Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[pancakes3]

Zeller claims he has a decent midrange, which he'll have to show in workouts.

He shoots 76% from the line so it's not a stretch for him to claim range on his jumper.

Here's an incredibly optimistic comparison that I don't think anyone's made yet but imo Zeller could compare favorably to Pau Gasol. I think just by the eye test you can see that Gasol's got better length but offensively the two can be fairly comparable.

[nate33]

A draft entry is up at the blog.

Basically everyone with a potential first round grade.

Broad first look. Will be drilling down deeper as the draft gets closer.

I would change your examples, Nivek. It makes it look like that even Tier 5 is chock full of elite, all star players with HOF potential. It seems like you picked the best examples in each tier rather than a typical example. After reading that, I feel like I'll get the next Tim Duncan when I draft Gorgui Dieng with the #12 pick.

[Dark Faze]

What's scary about Olynyk's situation? His breakout this year has been well discussed. http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... aga31.html

I think Zeller has excellent touch & feel around the rim, but skill wise, I'd give Olynyk a significant advantage there. Zeller's standing reach is 2 inches shorter and defensively I suspect both will have their share of issues. Zeller is more athletic than Olynyk and runs the court better but that's not enough for me to pick Zeller.

I would take Oladipo in a heartbeat if he slips.

Imo, it's silly to focus on that 2 inch difference when there's about a 10 inch difference going the other way when they jump - not to mention Olynyk's tiny wingspan. And as far as skill, I doubt Olynyk would have any advantage when Zeller is Olyy's age. Zeller is the far better prospect. At best, Oyy has a L8ner type career. Skills matter, but so do physical limitations - and his will limit him from being a winning type player in the NBA.

Lol why would you argue about wing span with a 7 footer?

I'm liking Zeller more and more as a prospect, but wing span isn't an issue for either of these guys right now.

[Ruzious]

I admit I don't know enough to have what I would consider
a well informed opinion on Oly vs Zeller. But I'm
guessing the difference may be marginal. Oly's
more ready now, Zeller may have the higher ceiling.
Oly's skillset may be a better fit for us.

my bottom line is either would be worth being happy about.
Until the other guy starts outperforming him.

Neither is going to be expected to carry us.
That'll be up to Wall.

Wall isn't Lebron. He can't carry a team with high aspirations. Hopefully, the goal is to build a championship contender - not a .500 team. Would you be happy if the goal of the team every year is to fight for the last playoff spot? If you are - then yes, maybe Wall can carry us. If you're not, he needs a lot of help.

[Ruzious]

What's scary about Olynyk's situation? His breakout this year has been well discussed. http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... aga31.html

I think Zeller has excellent touch & feel around the rim, but skill wise, I'd give Olynyk a significant advantage there. Zeller's standing reach is 2 inches shorter and defensively I suspect both will have their share of issues. Zeller is more athletic than Olynyk and runs the court better but that's not enough for me to pick Zeller.

I would take Oladipo in a heartbeat if he slips.

Imo, it's silly to focus on that 2 inch difference when there's about a 10 inch difference going the other way when they jump - not to mention Olynyk's tiny wingspan. And as far as skill, I doubt Olynyk would have any advantage when Zeller is Olyy's age. Zeller is the far better prospect. At best, Oyy has a L8ner type career. Skills matter, but so do physical limitations - and his will limit him from being a winning type player in the NBA.

Lol why would you argue about wing span with a 7 footer?

I'm liking Zeller more and more as a prospect, but wing span isn't an issue for either of these guys right now.

I didn't argue about wingspan. I pointed it out - in 6 words - as an aside.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The guy I don't like who I am most likely to be wrong about: Adams

I admit it . I am hating on the guy despite the numbers and his youth. If YODA likes Adams as much as Olynyk, at three years younger--I could be wrong. Call me biased on him, Bennett, and Michael Carter-Williams.

[Nivek]

A draft entry is up at the blog.

Basically everyone with a potential first round grade.

Broad first look. Will be drilling down deeper as the draft gets closer.

I would change your examples, Nivek. It makes it look like that even Tier 5 is chock full of elite, all star players with HOF potential. It seems like you picked the best examples in each tier rather than a typical example. After reading that, I feel like I'll get the next Tim Duncan when I draft Gorgui Dieng with the #12 pick.

That was Duncan as a freshman, of course. Hmm -- maybe I should do something like a representative from each class as the samples for each tier.

Thanks for the feedback!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Put me on record as saying I think Wolters might be a better pro than Burke. (Hopefully, this won't turn out the same as when I predicted Blake would be better than Arenas. )

[The Consiglieri]

Like most, I think Grunfeld's comments betray poor thinking at best, and are stupid and counterproductive at worst.

At best, Grunfeld and the team are pre-judging a group of players based on stuff that has nothing to do with their ability to play basketball. In this case, experience. He doesn't want 3 rookies. This is the same thing as wanting "veterans" and acquiring a couple 30-year old big men. I can think of lots of times teams would want 3 rookies at the same time -- a lot depends on which rookies. If they truly believe there aren't three rookies who can help them long-term where they're going to be picking, cool. But don't go and announce that publicly. Which leads me to my "worst case"...

Which is that he has publicly devalued his team's assets. I'd much prefer that Grunfeld say something like: They look forward to the draft because it's an opportunity to add talented players to a team that's in the midst of a rebuild. And then, if you really don't want to use all the picks, make a deal using whichever picks you don't want.

