Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[dobrojim]

Len - Decent chance of becoming Hibbert good but won't effective games in a positive fashion between 5-6 seasons and that's if he can avoid additional injuries.

Do you take that length of development with the risk of injuries at #3? I'd say no personally. People need to remember that Hibbert was drafted 17th overall, where it's much easier to work on a project with the salary he gets.

You have to look at down the road too. 4 million a year while he's developing and you're going to have a serious decision to make when its time to extend his contract. Due to his potential a team is going to offer him 10 million plus so you'd have to make a decision on him despite him not showing a breakout until a year or so after most likely.

I think its a hard pill to swallow.

But again, like I said I do think he's got a great chance of becoming Hibbert, but again--development time is going to be extensive and the injury concerns are there.

It's fair to point out how much criticism Hibbert was getting earlier this season
after signing the big deal and averaging relatively paltry numbers. However we
know that the NBA is about matchups and MIA, as good as they are, has no size
up front to match with a true big C.

Len is risky. Zeller might be a lot less so if you can't draft Porter and want to go big
maybe he should be the guy.

My backup choice to OP remains Dipo. Heck, Dipo would be my first choice if we didn't
already have Beal.

[CLIN]

The quickest I've seen a young center be above average defensively is in his third season and that was Dwight Howard. Chandler took until his third season.

Garnett took several years before his defense started to look above average to dominant.

Hibbert and Noah had 3 to 4 years of college experience and weren't above average defensively until 3 to 4 years in the NBA respectively.

Len won't even get a training camp this year or a rookie season really. Hard to imagine him getting much if any burn as a 19 year old big with a stress fracture.

So essentially thats 1 wasted year already, nevermind not having as much college experience as most of the defensive.

So assuming everything goes perfectly I wouldn't expect him to help us until year 4 at the earliest.

drummond. some advanced metrics have him as damn near the best defensive player in the league last year.

also, someone should post that video of him stealing the ball from wade two possessions in a row.

[hands11]

Porter, the poor man's Evan Turner. We see where that got Philadelphia. And Evans accomplished way more than Porter. Looks like we have mini Grunfelds on the board.

I like to blow my own horn too much for the times I am right. I will admit at least when I am wrong. I absolutely loved Evan Turner as a potential Wizards draft pick. I wanted to trade Wall's rights for Turner and Cousins or Favors , if possible. I would have taken Turner and a first. I was wrong.

Turner, as Dat first opened my eyes to see, is totally ball dominant. He's not athletic enough to score easily and he is not a pure enough shooter to be effective shooting threes.

WD, Porter is not a ball-dominant player. He is not a "power guard" like Turner. Porter is like Tayshaun Prince, and a guy who is a system player at both ends.

Turner and Porter both lack explosive quickness. Neither will create a lot of offense by himself. I think Porter is going to benefit by being a role player if the Wizards are lucky enough to pick him. Like Turner, Porter will be a good defender right away. That and hitting open looks are all the Wizards require of Porter.

My Evan Turner was Wesley Johnson. But I'm still holding out a little hope. I don't think he has been used correctly. Maybe next year he makes a significant leap.

As for the need for player to create there own offense, SA doesn't have many. Parker is the main creator. Then you have Manu. Most of their offense is a system that starts with Parker and is based on excellent plays that are well run using screens.

Well the Wizards have Wall. Beal is sure to add to his handles and he will become another. VO adds a 3rd. Thats really all you need for creators. What you need after that is great picks, soundly run plays, efficient shooting, rebounding, team passing, and great D.

The Wizards don't need a ball dominate Melo type. That isn't the system the run. NY is all iso. Thats a different model.

[Dat2U]

Drummond's defense translated immediately to the NBA. That's the one aspect about him that really stood out in college but really couldn't be measured fully by numbers. His individual D and his rotations were always at a high level and a big reason Drummond was 4th on my draft board last season, far higher than most had him.

[dangermouse]

Just checking out Len for really the first time.

I like him, out of he, Zeller and Bennett, I think i like them in that order. That frame should be able to pack on some more weight and muscle.

Whats the catch with Len?

[Dat2U]

So in the end, he's telling us what most of us already know. Porter is very likely to be a solid all-around contributor. Might even make an All-Star game or two (which is often a function of who's hurt, who's having an off year / career year, and who's in which conference at a given position). Porter looks like the entire Pacers roster to me - guys who are great team players, solid at multiple aspects of the game, high IQ, won't cause you to lose a game or a series. Will he win games for you? hard to say. But it reminds me of Nick Young. No question, Nick won that playoff game for the Clipps last year, and by extension, the series. But I still would rather have a solid guy who you know what you're getting night-in and night-out over the hope of a "game-changer" that may or may not pan out.

