Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[stevemcqueen1]

We're assuming Webster is coming back. I for one think he's gone. Ernie doesn't need to complicate things by drafting Porter and re-signing Webster. Means Ariza's trade value lowers and I actually think he brings more to the table than Webster. So in essence, yeah, we do have a gaping hole at the 3. There's no long term answer there. And let's not forget Porter can play the 4 in spurts. He needs to bulk up, but he's got a 7'2'' wingspan.

I would bring Webster back and still draft Porter even if Ariza opts to stay. Webster is a valuable member of the team.

I think we as a fan base are over valuing Ariza and Webster a bit. They are not good enough to keep us from drafting anyone at #3. Webster isn't even under contract and Ariza's contract is up next year.

Ariza is a streaky player. He gets injured too and had stretches this season where he looked awful and couldn't finish inside, looked a bit like he was dogging it. I think Porter is going to end up being a lot better than Ariza.

We could trade Ariza before the deadline or keep him for a playoff run and enjoy his 7.5 million in cap savings in the offseason.

We're going to the playoffs. But does anyone think that both Webster and Ariza will be healthy by May?

And the bottom line consideration must be, who can pair with Wall and Beal to be the third foundation piece of a long term contender? Nene, Okafor, Webster, and Ariza are good role players today. They are not long term foundation pieces. This is a third overall pick, a powerful team building asset if used right. That is what we should be expecting to get with it.

[Zonkerbl]

YODA update with all athletic test info (available) added. Here's the top 10:

1. Oladipo
2. Zeller
3. Noel
4. McLemore
5. Porter
6. Adams
7. Bennett
8. Burke
9. Olynyk
10. Carter-Williams

Oladipo looks like a worthy top pick. His final YODA rating is about the same as Ray Allen (JR), Patrick Ewing (SR), Jordan (SO), Chris Paul (FR), Ty Lawson (JR). The only guy in the database with a rating this good that was a bust: Michael Beasley. Hansbrough's final rating was close, but a notch below, and he's at least a useful role player.

Zeller looks like a solid 2nd pick in most drafts.

At 3, the Wizards will be able to choose between several players who rate in YODA as being worth a top 5 pick.

Unlike some others, I don't think Oladipo has the size to play SF regularly in the NBA. His standing reach would be well-below average for a SF, although his athleticism would still be outstanding. He'd still rate as the top pick if I evaluate him as a SF, but I think he (and his future team) would be happier if he's a SG.

Fascinating. I'd be fine with Zeller. Go IU!

Surprised Noel rates that highly in Yoda when everyone says he has no skills except blocking shots. What's the story there? Is the high score all athleticism, so that if he develops some skills he'd actually be off the charts?

I suppose we could draft Oladipo or McLemore to force someone behind us to trade to get him. But what if they all call our bluff and we're stuck with three starting quality guards? Yuck.

And it's comforting Porter isn't too much of a reach.

[Zonkerbl]

We're assuming Webster is coming back. I for one think he's gone. Ernie doesn't need to complicate things by drafting Porter and re-signing Webster. Means Ariza's trade value lowers and I actually think he brings more to the table than Webster. So in essence, yeah, we do have a gaping hole at the 3. There's no long term answer there. And let's not forget Porter can play the 4 in spurts. He needs to bulk up, but he's got a 7'2'' wingspan.

I would bring Webster back and still draft Porter even if Ariza opts to stay. Webster is a valuable member of the team.

I think we as a fan base are over valuing Ariza and Webster a bit. They are not good enough to keep us from drafting anyone at #3. Webster isn't even under contract and Ariza's contract is up next year.

Ariza is a streaky player. He gets injured too and had stretches this season where he looked awful and couldn't finish inside, looked a bit like he was dogging it. I think Porter is going to end up being a lot better than Ariza.

We could trade Ariza before the deadline or keep him for a playoff run and enjoy his 7.5 million in cap savings in the offseason.

We're going to the playoffs. But does anyone think that both Webster and Ariza will be healthy by May?

