Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[AFM]

I have to admit Bennett has a lot of talent but not sure if it will translate into the nba. What is his natural position? And does anyone think he has all star potential?

Apparently, Chad Ford does.

He has bust written all over him i think he could be a decent back up power forward in nba but that's not what wizards need. He look out of shape and he takes a lot of bad shots we don't need another Dray on this team.

He's not out of shape. That's just the way he's built, like a tank. He's an excellent athlete.

[tontoz]

Kev, how does Bennett compare to Blake Griffin as a prospect?

Code: Select all

PER40   Bennett Griffin Griffin
Class   FR      SO      FR
Min     27.1    33.3    28.4
efg     .580    .657    .568
2p%     .587    .659    .571
3p%     .375    .375    .000
FT%     .701    .590    .589
eOrtg   117     120     112
Usg     19.1    22.4    19.0
Reb     12.0    17.3    12.8
Ast     1.4     2.7     2.6
Stl     1.0     1.3     1.4
Blk     1.8     1.4     1.2
Tov     2.7     4.0     3.2
PF      3.4     3.1     3.5
Pts     23.7    27.3    20.7


Very comparable as freshman. Bennett was a bit more efficient -- mainly by making his free throws. Griffin got more assists and steals; Bennett blocked more shots. It would have been nice if Bennett could have gone to the combine.

Wow. Good stuff there.

[The Consiglieri]

I don't know how expecting significant improvement in defensive effort and execution from Bennett could be termed anything other than a huge gamble.

Yes, it's a gamble. No question about it. Bennett's floor is lower than Porter's. But the gamble has upside too. Bennett's ceiling is also higher than Porter's. Consiglieri makes a powerful argument that Porter really lacks the "it" factor to be anything more than an ordinary role player. You can always find guys like that with the MLE. Why use the #3 overall pick on one?

I readily cede that the work ethic issue might be an insurmountable hurdle for Bennett. It's why I say more research needs to be done. But if Bennett gets ruled out, I still don't love Porter at #3. I'd take Oladipo. (Or, preferably, trade the pick.)

I pretty much agree with you across the board. To be honest, the only option I didn't mention that I'd add is Oladipo at slot, who i think is a better option than Porter because of his upside. Yes it would suck to be rolling with 2 two guards, but it's better to be rolling with 3 guards who are all great players who defend well, and can really drive a team crazy on the offensive side (slashing Wall, shooting Beal, shooting and slashing Oladipo), then add bigs at the 4 and 5, and mix in some minutes for a nice sizable three, than to aim for average or above average, and settle for that.

If I could be reasonably sure that Porter's floor was good to very good, rather than above average, I'd be more interested, but right now I think Porter's floor is average, and his ceiling is probably above average or good. That's just not good enough for me. When you're celing is low, and your floor is just reasonable, why the hell would do that at #3?

My new interests are:

#1: Trade up for Noel
#2: Stay at slot and take Bennett or Oladipo
#3: Trade down with Minnesota for their '13 pick, and "14 #1 unprotected (they're rumored to want to trade up for Oladipo)
#4: Trade down slightly if someone wants to slightly move up to secure "their guy", and take whomever's there between Porter, Oladipo, McCollum and Len, picking up whatever sweetner we can (maybe a '15 #1 that's only top 3 protected, and their 2nd rounder this year).

The least attractive option to me is staying at #3 and taking Porter. I'd even rather have McLemore than do that.

[sfam]

I have to admit Bennett has a lot of talent but not sure if it will translate into the nba. What is his natural position? And does anyone think he has all star potential?

Apparently, Chad Ford does.

And the Bennett glass half empty compels me to add that ford said that Bennett has the best chance to be an all-star, not that he has [significant amounts of] all-star potential. The wording is weird about the "this time last year" but I took the gist of it to mean that he thought that Beal and Davis were much more "sure" all-stars than Bennett.