I don't think he's necessarily dissing Bennett, McLemore, or anyone else with more "upside". He's just quantifying the risk associated with those guys and weighing it against the more likely contribution from a guy like Porter. Of course, given that Porter is so young - still just 19, probably would have been held back a la Shabazz if he had been groomed by the AAU circuit from his youth, meaning he'd just be finishing his Freshman year - he has some upside left too, IMO.

For me, Porter's the clear pick. The only reason to be wary is Deepalotta's concerns around roster fit down the road. But surely this board wouldn't argue Fit over BPA, would they?

Excellent points, I'm getting closer to saying Porter is the clear pick as well. There are too many positives that he brings to the table. You know your getting high IQ, high energy and incredibly mature player with ideal size & the requisite athleticism for the SF position. You know your likely getting a quality NBA starter at a position that severly lacks starpower around the league. I think there's a very good chance, much like Beal and much like recent all-star Paul George, that Porter will be a top 5 player at this position because of the overall lack of depth on the wings in the NBA.

I think Porter is really a can't lose proposition.

[Deeptu McPullup]

But because of need at back up SG, I think VO is seriously in the running and he would be able to give you top defense, driving and some shooting right away.

Just depends on their thinking. They could just count on Okafor being the starting center for 2-3 more years, find a better back up ( Withey, Adams, Muscala, Dieng, Colton Iverson, etc ) and keep their eye open for a Gortat.

Right now I'm thinking maybe they don't go center with the first and fill back up center like that.

That would put VO first. He is about a sure a player as there is at the top. You know he is going to play winning basketball.

While I’m not going to pretend that I know what’s going happen, it would be shocking if the Wizards’ brass weren’t making decisions on how to use the 3rd pick in the 2013 NBA draft based on who they thought was going to be the best player over the course of their career.

That Ernie would say something like “I’ll be doggone if I got me a clue how we’re gonna find a guard off the bench, Tommy. Whaddaya’ say, Dipo then? He’d plug it day one.”

I mean drafting for need is bad enough, but drafting for bench need with the third pick? Has that ever been done before? This sort of thing has to be 'reason 573, clause C' on why you'd pick one guy over another at this point in the draft.

Anyway, I've got good news for everyone: even if we did put precedence on this, our bench is currently awful at most positions.

Its pretty much the opposite of what you just posted. VO would be drafting BPA.

Drafting for need as most would define it, would get you a PF or a C since those are the two positions with the oldest staring players.

Sure VO fills a need. Anyone you add to a team does that.

Wizard have the #3. DraftX has VO at #4. The fact that Beal is the staring SG for a long time make a VO pick the opposite of what most would call drafting for need. Its a BPA pick.

But you always have to draft for fit of personality. Thats what the Spurs do. Just heard one of there old coaches talk and he said, a huge part of their evaluation was based on one question...

Is this player a Spur? If you don't have the right personality, focus, drive, work ethic, team focus, etc,
you aren't a Spur.

VO is a winner and is looking good as BPA at #3

Yeah, I agree with this followup. I like VO best of who's probably there at 3, but what I meant was that you have to make that decision in isolation of everything else. It has to be a very simple decision: who's the best player on the board? The conclusion of picking Office Dipo is fine, but the process needs to look different from what you were laying out up there in the previous post. You were making it sound like what they think they can do late in the draft and peripheral short terms needs should affect what they do with the third pick. That would be very dangerous. This above post here is how the thought process should look, yes, as we are likely to get BPA running it through the ringer like that.

Recent history would suggest it's easy enough to muff high picks even when you're thinking purely BPA. Although right now there might be four guys on a tier according to consensus, we all know that five years down the road there will be some sizable chasms between the talent the found in the guys taken from 1-4 (or further back too), so the surest approach is to just go as close to BPA as we can.

Of course, we don't all agree on how to measure BPA as evidenced by Bennet verus Porter, but that's a whole another story. FWIW, the guys I like would mostly overlap with your guys at the top of the lottery.

[Higga]

So in the end, he's telling us what most of us already know. Porter is very likely to be a solid all-around contributor. Might even make an All-Star game or two (which is often a function of who's hurt, who's having an off year / career year, and who's in which conference at a given position). Porter looks like the entire Pacers roster to me - guys who are great team players, solid at multiple aspects of the game, high IQ, won't cause you to lose a game or a series. Will he win games for you? hard to say. But it reminds me of Nick Young. No question, Nick won that playoff game for the Clipps last year, and by extension, the series. But I still would rather have a solid guy who you know what you're getting night-in and night-out over the hope of a "game-changer" that may or may not pan out.

