June 6th-8th
Blue Jays Top Selections (First 5 Rounds):
11.
47.
83.
115.
145.
Blue Jays Bonus-Pool for First 10 Rounds (14 selections):
$6,398,200
Keith Law's Latest Top 50 Draft Prospect Rankings
Welcome to the second installment of the Future 50 for 2013, my ranking of the top 50 prospects for this June's Rule 4 draft. (For version 1.0 of the Future 50, click here.)
This is not a projection or "mock" draft -- I'll start doing those in May, once team preferences start to narrow around specific sets of players. This list is a ranking by talent and upside based on my own scouting of players (live and off video) and conversations with scouts from all over the country.
As with my ranking of the top 100 pro prospects, I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid overuse of the terms "average" and "above average" across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on.
Now, on to the rankings.
1Mark AppelPOS: RHPHT: 6-5WT: 215School: StanfordAnalysis: Still clearly the best player in this draft, boasting stuff, command, an out-pitch in his slider, a good delivery and athleticism. If I were the Astros (or the Cubs, picking second, which I think is Appel's floor), I'd try to work out a deal less than the recommended bonus number ($7.7 million for Houston) but more than the figure Appel turned down from the Pirates last year ($3.8 million), with the carrot of a big league callup in September if he throws well after signing. He could pitch in a major league rotation in 2014 regardless.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 1
2Jonathan GrayPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 239School: OklahomaAnalysis: Boasts more power than Appel, hitting 100 miles per hour and sitting at 94-98 with the fastball and possessing a plus-plus slider of his own. Gray doesn't have Appel's command track record but mighthave just as high of a ceiling. He's clearly the second-best player in the draft, but after these two guys, you could go in a lot of directions. There is no clear No. 3.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 8
3Austin MeadowsPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Grayson (Ga.) HSAnalysis: Meadows has the best combination of tools among prep players in this draft, but he has had only a so-so spring, and scouts have commented on his lack of energy on the field, questioning how badly he wants to play baseball professionally. While that's often a nonsense accusation, I do wish Meadows played with the kind of fire and intensity that Clint Frazier or Nick Ciuffo display on the field. His upside is still enormous, thanks to his size, raw power and ability to run and cover ground in the outfield.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 3
4Sean ManaeaPOS: LHPHT: 6-5WT: 235School: Indiana StateAnalysis: It's been a good spring for Manaea but not as dominant as he was on the Cape last summer, which might speak to his high floor, with the potential for something more if last season's version returns. He has pitched at 90-94 mph most of the spring and misses a lot of bats with the fastball. It's not a great delivery, and the slider has been more average than plus, but this is the best college lefty in the draft, and he should go pretty high.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2
5Kohl StewartPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: St. Pius X (Houston)Analysis: If he stays healthy, he might be Josh Beckett -- the old version, not the slightly pudgy average-fastball-with-no-life version you see today. Stewart, who is committed to Texas A&M to carry a clipboard for a year behind Johnny Football on the football field, shows four pitches, including a knockout slider despite a rudimentary delivery. With pro instruction, he has top-of-the-rotation potential.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 14
6Kris BryantPOS: 3B/OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215School: San DiegoAnalysis: This might be a little aggressive for a guy with maybe a 25-30 percent chance of staying at third, but he's one of the top two or three power bats among college guys (with Hunter Renfroe and perhaps Austin Wilson), is a good enough athlete for right field and has a solid track record of performance. He wouldn't fall out of the top five picks today.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6
7Braden ShipleyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: NevadaAnalysis: He's a tall, athletic right-hander capable of running his fastball to 97 mph, while sitting in the low 90s. He possesses an out-pitch changeup and has a chance for an above-average to plus curveball with more experience. I saw him at high altitude, but the breaking ball is still just average or so, even at sea level. The delivery works, and he fields his position as well as you'd expect a converted shortstop to do.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 10
8Clint FrazierPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Loganville (Ga.) HSAnalysis: He has the best bat speed in the draft, bar none, and is in the middle of a ferocious spring at the plate. I don't care that he's red-headed -- you'd be surprised the extent to which you still hear that trope, as if we were scouting Kid Nichols and King Kelly out there -- but 6-foot-1 right-handed future corner outfielders have a high bar to clear at the plate. I prefer Meadows -- who plays right down the road -- but if you asked me to drop $100 on which one goes earlier in the draft, I'd put it on the Red Devil.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 7