Agreed. He's in essence saying that the top of this draft is more likely slated as borderline all-stars. This isn't a shocking revelation. I love it that Ford puts Beal up with Davis though, and his comment validates that Bennett does have a higher upside than a low risk pick like Porter.

Just watching Bennett drive, I have a hard time believing that skill won't translate to the NBA. He has a terrific first step and with his size, athleticism and wingspan, flat out powers to the rim similar to LeBron or Griffin.

[GhostsOfGil]

He has the same wingspan as Otto Porter, 7'1". Way more explosive though.

Those measurements were taken in 2011 which is good news too.

[GhostsOfGil]

Kev, how does Bennett compare to Blake Griffin as a prospect?

Code: Select all

PER40   Bennett Griffin Griffin
Class   FR      SO      FR
Min     27.1    33.3    28.4
efg     .580    .657    .568
2p%     .587    .659    .571
3p%     .375    .375    .000
FT%     .701    .590    .589
eOrtg   117     120     112
Usg     19.1    22.4    19.0
Reb     12.0    17.3    12.8
Ast     1.4     2.7     2.6
Stl     1.0     1.3     1.4
Blk     1.8     1.4     1.2
Tov     2.7     4.0     3.2
PF      3.4     3.1     3.5
Pts     23.7    27.3    20.7


Very comparable as freshman. Bennett was a bit more efficient -- mainly by making his free throws. Griffin got more assists and steals; Bennett blocked more shots. It would have been nice if Bennett could have gone to the combine.

Awesome thanks for posting kev

[thricethefun]

I will be so pissed if we pass up on Mclemore if he's there at 3.

[tontoz]

My thought is, outside of Wall & Beal, I'm not sure it makes sense to give too much consideration to guys that may or may not be here long term.

Exactly. If i am taking Bennett over Porter it is because i think he is a better fit with Wall/Beal, which he may well be. It isn't because of Webster/Ariza.

[Dat2U]

With our coach and history of player development, particularly raw bigs, you can't take Bennett over Porter. You need to pick the guy who already knows how to play. Same as we did with Beal.

I've seen this argument floated a few times in this thread and I disagree with it completely. This isn't two years ago. We have expunged all the knuckleheads and lazy players from the roster already. This team now has a great attitude and support system in place. Guys come here, work hard, and buy into the team.

What good is it to add veterans with work ethic if you don't use them to teach young players how to be pros? This is exactly the reason why we added Nene, Okafor and Ariza in the first place. This is why San Antonio can take retreads like Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw and get them to buy in.

I think we are the perfect team to help mold a guy like Anthony Bennett.

I think were kidding ourselves if we think the player development issues are solved simply because we've gotten rid of the knuckleheads.

Both Vesely & Seraphin had two of the biggest regressions from '11-'12 to last season I've seen from recent draft picks. Were talking falling off the cliff type performances. That should be concerning IMO. I'm not ready to see THIS front office take a chance on drafting a player with questionable motivations just yet.

[nuposse04]

I will be so pissed if we pass up on Mclemore if he's there at 3.

why? He's a SG, we don't need one. I hear people saying the same thing in regards to Porter, that we don't "need" one but he can be a substantial upgrade over what we have. Or an upgrade at all arguably.

[Dat2U]

I have to admit Bennett has a lot of talent but not sure if it will translate into the nba. What is his natural position? And does anyone think he has all star potential?

Apparently, Chad Ford does.

You don't draft Bennett as a SF. He's a PF. He can play some 3 in a big lineup, but really he's a PF, size issues and all (which are mitigated by his wingspan).

Is it really? It's been said a million times, but wingspan is not the best indicator of how effectively bigs will defend on the next level.

I haven't seen anything public showing Bennett's standing reach measurements.

[fishercob]

Kev, how does Bennett compare to Blake Griffin as a prospect?