I don't think he's necessarily dissing Bennett, McLemore, or anyone else with more "upside". He's just quantifying the risk associated with those guys and weighing it against the more likely contribution from a guy like Porter. Of course, given that Porter is so young - still just 19, probably would have been held back a la Shabazz if he had been groomed by the AAU circuit from his youth, meaning he'd just be finishing his Freshman year - he has some upside left too, IMO.

For me, Porter's the clear pick. The only reason to be wary is Deepalotta's concerns around roster fit down the road. But surely this board wouldn't argue Fit over BPA, would they?

Excellent points, I'm getting closer to saying Porter is the clear pick as well. There are too many positives that he brings to the table. You know your getting high IQ, high energy and incredibly mature player with ideal size & the requisite athleticism for the SF position. You know your likely getting a quality NBA starter at a position that severly lacks starpower around the league. I think there's a very good chance, much like Beal and much like recent all-star Paul George, that Porter will be a top 5 player at this position because of the overall lack of depth on the wings in the NBA.

I think Porter is really a can't lose proposition.

That is my belief as well. Porter may not be a superstar but I think he'll be a solid starter who makes the occasional All-Star game(kinda like Caron Butler was in his prime).

[Deeptu McPullup]

For me, Porter's the clear pick. The only reason to be wary is Deepalotta's concerns around roster fit down the road. But surely this board wouldn't argue Fit over BPA, would they?

Yes and you would be correct to take that position too. Really, the only way to get fit (ie. a big who's an asset in the playoffs) from where we're at is with a trade either up, down or out. A good trade like that is either there or it's not and you really don't want to force it and settle if it's not there.

[hands11]

Between 1 and 2, Price is the only change. The offense stayed about the same but they took a good hit on D swopping Price for Wall. Wall has defensive impact. Not surprised.

#3 From 1 to 3, Beal is the only change. Remove Beal and both offense and defense take a huge hit.

#4, no Nene, Wall or Webster... all hell breaks loose.

Of all teams in the league and all 5 players line ups regardless of minutes, that Wizards (1) team ranked 10th best in NetRtg

Other teams on that list with 5 players line ups in similar minutes from the top down to 10th
MIA, BOS, LAL, POR, MIA, MEM, NYK, OKC, BOS

Teams after 10th
LAC, MIA, IND, LAL, CHI, MIA, OKC, BRK, MIA, MEM

Notice MIA, LAL, MEM, OKC all have several listing. They are deeper.

I expect Beal to come back in year 2 even better. Added handles. He will be a top 2 guard next year. Wall I expect to pick up where he left off and if he does, he is a top PG. I expect Nene to be a lot healthier and when he is, he one of the better PF in the league.

That #1 line up is nothing to sneeze at and its only going to get better next year. Web is the perfect compliment at SF and Okafor is a solid defensive center double double machine.

What the Wizards most need is Beal and Nene protection. A cheaper Trevor A would be nice. So would a better Price. And they to start planning for Okafor not starting, but Okafor is only 30. They don't really need to replace him right now.

If you go by this data and draft projection slotting VO is probably your pick. Maybe Len if you want to take a shot at a center of the future.

If you trade back, CJM, Zeller, Kelly O, Adams. If you go CJM/VO, I hope they get a Mascala or Jackie Carmichael

I wanta add Withey in the list of center. I like his ability to block shots without fouling and rebound. He is 2nd only to Noel in major teams. But like Noel, he gets pushed around and has no offense. And he has less upside, less athletic and he will be 24. I see some Tiago Splitter how. Withey will get stronger, no doubt.

Otto would be nice, but Webster has already shown he is an effect SF in a model that works for offense and defense. And next years draft has more SF. Plus the Wiz have more cap room. They can trade Trevor A and or Ves as expiring if they really want to move them. Resign Okafor.

I am now sort of thinking it may be better if Otto is selected first or second. Washington keeps continuity with a selection of CJM, Len, or KO. Also, trade down scenarios can add players to beat current Wizards subs Price, Temple, Seraphin, and Booker.

Porter probably won't approach the effectiveness of Webster/Ariza at SF as a rookie. I don't like the idea of a 197 lb. stretch 4. I am second guessing Porter, a guy I've called a good fit and a no -brainer.

