Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[Dat2U]

When you have a top 3 pick, I think it's a mistake to draft a guy that high and hope that they buy into the team concept. It's one thing to spend a late lottery or mid to late 1st rounder on a high potential guy like McGee with the hopes that they'll mature and grow into a legit player, its a whole 'nother issue to expend such a valuable resource on a guy with not only a lack of awareness off the ball, but potential effort & maturity issues.

Top 3 picks simply shouldn't have effort issues or be so raw in many aspects of the game. If they do, they usually bust or don't even get drafted that high.

I'm not sold on the upside of Anthony Bennett either. He's a 6-7 PF. Where's the upside in that? Where's the elite length or size for position? Where's the elite skillset? Where's the elite work ethic? When people say he's got upside, upside to become what exactly???

[Nivek]

When I look at Len vs. Adams, Adams' physical and on court numbers look very similar. Adams is only a few months younger than Len, but apparently started basketball kind of late and only has one year of college ball vs. Len's two years. Coupled with Len's injury, I'm not sure I understand why virtually everyone has Adams so much lower than Len. I saw Len play a few times, a mixed bag to me, though clearly with potential. I've only seen Adams highlights. Maybe someone that watches a lot of college ball can fill me in. Adams seems like he could be a real value in a trade down scenario.

In YODA, Adams rates WAY ahead of Len. Adams rates as a top 10 pick; Len as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. This could end up being a huge miss by YODA because of Len's reputed physical tools. His stats weren't very impressive, and he didn't even get measured at the combine. If those tools are real and he works hard, he could be a good pro. Based on the information that's available, I wouldn't pick Len in the top 15.

[hands11]

When you have a top 3 pick, I think it's a mistake to draft a guy that high and hope that they buy into the team concept. It's one thing to spend a late lottery or mid to late 1st rounder on a high potential guy like McGee with the hopes that they'll mature and grow into a legit player, its a whole 'nother issue to expend such a valuable resource on a guy with not only a lack of awareness off the ball, but potential effort & maturity issues.

Top 3 picks simply shouldn't have effort issues or be so raw in many aspects of the game. If they do, they usually bust or don't even get drafted that high.

I'm not sold on the upside of Anthony Bennett either. He's a 6-7 PF. Where's the upside in that? Where's the elite length or size for position? Where's the elite skillset? Where's the elite work ethic? When people say he's got upside, upside to become what exactly???

Agreed.

I started making up a board and he is already down in the 9-11 range for me and I havent placed Dennis Schroeder in the list yet. At least he projects to a Rondo type PG.

[stevemcqueen1]

Really good analysis, stevemcqueen. I don't usually read long posts but those last two on Bennett and Porter are a must read IMO.
As I said before, I will be happy with either. But I'm leaning towards Bennett more everyday.

Thanks, I think I'm in a similar place as you. I like both Porter and Bennett and would be happy with both. But Bennett scares me. There are classic red flags with him. I wish I could get inside Ernie and Wittman's head with Bennett, more so than any other prospect. If our interest in him is legit, I want to know what Wittman in particular thinks about his motor and all the raw parts of his game.

I want to know if at some point in the evaluation process Wittman has gone, "I've talked to him, I figured out how he ticks. I can coach him up on defense and teach him how to play off the ball in my system." If we draft him, I hope he's Wittman's guy. If Wittman endorses him, I'll be a lot less nervous about the pick.

[stevemcqueen1]

When I look at Len vs. Adams, Adams' physical and on court numbers look very similar. Adams is only a few months younger than Len, but apparently started basketball kind of late and only has one year of college ball vs. Len's two years. Coupled with Len's injury, I'm not sure I understand why virtually everyone has Adams so much lower than Len. I saw Len play a few times, a mixed bag to me, though clearly with potential. I've only seen Adams highlights. Maybe someone that watches a lot of college ball can fill me in. Adams seems like he could be a real value in a trade down scenario.

In YODA, Adams rates WAY ahead of Len. Adams rates as a top 10 pick; Len as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. This could end up being a huge miss by YODA because of Len's reputed physical tools. His stats weren't very impressive, and he didn't even get measured at the combine. If those tools are real and he works hard, he could be a good pro. Based on the information that's available, I wouldn't pick Len in the top 15.