Code: Select all

PER40   Bennett Griffin Griffin
Class   FR      SO      FR
Min     27.1    33.3    28.4
efg     .580    .657    .568
2p%     .587    .659    .571
3p%     .375    .375    .000
FT%     .701    .590    .589
eOrtg   117     120     112
Usg     19.1    22.4    19.0
Reb     12.0    17.3    12.8
Ast     1.4     2.7     2.6
Stl     1.0     1.3     1.4
Blk     1.8     1.4     1.2
Tov     2.7     4.0     3.2
PF      3.4     3.1     3.5
Pts     23.7    27.3    20.7


Very comparable as freshman. Bennett was a bit more efficient -- mainly by making his free throws. Griffin got more assists and steals; Bennett blocked more shots. It would have been nice if Bennett could have gone to the combine.

Thank you for posting this, Nivek. I'll add that Griffin was a pretty sucky defender as a college player as well. He made no effort to rotate whatsoever, presumably to avoid fouling.

Do you have a PPA ranking for freshman Griffin versus Bennett? I'm curious to see how they compare after factoring the strength of schedule.

Interesting indeed. And I do recall those same discussions here about Griffin's defense. At the same time, I don't think Bennett's the athlete that Griffin is -- or close to it. I'd expect him to be more of a Paul Millsap type than like Blake in terms of style and overall impact.

Yes, it's a gamble. No question about it. Bennett's floor is lower than Porter's. But the gamble has upside too. Bennett's ceiling is also higher than Porter's. Consiglieri makes a powerful argument that Porter really lacks the "it" factor to be anything more than an ordinary role player. You can always find guys like that with the MLE. Why use the #3 overall pick on one?

It's all about what Boeheim was saying about Porter. He's good at everything. Everything. He can help you in so many different ways. He;s not a primary option on offense, but he'll make your offense better. That fits our team so well. He doesn't have the "it" of superstars. But he has the "it" of winners on really good teams like Deng, Kawhi, Marion, Tayshaun, Bobby Jones (throwback alert), Detlef Schrempf, Gerald Wallace. etc.

[nate33]

Apparently, Chad Ford does.

You don't draft Bennett as a SF. He's a PF. He can play some 3 in a big lineup, but really he's a PF, size issues and all (which are mitigated by his wingspan).

Is it really? It's been said a million times, but wingspan is not the best indicator of how effectively bigs will defend on the next level.

I haven't seen anything public showing Bennett's standing reach measurements.

I would also like to see his standing reach measurements. Presumably, teams will get this data in the individual workouts. Hopefully it gets leaked somewhere.

[The Consiglieri]

I have to admit Bennett has a lot of talent but not sure if it will translate into the nba. What is his natural position? And does anyone think he has all star potential?

Apparently, Chad Ford does.

And the Bennett glass half empty compels me to add that ford said that Bennett has the best chance to be an all-star, not that he has [significant amounts of] all-star potential. The wording is weird about the "this time last year" but I took the gist of it to mean that he thought that Beal and Davis were much more "sure" all-stars than Bennett.

he's also said in multiple chats that Bennett has a very good chance at being the best player in this draft. Not just an all star, but the best player, a few years down the road. Never have come across him saying that about porter, in any of the chats, whether referring to what scouts have said, or his own judgment.

[Zonkerbl]

Darnit, Bob Zoellick. Why must you confuse my spelling so?

[Zonkerbl]

How does Porter compare to Detlef Shrempf, or Andrei Kirilenko?

[verbal8]

Should we trade up to number 2?

Most projections have a player we don't need(McLemore or Noel) taken there. If we "have" to take Noel we do it. If McLemore is the top rated guy at 3(Noel and Porter gone), it is time to work the phones. If that doesn't work take Oladipo or Bennett.

If we happen to miss out on Porter cause of the cavs moving up to number 2 would secure us of getting Noel.

If it is cheap, I could see the justification. The Magic might be willing to do it for a small incentive like Booker or the 37th pick.

Moving back looks like it could have some good options. The first incentive I would go for would be a 2014 1st, but as we have discussed a lot of them are tied up in protection and likely won't be available. If the Suns would part with the 30th pick that would be good assuming Len or Bennett was still available. The Twolves have the 9th and 26th pick and are rumored to be interested in Oladipo, probably also would be interested in McLemore.