9Ryne StanekPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 190School: ArkansasAnalysis: Stanek came into the season with an outside chance to go second overall but has underperformed a little and been jerked around by the Hogs' coaching staff a lot. He was moved to different days and forced to overuse the slider rather than pitch off his fastball, which has reached 97 mph and will sit between 92 and 94 mph. Even with the weird usage, he's performed well; he just hasn't dominated as expected.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 4
10J.P. CrawfordPOS: SSB/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 175School: Lakewood (Calif.) HSAnalysis: The best shortstop in the draft -- maybe the only true shortstop in the draft -- Crawford would be more like a top 20-25 guy in a typical draft class, but the shortage up the middle and his potential to hit for average should push him into the top half of the round. I believe he'll hit, although his lack of running speed and power are drawbacks.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 13
11Austin WilsonPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 245School: StanfordAnalysis: Finally back from a stress reaction above his right elbow that kept him out of action for over a month, Wilson came out swinging, going 7-for-18 with a homer, five walks and two strikeouts since his return. He now has to stay healthy the rest of the season and display the power he's always promised to have as a top-20 pick. I'm higher on him than the industry as a whole, for what it's worth.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 5
12Colin MoranPOS: 3BB/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: North CarolinaAnalysis: Moran is the best performer among college bats, with great feel for hitting and strong plate discipline, and has the hands and arm for third base but might lack the range. If you think he stays at third, he's a top-10 pick, maybe top five. If you think he ends up at first, he's a back-of-the-first-round guy. After seeing him this week, I think it's more likely he can handle third in pro ball and be at least close to average than it is that he has to move to another position.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 30
13Ryan BoldtPOS: OFB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Red Wing (Minn.) HSAnalysis: He possesses no 70-grade tools -- but a lot of 60s -- reminding me in some ways of Rockies 2012 first-rounder David Dahl, at least on the field. Boldt's season has barely begun, thanks to a late scheduled start on April 4 and repeated cancellations due to bad weather, limiting scouts' looks at him and increasing the pressure to showcase his tools every time out.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 18
14Trey BallPOS: LHP/OFHT: 6-6WT: 180School: New Castle (Ind.) HSAnalysis: Ball, a two-way prospect, hasn't swung the bat well this spring but is hitting 94 consistently, and 6-foot-6 left-handers with that kind of arm strength and Ball's athleticism don't slide far in any draft, let alone in one that's weak in high school pitching.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 11
15Jon DenneyPOS: CB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 205School: Yukon (Okla.) HSAnalysis: I think the industry consensus favors Reese McGuire as the best catcher in this draft, but I still prefer Denney for his swing and raw power, even if his catching needs more work, especially on balls low in the zone.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 9
16Ryan EadesPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 198School: LSUAnalysis: Eades' combination of above-average velocity and a potential out pitch in the curveball and his history of success in the SEC have him solidly in the first round but can't get him the Friday-night slot at LSU, which has been usurped by sophomore Aaron Nola.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 15
17Dominic SmithPOS: 1BB/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 195School: Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.)Analysis: Smith has an odd profile for a first-round high school bat: He is strictly a first baseman, despite a 70-grade arm, but has a great left-handed swing and actually plays a very good first base as well.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 19
18Aaron JudgePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-7WT: 255School: Fresno StateAnalysis: Judge would match Frank Howard as the biggest outfielder in MLB history, and there's a legitimate concern about a 6-foot-7 hitter's strike zone. He shows huge raw power in batting practice but is more geared to hard contact in games -- hard enough that you worry he's going to take some shortstop's head off. For a guy his size, he's also a good athlete -- not good enough to stay in center but potentially above-average on defense in right.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 32
19Hunter RenfroePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 216School: Mississippi StateAnalysis: Renfroe was something of a tools goof coming into the season but now has put everything together in games, starting with a power explosion at Kentucky a few weeks ago that hasn't abated. He's second in Division I in homers and leads in wOBA, according to collegesplits.com, with the raw power and other tools to back it up. I'm scheduled to see him at Vanderbilt on April 26.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
20Reese McGuirePOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Kentwood HS (Kent, Wash.)Analysis: Some teams view McGuire as a top-10 talent, a no-doubt catcher with a good chance to hit; I see a potentially good catcher with a chance to hit with some risk on both sides of the ball, especially given the trouble he had catching higher-quality stuff during showcases last summer. He'll almost certainly go higher than I have him ranked here (which, I suppose, means I wouldn't get him if I were drafting).
