HotelVitale wrote:ComboGuardCity wrote:Teams in the 20s will outright sell their pick this year. OKC doesn't want to pay 2 rookies. You think they'll keep 29? We're giving them an opportunity to still draft unguaranteed players instead of selling the pick. We probably wouldn't even have to give up picks to move back into the 1st.
I know there's no point in talking sense to a wishful-thinking homer, but, once again teams will NOT be selling late firsts from now on, or at least only on very rare and unusual occasions. I've explained this like 5 times on this board: the new CBA lets you cut guys after two seasons, which means if you're picking in the 20s you only have to invest a grand total of $2m ($1m for two seasons) in a 1st rounder. The cheapest you can possibly sign any player for is $500,000 a season, so you're saving at most $1m over 2 years by getting rid of a 1st rounder. And in saving this $1m, you're giving up the chance to save tens of millions of dollars by getting a guy like Ty Lawson, Ryan Anderson, Kenneth Faried, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, George Hill, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson (all drafted in the 20s), who can make very high-level contributions while making $1-2m per year. Getting a big-time contributor on a cheap cheap rookie deal is the absolute jackpot in the modern NBA. The chances that a late first rounder becomes a very good contributor like these guys aren't that great--maybe 15-20%--but the value is so great you have to try. Also, most guys in the 20s at the very least prove worthy of roster spots, for example players like Darrell Arthur, Darren Collison, Courtney Lee, etc, who are the median for picks in the 20s. You're paying these guys peanuts while they're on their rook deals to be backups or 3rd stringers who can give you decent minutes and fill up a roster spot on the cheap. And even if a guy is a pretty lame pick, history shows you can always dump him on another team that still sees some potential (e.g. Omri Casspi, Chr Eyenga, Donte Greene), or just cut them loose after two years (like Nolan Smith this year). I've explained this elsewhere in greater detail, but the numbers are very clear that a later 1st round pick is by far the best investment you can make as a NBA GM.
The only case that you don't make that gamble is if you are a) over the tax, b) already have a completely full roster, and c) have absolutely no other way of cutting $1m. There are no teams that fit those three stipulations this offseason, and I doubt there have been many in NBA history. Teams that don't want to add too much young talent may still be more likely to bundle two picks to move up--e.g. OKC giving us 12 and 29 for our 8, or the move the Cavs did last year--but no GM would outright sell a pick, and only an epically stupid owner would order him to do so. The pick-selling window closed with Robert Sarver's public shaming a few years ago.
You're neglecting the fact that the owner is also getting $3million in the transaction. I guarantee a pick will be straight sold this year.