And the bottom line consideration must be, who can pair with Wall and Beal to be the third foundation piece of a long term contender? Nene, Okafor, Webster, and Ariza are good role players today. They are not long term foundation pieces. This is a third overall pick, a powerful team building asset if used right. That is what we should be expecting to get with it.

Yeah, no reason not to bring Webster back. Porter is a rookie.

[stevemcqueen1]

I am still stunned. Porter certainly seems like the obvious pick just like Beal was last year. The question is what to do if the Cavs take him.

Porter's standing reach is the same as Josh Smith. He has an all-around game and plays both ends. I think he has to be number 1 on the Wizards board.

I'm assuming in the hypothetical where the cavs take Porter, the Magic also take Noel or trades it to someone else that takes Noell? I would hope then we also trade down. With Noel and Porter off the board right off the bat, we're better off drafting a big man back where we were slotted in the bottom top 10, Zeller/Len/Adams territory.

That or trade for the future. Our top 3 for next year's top 3 protected with filler sounds better and better with Porter off the board.

I would not trade the 3rd overall pick for a top 3 protected 2014 pick. You'd probably end up with something in the late lottery if you did that.

I still think Zeller is going to go way earlier than 10ish. I would much rather we pick the guy we want at 3 even if it's a reach than trade down to the mid/late lottery and have to settle for what's left and try and shoe horn them into our construction.

[Rafael122]

We're assuming Webster is coming back. I for one think he's gone. Ernie doesn't need to complicate things by drafting Porter and re-signing Webster. Means Ariza's trade value lowers and I actually think he brings more to the table than Webster. So in essence, yeah, we do have a gaping hole at the 3. There's no long term answer there. And let's not forget Porter can play the 4 in spurts. He needs to bulk up, but he's got a 7'2'' wingspan.

I would bring Webster back and still draft Porter even if Ariza opts to stay. Webster is a valuable member of the team.

I think we as a fan base are over valuing Ariza and Webster a bit. They are not good enough to keep us from drafting anyone at #3. Webster isn't even under contract and Ariza's contract is up next year.

Ariza is a streaky player. He gets injured too and had stretches this season where he looked awful and couldn't finish inside, looked a bit like he was dogging it. I think Porter is going to end up being a lot better than Ariza.

We could trade Ariza before the deadline or keep him for a playoff run and enjoy his 7.5 million in cap savings in the offseason.

We're going to the playoffs. But does anyone think that both Webster and Ariza will be healthy by May?

And the bottom line consideration must be, who can pair with Wall and Beal to be the third foundation piece of a long term contender? Nene, Okafor, Webster, and Ariza are good role players today. They are not long term foundation pieces. This is a third overall pick, a powerful team building asset if used right. That is what we should be expecting to get with it.

Either Webster or Ariza would serve as a bridge to Porter starting his second year. The Wizards will have some cap room next offseason so the question is do you:

a) Draft Porter, let Webster walk, keep Ariza and keep him the whole year. Get the cap space

or b) Draft Porter, keep Webster, trade Ariza for players who have more than 1 year left on their contracts (thus biting into the cap space) and on top of that pay Webster $4 million a year to be the back up small forward.

Personally I choose A. We need all the cap room we can get, and that's mainly the reason why they should let Martell walk. They can find a back up, probably on the cheap next year.

[hands11]

Man, Nate, I had a great post I was writing up!

Suffice to say my post was: that EG isn't dumb enough to pass on Noel if he's available. If he's not, then I could see EG trading #3+Ves for #9+Derrick Williams and drafting Len with the 9th pick. Also could see trading #3 for #4 for Det future 1st to ensure Charlotte gets Mclemore. Also could see #3+Ves+Singleton for Gortat OR Dudley+#5.

Lots of options just opened up. That is both exciting and a little scary.

You are ridiculous if you think that trading down from #3 to #4 or #5 is going to get you anything more than maybe cash considerations or a 2nd rounder especially in his draft.

Given that it most likely won't affect the players drafted at all. Orlando going Burke, Washington going Porter, Charlotte going McLemore and Phoenix Oladipo.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether Charlotte prefers Oladipo or McLemore or maybe even Len.

If you responding to mhd, then don't include me in your quote response.

If you were trying to respond to my post, then read what I wrote and don't extract one line from it and make up the rest of a narrative.

