Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[hands11]

I'd rather trade our pick for Jan Vesley's mom than draft shabazz

and you probably also think that Porter is going to have any chance of carrying the team in the fourth quarter with Beal's suspect ankles. Wall is a creator, not a finisher.
Porter ain't a finisher. Beal takes shots within the offense. He is on no finisher. The team has no finishers. The team does not have a number one option and you want to spend our last blue chip on a glue guy because he is nice and clean and he has a one inch standing reach advantage and inferior in all other aspects physically historically to all top level talent in the nba including paul george's combine numbers. give me a break. He weights 195lbs and you have all the faith in the world that he is going to add weight and become a first or even second option in playoffs against guys like Lebron James, Paul George. Everyone loves local Georgetown products but he was a no name recruit, he didn't carry his team deep into the NCAA despite being there for two years like a dwade, he doesn't take over games against top ranked non conference opponents, and he isn't explosive. Shabazz is explosive and the knock against him was that he couldn't shoot. He completely destroyed those notions. Shabazz is a number one option scoring because he can create for himself. He can catch and shoot and he has refined offensive moves. If we don't get adams, it's a tie between Bennett and Shabazz. Beal is a ray allen type shooter. He isn't a kobe or michael jordan type player who can consistently take over games. He has bad ankles since his highschool days. Wall is a pass first point guard aka tony parker. If you are going to follow the San antonio model, the bigman is what makes the Cog go and the only thing that is rock steady about the Spurs for the decade and half is that they shot blocking, above average rebounder, who wins the small battles in the post for rebounding position every night and point guard who attacks the basket on fast breaks and is disciplined with his passes. They pop a shooting guard in that can get to the basket but shooting guard and small forwards are not what make the wheel go.
Point guard and mobile powerful and highly intellligent dominating rebounder that gives you close to 20 and ten every night is what makes them a close to dynasty. The wizards need a 20 and ten Bigman over a glue guy. If we have to trade this last chip we have to get one, that' should be the number one priority.

WD, you like Adams because you say he can be a big man who can rebound and block shots and be a strong defensive anchor in the middle. The Spurs start with Duncan being a 20 and 19 presence. You believe Adams can be a dominant big,

You also believe the Wizards have no finishers who can create their offense. You believe if Adams isn't the pick it's a tie between Shabazz Muhammed and Anthony Bennett who should be the pick.

I can't argue strongly against any of that because you could end up being right. They are guys I don't love but who do match the physical profile of what the Wizards lack.

Saying Wall is not a finisher is kind of silly. And Beal has shown he can finish as well. Yeah he needs to work on his handles, but he already knows that and he is doing that this summer.

What they need more than a finisher is more ball handling skills at the guard in a player that can score and pass. J Jack.

And they need a power post player. Someone that has some Nene skills. We all saw what Nene's skills added. Problem is he missed to many games and he lost his leaping ability. That and his mid range disappeared down the stretch. He was like 0-16 over several game. Jackie Carmichael is NBA ready and would perfect for this team.

If we could replace Kevin S, Singleton and Price with Carmichael, Muscala and Wolters, that would be a huge upgrade to the bench. They would all be rookies but they are all Seniors with NBA ready skills that can contribute right away. Seniors are great draft picks for your bench. I'm tired on drafting projects for the bench. Keep Booker as a utility forward because he has what is missing from those bigs. Booker is also strong but he is fast and quicker feet so you can put him on player where you need those skills. And we know Booker is also strong and can leap.

Wall, Wolters
Beal, Crabbe, Temple
Trevor A, Webster
Nene, Muscala, Booker, Ves
Okafor, Carmichael

To do that you would be trading Kevin S and Singleton and trade way down from the top 3. Not likely. But you could do this.

Wall, CJM
Beal, CJM, Temple
Trevor A, Webster
Nene, Muscala, Booker, Ves
Okafor, Carmichael, Adams

Thats actually doable with a trade back and moving Kevin S and Singleton. Then with cap space next year, a pick and Trevor A as a trade asset, go find a SF or maybe even keep Trevor A

[Ruzious]

Bullock.

Bullock is the better player, he can knock down shots but his offense is more advanced, he can do other things, he's more athletic, can run the pick&roll a little bit, his handles are better.

And in defense,... it's not even fair.

Crabbe played in an awful team, he's good shooter using screens... and thats about it, also he can't play the 3, while Bullock can.

Bullock also has a high character, sometimes too high though.. but it's a good thing, the guy plays hard.

