Trade winds swirling around underperforming Jays

[polo007]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/b ... e12022618/

With Sunday’s session against ace CC Sabathia postponed, the Jays have lost eight of nine games to the Yankees this season, leaving their overall record in the American League East at 9-17.

As a direct consequence, the team had a 0.4-per-cent chance of winning the AL East and a 2.9-per-cent chance of making the playoffs as of Sunday, according to a simulated season projected by Baseball Prospectus (baseballprospectus.com).

Why those odds may distort the prognosis at this point of the season: In the past 31 games, the Jays are 12-19 – Baltimore went through an identical stretch last season and made the playoffs; the Tigers went 11-20 and qualified for the World Series; the A’s went 10-21 and won the AL West; the Cardinals went 11-20 and took World Series champion San Francisco to seven games in the National League Championship Series.

Still, simple math dictates that unless the Blue Jays turn around their divisional record, starting with seven games against Tampa Bay and Baltimore at home this week, general manager Alex Anthopoulos will be fielding many calls as trade talks heat up at the all-star break in two months.

“I haven’t thought about that – we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it,” Anthopoulos said in an interview.

Already, pitchers R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are being rumoured as targets, and Josh Johnson (triceps strain), who is in his free-agent year, should be a hot commodity if he returns forcefully from the disabled list.

“There are no no-trade clauses in any of those contracts,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s organizational policy, to maintain flexibility either way.”

[Raps in 4]

I definitely wouldn't mind if we rebuilt, but just the same I'd like to see this team give it another shot next year.

[Fairview4Life]

Hilarious. Yes, RA Dickey is rumoured as being on the trade block. By one Orioles writer throwing some **** at the wall. But now it's also in the Globe. So two articles means smoke! And smoke means fire! AND RA DICKEY IS GETTING TRADED YOU GUYS!

[Michael Bradley]

I think AA will try to trade some guys (Johnson, Buehrle, Oliver, etc) in an attempt to retool for next season but I highly doubt he will start a rebuilding process so soon.

[dagger]

I think AA will try to trade some guys (Johnson, Buehrle, Oliver, etc) in an attempt to retool for next season but I highly doubt he will start a rebuilding process so soon.

We still have a core that will keep us respectable and possibly provide the basis for a playoff run next season under a new manager. Certainly, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Lawrie are keepers. Melky Cabrera is likely a keeper. So that's five solid bats (well, four and Lawrie's potential). I advocate moving Lind, sell high (well, relatively speaking). And I'm not keen on throwing good arb money at Rasmus or Bonifacio when there are cheap replacements at BUF who can probably match their offence.

For me, the issue is pitching. If someone wants Buehrle and will pay most of his salary, I'd certainly move him even though his last two starts were better than his first several. There are so many question marks. Who is in next year's rotation? Do you pay Josh Johnson for his contribution and frequent injuries? I'd be hesitant to do so. If Dickey, Morrow and Happ are back, who fills out the rotation?

-Can Romero rediscover his confidence before next season?
-Is Stroman a future starter or reliever and can he be ready by next season?
-Can Hutchinson make it back to his pre-injury form by next season
-Can Drabek also get back to where he was pre-injury, and improve his control and self-control?
-Can Sean Nolin or Chad Jenkins be the fifth starter for a fraction of the money of a veteran (letting AA put his money elsewhere).

[The_Hater]

Is there a single player in the lineup or starting rotation that the Jays wouldn't be "selling low" on right now?

[Lateral Quicks]

Trade winds sure, but a complete rebuild is unlikely. The season is not totally lost, and this core is still dramatically underperforming their career averages.

[dagger]

Is there a single player in the lineup or starting rotation that the Jays wouldn't be "selling low" on right now?

It depends on how you value them. And you have to include the financial perspective as well. For example, if you sold low on Buerhle, replaced him with a rookie next season - let's say, Stroman - but opened up some money to put at another position, it might be better than staying with Buerhle. With Edwin, you might get pretty good value all things considered because his extension is pretty good... so he might get back a quality prospect. Not saying we should trade him, just trying to define his value.

[Cross-over]

I think AA will try to trade some guys (Johnson, Buehrle, Oliver, etc) in an attempt to retool for next season but I highly doubt he will start a rebuilding process so soon.

We still have a core that will keep us respectable and possibly provide the basis for a playoff run next season under a new manager. Certainly, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Lawrie are keepers. Melky Cabrera is likely a keeper. So that's five solid bats (well, four and Lawrie's potential). I advocate moving Lind, sell high (well, relatively speaking). And I'm not keen on throwing good arb money at Rasmus or Bonifacio when there are cheap replacements at BUF who can probably match their offence.