Sorry if I was the cause of that

But hey, we are here to get each other to think. You have done that for me in the past. I've actually warmed up to Wolters. Still don't think he will be better then Burke and I see bigger needs for the Wizards right now, but if I could have it all and add a better back up PG, I would. Right now I think it would be best as a better vet PG though. In a couple of years, adding a Wolters would be fine.

But hey, look at it this way, you have 30 more days to go to try on different shoes.

I have rotated though a few.
I started with Otto, VO, CJM in no particular order. I added Withey, Dieng, Muscala, Erik Murphy, Pierre

Latest 2nd round adds are Jackie Carmichael and Colton Iverson

For the top, that turned into CJM, Len, Otto, VO. And I hated Zeller. Now I don't hate him.

Now I think VO might best. CJM and Len I like, but I have concerns. VO I know will fit right away.

I'm actually not liking Otto as the pick though I like following him as a player and I think his personality is a perfect fit. VO may well be BPA, limited downside, lots of upside and fills one of the two biggest team needs, back up SG with some handles who is an efficient scorer and good personality fit.

The other need is Nene/Okafor protection. In a draft with so many bigs, there are lots of ways to fill that need. Kevin S can get another shot. And while not holding my breath, what if Ves actually adds a mid range. That would instantly change his game. He already knows how to pass and set picks. They just need to add some power down there. A Jackie Carmichael or Colton Iverson would do that.

Add those players is a good way to fill out the bench for next year while settings things up nicely for 2014

[Deeptu McPullup]

Excellent points, I'm getting closer to saying Porter is the clear pick as well. There are too many positives that he brings to the table. You know your getting high IQ, high energy and incredibly mature player with ideal size & the requisite athleticism for the SF position. You know your likely getting a quality NBA starter at a position that severly lacks starpower around the league. I think there's a very good chance, much like Beal and much like recent all-star Paul George, that Porter will be a top 5 player at this position because of the overall lack of depth on the wings in the NBA.

I think Porter is really a can't lose proposition.

I'm favoring Office Dipo, but it's not by a big margin; Dipo has most burst and burn, but Porter's probably as close to a perfect score in awareness, instincts and overall decision making as you're going to find.

The "Otto's Evan Turner all over again!" concern breaks down in a number of regards, but especially here.

[Ruzious]

Porter is the safe pick and the obvious pick and a solid pick that I can't complain about - and I won't complain if he is the pick. But I'd still pick Zeller, because I think he's as good a PF/C prospect as Porter is a SF prospect - and I'd almost always take a PF/C over a 3 - all other things being equal.

[tontoz]

Just checking out Len for really the first time.

I like him, out of he, Zeller and Bennett, I think i like them in that order. That frame should be able to pack on some more weight and muscle.

Whats the catch with Len?

He doesn't seem that interested in basketball. His lack of motor is a major concern. The C spot is the team's defensive anchor and in order to be effective he has to be constantly aware and active. I don't see that from Len.

[tontoz]

I am open to picking Bennett but without specific measurements i can't favor him over Porter.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Len - Decent chance of becoming Hibbert good but won't effective games in a positive fashion between 5-6 seasons and that's if he can avoid additional injuries.

Do you take that length of development with the risk of injuries at #3? I'd say no personally. People need to remember that Hibbert was drafted 17th overall, where it's much easier to work on a project with the salary he gets.

You have to look at down the road too. 4 million a year while he's developing and you're going to have a serious decision to make when its time to extend his contract. Due to his potential a team is going to offer him 10 million plus so you'd have to make a decision on him despite him not showing a breakout until a year or so after most likely.

I think its a hard pill to swallow.

But again, like I said I do think he's got a great chance of becoming Hibbert, but again--development time is going to be extensive and the injury concerns are there.

Come on. Really. 5-6 years ?

Len may or may not be worth the #3 but in this draft a #3 isn't like a normal #3.

But he isn't going to take 5-6 years to develop.

But I do agree I want a player that can get it going in their first year at the 3rd pick. I'm pretty sure he will be able to be long, defend and rebound in his first year. Personally, I prefer a center with a stronger trunk.

But because of need at back up SG, I think VO is seriously in the running and he would be able to give you top defense, driving and some shooting right away.

Just depends on their thinking. They could just count on Okafor being the starting center for 2-3 more years, find a better back up ( Withey, Adams, Muscala, Dieng, Colton Iverson, etc ) and keep their eye open for a Gortat.

Right now I'm thinking maybe they don't go center with the first and fill back up center like that.

That would put VO first. He is about a sure a player as there is at the top. You know he is going to play winning basketball.

I agree 100%, hands.