Are those second round picks great assets? No. But, it's like playing Hold 'Em and getting pocket 5s. It's not a terrific hand, but if you play them right, you might still come out a winner. One sure way to NOT come out a winner would be to sigh and say, "Hard to win with pocket fives."

YODA is up to date now. Would still like to have the bench test, but gotta work with what's available. The top 10, according to YODA:

1. Oladipo
2. Zeller
3. Burke
4. Noel
5. Olynyk
6. McLemore
7. Porter
8. Bennett
9. Carter-Williams
10. Dieng

Will have much more up at the blog in the coming days.

Will be interesting to see where Yoda misses. For now the crazy misses are Zeller at 2 (I wouldn't have him top 10), Olynyk (I wouldn't have him in the lottery), Carter Williams (really one of those, could be great, could be a flat out bust types), and Dieng, who I wouldn't consider in the top 25.

We know there are always misses and hits in the top 10 general consensus, Yoda and other metrics based analysis often catch some of those misses. Am very interested to see if some of the guys I really dont like in the top 10 actually end up being the high values I and others missed on.

My top 10 for now:
1. Noel
2. McLemore
3. Bennett
4. Oladipo
5. McCollum
6. Burke
7. Porter
8. Len
9. S. Muhammad
10. Gobert

Best Values (Players that might be had at 10 or more slots beyond where there eventual value is):
1. Tony Mitchell
2. Kelly Olynyk
3. Karasev
4. D. Saric
5. Glen Rice Jr.
6. Jeff Withey
7. Pierre Jackson
8. Adonis Thomas
9. S. Larkin
10. S. Muhammad

[Nivek]

A note on Carter-Williams. Ed Weiland, the guy whose stat research suggested Jeremy Lin should have been a first round pick (written before that draft), pointed out that the only players in his statistical record to post per 40 minute rebounds + steals + blocks as good as Carter-Williams did -- Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Andre Miller. That's the entire list.

[AFM]

No offense to Brad Beal, but I want this guy as our starting two. Sheesh...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA[/youtube]

Might as well post this as well:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PawIt4Dd3hg[/youtube]

He's got a nice stroke for sure

[The Consiglieri]

WOW!

[montestewart]

Well, Muhammed can shoot, that's for sure.

[No-Man]

Bazz probably could pan out as a Caron Butler type of player, I'd draft him if he's there at 8.

Actually the big board for Wizards should be something like.

Noel
Porter
Muhammad
Bennett
Zeller
Len
Saric
Olynyk

dont want anything to do with Burke, Oladipo or McLemore, the 3 of them are starting material and in the end it'll only bring trouble.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Best Values (Players that might be had at 10 or more slots beyond where there eventual value is):
1. Tony Mitchell
2. Kelly Olynyk
3. Karasev
4. D. Saric
5. Glen Rice Jr.
6. Jeff Withey
7. Pierre Jackson
8. Adonis Thomas
9. S. Larkin
10. S. Muhammad

Karasev seems like an anti-Vesely to me. His development at a young age is like Beal's. I like his father being a coach and formerly a good international player.

I wonder if he drops out of round one.

[TGW]

Muhammad looks really lackadaisical in his workout. Yea he can shoot, but doesn't do anything else well. Oladipo was running hard, and was showing advanced dribbling techniques with the two balls (a drill he definitely learned at Dematha—all guards who play there have to learn these dribbling techniques to make the team). Muhammad is probably a better shooter, but that's about it. Oladipo does everything else much better—rebound, pass, handle the ball, defend, and rebound. To me there's no comparison between the two.

YODA score just solidifies things for me.

[stevemcqueen1]

Bazz probably could pan out as a Caron Butler type of player, I'd draft him if he's there at 8.

Caron came to mind for me too watching that workout. I like that triple threat game he's working on. If he masters that, he could be a Caron clone. It could be really effective for him.

You saw a lot of mid range shot making ability there, it's something he seems to have worked really hard on since he burst onto the scene in H.S. as a top recruit--he didn't use to have a good reputation as a shooter.

And that workout didn't show off his post game. That's probably his single most impressive scoring tool because it's so unusual for a perimeter player at his stage.

He's at his best scoring in transition though. He likes to run and would be a great fit for an up tempo team. Now that we're getting decent defensively, if we could rebound, we could really run a potent transition offense with Wall and Beal and someone like Muhammad.

[AFM]

Don't get me wrong, TGW, I would definitely take VO over Muhammad as well. But I'm assuming we'll be picking at 8 and he won't be there.

[nuposse04]

Watching the grind out pace of the playoffs and seeing how defensively oriented teams are getting, I'm not so quite sure if a players best attribute scoring wise is simply running out on fast break will translate to playoff success (I know some of you would point to Wall being in that mold but he showed enough IMO at the last 3rd of the season to make me believe he be fully effective in half court sets). Oladipo shouldn't be the one handling the ball with us anyways. I see Oladipo capping out as a very good role player in the playoffs should he help his team get there, but he doesn't seem like a guy that can score 22+ a game and will a team to victories. (Not that Shabazz can either) but it seems people are really slurping some kool aid regarding Oladipo. The again he is 21, so lets see how much he improves in the next 2-3 years.

[Jay81]

Hi guys!!!