The 2013 NBA Free Agency Thread

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

DeJuan Blair averages 15 and 11 per 36 minutes. He fouls a lot and is not a good defender. OTOH Blair is 24 years old and has a career playoff PER of 22.6.

He made 1 million this season.

I think two years and 3,5 million for Blair would be a steal. It would be half what Vesely makes.

[rockymac52]

After taking a thorough look at this year's free agents, I really wish we had a little bit more cap room. I'm not talking about going after a max or near-max contract free agent, I'm just talking about bringing in 3-4 very solid guys on very affordable deals.

Anyways, a lot will depend on who we draft (obviously), but I've been operating under the assumption that we draft Porter, because I think it's by far the most likely scenario.

I think we still re-sign Webster even if we draft Porter, although the minutes distribution will be tricky. Webster will have to play a lot more SG, which I think he is capable of, although I can't decide if he's better suited at the 3 or the 2. But we can find a way to make it work for this next season, then let Ariza walk or maybe trade him this summer or at the deadline to balance out the roster.

I wouldn't break the bank on Webster, so to speak, although I really value him on our roster going forward. There's obviously no way we should pay anything above the MLE, and I doubt that would even be an issue, because no other team is going to offer him that. Put me in the camp that's hesitant to pay him the full MLE though. I think we can realistically re-sign Webster for something like $10 million over 3 years. I know the Wizards seem to have a history of bidding against themselves in situations like this, but step back for a second and think about what other teams are realistically going to offer Webster upwards of $4 million per year.

Danny Green is a pretty good comparison to Webster, all things considered. Green was a free agent last year and got a 3 year deal for $12 million. Green is probably a better defender than Webster as well. I can understand signing Webster to a 3 year deal for $12 million. But going anything above that seems unnecessary. Yes, it's only $1 million per year, and having that extra $1 million might not get us much of anything else, but I'm not buying that argument. It's asset management 101. You don't pay more than you need to, even if it's only a marginal increase.

Last year Marco Belinelli signed a 1 year deal for about $2 million, despite having plenty of fairly productive seasons in the past and still being pretty young. There's my example for you Nate. I love Webster, but if I'm given the choice of Webster for $5 million a year or Belinelli for $2-3 million a year, there's a good chance I'm going with Belinelli.

But honestly, what other NBA teams are going to look at Webster this summer and be willing to commit $5 million a year for the next 3-4 years given his inconsistency in the past and his injury history? No doubt plenty of teams could use a floor spacer like Webster, but I don't see many spending the full MLE on that type of player. OJ Mayo couldn't even get the full MLE last year, he only got $4 million. Teams aren't as inclined to use the full MLE these days than you think.

I think Webster wants to stay here, we want him to stay here, and he's willing to re-sign for a reasonable salary in the range of $3-4 million per year for 2-4 years. Like I said earlier, I'm expecting a 3 year deal for $3.3 million per year. I would be slightly disappointed if we spent the full MLE on him, although I'd still be happy to have him on the team, and it's not the end of the world.

I didn't intend for this post to be about Webster, so I'll go ahead and submit this and then start another post for the other free agents I'd like to target.

[rockymac52]

Other free agents I would like us to pursue in addition to Webster:

1. Cole Aldrich

I think we would be able to sign Aldrich for either the veteran minimum salary for 1-2 years or at most the BAE for 1-2 years. There's no way he commands more money than that.

I think Aldrich is an absolute stud in the making, but I'll admit that I am concerned that he's been buried at the end of the bench in his first 3 seasons with the Thunder, Rockets, and Kings. He seems like a very cheap addition that could have a lot of upside, and he fills a serious need of ours in a defensive-minded center that can rebound, block, and score efficiently (albeit limited). Let him be our 3rd center behind Okafor and Seraphin, but also compete with Seraphin for the main backup job, getting somewhere between 10-15 MPG. He might be very limited offensively, but he is actually a very capable scorer at the rim, and has been on pace for about 10 points per 36 minutes so far in his career, which is decent for a defensive-minded center. Consider what people are projecting Nerlens Noel to be. A great defensive player that can block shots, rebound the ball very well, but has no offensive game other than easy lay ins and dunks. Noel is probably going to be picked 1st overall. Or compare Steven Adams, who brings the same basic skills. Why not pick up Aldrich this summer on a very cheap deal and let him be a great backup for now, with the possibility of further development in the future?