That surprises me about Adams rating so high. His history of production looks really small and he never had any signature performances that screamed NBA ready. I watched the tourney game and said, alright I see the clear NBA size and strength and movement. But he looked totally raw. A lot of guys look like they came out too early, but Adams really really looks like he came out too early.

Maybe I'm being unfair to him. I didn't see him play as much as other top guys. But he seems like a huge project and a total projection at this point.

Though I do agree with you somewhat about Len. I think Len has a lot of warts to his game and I think he's soft whereas Adams definitely doesn't seem soft. I also do not like Len's injury.

[hands11]

Really good analysis, stevemcqueen. I don't usually read long posts but those last two on Bennett and Porter are a must read IMO.
As I said before, I will be happy with either. But I'm leaning towards Bennett more everyday.

Thanks, I think I'm in a similar place as you. I like both Porter and Bennett and would be happy with both. But Bennett scares me. There are classic red flags with him. I wish I could get inside Ernie and Wittman's head with Bennett, more so than any other prospect. If our interest in him is legit, I want to know what Wittman in particular thinks about his motor and all the raw parts of his game.

I want to know if at some point in the evaluation process Wittman has gone, "I've talked to him, I figured out how he ticks. I can coach him up on defense and teach him how to play off the ball in my system." If we draft him, I hope he's Wittman's guy. If Wittman endorses him, I'll be a lot less nervous about the pick.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1251880&p=35917571#p35917571

Got back and read this. The information you are seeking has been posted.

Listen to the Randy interview on your own. Take some notes. Listen for what names and comments he volunteers on his own vs answers to question he was asked.

I would read the tea leaves regarding info he gives on his own. Also answers he gives to open ended questions.

Sounds like he likes Len and VO. He starts ranting on about VO all on his own. Didn't mention Zeller on the same team. Gave Len plenty of positive comments. And you can't teach length.

And he describes wanting a player like CJM. Talks a good bit about needing back up for Wall and Beal that can score off the bench. Maybe that is VO. Maybe he is talking about CJM though he never mentions him.

Oh and for those that like reading the basketball gods messages.

Beal wears #3. He was picked #3. He rep'd the Wizard this draft and they moved up to #3. He can nail the 3. Thats #3 in back to back years.

You know who also wears #3 that is in the draft and fills a positions of need ? CJM .. Burke & Noel are also #3

But maybe is a numerical thing and they got their #3 out of the way and its time for #4 ... VO ?
That numbered jersey is open on the roster.

But, Three is the magic number.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU4pyiB-kq0[/youtube]

[Dark Faze]

I went back and looked at the full highlights of Derrick William vs Duke...even without the ridiculous shooting he was a much better prospect than Bennett. Just look at any highlights of Williams or Bennett and tell me Bennett looks more explosive or quicker than Derrick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia4bW797GLQ

Bennett reminds me of Booker. He won't be able to create much on his own and his man D is going to be rough but he'll rebound, block shots, and get offensive rebound.

I have no idea where people are seeing the upside offensively to think he has 20+ppg potential. Derrick Williams I saw it, not Bennett.

[sfam]

Do you feel Len would improve our offense up front? I do. Specially in the role I feel they are lacking it.

For me, I don't think they need to swing for a stud scorer. I think they need to add to get better. And that has as much to do with defense as offense. And it has to do with personality fit with the team. Everyone left, who is a core contributer, plays D. Or at least is focused on trying..I say that for Webby.

I think Nene, Okafor and Kevin provide plenty of offense against most teams for the post. Where I saw them struggle more was against length. Nene's would get out of sync. Kevin was mostly mid range in those situations. Okafor was solid but not great against length either so he would shoot from the key. Nene, Okafor and Booker, when we had them all healthy, could muscle pretty well for rebounds and play defense, but a 7-0 player that has center skills would have really rounded out that group perfectly. Someone who could score in the paint even against longer players. Noel is to light in the trunks for that.

To me, SF is filled until proven differently. They have a great combination there and they are vet experienced. I see no need to fix what isn't broken. Specially when there are other things broken.

At guard, they clearly have two holes...Wall and Beal back ups. Well there are players that can fill both those roles. J Jack would be perfect. In this draft. CJM or like Ive said, VO in a different way. If you go VO, you need to add another PG. Price isn't the answer. You need a Wolters, Pierre or vet.

Noel, Bennett and Otto are not at the top of the list of what they need, given my break down. And that puts me in the minority since those are the players most are thinking we should get. But I stand by my breakdown.