PREVIOUS RANKING: 28
21Andrew ThurmanPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 205School: UC IrvineAnalysis: Thurman doesn't have the pure power of the right-handed starters higher on this list but makes up for it with better command, as well as a four-pitch mix that includes a plus changeup. This gives some hope he'd move very quickly through a minor league system.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 24
22Nick CiuffoPOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 200School: Lexington (S.C.) HSAnalysis: The best receiver among catchers in this class, Ciuffo, a South Carolina commit, boosted his stock at the recent National High School Invitational in Cary, N.C., which took place at the USA Baseball complex. He showed off more power as well as an above-average arm.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
23Marco GonzalesPOS: LHPHT: 6-1WT: 185School: GonzagaAnalysis: Gonzales is polished lefty with a plus-plus changeup, above-average curvebal and a fringy fastball that might be in the 86-88 mph range when he's going every fifth day in pro ball. He's an outstanding athlete who will likely destroy the low minors if the team that signs him decides to waste his time in that way.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 22
24Chris AndersonPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 225School: JacksonvilleAnalysis: Anderson started the season as a possible top-10 pick but has been worked very hard all spring and might be wearing down; when I saw him earlier this month, his stuff was inferior to the reports I'd heard in late February and March. Please don't tell me again how much college coaches care about their players, not when we see too many of them try to run their best starters into the ground.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 12
25Kyle SerranoPOS: RHPHT: 6-0WT: 185School: Farragut (Tenn.) HSAnalysis: Tennessee coach Dave Serrano must be bemoaning his bad luck, as his Friday-night starter for 2014 has been so good this season that even familial ties won't be enough to get him on campus -- not with a mid-90s fastball and a 70-grade curveball.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
26Billy McKinneyPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-1WT: 195School: Plano (Texas) West HSAnalysis: He has a very smooth, sound, left-handed swing to make up for the fact that he'll almost certainly be a left fielder in pro ball, although that makes him relatively high risk because of the offensive standard at the position.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 27
27Devin WilliamsPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 172School: Hazelwood West HS (Hazelwood, Mo.)Analysis: An athletic right-hander with a somewhat narrow frame but very quick arm, Williams hits 95 mph and shows two solid secondary offerings.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
28Trevor WilliamsPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 228School: Arizona StateAnalysis: A strike-throwing right-hander with big velocity, Williams has never missed many bats, which has been the case this season.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 20
29Connor JonesPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 205School: Great Bridge HS (Chesapeake, Va.)Analysis: Jones is a very loose-armed, projectable right-hander who's been up to 94 mph and can really locate the ball well for a high school kid; he's committed to Virginia and might be a tough sign, though I think he's good enough for some team to pay him $1.5 million or more.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 25
30Aaron BlairPOS: RHPHT: 6-5WT: 220School: MarshallAnalysis: He's got a great pitcher's frame, and his fastball is up to 95 mph. He has a much-improved changeup and is now pitching consistently on Saturdays after Marshall had jerked him all over the week earlier in the spring.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 39
31Hunter HarveyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 175School: Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.)Analysis: Son of former big leaguer Bryan Harvey, Hunter is an extremely projectable right-hander who already has a good curveball and will sit in the 90-93 mph range. He has touched higher velocities on occasion this spring.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 42
32Matt KrookPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 190School: St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.)Analysis: The package is the same -- big, broad-shouldered, up to 92-93 mph, future plus curveball -- but the performance hasn't held, including a disastrous outing last Friday in front of a lot of national scouts. It was the kind of outing that can (rightly or wrongly) severely damage a player's draft stock.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 17
33Alex GonzalezPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Oral RobertsAnalysis: He continues to perform while flashing three above-average pitches, including a 92-94 mph fastball and a 60-grade slider; Gonzalez projects as a mid-rotation starter in the majors and could easily get into the last half of the first round.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 44
34Andrew MitchellPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 225School: TCUAnalysis: Mitchell is finally in the rotation where he belongs, showing potential mid-rotation stuff. The command, though, hasn't been there yet, either because he was used to working out of the bullpen for the first few weeks, or because the command just flat out isn't there yet.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 16
35Eric JagieloPOS: 3BB/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: Notre DameAnalysis:Jagielo is a power-hitting third baseman with a good chance to stay at the hot corner and a strong command of the strike zone; in a year devoid of college bats at skill positions, he's likely a late first-rounder.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 48
