Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[Severn Hoos]

Whenever I read something like "we need to get a young rim protector who can get 20 & 10 on a nightly basis..." or similar language, my preferred exercise is to ask the question: "OK, let's suppose salary and the other team's willingness to make a trade are no object. Who in the league would fit the description?"

In WD's post, I'm really having a hard time thinking of anyone - regardless of cost or availability - who would fit the bill. Hibbert is young & pretty strong, but isn't a 20 & 10 guy. Duncan? Not young. Noah, Ibaka, Sanders? Not necessarily the strongest guys, and all limited offensively. Josh Smith has nice block numbers, but really does it from the weakside/help - not a strong positional defender.

And, um, the highest Blocks per 48 belongs to.... JaVale McGee.

The closest I could come up with are Anthony Davis (again, strength will probably be an issue for another couple years), Derrick Favors, and Marc Gasol.

So, good luck getting the best #1 overall of the past decade or the reigning DPOY for the #3 overall. MAYBE you could work out a deal for Favors, just in time to sign him to a huge FA contract.

I'll take the more realistic approach and be glad that we'll have the best young perimeter in the league for the next 5-10 years, and hope that the new GM can convert Okariza's expiring, Nene, and whatever else he can cobble together into a competent frontcourt.

[Dark Faze]

I'll take the more realistic approach and be glad that we'll have the best young perimeter in the league for the next 5-10 years, and hope that the new GM can convert Okariza's expiring, Nene, and whatever else he can cobble together into a competent frontcourt.

This has been my thinking.

You can get defensive C's in free agency that can rebound. You won't get a great two way player, but you don't need it if you have some of the best players in the league at the 1,2, and 3 spots.

If you've got some of the best perimeter defenders in the league your need for a dominant down low player lessens. Its why the Wizards were leagues better than the Lakers despite their front court.

Ideally I'd like to get Porter and extend Ariza/Webster/Okafor to the length of Nenes contract. Use our 2nd rounders on some guys like Siva, Crabbe, Wolters and hope one of them works out. Maybe dumb Webster and use the money on a free agent point and use a 2nd rounder on Muscala.

The Nene/Okafor core has enough upside and has changed the culture enough for them to be worth sticking around for a few seasons. We enjoy some 1st/2nd round playoff exits until they expire and we can use a bunch of cap space for whatever great big we can get in free agency.

[WizarDynasty]

the closest thing to a young all jefferson comes to mind. A marc Gasol type player? I would even stretch for cousins. A young bigman with lower body strength and rim protectin with offensive upside deserves to get paid. the money has to go somewhere and I would rather put the money where it is going to make the most impact. We need a young big with 20 and 10 potential that also can protect the rim. back courts dont' win you anything unless you have michael jordan or a lebron or even a Kevin Durant. This team has no superstars and won't ever even have a chance to get a player with superstar potential. We have Wall who is a tony parker creator type player. Beal is a role player---he doesn't create, he shoots after wall creates for him. Nene and Okafor careers are on the decline and they never lead their teams anywhere.
This team needs a number one option, and preferably a bigman. Wall and Beal are not and should never be considered, number one options. Wall needs a finisher in the paint for his passes, Beal needs someone to draw his defender away from him for an open shot. You guys are delusional if you think a backcourt of isaih thoman and joe dumars alone gets you deep in the playoffs without a dominant rebounder a the bare minimum. This team has no dennis rodman, hot rod williams, bill laimbeer, and we aren't getting anything after this draft except rejects that no one else wants.

[Dark Faze]

Wall, Beal, and Porter would be a better 1,2,3 combination than any of the blue collar teams that are going far in the playoffs like the Grizz and Pacers.

I'm not saying we can win without a frontcourt, we can't, but Okafor and Nene are nice frontcourt options. We can get a blue collar big in the draft just like those teams did. There are always nice big men project late in the draft like Hibbert and Gasol. There will be some there next year and the year after. I'd rather have our staff reach for those guys when we have solid players locked in with high picks than to react too early before a core is developed.