I'm not too enthralled with Len. If were still at #8 he would not be my choice (Zeller or CJM would). He already has issues with his ankles, and only seems partially interested in Bball. I certainly wouldn't advocate trading down to get him. If we want offense up front, Bennett is the guy.

[Dark Faze]

The best prospects in the draft offensively are CJM, Kelly Olynyk, and Trey Burke. I have no idea how anyone can watch film of Bennett and think he will be instant offensive in the NBA. The form on his jumpshot is slow, he's undersized and won't get by any NBA PF's off the dribble.

And that's with the assumption that his shooting transfers over. If it doesn't he won't be any better than Booker or Blair.

[sfam]

Really good analysis, stevemcqueen. I don't usually read long posts but those last two on Bennett and Porter are a must read IMO.
As I said before, I will be happy with either. But I'm leaning towards Bennett more everyday.

I echo this sentiment - really great stuff stevemcqueen. A fair and very insightful assessment of both Porter and Bennett.

[sfam]

Hands, I don't know how you can read much into that interview. Seriously, the speculation over that and EG's 3 player draft comment are way over the top. They just aren't going to be giving up much real info at this point.

[sfam]

The best prospects in the draft offensively are CJM, Kelly Olynyk, and Trey Burke. I have no idea how anyone can watch film of Bennett and think he will be instant offensive in the NBA. The form on his jumpshot is slow, he's undersized and won't get by any NBA PF's off the dribble.

And that's with the assumption that his shooting transfers over. If it doesn't he won't be any better than Booker or Blair.

Suffice to say many differ with you, including pros like Chad Ford. I think Bennett will be blowing by people in the NBA. Bennett's offense at its worse will be light years better than Booker's. That's a lazy comparison. Bennett looks like an elite finisher to most that have watched him.

[closg00]

Jobs in jeopardy: Jan Vesely hasn't shown the ability to transition to the NBA game and is positionless; he doesn't rebound or defend well enough to be a big and doesn't have the skill or touch to play out on the perimeter. He is now in serious danger of having his fourth-year team option declined this summer.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... on-wizards

I am confused, I thought Ves was guaranteed for the 13/14 season, is this not the case?

[hands11]

Do you feel Len would improve our offense up front? I do. Specially in the role I feel they are lacking it.

For me, I don't think they need to swing for a stud scorer. I think they need to add to get better. And that has as much to do with defense as offense. And it has to do with personality fit with the team. Everyone left, who is a core contributer, plays D. Or at least is focused on trying..I say that for Webby.

I think Nene, Okafor and Kevin provide plenty of offense against most teams for the post. Where I saw them struggle more was against length. Nene's would get out of sync. Kevin was mostly mid range in those situations. Okafor was solid but not great against length either so he would shoot from the key. Nene, Okafor and Booker, when we had them all healthy, could muscle pretty well for rebounds and play defense, but a 7-0 player that has center skills would have really rounded out that group perfectly. Someone who could score in the paint even against longer players. Noel is to light in the trunks for that.

To me, SF is filled until proven differently. They have a great combination there and they are vet experienced. I see no need to fix what isn't broken. Specially when there are other things broken.

At guard, they clearly have two holes...Wall and Beal back ups. Well there are players that can fill both those roles. J Jack would be perfect. In this draft. CJM or like Ive said, VO in a different way. If you go VO, you need to add another PG. Price isn't the answer. You need a Wolters, Pierre or vet.

Noel, Bennett and Otto are not at the top of the list of what they need, given my break down. And that puts me in the minority since those are the players most are thinking we should get. But I stand by my breakdown.

I'm not too enthralled with Len. If were still at #8 he would not be my choice (Zeller or CJM would). He already has issues with his ankles, and only seems partially interested in Bball. I certainly wouldn't advocate trading down to get him. If we want offense up front, Bennett is the guy.

He transferred to a US college instead of going the Euro route because he thought it through. He know he wanted to play in the NBA and he saw that as the best path. He wanted to get acclimated to America and learn the language. He took the path less traveled from what most Euros do. And if you listen to him talk, he now speaks English really well for someone that didn't a couple years ago. That going to help his transition a lot.

He also had elective surgery to ensure his ankle healed properly so he would have the best chance at a long NBA career. He wanted it to heal properly. He could have easily not had that surgery and done the combines where many think he would have shown well. I have even read where some believe he could have shown well enough to project #1 in the draft.