Lots of options did open up. Much more then if we got 8-10. And in the post you extracted this one line from, I was talking about trading the pick as one of those options. Not trading down.

"
Lots of options just opened up. That is both exciting and a little scary.

I have to let this sink in some.

Going to be lots of teams that would want that #3. Thats a prime pick in this draft...

Pick as assets. And its all about maximizing your asset value.

Adding a Greg Monroe would be really interesting. I like Gortat for a while now so also an interesting taught.

So what is the best move to maximize this opportunity? ''

The only thing ridiculous is you finding any of that ridiculous about what I wrote.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

How many picks do the Cavs have? That's a team with a lot of options.

[Rafael122]

How many picks do the Cavs have? That's a team with a lot of options.

I read somewhere they have 10 picks in the next 3 drafts.

2013: 2 1's and 2 2's
2014: 1 first rounder and 3 2's
2015: 3 1's and 1 second rounder

They've got a lot of ammo.

[tontoz]

My pick would be Porter for all the reasons already discussed...two way player, high IQ, size for his position, work ethic, etc. To me, he is the perfect fit for how this team is trying to be molded.

I don't understand the love at all for Bennett. Tweener PF that doesn't play defense and takes bad shots. No thanks, I've already seen that play with Antawn Jamison.

Bennett shot 53% from the field, 37.5% from 3 (2.7 attempts per game). That is pretty good efficiency from a guy who is taking "bad shots".

Bennett is stronger now than Jamison ever was.

I have two big concerns with Bennett. The first is his standing reach which we don't know. The second is his shoulder. Rotator cuffs are notoriously troublesome. Surgery won't necessarily fix it. Rotator cuff problems can linger for years.

I would not take him over Porter. However i think he has to be in the mix if Porter is off the board. I can't stop thinking about how effective a Wall/Bennett pick and roll would be.

[Nivek]

Surprised Noel rates that highly in Yoda when everyone says he has no skills except blocking shots. What's the story there? Is the high score all athleticism, so that if he develops some skills he'd actually be off the charts?

None of Noel's score is based on athleticism because he didn't participate in the combine. He actually has a ding for the torn ACL.

Noel was low usage, but reasonably efficient with the possessions he used. His 2pt% was .590, which is decent. Bad FT shooting, but that's true of a lot of inside players. What pushes him up in the ratings: good rebounding and outstanding steals and blocks numbers. Per 40 minutes, he had 20.0 rebounds + steals + blocks. Here are players with similar levels of production in that combination of stats: Shaq, Hakeem, Mutombo, Faried, DeJuan Blair, Cousins, Cole Aldrich (injuries appear to have derailed his career), John Henson, Okafor, Millsap, Anthony Davis, Tim Duncan, Larry Sanders, Blake Griffin, and William Mosley (a 6-7 center who played for Northwestern State).

He's too skinny, which is a concern. I wanted to ding him on the strength issue because of that extremely low weight at the combine, but then I'd have to probably start guessing at his other tools and I don't want to get into that.

[Dark Faze]

A lot of teams just don't have many assets. The teams that would be salivating to pick who's left of Burke and McLemore would be the Cats, Wolves, New Orleans, Detroit...but their best assets (Greg Monroe, Anthony Davis, MKG) won't be on the table.

The only realistic option in that case would be trading the #3 to say the Wolves for Williams and the #9. Williams just hasn't been anywhere near good enough to move towards that uncertainty.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm just so glad. The lottery couldn't have worked out better for the Wizards. I didn't want Noel. After Arenas, and now with Nene, the last thing the Wizards need is another player who can't stay on the court. But when I saw Cleveland also in the top 3, I was like no the one other team that would take Porter. But then they got #1 which puts them in Noel land. Fine, let them take the risk, and leave Porter for us!