[WizarDynasty]

i would do a trade with utah to get jefferson and move down to utah pick and give up either nene or okafor but really get jefferson.
Jefferson should boost the value of the franchise by 100 million and immediately gets us deep in playoffs. jefferson wall and beal sounds really really really nice versus low usage players like nene and okafor. nene is way better than mcgee. we were scraping the bottom of the barrel. Okafor is better than mcgee again we were scraping the bottom of the barrel, but if you are shooting for the stars, you need a bigman who is a high usage high efficiency player. Beal is a system player, he can't get a bucket with five minutes left unless wall breaks down the defense. We have no one on the roster outside of nene who has a high probability of drawing a foul or getting a bucket with five minutes left.
This team needs a high usage high efficiency scorer and that's traditionally the role of a player who scores a ton close to rim.
Nene and okafor are low usage players. They don't maintain high field goal percentages as their shot attempts go up. Wall's game is based on drive and dish, like parker. Parker is only where he is because he has tim duncan to finish whenever a big doubles on him during his drive and Duncan always finishes. So again, this draft should be about getting a finisher for wall in the half court set. A player who is able to keep a high field goal percentage as his usage increases. Nene breaks down as his usage increases and he is only getting older and nene isn't a finisher. Okafor is not a finisher. McGee hate to say it was a much much better finisher than any of these guys so we took a bigman step back in that department.
A bigman with at least the potential to finish and has all the qualities we look for is adams. Looking back on the draft, how many people had Evans as having a way better career than Cousins. Why was Bayless selected 10 slots before hibbert.
Today not one person would dream of trading hibbert and lottery pick for bayless.
You should never let public opinion influence your draft board. Just because ESPN has hibbert ranked 20th means jack. We were picking 8th, we would have gotten adams, and do we let public dissuade you from getting the guy who is a perfect fit with what you need for the future because you moved up 5 spots and the draft pundits want to keep their predictions correct. In a weak draft like this, with no superstars, the role players we see drafted at slot 20 will probably have better careers than the guys slotted at number one. So you pick the player who will be hardest to fill in free agency and who teams place a high premium on if he shows upside. Hibbert selected 17th and now he is more valuable than the number one pick in this draft.

[verbal8]

Wall, Beal, and Porter would be a better 1,2,3 combination than any of the blue collar teams that are going far in the playoffs like the Grizz and Pacers.

I'm not saying we can win without a frontcourt, we can't, but Okafor and Nene are nice frontcourt options. We can get a blue collar big in the draft just like those teams did. There are always nice big men project late in the draft like Hibbert and Gasol. There will be some there next year and the year after. I'd rather have our staff reach for those guys when we have solid players locked in with high picks than to react too early before a core is developed.

Acquiring a mid 1st round pick, could make this a great draft for the Wizards. There are some guys who look like they could really help in the post projected for the middle of the 1st round. Adams is the rawest, but has most upside. I think Dieng or Withey should be able to help from day 1, and could be a much cheaper Okafor replacement. With at late 1st Muscala and possibly Nogueira would be good targets. Plumlee may also be an option.

[Kanyewest]

Wizard's need to come away from this draft with a young rim protector with above average strength lower leg strength to guard the post and capable of 20 and 10 nightly and with no major injury concerns.
Can we pretend real gms help TEd figure out a play to cash in this last chip we will have for another 10 years and get this player? or at least come close to getting him? That's the challenge.

Is that 20 and 10 guy LeBron But yeah rim protectors are of high value to the Wizards. A guy like Porter could be valuable in making LeBron work on both ends with his post game to finish around the basket, ability to find the open man. Of course, the big thing that Porter has to do to be a successful pick is knock down 3s at a high rate- somewhere in the 40 % range. With Wall he'll get that chance.

[pancakes3]

Whenever I read something like "we need to get a young rim protector who can get 20 & 10 on a nightly basis..." or similar language, my preferred exercise is to ask the question: "OK, let's suppose salary and the other team's willingness to make a trade are no object. Who in the league would fit the description?"

I think an even more pertinent question would be - "Who in this draft lives up to this description?" Len? Zeller? Adams? Hardly.

As for all the Hibbert love, he's doing well no doubt and stepped his game up marginally in the playoffs but he still isn't a mindblowing 20/10 player. 15/10 per 36 in the regular season on sub-50% TS, and an improved 16/10 on 55% TS (.483 efg) in the playoffs. It's pretty much identical to Nene's CAREER per-36's.

[hands11]

Len - Decent chance of becoming Hibbert good but won't effective games in a positive fashion between 5-6 seasons and that's if he can avoid additional injuries.