He sounds like a pretty mature heady young man to me that is making smart decisions that are focused on being a productive NBA player.

Can you say that about Bennett ?

I believe Len is a much better prospect then Bennett ... specially for the Wizards. And as other have mentioned, Adam is very interesting as well.

Bennett is on my radar about as much as Shabbazz is. Meaning he isn't.

[nate33]

Jobs in jeopardy: Jan Vesely hasn't shown the ability to transition to the NBA game and is positionless; he doesn't rebound or defend well enough to be a big and doesn't have the skill or touch to play out on the perimeter. He is now in serious danger of having his fourth-year team option declined this summer.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... on-wizards

I am confused, I thought Ves was guaranteed for the 13/14 season, is this not the case?

You are both correct.

The Wizards can make the decision this summer to decline his fourth year option. His fourth year would be the 2014/15 season. He is stuck with us for the 2013/14 season unless we trade him.

[verbal8]

Jobs in jeopardy: Jan Vesely hasn't shown the ability to transition to the NBA game and is positionless; he doesn't rebound or defend well enough to be a big and doesn't have the skill or touch to play out on the perimeter. He is now in serious danger of having his fourth-year team option declined this summer.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... on-wizards

I am confused, I thought Ves was guaranteed for the 13/14 season, is this not the case?

Yes, but I think the deadline for his option for 14/15 must be this summer.

It is pretty rare, especially for high picks. In fact it looks like he will set a new record, previously held by Joe Alexander(8th pick). He would be an unrestricted free agent if his option is declined.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=a ... ucks103009

[80sballboy]

Watching games like this game 2 of the ECF, makes me wonder if the bigman is about to make a return in the NBA. We can hang with teams like the Pacers, but what is more crucial in half court sets? Superior defensive big men or big time SFs....It really seems like Porter/Noel or bust.

If you notice which teams did well in the playoffs this year, it was the ones that had great defensive bigs... and Miami. Worth pointing out that Miami got to play the Bucks and a totally depleted Bulls team BTW.

Gasol, Duncan, and Hibbert are all still in it and Noah powered his team way beyond where people expected.

But it's also worth pointing out that the two best players in the game are forwards and Carmelo was a top 5 player this season. They can single handedly power their teams to the postseason and even win some games on their own once they get there. So I don't know which position is the most valuable. All I do know is that one guy can't win a series by himself and the best teams still win. Not Durant. Not Melo. And not even LeBron either. We need Beal to be a star for John to play with throughout his entire career.

Paul George is really the second coming of Scottie Pippen. If that team had better guards... man they'd be good. CP3 should go to Indy instead of signing in LA. He could push them over the top.

Zeller has a chance to become a Pau Gasol-type player, he is starting to inch back up the board.

Anyone know what Bennet's body-fat ratio is? He looks like a potential porker.

I don't think Gasol would ever get his shot blocked six times or seven like Zeller did when he went up against Syracuse. I just don't see the comparisons. Very unimpressed by him the last month or so in college.

[sfam]

O

Do you feel Len would improve our offense up front? I do. Specially in the role I feel they are lacking it.

For me, I don't think they need to swing for a stud scorer. I think they need to add to get better. And that has as much to do with defense as offense. And it has to do with personality fit with the team. Everyone left, who is a core contributer, plays D. Or at least is focused on trying..I say that for Webby.

I think Nene, Okafor and Kevin provide plenty of offense against most teams for the post. Where I saw them struggle more was against length. Nene's would get out of sync. Kevin was mostly mid range in those situations. Okafor was solid but not great against length either so he would shoot from the key. Nene, Okafor and Booker, when we had them all healthy, could muscle pretty well for rebounds and play defense, but a 7-0 player that has center skills would have really rounded out that group perfectly. Someone who could score in the paint even against longer players. Noel is to light in the trunks for that.

To me, SF is filled until proven differently. They have a great combination there and they are vet experienced. I see no need to fix what isn't broken. Specially when there are other things broken.

At guard, they clearly have two holes...Wall and Beal back ups. Well there are players that can fill both those roles. J Jack would be perfect. In this draft. CJM or like Ive said, VO in a different way. If you go VO, you need to add another PG. Price isn't the answer. You need a Wolters, Pierre or vet.