I would tend to agree - except that Crabbe is the more physically gifted of the 2 and would fit in well with a team that just wants an athletic catch and shoot guy who plays well in transition. I just wish Bullock was a bit longer or quick enough to play the 2. Bullock's a lot like Webster.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would like three new faces and for at least one of these players traded; Singleton, Vesely, Seraphin

Two player spots that should be open to new players: Martin, Collins

Outside of those three changes, I'd like to see all of these back because they were a great chemistry group: Webster, Price, Temple, Ariza, Okafor

Every of the three rookies I would draft would fill a need. Three need areas: 1. Wall backup, dynamic playmaker upgrade. 2. Energy big with legit C height who rebounds well, intimidates, and/or scores efficiently. My preference is on improving the offense. That big can be a pick and pop big. 3. Dynamic wing who can score off own offense or rebounding prowess.

Players for need one:

CJ McCollum, Nate Wolters, Isaah Canaan, Erick Green, Pierre Jackson, Ray McCallum, Lorenzo Brown
*Trey Burke is too good behind Wall--Draft him only to trade

Players for need two:

Centers: Olynyk, Zeller, Adams, Dieng. Len, Muscala, Gobert, Marshall, Iverson

Power Forwards (after Marshall): Plumlee, Carmichael, Karsemi, Cooley, Reddic, Howell, Oriakhi, Jevon McCrea

Players to meet need three:

Porter, Oladipo, Bennett. Franklin, Crabbe, Bullock, Muhammed, Vander Blue, Carrick Felix
*Ben McLemore would be a draft to trade and not behind Beal

My names will change some before the draft. I'm sure I left off some players by oversight.

Other skilled players: Larkin, DJ Stephens, CJ Leslie, Peyton Siva, Khalid Wyatt, Ryan Kelly, Kenny Kadji, Michael Snaer

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

Please note he rates Wolters and Crabbe ahead of Len. He is right. Trade down and pick Wolters. Crabbe and Muscala are great prospects. This is too hard for EG and Ted but obvious to some.

He does have some Tony Parker in his handles and floater. Knows how to run a Pick and Roll. Can skip pass. But it looks like his short arms and later quickness are going to get him eaten alive in the NBA defensively unless a team can scheme to cover for him.

Him and Muscala together would play well offensively.

If we don't go with CJM who I think has the handles, shooting and is more athletic, Wolters would be a huge upgrade at back up PG over Price. So would Pierre Jackson but Jackson is much smaller, but also quicker.

I actually really like this draft. There are players all over it.

Did you say you think he will be better than Trey Burke ? If so, not sure sure about that. I expect Burke to challenge for ROTY

.
If Nash blew out his Achilles, Blake had an ACL injury, and LA drafted Wolters he would finish top-5 in ROTY.

Same if he's drafted by Utah.

[sfam]

I also would consider moving down. The Jazz have 14 and 21. The T'Wolves have 9 and 26. The Suns have 5 and 30. OKC has 12 and 29. Atlanta has 17 and 18.

As trading down from 8 for most of those packages would've been weak, doing so from 3 would be a biblical blunder. Just say it out loud "3 for 12 & 29". Picks like the 29th get sold for cash.

Trade downs are nice, but teams without multiple picks possessing players under contract who can help us are the targets.

Agreed. These trade down scenarios all look juicy, but I think we do lots better for ourselves staying at the #3. I'd love it if we could package our seconds plus a player to move up in the first to get another solid target, but realistically we're probably picking #3 and then somewhere in the low 30s by packaging our #38 and #54. I doubt Muscala or Pierre Jackson are still on the board at that point, but hopefully Wolters is. A Porter/Bennett and Wolters draft would be a nice day.

[dobrojim]

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

Wow, looking at his model, Noel & Porter are studs. Interesting stuff.

Yeah. It's making me reconsider my preference for Bennett.

It's worth mentioning that he presumably developed this model by backtesting it over the last couple of drafts. As a result, it's going to show pretty good results retroactively, but it doesn't necessarily mean it'll be that predictive going forward. I wonder how many drafts he has backtested his model on. If it's just the 3 he posted, then it gives me much less confidence in his model. If his model holds up for the last 10 drafts or so, then it would be pretty significant.

I think one of your premises for preferring Bennett, that OP doesn't improve a team
that already has Ariza (pretty much for sure) and Webster (solid bet), shouldn't be
a major consideration. For whoever they pick, you want the guy to have a fair
chance of being a stud by the last year or 2 of their rookie contract and you're
happy if they reach that ahead of schedule. Our roster at SF looks OK with
Ariza and Webster but Ariza probably won't be back after next season. So
depending on what happens with Webster, we look really thin at 3 after this
coming season.

