Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[closg00]

Cody Zeller shooting the ball VERY well. 72% from NBA 3 point line in drills.

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 5937816576

An impressive workout indeed. If Zeller is a true stretch 4/5 candidate, that might change my assessment of him.

I was going to post this quote as-well. I fantasized about Vesely being bought-out, Zeller drafted by us, and some overlooked stud SF falling to us at 37. But Porter is going to be solid also.

[keynote]

Kyle Weidie ‏@Truth_About_It 12m
Just heard that Luke Babbitt is still WOW-ing people in pre-draft workouts & ****. #SoDraftable! #Metrics #Measurements

Kyle with some nice perspective about all the workout reports we'll hear in the coming weeks...

Boo. Don't steal my joy. Now is the time to get overly excitable about inscrutable tweets. I can't wait to see who dominates a stationary chair in workout this year.

[Dat2U]

Kyle Weidie ‏@Truth_About_It 12m
Just heard that Luke Babbitt is still WOW-ing people in pre-draft workouts & ****. #SoDraftable! #Metrics #Measurements

Kyle with some nice perspective about all the workout reports we'll hear in the coming weeks...

Ah yes, I remember that well. There was a groundswell of Luke Babbitt love around here a few drafts ago that I wanted no part of, lol.

[Ruzious]

Kyle Weidie ‏@Truth_About_It 12m
Just heard that Luke Babbitt is still WOW-ing people in pre-draft workouts & ****. #SoDraftable! #Metrics #Measurements

Kyle with some nice perspective about all the workout reports we'll hear in the coming weeks...

That's good perspective, though there is the case of Kawhi Leonard who's workouts were what supposely led to SA taking him.

[Dark Faze]

I think Zeller can develop a jumper but the empty gym thing is complete nonsense.

[wake20]

IMO here are the options:

1) If Porter is available at 3, you do it. Easy. Next.
2) If Noel is available at 3, you take him.
3) If Noel is available at 3, you package the pick + 2014 1st + fillers for Cousins and #7. Draft BPA at 7 (Bennett, Olidipo, Len, Zeller, whatever).
4) If Noel is avaiable at 3, you package the pick + filler for Monroe + #8. No chance DET does it, but this is how much I think of Noel and also how little other teams can offer. Also, Wall wants vets, not rookies. Give him something to be happy about around here.
5) Think about #3 + filler for Kanter + 14. That's pretty much the only other move I'd consider that has been discussed.
6) If Porter and Noel go 1-2, BPA. If that's Bennett or Len, take him. If it's Burke, you take him. I'm not convinced that taking a need with question marks over BPA is a good move. Parrish (I think) was talking about how Burke or Porter will be the best players from this draft in 5+ years. If management agrees, and we already have John Wall, oh well. Wall and Beal missed a combined ~60 games this year.

Oh f it. No chance EG knows what BPA means.

[nate33]

America with its 290 million people don't produce human being with this type of genetic profile. He is the equivalent of Shaq. How often in the draft does a 300 pounder with a 34 inch vertical come around.

Um. Adams weighs 255 pounds. He has a standing vertical of 28.5" and a max vertical of 33".

You bring up a fair point about his uniqueness though. Here's a list of big men 250 or more with a 28" standing vertical or more with a standing reach of at least 9'-1" or more:

Shaquille O'Neal
Greg Oden
Eddy Curry
B.J. Mullens
Emeka Okafor
Jeremy Tyler
Al Jefferson
Fab Melo
Andre Drummond
Nene Hilario
Chris Taft
Ike Diogu

Interesting that we already have two of them on our roster. Also, looking at that list, it doesn't seem to be filled with superstars.

I think the 250 pound weight cutoff is too high, and ends up weeding out the guys who went pro at a young age before they packed on more weight. Drop that threshold to 240 and you add Zo, Howard and Favors to the list (plus a few scrubs). Add an agility threshold of 11.9 or lower and you end up with a pretty good list of prospects, with most of the scrubs weeded out. Here's a screen of players with standing verticals of 28" or more, weight of 240 or more, standing reach of 9-1 or more and lane agility of 11.9 or less:

Shaquille ONeal
Alonzo Mourning
Greg Oden
Dwight Howard
B.J. Mullens
Jeremy Tyler
Derrick Favors
Andre Drummond
Nene Hilario
Chris Taft
Stephen Adams

That's 10 guys on the list not including Adams. (I'm assuming Shaq and Zo meet the lane agility threshold.) Of those 10, 3 are HOFers, 3 more are/will be high quality bigs for 8-10 years, 1 had a promising career ruined by injury, 1 is a bench scrub, and 2 are duds that didn't stick around in the league. Interestingly, the scrub (Mullens) was picked 21st and the duds (Taft and Tyler) were picked in the 2nd round so clearly there were well known problems with their game. Essentially, all of the freak physical specimens who were picked in the lottery ended up being excellent NBA players whom any team would have been happy to take with a #3 overall pick.