I love Porter for this team. I love his classic old school game, matching his old school classic name. What a fun team this will be for years to come, reminds me of the teams from the 70's. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter. Porter is like the Tim Duncan version of a SF. His game appears boring. But it is fundamentally strong and diverse. Porter scores inside and out, he can attack with swooping layups extending his long arms, finger rolls in the lane, post ups, runners, turn around Js, mid range jumpers, 3 pointers. He can shoot and finish through contact, gets to the line, passes and sets up teammates, defends, gets steals, boxes out, keeps moving on both ends of the floor, hustles, rebounds, gets loose balls, makes the smart play, court awareness, BBIQ, blocks shots, runs the floor, communicates, leadership. He is as ideal a pick for the Wizards this year as Beal was last year.

...

Also, I haven't heard any speculation about if Porter is drafted, does Ariza possibly decide to opt out as a free agent rather than possibly end up on the bench behind a rookie?

He won't end up on the bench behind a rookie. If Webster isn't signed, Ariza will start. Ariza won't leave that much $ on the table, no one will sign him for a deal bigger than he is getting right now, and no one is signing role-players for that kind of jingle while staring down the barrel of the austerity plan CBA.

Ariza may agitate to be swapped to a contender, as I believe he did last year, based on body language, the fact that he wasn't starting, and the willingness to swap him with Caron. That is Ted's M.O. (part of the 10 point plan, keep only players who want to be here. See Jordan Crawford, eg.). But that plan is still on the table for him, and this year his contract becomes even more valuable as a trade asset, so if he were unhappy here he's still got an exit plan.

My only quibble with Porter by himself is that he makes us good but not great. A solid playoff team down the road, but no champion. Essentially if he lives up to expectations he becomes the hybrid of this year's Webster and Ariza we want: enough range and offense to be reliable, not streaky, enough defense to be an asset not a liability. But all that means is that we get similar results to this year when healthy: we make the playoffs and put up a good fight against anybody. But no championship threat with out a long term answer as a 2-way Big.

Difference is we're good with youth who develop and grow together. We'll all enjoy rooting for that team. And maybe Ariza nets us an asset somehow. I'm jut greedy enough to want to trade down and net more. Maybe Porter, or the best of the prospect bigs, or Oladipo -- PLUS, um, something else.

Step One: collect underpants...
Step Three: World Domination!

We clearly don't have enough underpants yet.

I was going down a similar path too, focusing on positions and questions like, "Is Wall, Beal, Porter a contender? What about our bigs?"

But these are some considerations that weigh in Porter's favor:

- The primary concerns are finding someone that can play with Wall and Beal long term who will be good and not a bust, regardless of whether he is a SF or a big.

- Long term, I do think you can contend with a core of Wall, Beal, and Porter. Porter may not make multiple All Star games, but he's going to be damn good. A quintissential glue man. Wall and Beal are going to make multiple All Star games and they'll be the core of an outstanding offense by themselves and they are two way players. And Wall is a budding superstar. He's a franchise player that can power a contender. When you've got that player at PG, you can surround him with good players and it's enough, like Chicago. Only I believe Beal, Porter, and Nene are going to be better than Chicago's 2, 3, and 4. It's a sound construction IMO. Especially if you can get Oak back at a reduced salary.

- Short term, even though they are older, Okafor and Nene are better than Webster and Ariza after all. And Porter is better than Ariza and Webster IMO. So we're actually upgrading ourselves more net-net in the short term with Porter than we would a big to eventually displace Okafor.

- The chemistry would be so powerful with Porter.

[McGully Culkin]

It's imperative that EG packages our 2nd rounders and possibly a player to acquire a late 1st round pick. Jeff Withey almost makes TOO much sense. He'd be a great guy to groom behind Okafor this season.

Anyways, I love the potential core of Beal, Wall, and Porter. We just need something of a stretch 4, and we'd be good.

2 years from now.....

Withey
?
Porter
Beal
Wall

Me likes.

I kinda compare Withey to Omer Asik.

[Zonkerbl]

Surprised Noel rates that highly in Yoda when everyone says he has no skills except blocking shots. What's the story there? Is the high score all athleticism, so that if he develops some skills he'd actually be off the charts?

None of Noel's score is based on athleticism because he didn't participate in the combine. He actually has a ding for the torn ACL.