As for playing time, Ariza can play more than just the 3 as can Porter (probably).
Webster can play the 2. They'll find ways to play them probably even before
factoring in opportunities created by injuries.

My biggest fear with OP is the Evan Turner analogy. Don't know how accurate that
might be. He's not horrible, but so far, a disappointment for the #2 pick.
I also don't really see the Prince analogy that much. I think Batum or Iggy
but with better shooting than Iggy might be a closer analogy. I really like
the idea that he is very intuitive, sees and projects what will happen
ahead of time. Great fit with Wall and Beal. Could solidify 1, 2, 3 for
us for many years.

Muscala sounds like a dream scenario as a second pick.

[dobrojim]

We should make a deal with Dallas for there 13 pick would anyone take a risk on Muscala
at 13? If were not able to draft porter that is.

fixed

because I'm always impressed when a guy has a workout where
he hits almost every shot. Reminds me of the Durant anecdote
not that I think Muscala is another KD.

[sfam]

We should make a deal with Dallas for there 13 pick would anyone take a risk on Muscala
at 13? If were not able to draft porter that is.

fixed

because I'm always impressed when a guy has a workout where
he hits almost every shot. Reminds me of the Durant anecdote
not that I think Muscala is another KD.

If we did get the #13, I don't think you take Muscala over Olynyk and Adams. Of those 3, I think I would take Adams, then Olynyk, then Muscala. Adsms physically seems the best prospect, whike Okynyk has already shown significant production against high level competition. That's still an unknown with Muscala.

Muscala does remind me a bit of McHale though, which in itself makes me want to take him if he's available late.

[AFM]

We don't have to necessarily draft a back up guard. I'd rather take a flyer on Josh Selby, who I believe can play. Selby's just lingering in the D league after the Cav's waived him in March.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

We should make a deal with Dallas for there 13 pick would anyone take a risk on Muscala
at 13? If were not able to draft porter that is.

fixed

because I'm always impressed when a guy has a workout where
he hits almost every shot. Reminds me of the Durant anecdote
not that I think Muscala is another KD.

If we did get the #13, I don't think you take Muscala over Olynyk and Adams. Of those 3, I think I would take Adams, then Olynyk, then Muscala. Adsms physically seems the best prospect, whike Okynyk has already shown significant production against high level competition. That's still an unknown with Muscala.

Muscala does remind me a bit of McHale though, which in itself makes me want to take him if he's available late.

I'm REALLY hoping for a Porter/Muscala draft. I don't know if he's on Ernie's radar or not. But to add 2 skilled and smart players like Porter and Muscala would be great fits for this team. I love Muscala at PF, he is very highly skilled offensively with a smooth jumper and variety of post moves, passes well, moves well, rebounds, has good length, and gives max effort, high character.

After that draft, I would try to parlay Ariza, Vesely, Singleton into some vet guard depth.

[sfam]

If the Wizards end up taking Bennett, I think the draft may end up going something like this:

1) Cleveland - Noe
2) Orlando - McLemore
3) Wizards - Bennett
4) Charlotte - Olapido
5) Phoenix - Zeller
6) Nola - Porter
7) Sacramento - Burke
8) Detroit - McCullum
9) Minny - Len
10) Portland - Caldwell-Pope

Porter probably falls to at least #6. I think Phoenix probably feels the worst here since they probably want Olapido or Bennett to fall to them. I bet the take Zeller over Len there though.

[sfam]

I'm REALLY hoping for a Porter/Muscala draft. I don't know if he's on Ernie's radar or not. But to add 2 skilled and smart players like Porter and Muscala would be great fits for this team. I love Muscala at PF, he is very highly skilled offensively with a smooth jumper and variety of post moves, passes well, moves well, rebounds, has good length, and gives max effort, high character.

After that draft, I would try to parlay Ariza, Vesely, Singleton into some vet guard depth.

Realistically though, where do you think Muscala ends up? I'm now thinking he's in the mid-20s at least. Do you think he's still there in the second?

[Dat2U]

Choice at #3:

1. Nerlens Noel
2. Otto Porter
3. Victor Oladipo
4. Trade down/out

If we trade down to 6 or 9:

1. Kelly Olynyk
2. Cody Zeller
3. Dennis Schroeder
4. Rudy Gobert
5. Anthony Bennett

If we get a pick later in the 1st round:

1. Glen Rice Jr.
2. Steven Adams
3. Mike Muscala
4. Isaiah Canaan

2nd rd pick #1:

1. Isaiah Canaan
2. Pierre Jackson
3. Nate Wolters
4. Erick Green

2nd rd pick #2:
1. Ryan Kelly
2. Elias Harris
3. Seth Curry
4. Alex Oriakhi

[hands11]

Pretty brutal breakdown of CJM
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqxN2KL6VJI[/youtube]

[montestewart]

Pretty brutal breakdown of CJM
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqxN2KL6VJI[/youtube]

Through four minutes, it's primarily a collection of his missed shots. If I made a mashup of all of LeBJ's misses, that would look pretty brutal too. What's the point of this?