That's a pretty powerful argument to take Adams. If not at #3, trade up to the Dallas pick and take him then.

EDIT: My guess is that Tim Duncan would make both lists, but there are no recorded standing reach, jumping or agility measurements for him.

[jivelikenice]

But in a normal draft does he get taken in the late lottery/teens or is he a late 1st who gets picked in the Mullens range?

[nate33]

But in a normal draft does he get taken in the late lottery/teens or is he a late 1st who gets picked in the Mullens range?

Good question.

Mullens was drafted 21st purely on his physical profile. He was terrible as a freshman at OSU and barely played. I think, when the dust settles, Adams is pretty sure to go in the lottery. He has a great physical profile, and was at least a solid player as a freshman, even if he didn't dominate. Also, Adams at least as the physicality to play the position. He's not afraid to mix it up. Mullens is a wanna be small forward allergic to contact.

I don't know if I can be convinced to take Adams at #3, but WizD's argument definitely has me willing to trade our 2014 draft pick plus cash and our 2nd rounder to buy the Dallas pick and take him at #13.

Normally, I'm against weighing a player's physical profile so much more heavily than his actual college production, but you can make a case that it's appropriate to do so when you're talking about centers. The universe of qualified applicants for the position is so small that if you just meet the physical criteria while having a modicum of coordination, you're pretty much a sure bet to have a quality career.

[jivelikenice]

I still think the Wiards can afford to gamble on Bennett, the fact that Vesley was a bust shouldn't make the Wizards too cautious. After Kwame Brown didn't pan out as a rookie, teams were afraid to take Amare Stoudemire who slipped all the way to #8.

Still, right now, I have Porter ahead of Bennett. Then again, I haven't seen Bennett play that much except for the NCAA tournament except where he struggled like Porter. I have defensive concerns on whether Bennett can guard 3s or 4s. Yes it would be nice to have a 20 + ppg scorer but not if he is like Antawn Jamison on defense.

You might be able to risk it if you could at least get him in your gym for a workout & see him at the combine. Considering he can't wortkout for you and hasn't tested out, you can't take the risk IMO. In regards to his defense, I think that could be corrected via team culture and coaching, but if he's as lazy and unaware on that side as ppl have said, he might drive us insane against teams that spread it out or have stretch 4s....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

IMO you don't draft Oladipo unless your planning to utilize small ball lineups with Oladipo or Beal at SF and have specific gameplans in mind to take advantage of the speed/athleticism on the perimeter. If Beal is getting 34 minutes a night at SG, then Oladipo should see 14 at SG and 10-14 at SF. I don't Beal playing PG is a realistic option or something we should persue either.

If Porter is off the board, I'd likely take Oladipo and try to make it work.

I would just as soon trade down for CJ McCollum or Kelly Olynyk.

I recall the Bullets having young Webber, Howard, and Rasheed. The Knicks drafted Rod Strickland the season after Mark Jackson won ROTY. The Cavs drafted Kevin Johnson after Mark Price was a young phenom. Later, Johnson was the star PG when Phoenix also had rookie Steve Nash and third-year Sam Cassell. Cassell and others were traded for Jason Kidd. Needless to say Nash didn't play.

I believe Oladipo is a superior athlete but he would probably be terrific trade bait.

[pancakes3]

America with its 290 million people don't produce human being with this type of genetic profile. He is the equivalent of Shaq. How often in the draft does a 300 pounder with a 34 inch vertical come around.

2012: Drummond
2011: Vucevic
2010: Cousins, Monroe, Sanders
2009: Nobody
2008: Hibbert, Lopez, Love, Pekovic
2007: M. Gasol, Horford, Noah

So maybe not EVERY 10 years?

... some of you have been here for nearly 10 years and still fall for the same draft hype year after year and haven't built your own independent evaluation criteria.

I'm pretty sure Nivek done exactly what you said in building his own independent evaluation criteria - one that isn't dependent on how bowlegged someone is, or handspeed, or how well someone can execute a behind-the-knee-dribble-one-legged-hop-back-jump-shot.

In fact, I'd go so far as to argue that you wanting someone bowlegged enough to defend Lebron, skilled enough to pull off Dirk's fadeaway, or beefy enough to defend Hibbert for the next 10 years is reactionary and buying into the hype much moreso than anyone else. You take whoever's successful - Lebron/Dirk/Hibbert and try to find players to copycat their success rather than determine what talent looks like on a fundamental level.

That being said, i do think Adams is top 10 talent - just not top 5 talent. Then again, I'm not totally convinced that Porter/Bennett/Dipo are undisputed top 5 talents either.