2. Brandan Wright

I can't decide how much Wright is going to go for as a free agent, or if the Mavs will even let him get away. I know he's said he'd like to return to the Mavs, and he's also a fan favorite there. But if they're chasing Dwight this summer, they may not want to commit to another big man, and more importantly, they may not be able to offer him a very big deal if they want to maintain the cap space needed to sign a star player.

Wright is criminally underrated, IMO. His biggest issue is staying healthy, which I'm sure might concern plenty of you, but he seemed fine this season. His production has always been off the charts. He is an incredibly efficient offensive player who can play both PF and C, and he's a pretty good defender as well. Seriously, just do yourself a favor and check his stats real quick. He deserves to be starting somewhere. I kinda doubt we could sign him with the BAE or the remainder of the MLE after signing Webster, but if we somehow could, that'd be awesome. If we decide to let Webster go, I'd be a big fan of offering something like $3-4 million for 3-4 years to Wright.

3. Patty Mills

I expect him to opt out of his deal because he's getting paid basically a minimum salary, and he's fallen out of the deep guard rotation in San Antonio. He's a lights out shooter, and while not your traditional PG, he'd be fine for a backup to Wall, IMO. I think we could sign him for the likes of $2 million for 1-2 years.

4. I also really like Gary Neal and DeJuan Blair, but since others have talked about them at length here, I'll leave it at that for now. I suspect the Spurs will be able to bring back Neal for another year, but they'll let Blair walk. Just my prediction.

[Knighthonor]

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[Ruzious]

Really interesting choices, Rocky. Wright's stats have actually been - per minutes - spectacular - each of the last 2 seasons. At his weight, he's probably best used at under 20 minutes a game, but those are very productive minutes. And Aldrich showed signs last season when he finally got a bit of PT with Sacramento - showing very good rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. If they draft Porter and don't re-sign Webster, maybe they have enough room with the MLE to sign both Wright and Aldrich - though it's unlikely - as someone's likely to give Wright significant dollars. But Aldrich could be nice cheap depth - and as mentioned - so could Blair.

[rockymac52]

Really interesting choices, Rocky. Wright's stats have actually been - per minutes - spectacular - each of the last 2 seasons. At his weight, he's probably best used at under 20 minutes a game, but those are very productive minutes. And Aldrich showed signs last season when he finally got a bit of PT with Sacramento - showing very good rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. If they draft Porter and don't re-sign Webster, maybe they have enough room with the MLE to sign both Wright and Aldrich - though it's unlikely - as someone's likely to give Wright significant dollars. But Aldrich could be nice cheap depth - and as mentioned - so could Blair.

Thanks, glad you agree. I really think we could sign Aldrich for the vet minimum at this point, as it seems like no one wants him these days, although I genuinely do not understand why. We could definitely get Aldrich for the BAE at $2 million a year.

Then we would have the entire MLE to use if we didn't re-sign Webster (although that's not my recommendation necessarily). I think if we offered Wright the full MLE, he'd sign with us in a heartbeat. Although he has been insanely productive when he's healthy and on the court, and I'm sure plenty of NBA teams took notice, I'm not sure what the market for him is going to be. Like you suggested, there are very legitimate concerns that he's better suited as a backup, getting around 20 MPG. If that's the case, then it's going to be hard for him to justify the full MLE, and any team that offers him that, even if they want him to start, is going to be taking a decently sized risk that he falls apart when placed in a bigger role. I'd want to sign him to backup Nene though, where he actually could be even more productive than he has been in Dallas, where he's often forced to play center because of Dirk, and while he has the height and wingspan to alter shots at center, he's pretty thin at about 210 pounds, so he's definitely better suited at PF. I'd be hesitant to pay him more than $4 million a year, and that might be pushing it, but if we want to lure him away from the Mavs, that's probably what it would take. I don't see it working out for us knowing our front office's priorities, but I think it would be a very good idea to explore it further.

[nate33]

I don't see anything in Cole Aldrich. Take away his 2 good games at the end of this season (one in a 21 point loss against Houston's run-and-gun, the other against a resting OKC who started Thabeet and played Daniel Orton for 21 minutes) and his numbers remain in line with his career numbers. In other words, he stinks.

I really like the Brandan Wright suggestion. He is probably the most underrated player in the NBA right now. I'd definitely pay $3-4M a year for him if we had the cap room to do it. I really wish there was a way to get him while keeping Webster, but I just don't see how it's possible.

Mills is another great idea. He is indeed a great shooter and might be the Daniel Gibson/Steve Kerr type of PG I've been looking for to pair with Wall. (i.e. a quality undersized shooting guard who is available cheaply because he only fits on the few teams with oversized PG's.)