Oladipo is IMO the most talented player in this draft. I think selecting Porter ahead of Oladipo will be a mistake.

[Dark Faze]

What does Oladipo even project to me at the next level though?

Even Ronnie Brewer was a first option for his team and Dion Waiters was a literal backup who averaged more shots per game than Oladipo did as a starter.

Oladipo looks more and more like a really athletic, high IQ guy that has close to no chance to be an all-star everytime you look at his resume.

And nice pickup on Drummond as a big guy who played good D from day one. He's probably the most athletic big I've ever seen besides Shaq though so I'm not sure if comparing him to Len is worth it. There are significant differences in how those guys move on the court. Drummond is basically a guard without the handle the way he moves off the ball.

[FAH1223]

He doesn't seem that interested in basketball. His lack of motor is a major concern. The C spot is the team's defensive anchor and in order to be effective he has to be constantly aware and active. I don't see that from Len.

Len’s stock, despite his erratic play this season, has apparently never wavered among the NBA scouts who regularly attended games at Comcast Center as well as on the road. Though he is viewed by all of them as a project, his athleticism for a player his size and the fact that he does have some range on his jumper makes him desirable among NBA coaches and general managers.

There are a few scouts who are worried that Len might turn out to be another Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a 7-footer who was the fifth overall pick of the Denver Nuggets in 2002 and averaged less than three points and two rebounds in a 172-game career.

When I mentioned the name Darko Milicic, who was infamously picked by the Detroit Pistons behind LeBron James and ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2003, a scout who played in the league said, “Darko didn’t want to play basketball. You can see Alex does.”
Among the big men like Len who are supposed to come out this year, Kentucky freshman Nerlens Noel was badly outplayed by Len when their teams met at the beginning of the year. There are questions about Noel now that he is rehabbing after ACL surgery, but he is projected by most in the top five, including No. 1 overall by some.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-0 ... rlens-noel

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Len - Decent chance of becoming Hibbert good but won't effective games in a positive fashion between 5-6 seasons and that's if he can avoid additional injuries.

Do you take that length of development with the risk of injuries at #3? I'd say no personally. People need to remember that Hibbert was drafted 17th overall, where it's much easier to work on a project with the salary he gets.

You have to look at down the road too. 4 million a year while he's developing and you're going to have a serious decision to make when its time to extend his contract. Due to his potential a team is going to offer him 10 million plus so you'd have to make a decision on him despite him not showing a breakout until a year or so after most likely.

I think its a hard pill to swallow.

But again, like I said I do think he's got a great chance of becoming Hibbert, but again--development time is going to be extensive and the injury concerns are there.

Come on. Really. 5-6 years ?

Len may or may not be worth the #3 but in this draft a #3 isn't like a normal #3.

But he isn't going to take 5-6 years to develop.

But I do agree I want a player that can get it going in their first year at the 3rd pick. I'm pretty sure he will be able to be long, defend and rebound in his first year. Personally, I prefer a center with a stronger trunk.

But because of need at back up SG, I think VO is seriously in the running and he would be able to give you top defense, driving and some shooting right away.

Just depends on their thinking. They could just count on Okafor being the starting center for 2-3 more years, find a better back up ( Withey, Adams, Muscala, Dieng, Colton Iverson, etc ) and keep their eye open for a Gortat.

Right now I'm thinking maybe they don't go center with the first and fill back up center like that.

That would put VO first. He is about a sure a player as there is at the top. You know he is going to play winning basketball.

I agree 100%, hands.

Oladipo is IMO the most talented player in this draft. I think selecting Porter ahead of Oladipo will be a mistake.

The Wizards could select Victor Oladipo and Erik Murphy in a boring, safe draft.

[Dark Faze]

Can someone explain what the ceiling of Oladipo even looks like though?

Because I have a hard time believing a third year college guard who scored under 14 PPG for his college career is going to blow up on offense in the NBA.

For him to have all of those offensive tools his production is pretty weak.

[tontoz]

There are a few scouts who are worried that Len might turn out to be another Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a 7-footer who was the fifth overall pick of the Denver Nuggets in 2002 and averaged less than three points and two rebounds in a 172-game career.

When I mentioned the name Darko Milicic, who was infamously picked by the Detroit Pistons behind LeBron James and ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2003, a scout who played in the league said, “Darko didn’t want to play basketball. You can see Alex does.”

That isn't the impression i got when i watched him. So often he just seemed to be going through the motions. My cousin watches all the MD games and we used to joke about Len. If i didn't see a game i would sometimes ask if Len showed a pulse.