Honestly, seems like analysis with an agenda, and McCollum is not particularly high on my radar. This makes me like him more.

[The Consiglieri]

We should make a deal with Dallas for there 13 pick would anyone take a risk on shabazz muhammad at 13? If were not able to draft porter that is.

I would do that in a second if the price is right. Muhammad will be a player in this league. No chance he's a bust, just not the right value at #3, he'd be a flat out steal at #13, and I don't expect him to last that long.

It depends on what you mean by a bust. If you mean a guy who won't score, he won't be a bust. If you mean a guy who won't help his team win, he will likely be a bust.

I have an issue with a defining a player as a finished product after his freshman year. Maybe it's just because that's what happened with Young, and McGee, but I find something fundamentally wrong with highlighting what Porter can do, and might do, and emphasizing what Bennett or Muhammad didn't do as a freshman in college.

Are they finished products already?

Maybe that's the key area of disagreement. The Porter boosters want the bird in the hand, and see no value in drafting someone whose good now, and could be great later, or might not be (granted our development record isn't terrific). Not sure, my major issue though is in defining who a player is, and will be, based upon his sole college season. That just seems crazy to me. The vast majority of players evolve, at least to some extent. Believing only the players you like will do so, or can do so, while others can't seems a stretch to me.

This isn't directed at you so much as just everyone's take on numerous freshman they don't like. Porter has evolved, and he's a second year guy, why are we denying that Bennett, and Muhammad could just as easily evolve in their second year out of high school?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm REALLY hoping for a Porter/Muscala draft. I don't know if he's on Ernie's radar or not. But to add 2 skilled and smart players like Porter and Muscala would be great fits for this team. I love Muscala at PF, he is very highly skilled offensively with a smooth jumper and variety of post moves, passes well, moves well, rebounds, has good length, and gives max effort, high character.

After that draft, I would try to parlay Ariza, Vesely, Singleton into some vet guard depth.

Realistically though, where do you think Muscala ends up? I'm now thinking he's in the mid-20s at least. Do you think he's still there in the second?

Well, I'm hoping they can move up from 38 for him. May be realistic, but I can dream.

Murphy would be my plan B

[willbcocks]

I would do that in a second if the price is right. Muhammad will be a player in this league. No chance he's a bust, just not the right value at #3, he'd be a flat out steal at #13, and I don't expect him to last that long.

It depends on what you mean by a bust. If you mean a guy who won't score, he won't be a bust. If you mean a guy who won't help his team win, he will likely be a bust.

I have an issue with a defining a player as a finished product after his freshman year. Maybe it's just because that's what happened with Young, and McGee, but I find something fundamentally wrong with highlighting what Porter can do, and might do, and emphasizing what Bennett or Muhammad didn't do as a freshman in college.

Are they finished products already?

Maybe that's the key area of disagreement. The Porter boosters want the bird in the hand, and see no value in drafting someone whose good now, and could be great later, or might not be (granted our development record isn't terrific). Not sure, my major issue though is in defining who a player is, and will be, based upon his sole college season. That just seems crazy to me. The vast majority of players evolve, at least to some extent. Believing only the players you like will do so, or can do so, while others can't seems a stretch to me.

This isn't directed at you so much as just everyone's take on numerous freshman they don't like. Porter has evolved, and he's a second year guy, why are we denying that Bennett, and Muhammad could just as easily evolve in their second year out of high school?

Porter is also 3 months younger than Bennett and 7 months young than Shabazz, and he didn't grow up in a highly touted program. If anything, Porter should be getting the bonus points on room for development. And he's better now and a high character guy. Win, win, win situation drafting him.

[AFM]

Well they certainly highlighted his faults

[SUPERBALLMAN]

To me the vast improvement in Porter year 2 is very encouraging. The reasoning is because IMO his 1st year is weighted down due to the complexity of the princeton. I remember Eddie Jordan saying it takes a full year of playing in it for players to fully grasp it, and that was in the NBA.

For a guy right out of high school it is a lot, especially against top level competition in the big east, zone defenses, etc. Once Porter grasped the offense he really "got it" and thrived. He reached a level of executing the offense to perfection. His ability to read the defense, make the right play, make the right pass, be at the right place at the right time was uncanny. IMO this is extremely encouraging.