last year, lol. We've got exactly 3 perimeter guys (Wall, Beal & Ariza) currently signed on the roster. The last thing we need to worry about is classification at this stage and simply worry about finding the best available talent. Typical Ernieisms.

Minus the above, here's the likely opening day depth chart:
Wall/Price
Beal
Webster/Ariza
Nene/Booker
Okafor

Not great at this point, but with the strides made by Wall and Beal, not horrible either.

But that's it. As Nivek and others have pointed out, the team needs help at every position, backups at both guards or a combo guard who can respectably start, wing shooting or possibly the SF of the future, a backup center/center of the future, and more big depth in case Nene is injured. This team has no depth, and EG and Leonsis need to stop acting like those other players constitute depth. A bunch of rookies are potentially depth. Probably not, but it's time to move on and try other options. Even if any of those other players could be traded for anything of value, EG is probably not the person to get that done. We're probably stuck with them because we're stuck with him.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq6hVs6K5mc[/youtube]

The Thunder probably would like Seraphin way more than Perkins, Thabeet, or Collison. I could see Chris Singleton contributing on the Grizzlies and even more on a team that needs defense like the Houston Rockets. Vesely .... is like most of the Timberwolves players, European. . No, teams that would simply allow him to be an energy guy who occasionally dunks are Boston, Chicago, Denver. There are teams who would swap picks or players for each of the Wizards deep bench subs.

The smartest thing to do would be to try and draft studs. During next season, package Okafor and/or Ariza's expiring deals along with the bench players above to teams that are desperate to win now, or teams that want to discard a disgruntled player.

By all means use the draft to acquire superior talent and thus increase leverage and future trades.

[Ruzious]

What's scary about Olynyk's situation? His breakout this year has been well discussed. http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... aga31.html

I think Zeller has excellent touch & feel around the rim, but skill wise, I'd give Olynyk a significant advantage there. Zeller's standing reach is 2 inches shorter and defensively I suspect both will have their share of issues. Zeller is more athletic than Olynyk and runs the court better but that's not enough for me to pick Zeller.

I would take Oladipo in a heartbeat if he slips.

Imo, it's silly to focus on that 2 inch difference when there's about a 10 inch difference going the other way when they jump - not to mention Olynyk's tiny wingspan. And as far as skill, I doubt Olynyk would have any advantage when Zeller is Olyy's age. Zeller is the far better prospect. At best, Oyy has a L8ner type career. Skills matter, but so do physical limitations - and his will limit him from being a winning type player in the NBA.

[dobrojim]

L8ner was a marginal allstar.
If we could draft a player of that level of production, I would
be pretty happy.

How much better do you figure Zeller is likely to be?

[montestewart]

But you can also look at the lottery as having two benefits: it's a penalty for tanking, and it's also a penalty for sucking.

The Wizards have a built in incentive to not merely suck and rely on the lottery to save them. For every OKC (a series of high draft picks creating a contender), there seems to be a Portland, where Oden and Roy had career altering injuries. Regardless, both of those teams seem to be blessed with more dynamic and progressive leadership.

The Clippers, on the other hand, have had many, many high draft picks over the last 30 years, some of whom were pretty good players, but their best moves usually seemed to be getting high picks. If the picks worked out, there was the team, with perhaps an overpriced veteran acquired through trade or free agency, along with various retreads and castoffs. Every once in a while, they contended for a late playoff seed. Prior to the recent Paul/Griffin-led playoff team, the Clippers made the playoffs only four times in thirty-three years since moving from Buffalo.

By comparison, the Bullets/Wizards teams over the last 30 years have been mostly just mediocre. The Wizards' record over the last five years, however, looks much more like the Clippers' record over their long span of ineptitude, and despite that horrible record, they somehow have an owner who periodically finds reason to gloat in his messages to the public and press. That's not exactly filling me with confidence.

[TGW]

No offense to Brad Beal, but I want this guy as our starting two. Sheesh...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA[/youtube]

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't have all the combine stuff entered yet, but YODA doesn't seem to like Kelly all that much. He has a lower overall rating than Muhammad. He can shoot it, but I was really surprised to see how little he rebounds.

Who's a better prospect between Ryan Kelly and Kenny Kadji?

Kadji's 45 or 46 years old (j/k--he's 24 already and Kelly is 22), but he strikes me as a better basketball player than Kelly. Kadji rebounds better, blocks more shots, can hit the three almost as well, and is a much better athlete at about the same size as Kelly.

Kelly, and it's not close. Kelly rates as a 2nd round pick in YODA. Kadji is WAY down the list -- solidly in "don't draft" territory. Looking at his numbers, I don't see much of a reason to think Kadji will be an NBA contributor. He's a decent size and a good leaper, but not an impressive rebounder, not a good 2pt%, not a good FT%. Plus, he's already 25 years old.

