Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[GhostsOfGil]

Watched some more film on Bennette. He reminds me of Jason Maxiell without a back to the basket game. At his size, I'm not seeing star potential. Looks slow laterally too.

[tontoz]

Question for Oladipo supporters: Other than his efficiency this year, was there anything other than his athleticism that makes you think he can be a big scorer in the NBA?

We're talking about a guy who only fired off 8 shots a game despite his efficiency.

You can't trust the longball stats at all. He made 30 threes the whole year. That sample size is terrible. So there isn't any evidence to suggest he's a great shooter.

That'd be OKAY because slashing twos can be very effective ala D-Wade, but then you look at his free throw rate--3.6 free throw attempts a game as a JUNIOR? That doesn't speak well of dominant slashing ability. Wade averaged 7.5 FTA a game and averaged over 20 PPG as a sophmore. Harden averaged over 7.7 a game as a soph and he could actually shoot.

Not saying Dipo is going to be either of those guys, but 3.6?

And he's barely shooting the ball? He has a negative assist to turnover ratio as well.

I really don't even think he's worth taking in the top 10 to be honest. Nothing statistically supports him being all that good at anything other than defense.

I don't get the hype on him at all. I think he could be a good low volume/good efficiency scorer who plays tough D but that is all. No way would i even consider him with Beal on board.

[The Consiglieri]

Cavs are weird. Do they really think that a Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller frontcourt is going to win them a single playoff series moving forward? Sure they have a need at SF, but they are dumb for even debating missing out on a franchise center.

Lol are we still arguing the pick at #3? Porter has a good chance of being Paul George good. Not as good of a ball handler but a better shooter, just as good of a defender, better rebounder and passer.

I can tell you that I'm coming around, especially after the Boeheim quote. Whenever that kind of thing comes about I always wish there was a simple like coach quote generator, where you could use a filter on "coach quotes about prospects", and find out if they just talk bollocks, or if its rare that they prop anyone like that. If Boeheim rarelys gives the praise, then that is huge, and honestly, while I still like Noel, Bennett, and Oladipo more, and would probably be more interested in trading down and picking up a '14 pick (pipe dream right?) in the move, then taking Porter. But, if that praise is true, then I honestly think, with Wall/Beal/Porter, we have the makings of a Warriors situation (Curry/Thompson/Barnes), with a similar elite, young, high BBIQ backcourt+SF, and a quality vet laden front court, and the attractiveness to lure high value guys like apparently the Warriors just have (Apparently Howard has added them to the list-if I were the warriors, id run for the hills though, and save my money for a saner, heathier, younger FA, w/o all the baggage) by the '14-'16 FA classes.

The future looks a lot brighter than it did 72 hours ago.

[The Consiglieri]

I want Porter over Noel. I think the Nene/Okafor front court is good for a few more seasons and the money that opens up can get us a decent free agent big. Guys have gotten good rebounding/defensive c's in free agency the last few off-seasons.

I think Porter is being underrated in his scoring potential. With his length, shooting and defense we'll have a core of potential top 5 players of their position for the next 10 years.

Honestly, I love your write ups, but this is where I feel people get tunnel vision. Noel has a chance to be a franchise player. He has lower floor but so what, you don't win squat in this league without a legit franchise player, and having a set up like ours won't accomplish that. If Noel turns out to be for real, we'd instantly have a legit shot at competiting for the East crown by '15-'16. You do that every day of the week and twice on sunday. You don't force a need, high floor, low ceiling pick, you take the best guy on the board. I think we should be looking at moving up for Noel, or taking Bennett over Porter for that very reason, I think Porter is the third best option long term in this draft, and honestly, a Porter pick essentially short circuits a chance to win it all unless you can draw a free agent stud. With Bennett, or Noel, you may be able to skip over that franchise player free agent, and already be set with Noel or Bennett, then you can fix that SF need with less cap money, or a great draft day selection. Players of Porters quality are far more frequently available as FA's, and in slots 5-15 on draft day than guys like Noel or Bennett.