Do you take that length of development with the risk of injuries at #3? I'd say no personally. People need to remember that Hibbert was drafted 17th overall, where it's much easier to work on a project with the salary he gets.

You have to look at down the road too. 4 million a year while he's developing and you're going to have a serious decision to make when its time to extend his contract. Due to his potential a team is going to offer him 10 million plus so you'd have to make a decision on him despite him not showing a breakout until a year or so after most likely.

I think its a hard pill to swallow.

But again, like I said I do think he's got a great chance of becoming Hibbert, but again--development time is going to be extensive and the injury concerns are there.

Come on. Really. 5-6 years ?

Len may or may not be worth the #3 but in this draft a #3 isn't like a normal #3.

But he isn't going to take 5-6 years to develop.

But I do agree I want a player that can get it going in their first year at the 3rd pick. I'm pretty sure he will be able to be long, defend and rebound in his first year. Personally, I prefer a center with a stronger trunk.

But because of need at back up SG, I think VO is seriously in the running and he would be able to give you top defense, driving and some shooting right away.

Just depends on their thinking. They could just count on Okafor being the starting center for 2-3 more years, find a better back up ( Withey, Adams, Muscala, Dieng, Colton Iverson, etc ) and keep their eye open for a Gortat.

Right now I'm thinking maybe they don't go center with the first and fill back up center like that.

That would put VO first. He is about a sure a player as there is at the top. You know he is going to play winning basketball.

[montestewart]

^
I'm not too worried about a 19-year-old big (Len or Adams) coming in and contributing big right away. With Okafor, Nene, Seraphin, and Booker, next season could be a gradual transition. If they end up with Len and his foot injury, they better be taking their sweet time, and Adams seems to have come to basketball kind of late; from what I read, he seems willing to learn, but he probably has a lot to learn. Older players like Dieng, Olynyk, Muscala, etc. hopefully would show their merit more quickly.

[Dark Faze]

The quickest I've seen a young center be above average defensively is in his third season and that was Dwight Howard. Chandler took until his third season.

Garnett took several years before his defense started to look above average to dominant.

Hibbert and Noah had 3 to 4 years of college experience and weren't above average defensively until 3 to 4 years in the NBA respectively.

Len won't even get a training camp this year or a rookie season really. Hard to imagine him getting much if any burn as a 19 year old big with a stress fracture.

So essentially thats 1 wasted year already, nevermind not having as much college experience as most of the defensive.

So assuming everything goes perfectly I wouldn't expect him to help us until year 4 at the earliest.

[hands11]

I'll take the more realistic approach and be glad that we'll have the best young perimeter in the league for the next 5-10 years, and hope that the new GM can convert Okariza's expiring, Nene, and whatever else he can cobble together into a competent frontcourt.

This has been my thinking.

You can get defensive C's in free agency that can rebound. You won't get a great two way player, but you don't need it if you have some of the best players in the league at the 1,2, and 3 spots.

If you've got some of the best perimeter defenders in the league your need for a dominant down low player lessens. Its why the Wizards were leagues better than the Lakers despite their front court.

Ideally I'd like to get Porter and extend Ariza/Webster/Okafor to the length of Nenes contract. Use our 2nd rounders on some guys like Siva, Crabbe, Wolters and hope one of them works out. Maybe dumb Webster and use the money on a free agent point and use a 2nd rounder on Muscala.

The Nene/Okafor core has enough upside and has changed the culture enough for them to be worth sticking around for a few seasons. We enjoy some 1st/2nd round playoff exits until they expire and we can use a bunch of cap space for whatever great big we can get in free agency.

You are way undervaluing what Webster did for them last year and just how good he was at SF for the Wizards. Webby not only got you points but he spread the floor. He even drove some later in the year. And he was arguably the best vet leader in the lockeroom. He was the connection between the older Nene and Okafor and the younger Wall and Beal. Webby was a serious leader and also funny as hell to lighting things up. He was a perfect fit.

Webster brought a ton to the team.

If they ended up with VO, one of Mike Muscala/Jackie Carmichael/Colton Iverson and Erik Murphy they will have added good solid depth, and that's what they need. With that, they could make some noise.

Wall/Price
Beal/VO/Temple
Webster/Trevor A
Nene/Kevin S/Booker/Erik Murphy
Okafor/

one of Muscala/Jackie Carmichael/Colton Iverson

Plus Ves as your wild card. Go into the season like that and consolidate later. Dump Singleton.