[dobrojim]

Here's the thing with Oladipo though fishercob--you can't say he'll do anything for sure other than take smart shots and defend. There's not any evidence towards him being much of anything offensively. I don't know how that comes even close to what Porter could be for us.

Even Bennett is a better option than Oladipo.

Can you really say that Porter will do anything for sure other than take smart shots and defend? In fact, as far as taking smart shots and defending goes, I'm inclined to say that while Porter may be great at both, Oladipo is even better.

Furthermore, Oladipo actually posted an ORtg of about 125, compared to Porter's 122. Porter did this on a 24% usage rate, while Oladipo had a 22% usage rate. Both numbers are pretty similar at the end of the day. I suppose it's fair to say that Oladipo was surrounded with more offensive threats, but it's not like the rest of the Georgetown team was scrubs.

You have to take Office Dipo in context, though. Indiana was the 2nd most efficient offense in college basketball with 4 out of their top five 5 players had a TS% of 60% or more. Watford and Hulls were shooting a combined .46% from 3-land on more than eight attempts a game.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sch ... /2013.html

I don't have time to get into it now, but they ran a spread offense and found the open man with about 55 total FGA taken per game, so Dipo did what he was supposed to with the second highest usage rate on the team by a hair. He would have easily put up more gaudy numbers in another system or with less efficient options around him.

I think you're both overlooking something, and that's that if we drafted either Oladipo or Porter, they wouldn't be our go-to option on offense. At the very most they'd be our 3rd option behind Wall and Beal. If we draft either of them, we're going to expect them to keep doing what they did at college offensively, as in, taking smart shots, hitting from long range when they're open, grabbing offensive rebounds, cutting to the hoop, and scoring in transition. They're actually very similar in a lot of ways offensively, as neither fits the mold of your prototypical go-to scorer or a guy who can create their own shot.

that's not how I'm remembering our offense (but I could be wrong)

While Wall clearly is the dominant ball handler, there were still many times when
the offense would start by dumping it low or at high post to either
Nene or Okafor, then motion/cuts off of that.

In our best games we were getting lots of assists as a team although
Wall would almost always have the most.

I do agree with your overall point that neither VO nor OP would be expected
to come in a create offense on their own to a significant degree. We'd want
them to play D and take smart ie make-able shots. I think either could be
good fits in our offensive scheme.

[Deeptu McPullup]

I have concern with both guys in that, despite all the glue-gooped oohs-n-ahs (or would that be "ooze-n-ahs"?), we don't end up being that much more effective than if we just rolled with a designated hitter of a squat-n-plop corner 3 man.

The corner 3 is the best shot in basketball with Webster giving an outright silly 1.8 PPS from the right corner. It's an easy, low risk release valve that sets the stage for "kind of a big deal around here" guys to create high percentage rimshots as you preemptively put paid to the slinking charlatans who'd otherwise clog the keyhole with double teams.

Beal is elite in the left pocket, but you'd be remiss to have him hanging a hammock there and taking a nap for 36 minutes. I can't help but think we can get by with a specialist at the other wing slot and commit our resources better up front. There's a reason the mid-range game is lamented as a lost art by the old timers.

Are Dipo or Porter going to generate better offensive looks and final outcomes than we could have gotten with a cheap specialist who plays at least respectable defense? Maybe, but I expect the drop off there is less than the difference between the bigs we're going to have and what we might be able to do up front if we used the third pick to bait the hook.

It's an excellent point. Webster & Ariza did more than adequate job at SF last season. My response is, how sustainable is that level of performance from year to year? Is it really realistic to expect Webster to duplicate 1.8 PPS from the right corner year after year? Ariza also shot very well last year for the most part, above his career average. Can we also expect that type of performance again?