I think Kelly is far superior at playing mistake-free ball. As a Wizard he will be open a lot playing with Wall. In round two, with the later pick Kelly is a great choice.

Kadji is older but the main concern is his injury history. I believe when healthy he's at least capable of being a contributor to a roster. That said, I would not draft him over players like Marshall, Stephens, Iverson, Reddic, Hill, or Felix.

I think Kelly is a poor man's Steve Novak. I think Kadji, (forgive me YODA), is a better player overall than Kelly. Kadji is a poor man's Robert Horry. He doesn't have to be open and he's a decent athlete. I think Taj Gibson was 24 or 25 prior to the draft. If upside is not a consideration age isn't a big deal. Look at Prigioni as a rookie.

Nivek, I can see drafting Kelly and not Kadji, but IMO Kadji is a better overall player.

[Nivek]

A draft entry is up at the blog.

Basically everyone with a potential first round grade.

Broad first look. Will be drilling down deeper as the draft gets closer.

[nuposse04]

No offense to Brad Beal, but I want this guy as our starting two. Sheesh...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA[/youtube]

If we didn't have Beal I wouldn't have minded Oladipo, but if you gave me the choice between the two I'd take Beal, I still think Beal's potential is considerably greater, I almost forgot that Oladpio is already 21. Oddly enough he reminds of Crawford with a brain and superior athleticism. Emphasis on the brain.

[Nivek]

Who's a better prospect between Ryan Kelly and Kenny Kadji?

Kadji's 45 or 46 years old (j/k--he's 24 already and Kelly is 22), but he strikes me as a better basketball player than Kelly. Kadji rebounds better, blocks more shots, can hit the three almost as well, and is a much better athlete at about the same size as Kelly.

Kelly, and it's not close. Kelly rates as a 2nd round pick in YODA. Kadji is WAY down the list -- solidly in "don't draft" territory. Looking at his numbers, I don't see much of a reason to think Kadji will be an NBA contributor. He's a decent size and a good leaper, but not an impressive rebounder, not a good 2pt%, not a good FT%. Plus, he's already 25 years old.

I think Kelly is far superior at playing mistake-free ball. As a Wizard he will be open a lot playing with Wall. In round two, with the later pick Kelly is a great choice.

Kadji is older but the main concern is his injury history. I believe when healthy he's at least capable of being a contributor to a roster. That said, I would not draft him over players like Marshall, Stephens, Iverson, Reddic, Hill, or Felix.

I think Kelly is a poor man's Steve Novak. I think Kadji, (forgive me YODA), is a better player overall than Kelly. Kadji is a poor man's Robert Horry. He doesn't have to be open and he's a decent athlete. I think Taj Gibson was 24 or 25 prior to the draft. If upside is not a consideration age isn't a big deal. Look at Prigioni as a rookie.

Nivek, I can see drafting Kelly and not Kadji, but IMO Kadji is a better overall player.

Just to be clear, I don't really see either guy being great shakes as a pro. I think Kelly has a better chance than Kadji, who does not impress me at all.

[Ruzious]

L8ner was a marginal allstar.
If we could draft a player of that level of production, I would
be pretty happy.

How much better do you figure Zeller is likely to be?

L8ner was only good enough to lose with. His stats defined the term "empty stats".

How much better? The difference is you can win building with Zeller, and you can keep shooting for mediocrity with Olyy - while enjoying his numbers and rationalizing why you keep losing.

[dobrojim]

I admit I don't know enough to have what I would consider
a well informed opinion on Oly vs Zeller. But I'm
guessing the difference may be marginal. Oly's
more ready now, Zeller may have the higher ceiling.
Oly's skillset may be a better fit for us.

my bottom line is either would be worth being happy about.
Until the other guy starts outperforming him.

Neither is going to be expected to carry us.
That'll be up to Wall.

[sfam]

Indiana's coaching sure misfired in March. Zeller and Oladipo underachieved according to YODA.

I am not surprised Oladipo is first.

I think Burke and MCW are too high.

This makes me hope Olynyk is the pick, because it backs what I've thought. At 8 he's a no-brainer if Porter is off the board. Where it gets dicey: Zeller or Olynyk?

Given his performance and measurements at the combine, I really doubt Zeller lasts past 5 or 6. If he's there at #8, unless Bennett is still available, I'd be thrilled with him. I think Zeller becomes our starting 4 in a year or two, and becomes a key part of our success over the next 5-7 years or so. Zeller is more athletic than Olynyk, and allows us to do more things, especially in up-tempo situations. Zeller claims he has a decent midrange, which he'll have to show in workouts.