36Phil BickfordPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 185School: Oaks Christian HS (Westlake Village, Calif.)Analysis: Bickford is a projectable right-hander who has hit 97 mph and pitched between 92 and 94 mph for the past month or so. With a solid 6-foot-4 frame, he particularly stood out at the recent Boras Classic tournament in Southern California.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
37Jacob BrentzPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 195School: Parkway South HS (Manchester, Mo.)Analysis: Brentz has hit 97 mph several times and might have touched triple digits, depending on who you ask. He also possesses a soft curveball that has decent rotation.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
38Dustin PetersonPOS: SSHT: 6-2WT: 180School: Gilbert (Ariz.) HSAnalysis: The younger brother of New Mexico third baseman DJ Peterson (who is a bit further down the list), Dustin has a better defensive profile and will probably ending up at second or third base. He owns a better pure hit tool as well. I'm scheduled to see him on Monday.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
39Logan ShorePOS: RHPB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 185School: Coon Rapids (Minn.) HSAnalysis: Shore is a good-sized left-hander who runs the fastball to 93-94 mph with a good curveball -- but his school's season starts today, so he hasn't really been scouted this spring, even as other states' schedules are winding down.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
40Rob KaminskyPOS: LHPHT: 6-0WT: 190School: St. Joseph Regional (Montvale, N.J.)Analysis: Weather has limited his starts so far, but he's been up to 92 mph already. He has a plus curveball and is among the most polished prep arms in the class.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 45
41Cody ReedPOS: LHPHT: 6-4WT: 220School: Northwest Mississippi CCAnalysis: I first mentioned Reed on Twitter a few weeks ago -- he's a 6-foot-4 lefty with a plus curveball and a delivery that works whose fastball gets up to 94 mph. He's committed to Ole Miss but should never get to campus.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
42Blake TaylorPOS: LHPHT: 6-4WT: 185School: Dana Hills HS (Mission, Viejo, Calif.) Analysis: Taylor has easy 90-92 mph velocity, which can reach up to 95. He already has an above-average curveball and a projectable frame but primarily needs to work on command and developing a third pitch.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
43D.J. PetersonPOS: 1BB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 205School: New MexicoAnalysis: Peterson owns one of the better pure bats in this class, although I think he's a power-before-average guy and will most likely end up at first base because he lacks the range teams want in their third basemen.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 43
44Jason HurshPOS: RHPHT: 6-1WT: 197School: Oklahoma StateAnalysis: He sits in the mid-90s, with good life on the fastball, in his first year back after Tommy John surgery; his breaking ball and change aren't as advanced, and it's not a great delivery because it's fairly heavy on the arm.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 29
45Tim AndersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 171School: East Central CCAnalysis: He's a very athletic junior college shortstop who can run and might stay at short, but he faces the expected questions about how advanced his hit tool is.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 50
46Wil CrowePOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 225School: Pigeon Forge (Tenn.) HSAnalysis: Crowe is a big, very physical right-hander who is committed to South Carolina. He has an above-average curveball and has been up to 93 mph with his fastball. He might be a high-maintenance body as he matures.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 41
47Jonathon CrawfordPOS: RHPHT: 6-1WT: 205School: FloridaAnalysis: Crawford's velocity has been better lately -- more consistently up to 95 -- but the delivery and poor command have more and more scouts (myself included) thinking he's destined to be a reliever in the long run.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 26
48Michael LorenzenPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195School: Cal State FullertonAnalysis: Lorenzen is a very toolsy position player with no track record of hitting, but his fastball has been up to 100 mph in relief and will sit in the mid-90s, making him a potential upside play by a team willing to work on converting him into a full-time pitcher.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
49Travis DemerittePOS: 3BB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 195School: Winder-Barrow HS (Statham, Ga.)Analysis: He's an athletic high school infielder who has been on fire at the plate, especially in his show of power; he has arguably the fastest bat, after Clint Frazier, in the class.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR
50Phil ErvinPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 5-11WT: 190School: SamfordAnalysis: An undersized centerfielder with a strong track record of performance between this spring and last summer on the Cape, Ervin profiles as a right fielder in pro ball given his thick lower half. He hasn't faced much quality pitching while in school.
Hoping for Trey Ball or Jon Denney at our first pick at 10. Trey Ball's a tall, projectable lefty that pitches in cold weather climate that just got his season started. Standing at 6'6 and 180lbs, it's drool worthy where his fastball and other pitches will be at once he fills out his frame especially as a lefty that's toping up at 93. I can't stand to see anymore of Arencibia's DH skills at catcher and Denney could be the best all around catcher in this year's draft. Could create another catcher controversy in a few years if he puts everything together.