[Deeptu McPullup]

But because of need at back up SG, I think VO is seriously in the running and he would be able to give you top defense, driving and some shooting right away.

Just depends on their thinking. They could just count on Okafor being the starting center for 2-3 more years, find a better back up ( Withey, Adams, Muscala, Dieng, Colton Iverson, etc ) and keep their eye open for a Gortat.

Right now I'm thinking maybe they don't go center with the first and fill back up center like that.

That would put VO first. He is about a sure a player as there is at the top. You know he is going to play winning basketball.

While I’m not going to pretend that I know what’s going happen, it would be shocking if the Wizards’ brass weren’t making decisions on how to use the 3rd pick in the 2013 NBA draft based on who they thought was going to be the best player over the course of their career.

That Ernie would say something like “I’ll be doggone if I got me a clue how we’re gonna find a guard off the bench, Tommy. Whaddaya’ say, Dipo then? He’d plug it day one.”

I mean drafting for need is bad enough, but drafting for bench need with the third pick? Has that ever been done before? This sort of thing has to be 'reason 573, clause C' on why you'd pick one guy over another at this point in the draft.

Anyway, I've got good news for everyone: even if we did put precedence on this, our bench is currently awful at most positions.

[Severn Hoos]

This stat geek likes Porter much more than Bennett. He ranks Porter as a very likely to be an all-star caliber player, with Bennett being a hit or miss prospect. Application of his system to the last 3 draft classes have been pretty accurate.

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

Wow, looking at his model, Noel & Porter are studs. Interesting stuff.

I missed this over the weekend, but I also really like what this guy has to say. Or maybe I should say - this guy agrees with my opinions and thus allows me to claim the veneer of statistical objectivity for my untrained subjective eye.

Interesting that he liked Crowder - a huge YODA favorite - and that he liked Sullinger much more than Robinson (did I already say how much I like this guy? ) Leonard, Butler, Vucevic, and Faried all score well above their 2011 draft position, which I think everyone here would agree with - regardless of how you would rank those 4 guys among themselves.

But here's why I think it's a valuable tool, and it's in his own write-up. His model values the solid contributor over the "swing for the fences" types. By his own admission, lower score guys are "hit-or-miss", which is an acknowledgement that there may be a "Hit" in the lower ranks that his model would not pick up.

So in the end, he's telling us what most of us already know. Porter is very likely to be a solid all-around contributor. Might even make an All-Star game or two (which is often a function of who's hurt, who's having an off year / career year, and who's in which conference at a given position). Porter looks like the entire Pacers roster to me - guys who are great team players, solid at multiple aspects of the game, high IQ, won't cause you to lose a game or a series. Will he win games for you? hard to say. But it reminds me of Nick Young. No question, Nick won that playoff game for the Clipps last year, and by extension, the series. But I still would rather have a solid guy who you know what you're getting night-in and night-out over the hope of a "game-changer" that may or may not pan out.

I don't think he's necessarily dissing Bennett, McLemore, or anyone else with more "upside". He's just quantifying the risk associated with those guys and weighing it against the more likely contribution from a guy like Porter. Of course, given that Porter is so young - still just 19, probably would have been held back a la Shabazz if he had been groomed by the AAU circuit from his youth, meaning he'd just be finishing his Freshman year - he has some upside left too, IMO.

For me, Porter's the clear pick. The only reason to be wary is Deepalotta's concerns around roster fit down the road. But surely this board wouldn't argue Fit over BPA, would they?

[hands11]

The quickest I've seen a young center be above average defensively is in his third season and that was Dwight Howard. Chandler took until his third season.

Garnett took several years before his defense started to look above average to dominant.

Hibbert and Noah had 3 to 4 years of college experience and weren't above average defensively until 3 to 4 years in the NBA respectively.

Len won't even get a training camp this year or a rookie season really. Hard to imagine him getting much if any burn as a 19 year old big with a stress fracture.

So essentially thats 1 wasted year already, nevermind not having as much college experience as most of the defensive.

So assuming everything goes perfectly I wouldn't expect him to help us until year 4 at the earliest.