Secondly, Webster is a UFA. While he made his intentions clear about wanting to stay in DC, what if another team makes him a better offer? What happens if we choose to go in another direction in the draft b/c we believe Webster/Ariza will be a part of our core, but we lose Webster in FA? Ariza is only signed through next season. Is he someone that we want or can expect to keep long term? I have my doubts. There are unanswered questions about the SF spot which potentially could be resolved by drafting Porter. Is Porter posting a 1.8 PPS from the right corner next year, unlikely, but defensively, on the boards and decision making wise, he offers a certain amount of length & versatility that Webster isn't going to provide us with.

My thought is, outside of Wall & Beal, I'm not sure it makes sense to give too much consideration to guys that may or may not be here long term. The only certainty is that the Wizards are building around Wall, Beal and whatever we get out of the 3rd pick (whether rookie or vet through trade). I'd focus on making sure those 3 pieces fit, and worry about adding the complimentary pieces around those 3 after the draft. There's too much importance in getting the 3rd pick right, that worrying about how 2nd or 3rd tier options and impending free agents fit into the overall scheme may take us away from the key overall point. The Wizards need to get this draft right.

It's really late here so I'm not going to elaborate, but I'm not talking about Ariza and Webster specifically. The point is that there are so many guys within range of them who can be acquired with minimum assets, that we could come up with something at least passable if we lost both those guys and had to scramble with just the MLE (Dunleavy and Wesley Johnson?).

My point is more that we might be chasing our tails, clogging the spacing up and not utilizing the floor properly in our attack by getting a guy who's calling card is mid range, motion and ball movement while also dedicating major assets to do so. We'll be more versatile and can run more complicated sets, but in the end I wonder if it's actually more effective that. Are we doubling down on Bishops and Rooks without Bishops to pincer? Or maybe we're now compelled to take Beal and turn him into a Bishop when he could have been more (kind of like Batum having a more dynamic role now). Are these guys going to get in the way of one another and create easy double team opportunities for our enemies against post scorers and dribble penetration? While they certainly can shoot, to optimize the talents of Porter or Dipo, it seems it creates even more of a need for a stretch 4 to clean things out than we had before.

Anyway, roster construction is a zero sum game, so there's opportunity cost to everything we do. If we had to plug two spots at either center or power forward in any given offseason with just the MLE, we'd be in trouble. I'm just wondering if utilizing what Dipo or Porter brings optimally actually helps us enough to justify it in comparison with running an ubiquitous, turn-key, 3-N-D guy.

#3: Trade down with Minnesota for their '13 pick, and "14 #1 unprotected (they're rumored to want to trade up for Oladipo)

There you go again, man.

As a draftnik who wants a 2014 pick, you should really look at the future picks that are already out.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/ ... mmary/2014

Minnesota, Sacramento, Philly, Detroit, Charlotte, Portland and Dallas can't trade their own 2014 picks due to the Stepien Rule (Charlotte could trade a top 8 protected Detroit pick). Almost none of those picks will actually be conferred due to protection, but they still can't make a trade.

[sfam]

If we happen to miss out on Porter cause of the cavs moving up to number 2 would secure us of getting Noel.

If it is cheap, I could see the justification. The Magic might be willing to do it for a small incentive like Booker or the 37th pick.

Moving back looks like it could have some good options. The first incentive I would go for would be a 2014 1st, but as we have discussed a lot of them are tied up in protection and likely won't be available. If the Suns would part with the 30th pick that would be good assuming Len or Bennett was still available. The Twolves have the 9th and 26th pick and are rumored to be interested in Oladipo, probably also would be interested in McLemore.

The #37 and Booker seems a bit too expensive for me. Singleton or Ves, sure. I wouldn't mind doing the Phoenix trade for the #30, but wouldn't want the Twolves deal, as there is a dropoff after the top 5 or 6.

If we could trade with Phoenix for the #30, use the #5 on Bennet, and then use that to package our picks to potentially get Larkin, that'd be ideal. I just don't see much movement happening among the top 5 picks or so.