[Zonkerbl]

YODA update with all athletic test info (available) added. Here's the top 10:

1. Oladipo
2. Zeller
3. Noel
4. McLemore
5. Porter
6. Adams
7. Bennett
8. Burke
9. Olynyk
10. Carter-Williams

Oladipo looks like a worthy top pick. His final YODA rating is about the same as Ray Allen (JR), Patrick Ewing (SR), Jordan (SO), Chris Paul (FR), Ty Lawson (JR). The only guy in the database with a rating this good that was a bust: Michael Beasley. Hansbrough's final rating was close, but a notch below, and he's at least a useful role player.

Zeller looks like a solid 2nd pick in most drafts.

At 3, the Wizards will be able to choose between several players who rate in YODA as being worth a top 5 pick.

Unlike some others, I don't think Oladipo has the size to play SF regularly in the NBA. His standing reach would be well-below average for a SF, although his athleticism would still be outstanding. He'd still rate as the top pick if I evaluate him as a SF, but I think he (and his future team) would be happier if he's a SG.

This is why I was asking about Oladipo vs. Porter vs. Bennett vs. Zeller, Bennett mostly because the bullets forever argument seems to be exclusively about Porter vs. Bennett. According to Yoda, we should take Zeller, which of course I totally agree with since he's from IU.

[Ruzious]

Can one of you draft experts enlighten me on why Alex Oriakhi isn't a bigger prospect? It seems like he doesn't even have a shot at being drafted in the 2nd round anymore, and I can't figure out why. I admit I'm biased because I'm a Mizzou fan, but I've tried really hard to look past that and analyze him objectively, and I think I'm doing a good job at that, but at the same time, I still think he's a phenomenal prospect. So what am I missing? Please, someone explain to me what's missing from his game.

I am not a paid expert, but Oriakhi's numbers as a rebounder are off the chain. He had effective moments at U Conn and Mizzou. However, Muscala dominated him and the Tigers fizzled in the NCAAs. How is his defense? Are there off court issues? Gotta be a reason Oriakhi is not higher.

I haven't seen him in more than a year, but he was an excellent defender at UConn - and I thought his D was a key their NCAA championship team. He and Drummond were in a bad situation after Kemba left and the coaching situation fell apart.

I think Muscala's measurements pushed him up to the 1st round.

[nuposse04]

Can one of you draft experts enlighten me on why Alex Oriakhi isn't a bigger prospect? It seems like he doesn't even have a shot at being drafted in the 2nd round anymore, and I can't figure out why. I admit I'm biased because I'm a Mizzou fan, but I've tried really hard to look past that and analyze him objectively, and I think I'm doing a good job at that, but at the same time, I still think he's a phenomenal prospect. So what am I missing? Please, someone explain to me what's missing from his game.

Funny you should mention him because YODA has him as a late 1st round pick. His size is fine for a PF (9-0 standing reach). He's slow, but strong. Not a great leaper, but good reach and good strength would help compensate for that.

His production was good. Extremely efficient -- .639 2pt% so he finishes well inside. Good FT% suggests he may be a competent mid-range jump shooter in the NBA. Good rebounds and blocks.

DX doesn't even have him in their top 100. Wow.

Speaking of guys no one's talking about, who knows something about Arsalan Kazemi?

I take it you saw DX's tweets? I watched him in a few games, seemed like a glue guy. Checked the stats on him:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... emi-1.html

4 year senior who took TWO 3 pointers his entire career. I don't know what to make of that. He's 23, not sure how much better he'd get but I think he's going to go undrafted but probably worthy of a camp invite.

I almost want us to bring him in so we can continue our international marketability

[Nivek]

Question for Oladipo supporters: Other than his efficiency this year, was there anything other than his athleticism that makes you think he can be a big scorer in the NBA?

We're talking about a guy who only fired off 8 shots a game despite his efficiency.

You can't trust the longball stats at all. He made 30 threes the whole year. That sample size is terrible. So there isn't any evidence to suggest he's a great shooter.