Noel was low usage, but reasonably efficient with the possessions he used. His 2pt% was .590, which is decent. Bad FT shooting, but that's true of a lot of inside players. What pushes him up in the ratings: good rebounding and outstanding steals and blocks numbers. Per 40 minutes, he had 20.0 rebounds + steals + blocks. Here are players with similar levels of production in that combination of stats: Shaq, Hakeem, Mutombo, Faried, DeJuan Blair, Cousins, Cole Aldrich (injuries appear to have derailed his career), John Henson, Okafor, Millsap, Anthony Davis, Tim Duncan, Larry Sanders, Blake Griffin, and William Mosley (a 6-7 center who played for Northwestern State).

He's too skinny, which is a concern. I wanted to ding him on the strength issue because of that extremely low weight at the combine, but then I'd have to probably start guessing at his other tools and I don't want to get into that.

So does that mean if he can bulk up and maintain his efficiency with higher usage he'd be ridiculous? Or Dikembe Mutombo? Actually that wouldn't be bad.

[Deeptu McPullup]

I think we as a fan base are over valuing Ariza and Webster a bit. They are not good enough to keep us from drafting anyone at #3. Webster isn't even under contract and Ariza's contract is up next year.

No way; Not only do we need to draft around Webster and Ariza, I’m looking to give AJ Price and Garret Temple input into the process as well.

What about Emir Preldžić? What kind of guy should we be drafting to make him feel comfortable in coming over? Are there any prominent camp invitees that we might be eying specifically? Would we really want to step on Alade Aminu’s toes with a shortsighted move towards the guy we feel is best player available with the third pick?

Actually, cheap lines aside, I share Nate33’s concerns about drafting Otto not helping us much next year combined with the potential low impact in the postseason compared with a 2-way big. He’s hellza gluey and high on my board, but it's hard to push him past the fallback scenario and start gorilla-pounding on the chest.

[Nivek]

The second is his shoulder. Rotator cuffs are notoriously troublesome. Surgery won't necessarily fix it. Rotator cuff problems can linger for years.

They can, but it's not all that common. I had rotator cuff surgery years ago and have had no recurring problems other than a very small reduction in range of movement. Bennett will surely have access to better medical care and rehab facilities than I did. Plus, he'll have the advantage of a couple decades of research into rehab techniques. I wouldn't be too concerned about the shoulder long-term.

[hands11]

My pick would be Porter for all the reasons already discussed...two way player, high IQ, size for his position, work ethic, etc. To me, he is the perfect fit for how this team is trying to be molded.

I don't understand the love at all for Bennett. Tweener PF that doesn't play defense and takes bad shots. No thanks, I've already seen that play with Antawn Jamison. If we aint going to take Porter, I'd rather trade the pick to get a stretch 4 that actually has size to play that position (e.g., Andersen).

I'm tired of drafting "athletic" guys with upside. I want someone that just knows how to play the game, plays both ends of the court, and has a high work ethic. That's Porter, or alternatively Dipo. There is nothing wrong with making the safe pick. Had we taken this approach before, we would not be stuck with Vesely.

I also don't understand people arguing that Porter shouldn't be the pick because he does not have "star" potential. I don't see Porter having any less star potential than any of the other prospects. All of them have huge question marks and that is the reason that this is considered a weak draft.

In the end, my choices would be:

1. Porter
2. Trade the pick for someone like Kanter or Anderson + a lower pick
3. Dipo

Hard to argue against that kind of logic. Its sound. Missing on this pick would hurt more then getting it mostly right. Do you take the triple with no outs or swing for the fence. Triples with no outs end up getting you a run a lot of the times. Not a baseball stat guy but I would guess those percentages work in your favor.

To me, the can't miss top 10 players were Otto, Burke, VO and CJM and Burke didn't fit. And Len is probably in that group as well. I feel pretty confident that his floor is good enough to consider him a can't miss and he is clearly a center unlike some others. The question is his foot.

Noel - to light. I heard people talking about him as a PF now
Bennett - motor and D
Shabbazz - lots of questions
McClemore - maybe a question, maybe not. Not sure about him. Seemed to shy immature to me. But he doesn't fit here anyway.

All that said, I was more then happy to move forward with Trevor A and Webster. SF was not to slot I thought needed addressed.