[rockymac52]

Honestly, if we could come away with 3 current Spurs in free agency - Neal, Blair, and Mills - that'd be a pretty interesting proposition.

I'm thinking we could offer Neal something like 4 years $16 million (MLE), Blair 2 years $4 million (BAE), and Mills 2 years $2.2 million (remaining MLE). Not sure if that would be enough for any of them, but it might be close! Those are all solid options off the bench.

[rockymac52]

I don't see anything in Cole Aldrich. Take away his 2 good games at the end of this season (one in a 21 point loss against Houston's run-and-gun, the other against a resting OKC who started Thabeet and played Daniel Orton for 21 minutes) and his numbers remain in line with his career numbers. In other words, he stinks.

You're gonna have to explain this one a bit more for me, because I don't see what's so bad about his career numbers. His career per 36 stats are 9 PPG, 10.5 RPG (3 ORPG), and 2.5 BPG. Now, I don't think it's realistic to have him playing 36 minutes or even close to that yet, and he fouls a bit more than you'd like, but for a backup center for less than $2 million a year I think you could do a hell of a lot worse. The guy rebounds, blocks, defends, and scores efficiently. That's exactly what you want out of your center. Please shed some light on what makes Aldrich so bad (other than the fact that he went to kU).

[nate33]

Honestly, if we could come away with 3 current Spurs in free agency - Neal, Blair, and Mills - that'd be a pretty interesting proposition.

I'm thinking we could offer Neal something like 4 years $16 million (MLE), Blair 2 years $4 million (BAE), and Mills 2 years $2.2 million (remaining MLE). Not sure if that would be enough for any of them, but it might be close! Those are all solid options off the bench.

Don't need both Neal and Mills. One or the other is enough. I also don't like Blair that much. He's another grunt in the frontcourt - just a guy who will bang against people. We already have Okafor and Boozer for that (and Nene too). If we add a frontcourt player, I want it to be a guy with skills. I like Wright MUCH better.

[nate33]

I don't see anything in Cole Aldrich. Take away his 2 good games at the end of this season (one in a 21 point loss against Houston's run-and-gun, the other against a resting OKC who started Thabeet and played Daniel Orton for 21 minutes) and his numbers remain in line with his career numbers. In other words, he stinks.

You're gonna have to explain this one a bit more for me, because I don't see what's so bad about his career numbers. His career per 36 stats are 9 PPG, 10.5 RPG (3 ORPG), and 2.5 BPG. Now, I don't think it's realistic to have him playing 36 minutes or even close to that yet, and he fouls a bit more than you'd like, but for a backup center for less than $2 million a year I think you could do a hell of a lot worse. The guy rebounds, blocks, defends, and scores efficiently. That's exactly what you want out of your center. Please shed some light on what makes Aldrich so bad (other than the fact that he went to kU).

9 PPG and 10.5 RPB per 36 does stink, particularly when it comes with 2.0 turnovers (on anemic usage) and 5.7 fouls. And he did all of that in pure garbage time. The guy totaled 388 minutes last year. He only plays in completely meaningless minutes against other end-of-benchers or in blowouts when nobody is playing D.

[rockymac52]

I don't see anything in Cole Aldrich. Take away his 2 good games at the end of this season (one in a 21 point loss against Houston's run-and-gun, the other against a resting OKC who started Thabeet and played Daniel Orton for 21 minutes) and his numbers remain in line with his career numbers. In other words, he stinks.

You're gonna have to explain this one a bit more for me, because I don't see what's so bad about his career numbers. His career per 36 stats are 9 PPG, 10.5 RPG (3 ORPG), and 2.5 BPG. Now, I don't think it's realistic to have him playing 36 minutes or even close to that yet, and he fouls a bit more than you'd like, but for a backup center for less than $2 million a year I think you could do a hell of a lot worse. The guy rebounds, blocks, defends, and scores efficiently. That's exactly what you want out of your center. Please shed some light on what makes Aldrich so bad (other than the fact that he went to kU).

9 PPG and 10.5 RPB per 36 does stink, particularly when it comes with 2.0 turnovers (on anemic usage) and 5.7 fouls. And he did all of that in pure garbage time. The guy totaled 388 minutes last year. He only plays in completely meaningless minutes against other end-of-benchers or in blowouts when nobody is playing D.