That'd be OKAY because slashing twos can be very effective ala D-Wade, but then you look at his free throw rate--3.6 free throw attempts a game as a JUNIOR? That doesn't speak well of dominant slashing ability. Wade averaged 7.5 FTA a game and averaged over 20 PPG as a sophmore. Harden averaged over 7.7 a game as a soph and he could actually shoot.

Not saying Dipo is going to be either of those guys, but 3.6?

And he's barely shooting the ball? He has a negative assist to turnover ratio as well.

I really don't even think he's worth taking in the top 10 to be honest. Nothing statistically supports him being all that good at anything other than defense.

So, other than Oladipo making his shots and his athleticism, what makes me think he'll be able to score in the NBA?

Hmm. Not much coming to mind.

Out of curiosity, why are you using per game stats? Per minute numbers are better. Oladipo played just 28.5 minutes per game this season.

He used 15.9 possessions per 40 minutes, which is on the low side, but still more possessions than junior SGs like Vince Carter and Latrell Sprewell.

He took 5.1 FTs per 40 minutes, which is the same number per 40 attempted by Ben Gordon (JR) and Vince Carter (JR). About the same as Ray Allen took as a junior. As much or more than: Nick Young (JR), Dion Waiters (SO), Ben McLemore, Michael Redd (JR), Jason Richardson (SO), Sprewell (SR), Jordan (FR)...

Then layer on the defense, rebounding, athleticism and it suggests a guy who should be able to contribute in many ways in the NBA, including scoring.

[Upper Decker]

Okay let's play who's who (comparing sophomore season's, both from BCS conferences)

Player A
6-8 200lbs 16.2ppg, 7.5rpg, 2.7apg, 1.8spg, 0.9bpg .480FG%, .422 3p%
Player B
6-7 217lbs 16.2ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.4apg, 2.5spg, 0.5bpg .475FG%, .396 3p%

Here's hint #1.
Player A was very average athletically in college. Player B was very athletic in college.

Still stumped?

Here's hint #2.
Both Player A and Player B had very poor shot mechanics, which are nearly identical. In both instances draft pundits said it doesn't matter because if they're just consistent with their bad form it'll consistently go in at the pro level.

Still stumped?

Player A - Otto Porter
Player B - Ronnie Freakin Brewer

Except for the fact that Ronnie Brewer was vastly better athletically than Porter they're virtually the same exact prospect.

[Nivek]

I take it you saw DX's tweets? I watched him in a few games, seemed like a glue guy. Checked the stats on him:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... emi-1.html

4 year senior who took TWO 3 pointers his entire career. I don't know what to make of that. He's 23, not sure how much better he'd get but I think he's going to go undrafted but probably worthy of a camp invite.

I almost want us to bring him in so we can continue our international marketability

My Twitter has been off the past few days. Kazemi rates in a virtual tie with Oriakhi -- he's the name under Oriakhi in my spreadsheet.

[rockymac52]

I am not a paid expert, but Oriakhi's numbers as a rebounder are off the chain. He had effective moments at U Conn and Mizzou. However, Muscala dominated him and the Tigers fizzled in the NCAAs. How is his defense? Are there off court issues? Gotta be a reason Oriakhi is not higher.

Can one of you draft experts enlighten me on why Alex Oriakhi isn't a bigger prospect? It seems like he doesn't even have a shot at being drafted in the 2nd round anymore, and I can't figure out why. I admit I'm biased because I'm a Mizzou fan, but I've tried really hard to look past that and analyze him objectively, and I think I'm doing a good job at that, but at the same time, I still think he's a phenomenal prospect. So what am I missing? Please, someone explain to me what's missing from his game.

Funny you should mention him because YODA has him as a late 1st round pick. His size is fine for a PF (9-0 standing reach). He's slow, but strong. Not a great leaper, but good reach and good strength would help compensate for that.

His production was good. Extremely efficient -- .639 2pt% so he finishes well inside. Good FT% suggests he may be a competent mid-range jump shooter in the NBA. Good rebounds and blocks.

DX doesn't even have him in their top 100. Wow.

Speaking of guys no one's talking about, who knows something about Arsalan Kazemi?