Should be interesting to see what they do.

[tontoz]

Getting back to Porter, i don't think Ariza/Webster should factor into the decision at all. Webster is a UFA and Ariza has one year left.

Porter can create his own shot off the dribble. Ariza/Webster couldn't do that much at all.

[Nivek]

So does that mean if he can bulk up and maintain his efficiency with higher usage he'd be ridiculous? Or Dikembe Mutombo? Actually that wouldn't be bad.

Don't know about Mutombo, but I guess that's possible. Most similar to Noel in my statistical doppleganger thing are these guys: Tim Duncan (FR), Greg Monroe (FR), Hasheem Thabeet (SO). After that, the similarity drops off. Other names that show up in proximity: Drummond, Taj Gibson (FR, SO & JR), Dieng (SO & JR), Booker (FR), Haywood (SO), Etan Thomas (SR), Mutombo (JR).

Closest was Duncan, who was even lower usage as a freshman, shot worse from 2pt range, but was a much better FT shooter as a freshman. Duncan rebounded a little better as a freshman and was a comparable shot blocker, but got fewer steals.

[stevemcqueen1]

We're assuming Webster is coming back. I for one think he's gone. Ernie doesn't need to complicate things by drafting Porter and re-signing Webster. Means Ariza's trade value lowers and I actually think he brings more to the table than Webster. So in essence, yeah, we do have a gaping hole at the 3. There's no long term answer there. And let's not forget Porter can play the 4 in spurts. He needs to bulk up, but he's got a 7'2'' wingspan.

I would bring Webster back and still draft Porter even if Ariza opts to stay. Webster is a valuable member of the team.

I think we as a fan base are over valuing Ariza and Webster a bit. They are not good enough to keep us from drafting anyone at #3. Webster isn't even under contract and Ariza's contract is up next year.

Ariza is a streaky player. He gets injured too and had stretches this season where he looked awful and couldn't finish inside, looked a bit like he was dogging it. I think Porter is going to end up being a lot better than Ariza.

We could trade Ariza before the deadline or keep him for a playoff run and enjoy his 7.5 million in cap savings in the offseason.

We're going to the playoffs. But does anyone think that both Webster and Ariza will be healthy by May?

And the bottom line consideration must be, who can pair with Wall and Beal to be the third foundation piece of a long term contender? Nene, Okafor, Webster, and Ariza are good role players today. They are not long term foundation pieces. This is a third overall pick, a powerful team building asset if used right. That is what we should be expecting to get with it.

Either Webster or Ariza would serve as a bridge to Porter starting his second year. The Wizards will have some cap room next offseason so the question is do you:

a) Draft Porter, let Webster walk, keep Ariza and keep him the whole year. Get the cap space

or b) Draft Porter, keep Webster, trade Ariza for players who have more than 1 year left on their contracts (thus biting into the cap space) and on top of that pay Webster $4 million a year to be the back up small forward.

Personally I choose A. We need all the cap room we can get, and that's mainly the reason why they should let Martell walk. They can find a back up, probably on the cheap next year.

Do you think Webster would cost as much as 4 million a year? I think he could cost less. There are a lot of shooters out there on the market and it's a bearish market because of the CBA.

I think Porter could start as a rookie.

If we want the cap savings, then we don't have to trade Ariza even if we draft Porter and bring back Webster. But I'd trade him because I think you might be able to get something better than just savings out of him. Maybe another expiring contract at the PG position for a team looking for a 3 & D wing?

I would keep Webster because I think he's a pillar of the locker room and part of the culture change we've successfully achieved. I don't think that's true of Ariza. And I think, with or without Porter, as a starter or as a reserve, Webster is a valuable contributor to a playoff caliber team when he's healthy. So is Ariza. But he makes too much money for what he brings to the table and I wouldn't keep him long term unless he took a significant pay cut.

You need six good perimeter players at least. Wall, Beal, Porter, Webster, Ariza is five. If the money is right, then that group should be kept around. Beal will grow his ability to run some point when John is sitting in time. There would probably be lineups where Porter, Webster, and Ariza all see the floor at the same time because each of them can play multiple positions.