Sound more like you don't expect him to start hitting his prime until then, I'm sure he could help in the mean time coming off the bench. I would expect that to start the 2nd half of his first year. Then decently steady bench play in year 2. By year 3 he should be mostly realizable. Then break out in year 4.

[jivelikenice]

OKC took a bench player and filled a need with Harden. Now he could have started for them, but I think their vision was for him to settle in to a 6th man role.

I don't think there's any reason to get hung up on if the player we're drafting is a bench player or a starter. I don't think anyone we draft this year will start from Day 1. What's more important is will our draft pick be able to play 25-30 minutes a night? In Oladipo's case, the answer would be yes. He'd get minutes behind Beal and minutes at the 3.

[Upper Decker]

HAHA, trade the pick and Okafor/Nene for Al Jefferson! I've read funny stuff here before, but that's a good one. Al Jefferson can't guard his shadow. Young rim protector?! Pa-leez!! Jefferson is the low-post version of Kevin Love (Love being the jump-shooting version of Al Jefferson) of a big who get's meaningless stats, has no defensive presence, and has no leadership for winning.

Interestingly, Love has never reached the playoffs in 5 seasons. In 9 seasons Al Jefferson has only 3 wins in the playoffs and those happened in 2005.

[Deeptu McPullup]

i would do a trade with utah to get jefferson and move down to utah pick and give up either nene or okafor but really get jefferson.
Jefferson should boost the value of the franchise by 100 million and immediately gets us deep in playoffs.

Before going specific, you were shrouded in a seductive mist of authority, perhaps an abstract stratagem of adamantine ascendance lay dormant amid the parlor smoke of your musings; if only we would listen to the shadowed savant. If only we’d listen.

After the Al Jefferson suggestion……you a sav’ain’t, Wiz D, you a sav’ain’t.

[hands11]

But because of need at back up SG, I think VO is seriously in the running and he would be able to give you top defense, driving and some shooting right away.

Just depends on their thinking. They could just count on Okafor being the starting center for 2-3 more years, find a better back up ( Withey, Adams, Muscala, Dieng, Colton Iverson, etc ) and keep their eye open for a Gortat.

Right now I'm thinking maybe they don't go center with the first and fill back up center like that.

That would put VO first. He is about a sure a player as there is at the top. You know he is going to play winning basketball.

While I’m not going to pretend that I know what’s going happen, it would be shocking if the Wizards’ brass weren’t making decisions on how to use the 3rd pick in the 2013 NBA draft based on who they thought was going to be the best player over the course of their career.

That Ernie would say something like “I’ll be doggone if I got me a clue how we’re gonna find a guard off the bench, Tommy. Whaddaya’ say, Dipo then? He’d plug it day one.”

I mean drafting for need is bad enough, but drafting for bench need with the third pick? Has that ever been done before? This sort of thing has to be 'reason 573, clause C' on why you'd pick one guy over another at this point in the draft.

Anyway, I've got good news for everyone: even if we did put precedence on this, our bench is currently awful at most positions.

Its pretty much the opposite of what you just posted. VO would be drafting BPA.

Drafting for need as most would define it, would get you a PF or a C since those are the two positions with the oldest staring players.

Sure VO fills a need. Anyone you add to a team does that.

Wizard have the #3. DraftX has VO at #4. The fact that Beal is the staring SG for a long time make a VO pick the opposite of what most would call drafting for need. Its a BPA pick.

But you always have to draft for fit of personality. Thats what the Spurs do. Just heard one of there old coaches talk and he said, a huge part of their evaluation was based on one question...

Is this player a Spur? If you don't have the right personality, focus, drive, work ethic, team focus, etc,
you aren't a Spur.

VO is a winner and is looking good as BPA at #3

[hands11]

i would do a trade with utah to get jefferson and move down to utah pick and give up either nene or okafor but really get jefferson.
Jefferson should boost the value of the franchise by 100 million and immediately gets us deep in playoffs.

Before going specific, you were shrouded in a seductive mist of authority, perhaps an abstract stratagem of adamantine ascendance lay dormant amid the parlor smoke of your musings; if only we would listen to the shadowed savant. If only we’d listen.

After the Al Jefferson suggestion……you a sav’ain’t, Wiz D, you a sav’ain’t.

And Wall can't create ?
Beal isn't a #1 option ?
The team has no stars ?

Sounds like the postings of someone whos last game watched was Dec 20th.