Exactly. Thank you. This is what I'm talking about. There have been absolutely no off the court issues from my knowledge, at least since he got to Mizzou. He's been a team first, stand up guy.

Arguably the best part is that he has proven that he can accept a smaller role and still be very effective, as was the case at UCONN. He was never a go-to offensive threat for UCONN, he only got his points from offensive rebounds and the like. He had to earn every basket. Mizzou fed him the ball more, and allowed him to demonstrate that he can create his own shot as well, which is great. But seeing as he's not even in some people's top 100 right now, it looks like if he ever makes it to the NBA, he's not going to get many looks on offense again. But at least he's already proven that he'll be perfectly fine getting his own looks from offensive rebounds.

Maybe he doesn't have as much star potential as some "sleepers" in the 2nd round, but he seems very NBA-ready, and a lock to be an effective role player off the bench. I feel confident in saying that he'd be better than Vesely and Singleton from day one, not that that's saying much.

Defensively, he's not as crazy efficient as he is on offense, but he's still very capable. This past season he was playing center, whereas he's probably better fitted for PF at the next level given his height. But the good news is he still held his own against college centers. He also defends in the post excellently, whereas his weakness on defense is against spot up shooters, which he won't face very often in the NBA at his position. In fact, the last two years at UCONN he was actually great against spot up shooters. He was a dominant defensive player at UCONN (against PFs), and merely a good defensive player at Mizzou (against centers).

Biggest knock is probably his performance this past season against other NBA caliber big men. Some of his less productive nights happened to come against the likes of Muscala, Iverson, Buckner, and Young. Go back a couple years ago and look at what Oriakhi did as a sophomore against NBA caliber big men. 15 points 17 rebounds against Draymond Green. 18 points 11 rebounds against Terrence Jones. 11 points 21 rebounds against Tristan Thompson.

But the good news is that even if he had a down night, he still tended to play efficiently. So maybe he only scored 8 points and grabbed 7 boards, but he still likely shot over 50%. And seeing as he'd be a 2nd round pick and be a bench player at best in the short-term, is that really that big of a deal? NBA teams wouldn't be drafting Oriakhi hoping he'd be a star putting up 15+ PPG, they'd be drafting him hoping he could come off the bench and get some big offensive boards and put backs, while holding his own defensively.

[Nivek]

If I was confident no one would draft him, I'd sign Oriakhi after the draft. With a 9-0 reach, he has sufficient length to be a backup C and/or PF in the NBA. His agility scores were adequate for a center.

[Ruzious]

Okay let's play who's who (comparing sophomore season's, both from BCS conferences)

Player A
6-8 200lbs 16.2ppg, 7.5rpg, 2.7apg, 1.8spg, 0.9bpg .480FG%, .422 3p%
Player B
6-7 217lbs 16.2ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.4apg, 2.5spg, 0.5bpg .475FG%, .396 3p%

Here's hint #1.
Player A was very average athletically in college. Player B was very athletic in college.

Still stumped?

Here's hint #2.
Both Player A and Player B had very poor shot mechanics, which are nearly identical. In both instances draft pundits said it doesn't matter because if they're just consistent with their bad form it'll consistently go in at the pro level.

Still stumped?

Player A - Otto Porter
Player B - Ronnie Freakin Brewer

Except for the fact that Ronnie Brewer was vastly better athletically than Porter they're virtually the same exact prospect.

Honestly, I loved Ronnie F Brewer as a prospect. And I think he's been a useful player who's helped his teams win - he's a great versatile defender and doesn't make mistakes on offense. But the physical defect he had with his elbow I think has been a major part of his undoing as a pro.

[sfam]

I want Porter over Noel. I think the Nene/Okafor front court is good for a few more seasons and the money that opens up can get us a decent free agent big. Guys have gotten good rebounding/defensive c's in free agency the last few off-seasons.

I think Porter is being underrated in his scoring potential. With his length, shooting and defense we'll have a core of potential top 5 players of their position for the next 10 years.