Random draft thoughts:
- The cats should trade down. I'm not sure what their plan is but drafting Bennett/Dipo with their lone draft pick this year is definitely not the best way to infuse talent to their talent-starved roster.
- Len in NoLa is a best of both worlds situation. Len has a great setup man and no pressure as the 5th banana down there. A lineup of Vasquez/Gordon/Aminu/Davis/Len is potentially better than Memphis.
- If the NBA had a hard knocks training camp type show, Shabazz in Sacramento would be my vote for draftee/locale.
- I bet OKC drafts Adams with haste and alacrity. They'll also amnesty Perkins with haste and alacrity.
- I know the Mavs have their hopes set on Dwight but Plumlee or Dieng wouldn't be bad consolation prizes. They just need a good SF.
- The Hawks can go in a million different directions with their 17/18. A big C allows Horford to move back to PF finally and they won't miss Josh Smith too badly.

[Dark Faze]

I like Adams but can't see us going after him with the #3.

I'd take him over Bennett though.

[tontoz]

Cody Zeller shooting the ball VERY well. 72% from NBA 3 point line in drills.

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 5937816576

An impressive workout indeed. If Zeller is a true stretch 4/5 candidate, that might change my assessment of him.

I was going to post this quote as-well. I fantasized about Vesely being bought-out, Zeller drafted by us, and some overlooked stud SF falling to us at 37. But Porter is going to be solid also.

Zeller's combine showing make him at least an option if he proves he can shoot. Generally guys in practice will shoot roughly double the percentage they would shoot in games. 72% is practice is obviously good, even moreso if he is moving around not standing in one spot.

It is really easy to get into a groove standing in one spot.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

WizD does make a point. When's the last time an NBA center from New Zealand wasn't spectacular?

Good thing Adams is not from nearby (to NZ) Australia.

Between Luc Longley and Andrew Bogut we're talking something short of spectacular.

[nate33]

Zeller's combine showing make him at least an option if he proves he can shoot. Generally guys in practice will shoot roughly double the percentage they would shoot in games. 72% is practice is obviously good, even moreso if he is moving around not standing in one spot.

It is really easy to get into a groove standing in one spot.

Agreed. Workout or not, it proves that Zeller has a pretty good shooting stroke. For me, the biggest question about Zeller is whether or not he could play PF skillwise. Physically, he's more than adequate to handle the position. If he can shoot, then he moves way up my board.

At this point, assuming Zeller's reported shooting is for real and is seen again and again in the workouts, I'd be fine we ended up with him at #3. At least in Zeller's case, it's not that he has made a dramatic improvement in shooting during the workouts. His track record shooting the ball wasn't bad, it was merely non-existent because perimeter shooting wasn't required in Indiana's system. Zeller was a 75% FT shooter, which is excellent for a sophomore big man.

I still like Porter a bit more, but Zeller is good enough. I'm pretty happy about this development. I'm now 100% certain we will get a very good player at #3 who can fit into our roster right away. (Well, I guess Noel would take a few years.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kyle Weidie ‏@Truth_About_It 12m
Just heard that Luke Babbitt is still WOW-ing people in pre-draft workouts & ****. #SoDraftable! #Metrics #Measurements

Kyle with some nice perspective about all the workout reports we'll hear in the coming weeks...

Ah yes, I remember that well. There was a groundswell of Luke Babbitt love around here a few drafts ago that I wanted no part of, lol.

Guilty as charged.

Babbitt shot well in the D-League FWIW. 20 Pts, 7.5 Rebs and 25.0 PER. (24 Pts, 9 Rebs per-36 minutes)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/nbd ... lu01d.html

I still think he and Almond can play.

[tontoz]

Zeller's combine showing make him at least an option if he proves he can shoot. Generally guys in practice will shoot roughly double the percentage they would shoot in games. 72% is practice is obviously good, even moreso if he is moving around not standing in one spot.

It is really easy to get into a groove standing in one spot.

Agreed. Workout or not, it proves that Zeller has a pretty good shooting stroke. For me, the biggest question about Zeller is whether or not he could play PF skillwise. Physically, he's more than adequate to handle the position. If he can shoot, then he moves way up my board.

At this point, assuming Zeller's reported shooting is for real and is seen again and again in the workouts, I'd be fine we ended up with him at #3. I still like Porter a bit more, but Zeller is good enough. I'm pretty happy about this development. I'm now 100% certain there will be a very good player available at #3 who can fit into our roster right away. (Well, I guess Noel would take a few years.)

FYP

[pancakes3]

I think we have to redefine our notions of what a sf, pf, and c are in today's NBA. 'Melo, Durant, and Lebron are redefining the PF position. the 2, 3, and 4 spots are bleeding into each other. I think Zeller having range still serves him well as a C. He doesn't have to be Roy Hibbert out there. KG is a stretch-center and the Gasol brothers have shown that Centers that can stick an 18 footer once or twice a game can find great success. Positions are moreso defined defensively and in that respect, Zeller is still a C in my eyes.

[nate33]

I don't think Zeller is a center on defense. Not with a standing reach of just 8'10". I'm sure he can steal some minutes at center from time to time, but I don't think he's a starting-caliber, full time center. I see him as a starting PF who might slide to center in crunch time when teams tend to go small.