Noel, Bennett and Otto are not at the top of the list of what they need, given my break down. And that puts me in the minority since those are the players most are thinking we should get. But I stand by my breakdown.

I'm not too enthralled with Len. If were still at #8 he would not be my choice (Zeller or CJM would). He already has issues with his ankles, and only seems partially interested in Bball. I certainly wouldn't advocate trading down to get him. If we want offense up front, Bennett is the guy.

He transferred to a US college instead of going the Euro route because he thought it through. He know he wanted to play in the NBA and he saw that as the best path. He wanted to get acclimated to America and learn the language. He took the path less traveled from what most Euros do. And if you listen to him talk, he now speaks English really well for someone that didn't a couple years ago. That going to help his transition a lot.

He also had elective surgery to ensure his ankle healed properly so he would have the best chance at a long NBA career. He wanted it to heal properly. He could have easily not had that surgery and done the combines where many think he would have shown well. I have even read where some believe he could have shown well enough to project #1 in the draft.

He sounds like a pretty mature heady young man to me that is making smart decisions that are focused on being a productive NBA player.

Can you say that about Bennett ?

I believe Len is a much better prospect then Bennett ... specially for the Wizards. And as other have mentioned, Adam is very interesting as well.

Bennett is on my radar about as much as Shabbazz is. Meaning he isn't.

I would put Len above Shabaaz, but he wouldn't be my pick at #8, let alone #3. Zeller would definitely be before him, as would Burke and CJM. I don't see Len as being much more impactful than your average big stiff white guy. I want someone athletic like Zeller, not a smaller Hibbert. I might even take Adams before Len.

Edit: And yeah, Bennett's decisions have definitely been geared towards being a better NBA player. Look at his 2011 interview where he talked about expanding his game to the edge to compensate for his size.

[hands11]

Hands, I don't know how you can read much into that interview. Seriously, the speculation over that and EG's 3 player draft comment are way over the top. They just aren't going to be giving up much real info at this point.

EGs 3 player draft comment is EG marketing language. He was answering a direct interview question with an answer he already practiced to maximize the value of the pick. As someone already mentioned, if they won the #4th pick, he would have said it was a 4 player draft.

Totally different then evaluating Wittmans comments.

As for how I evaluate Wittmans comments, I told you how. Listen to what he says and listen to what he says on his own when he is rambling vs answering direct questions. Randy is totally different the EG. He doesn't have the BS corporate line stuff that EG has. Randy isn't wired like that. He finds that kind of stuff a waste of his time and not true to the kind of person he is.

Dude, I have been in sales, marketing, business development for almost 20 years. You read people. You listen to what people say and how. You listen to tone. You watch their face. You know how to read people quickly. If you don't, you aren't very good at doing that as a job. Some say people that can do it as born that way. Maybe part of that is true. I think a lot of it was learned. Starting back in who you were in your family. But that's a different conversation.

Now I can not say for 100% fact what they will do. But I can read Randy's tea leafs. It's not hard. Just listen to him for what he says and what he doesn't. Listen to what he is excited about and talks about all on his own. Randy is an easy book to read. But he is just one part of the decision. He even pointed that out. That even tells you something.

But I think he has some weight in the decision. Even though he is in his last year of his contract. He did well in year one. If he takes them to the playoffs, they will resign him. The player respect him. I think Ted and EG do as well. So I see it as all 3 will have a voice. And since EG is in his last year, his voice isn't going to be as strong as in years past. I would expect EG to be in full on making friends mode. That means he would want a consensus decision so he isn't sticking him neck out. I think Ted will manage the process and try to find the player both have consensus on. Kind of like Cooke used to do back in the days between Gibbs and Bobby Betherd.

So in this situation, if we want to read the tea leaves, I think we are lucky because Randy is an easy read and I think he will have an influence almost equal to EGs because we all know EG knows how to play the corporate politics games.

[hands11]

Jobs in jeopardy: Jan Vesely hasn't shown the ability to transition to the NBA game and is positionless; he doesn't rebound or defend well enough to be a big and doesn't have the skill or touch to play out on the perimeter. He is now in serious danger of having his fourth-year team option declined this summer.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... on-wizards

I am confused, I thought Ves was guaranteed for the 13/14 season, is this not the case?

His 4th year option is 2014/2015. That what they won't exercise this summer. He is signed for this up coming season which 2013/2014 which is his 3rd year.

NATE talks about that all the time.