This might not mean much, but he was incredibly productive and much more assertive while playing 30 MPG when he played in the D-League. It's fair to say he might not ever become a good starting center, but all we need is a guy to backup Okafor. We have about 20 MPG at center when Okafor's out to take care of. Some of those minutes could go to Nene if he slides over to center. And then Seraphin should get 10-15 of them, as long as he's working hard to improve. But I'd be happy to give 10 MPG to Aldrich, where most of his time would be against the other team's backups. Synergy loves Aldrich, especially on defense. Admittedly it's a small sample size, but he's been dominant defensively. I think backup C is a huge issue for us. Seraphin hasn't been getting the job done. I feel confident that Aldrich could be a quality backup C. And I'm definitely ready to take that risk for a 1-2 year deal for $1-2 million.

[rockymac52]

9 PPG and 10.5 RPB per 36 does stink, particularly when it comes with 2.0 turnovers (on anemic usage) and 5.7 fouls. And he did all of that in pure garbage time. The guy totaled 388 minutes last year. He only plays in completely meaningless minutes against other end-of-benchers or in blowouts when nobody is playing D.

Does it though? What do you expect Nerlens Noel to average per 36 in his 3rd year in the league or so? What about Steven Adams? I can't imagine their stats would be all that different. Those per 36 averages are pretty similar to what Brendan Haywood was giving us when he was at his peak as a Wizard. I'd love to have Brendan Haywood in his prime as our backup center.

[Dat2U]

I like Paul Millsap & Carl Landry as potential S&T canidates. Millsap for Ariza & Seraphin may have some value for Utah. Or Landry for a combo of one of Ernie's kids. I suspect a team would be willing to take a flier on Seraphin. I'm sure Booker has some value as a respectable backup on the cheap.

In the backcourt, my favorite is Nate Robinson (younger than Jarrett Jack), who I suggested last season as well. I think he's grown and matured as a player and is an ideal 3rd guard at this stage. Look what A.J. Price did while Wall was out then look at what Robinson did for Chicago. Nite & day! Going into next season with Price and/or some rookie 3rd stringer would be unacceptable IMO after what happened this past year.

[LyricalRico]

^ Hmmm...this seems to only mention cap space, not exceptions:

In order to submit a bid for a partial waiver claim, the bidding team must have cap room equivalent to the portion of their bid that would be charged to team salary in that season, plus the amount of any likely bonuses (see question number 72) for that season. If necessary, teams can create this cap room by waiving non-guaranteed players, but not by making trades. The team must make the cap room available immediately upon being awarded the amnesty claim.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q67

Yeah, I noticed that. But then I googled an article about the Lakers using their MLE to bid on amnestied players. Didn't the Clippers use their BAE to bid on Chauncey Billups?

Maybe that's something else, called "Stern's Los Angeles market exception"? LOL

[Ruzious]

I don't see anything in Cole Aldrich. Take away his 2 good games at the end of this season (one in a 21 point loss against Houston's run-and-gun, the other against a resting OKC who started Thabeet and played Daniel Orton for 21 minutes) and his numbers remain in line with his career numbers. In other words, he stinks.

I really like the Brandan Wright suggestion. He is probably the most underrated player in the NBA right now. I'd definitely pay $3-4M a year for him if we had the cap room to do it. I really wish there was a way to get him while keeping Webster, but I just don't see how it's possible.

Mills is another great idea. He is indeed a great shooter and might be the Daniel Gibson/Steve Kerr type of PG I've been looking for to pair with Wall. (i.e. a quality undersized shooting guard who is available cheaply because he only fits on the few teams with oversized PG's.)

Meh. It really doesn't make sense to take those 2 games out for Aldrich unless you take all of his minutes out, because before then, he was an end of the bench player playing against scrubs. The sample size against good competition isn't there yet. But he's basically a poor man's Haywood - who seemed to be your favorite player on the Wizards. The question is how poor. I think he's a better rebounder than Haywood, just as good a shot-blocker, but question his lateral quickness on defense. Still, I'd rather give him a shot then go with Seraphin. That speaks to how badly the Wiz need front court help.

The thing with Mills that I doubt him on is - while he shot very well with SA, he was never known as a shooter until then. He was a so-so shooter for a smallish school in college. Everyone seems to shoot well with SA. Also, most short guards who make it in the NBA have strong builds. He combines short with skinny. I'd pass.

[nate33]

If he was anything close to a poor man's Haywood, he would have gotten more than 388 total minutes last year.

[Ruzious]

If he was anything close to a poor man's Haywood, he would have gotten more than 388 total minutes last year.

No, "poor man's" means worse. It doesn't go into how much worse. Remembering watching Haywood in his first 2 seasons in the NBA, he was a poor man's Haywood back then. He was a terrible player who often couldn't hang on to the ball to save his life. He played more than 388 minutes, because he was on a developing team. Aldrich's time has mostly been spent with a team trying to compete for championships.