Honestly, I love your write ups, but this is where I feel people get tunnel vision. Noel has a chance to be a franchise player. He has lower floor but so what, you don't win squat in this league without a legit franchise player, and having a set up like ours won't accomplish that. If Noel turns out to be for real, we'd instantly have a legit shot at competiting for the East crown by '15-'16. You do that every day of the week and twice on sunday. You don't force a need, high floor, low ceiling pick, you take the best guy on the board. I think we should be looking at moving up for Noel, or taking Bennett over Porter for that very reason, I think Porter is the third best option long term in this draft, and honestly, a Porter pick essentially short circuits a chance to win it all unless you can draw a free agent stud. With Bennett, or Noel, you may be able to skip over that franchise player free agent, and already be set with Noel or Bennett, then you can fix that SF need with less cap money, or a great draft day selection. Players of Porters quality are far more frequently available as FA's, and in slots 5-15 on draft day than guys like Noel or Bennett.

+1
This. But without the injury risk, you stay and just roll the dice with Bennett. We really do need another star. I'm not sold that Porter has that in him.

[sashae]

I'll admit to being baffled by the interest in Bennett. The guy was absolutely allergic to defense in college -- totally disinterested -- and while he shows great bounce and athleticism in college, I don't know that that's fully going to translate into the pros. Porter is such a good, obvious fit for this team that I can't see going any other way unless Noel is available.

[tontoz]

Okay let's play who's who (comparing sophomore season's, both from BCS conferences)

Player A
6-8 200lbs 16.2ppg, 7.5rpg, 2.7apg, 1.8spg, 0.9bpg .480FG%, .422 3p%
Player B
6-7 217lbs 16.2ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.4apg, 2.5spg, 0.5bpg .475FG%, .396 3p%

Here's hint #1.
Player A was very average athletically in college. Player B was very athletic in college.

Still stumped?

Here's hint #2.
Both Player A and Player B had very poor shot mechanics, which are nearly identical. In both instances draft pundits said it doesn't matter because if they're just consistent with their bad form it'll consistently go in at the pro level.

Still stumped?

Player A - Otto Porter
Player B - Ronnie Freakin Brewer

Except for the fact that Ronnie Brewer was vastly better athletically than Porter they're virtually the same exact prospect.

Porter is getting 2.7 more rebounds per game and is shooting 12% better from the line.

[GhostsOfGil]

Where are you guys seeing star potential in Bennett? He's an explosive leaper that runs the floor like a bull. His biggest strength is his dribble drive. How effective is that going to be against NBA 4s? How many undersized PFs reach star status? These arnt rhetorical questions, I'm seriously wondering.

[Zonkerbl]

For the lulz:

https://twitter.com/GeorgetownHoops/sta ... 49/photo/1

[Ruzious]

Remember that Bennett is also an injury risk - or at least injury-prone. He had the shoulder problem this season, and he also didn't finish his junior and senior HS seasons because of injuries. There's a pattern there. For many reasons, I don't think Bennett will be a serious consideration for the Wiz - one being that they seem to want all choir boys. Bennett does not come across as a choir boy. Then again, I was sure they wouldn't pick Vesely until it became obvious they would.

[Nivek]

I liked Brewer as a prospect as well. That physical defect may be a key difference -- Brewer had an actual physical problem; Porter does not.

That said, citing one example doesn't really make a persuasive case (at least not to me). I think I've posted Porter's similars, according to my statistical doppleganger machine, but here they are again:

- Will Barton (SO)
- Jared Dudley (SO)
- Bradley Beal (FR)
- Chase Budinger (FR)
- Wesley Johnson (JR)
- Jimmy Butler (JR)
- Gordon Hayward (SO)
- Greg Monroe (FR)
- Antawn Jamison (FR)
- Caron Butler (SO)
- James Anderson (SO)
- Ron Artest (SO)
- Ronnie Brewer (JR)
- Tony Allen (FR)

Moving down the list into the reasonably close, but not quite as similar range are these guys: Kawhi Leonard (SO), Gilbert Arenas (FR), LaMarcus Aldridge (SO), Tayshaun Prince (JR), and Grant Hill (SR). Joe Johnson. Quentin Richardson.