For me, the issue is pitching. If someone wants Buehrle and will pay most of his salary, I'd certainly move him even though his last two starts were better than his first several. There are so many question marks. Who is in next year's rotation? Do you pay Josh Johnson for his contribution and frequent injuries? I'd be hesitant to do so. If Dickey, Morrow and Happ are back, who fills out the rotation?

-Can Romero rediscover his confidence before next season?
-Is Stroman a future starter or reliever and can he be ready by next season?
-Can Hutchinson make it back to his pre-injury form by next season
-Can Drabek also get back to where he was pre-injury, and improve his control and self-control?
-Can Sean Nolin or Chad Jenkins be the fifth starter for a fraction of the money of a veteran (letting AA put his money elsewhere).

Brett Lawrie has all the tools but I just don't see him putting it all together. His trade value is only going to diminish. He is one young player with possible potential that I think we should let another team worry about.

[Penny1993]

So in 10 games , Dickey has 7 quality starts and is rumoured to be traded because he is under-performing?

Fk'ing Toronto media, I swear, are out to make fans more depressed than they already should be....

[LLJ]

One player or two isn't going to get us into the playoffs this season. I guess getting rid of some guys for next season is a nice idea, but as Hater said, it'd be selling low.

I'm willing to gamble with this group again next season. Just don't have any awful months like April and they could get in with this talent.

Also, more attention to DETAIL

[Graham's Cracker]

Darren Oliver to the Rangers is probably a good possibility if we don't get in the Wild Card picture. Even if we don't get much of a return it's a near-certainty he won't be back. While we can give him the chance to head home to his family a wee bit sooner, plus have a great post-season shot.

[LYKaPROinDaGaME]

I dont think its a good idea to blow it up. We would not land as high valued prospects we gave up in those trades as a lot of our players are not performing to their expectations so far.

[nonc]

Brett Lawrie has all the tools but I just don't see him putting it all together. His trade value is only going to diminish. He is one young player with possible potential that I think we should let another team worry about.

trading lawrie is such a laughably dumb idea, ah internet.

[changes]

Blow er up.

Nothing worse than cheering for a team riddled with 50 year old scrubs.

[TorontoRaptures]

Many players should be available. That's not to say we need to trade them but we should be fielding offers: Oliver, JJ, Melky, Buehrle, JPA, Lind, Boni, Rajai.

Oliver is obvious, a vet who's about to retire who deserves one last chance at post season or at least playing closer to home.
With JJ it would be nice if we could get him healthy first and build up a bit of value before trading him. If they think they can re-sign him on the low in the offseason to a 1 year prove it contract, then it's worth keeping him around and hoping to get good value from him next year. He probably signs long term with a large market club at an over inflated contract next year though even with injuries.
Melky is not the sort of player I want around a losing ball club. I imagine he's going to continue presenting with nagging injuries and the weight and hustle will be in question. He's a good hitter and one I think would step up big for us in the playoffs but think he'll grow unhappy if he we struggle too much.
JPA still has flashy power numbers and seems to have more respect than he's worth. There are stupid GMs out there. Would have to get #s up first though and if he did that the team would choose to keep him.
Lind's value is higher than it's been in awhile and he's still nothing special. If teams are interested...
Boni/Rajai could offer speed to a team in need and we have some to spare. Their defence and baseball IQ is painful to watch and having both of them is superfluous.

[sule]

Johnson's up for an extension I believe, and i'm pretty sure we're not going to give him what he wants. I think he's a good candidate to be moved.

Boni needs to be moved too. For anything, he's quite the liability defensively.

If we're looking to re-tool our pitching, I like the idea of maybe bringing Cliff Lee.

[s e n s i]

one of evan gattis/brian mccann has to be expendable by the trade deadline, why not try and swing a deal with the braves

josh johnson + darren oliver + jp arencibia + gose/sierra + more filler

to atlanta for:

brian mccann + alex wood + cory gearrin

[Randle McMurphy]

one of evan gattis/brian mccann has to be expendable by the trade deadline, why not try and swing a deal with the braves

josh johnson + darren oliver + jp arencibia + gose/sierra + more filler

to atlanta for:

brian mccann + alex wood + cory gearrin

McCann is a FA at the end of the year. Why not just sign him if you want him?

[s e n s i]

because frankly im tired of jpa, his plummeting obp and his refusal to at least try and be a better overall hitter and want him gone now dammit. a 4 month rental for mccann so be it, AA would end up extending him below market value anyway

that is slightly serious, though admittedly i didn't even bother checking mccann's contract details either