[nate33]

If he was anything close to a poor man's Haywood, he would have gotten more than 388 total minutes last year.

No, "poor man's" means worse. It doesn't go into how much worse. Remembering watching Haywood in his first 2 seasons in the NBA, he was a poor man's Haywood back then. He was a terrible player who often couldn't hang on to the ball to save his life. He played more than 388 minutes, because he was on a developing team. Aldrich's time has mostly been spent with a team trying to compete for championships.

Haywood played 4700 minutes over his first three seasons and was posting substantial on/off differentials by his 2nd year. He was a bad offensive player, but he was an extremely effective defender almost from Day 1.

Aldrich has played a total of 703 minutes in his entire 3-year career.

I'm done arguing about this. Maybe you and rockymac are right that Aldrich is a diamond in the rough, but I wouldn't use those stats as proof. It would be one thing if he was getting 800 or so minutes a year. That could be an indication that he's pretty solid but simply can't find many minutes because his team has depth up front. But if he is just getting 300 minutes a year, then he's a pure garbage time player that has done nothing in 3 years to ever prove to his coach that he deserves playing time. Those stats that he is posting in such limited playing time are completely worthless.

[Ruzious]

If he was anything close to a poor man's Haywood, he would have gotten more than 388 total minutes last year.

No, "poor man's" means worse. It doesn't go into how much worse. Remembering watching Haywood in his first 2 seasons in the NBA, he was a poor man's Haywood back then. He was a terrible player who often couldn't hang on to the ball to save his life. He played more than 388 minutes, because he was on a developing team. Aldrich's time has mostly been spent with a team trying to compete for championships.

Haywood played 4700 minutes over his first three seasons and was posting substantial on/off differentials by his 2nd year. He was a bad offensive player, but he was an extremely effective defender almost from Day 1.

Aldrich has played a total of 703 minutes in his entire 3-year career.

I'm done arguing about this. Maybe you and rockymac are right that Aldrich is a diamond in the rough, but I wouldn't use those stats as proof. It would be one thing if he was getting 800 or so minutes a year. That could be an indication that he's pretty solid but simply can't find many minutes because his team has depth up front. But if he is just getting 300 minutes a year, then he's a pure garbage time player that has done nothing in 3 years to ever prove to his coach that he deserves playing time. Those stats that he is posting in such limited playing time are completely worthless.

You can believe what you want to about Haywood, but he sucked royally his 1st 2 years here. We used to post about here regularly in RealGM saying things like - It's almost impossible to believe a player who spent 4 years at UNC - with one of the greatest college coaches of all-time - could be so fundamentally flawed - and not just on offense.

Re Aldrich, here's Draftexpress' view on him from 2 seasons ago:

Drafted in the late lottery to one of the deepest and most talented teams in the NBA, Cole Aldrich has spent a good amount of time on assignment in the D-League so far this season. This makes sense when considering the close proximity and relationship Oklahoma City enjoys with its affiliate in Tulsa, a team the Thunder both own and operate.

Aldrich isn't being spoon-fed minutes or touches the way you normally see allocated NBA players in the D-League, as he's averaging less field goal attempts per minute than he did in college and is playing just 27 minutes (of 48) per game. It appears that Tulsa is trying to more closely replicate the role he'll be expected to grow into on Oklahoma City eventually, which is that of a gritty role-player rather than a go-to guy. Aldrich's offensive numbers thus aren't impressive at all relative to other far less talented players in this league at 9 points per contest, as foul trouble and injuries have also held him back somewhat this year.

Largely the same player we profiled not too long ago in college, Aldrich has a bright future in the NBA thanks to his excellent combination of size, length, smarts and toughness. Capable of doing some damage in the post with simple, fundamentally sound post-moves, he does a nice job of passing out of double teams, moving to open spaces in the paint for drop-off passes, and finishing strong when the situation calls for it. He knocks down his free throws at an excellent clip (81% in the D-League), crashes the offensive glass effectively, and keeps mistakes to a minimum.

Defensively, he's a major presence inside the paint with his 7-5 wingspan and excellent body. Nothing about Aldrich's game is particularly flashy and no one really expects him to develop into more than a lunch-pail type role-playing hustle guy. With that said, players in his mold aren't easy to come by, which makes him a good investment for Oklahoma City to work with, especially since they have the ability to speed up his development on their D-League team.


From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2VAWjJdW5
http://www.draftexpress.com