Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[The Consiglieri]

I would have been fine with the 8th pick for Illyasova, but not the 3rd. We are going to have cap room. There is a fair chance we could just use the 3rd pick and then add an Illyasova caliber FA next year. I would rather have Porter or Len on a rookie contract than Illyasova on his current contract.

Any work on whether we are working out Erik Murphy?

Totally agree with this. Moreso, there is still the chance that the #3 pick turns out to be an elite player. Only if the Wizards determine there is virtually no chance of anyone available doesn't have a chance to be elite would I consider the trade down possibilities.

Bottom line, it would suck to find out a year or two later that Porter or Bennett ends up in the All-star game and we're sitting there with a player tapping our cap room that is only decent.

I don't know if anyone else has already posted it, and I'm sorry if someone did, but I came across this at hoopshype

"...Peter Vecsey: And another thing; report on line that Bucks and Wizards are discussing Ersan-No. 3 swap is crazy wrong. Herb Kohl likes Ersan more than me....."


I'll be relieved if that's true. Just how stupid does this F.O. have to prove itself to be? Do they think they haven't made the case strongly enough yet, and want to make a particularly spectacular closing for the jury? I'll be relieved when we make the pick, and keep it so long as it's not idiotic.

[payitforward]

Another way to look at it??

DX refreshed its top 100 prospects yesterday: http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/. Here's a scenario:

If we take Len, get Wolters at #38 and grab Dubljevic #54, we gain 22 positions vs. their value rankings. Then if we sign Arselan Kazemi (they rank him #48 but project him to go undrafted) thinking of him as pick #61 for these purposes -- we gain another 13 positions vs. their value rankings.

On the other hand if we take Porter, get Lorenzo Brown @ #38, nab Siva #54, we lose 22 positions vs. their value rankings. If we then sign James Southerland undrafted (again imagining him as going #61) we lose another 12 vs. their value rankings

Right now DR projects us to take Porter, Carmichael and Dubljevic -- that's just about break even vs. their Top 100 because of where they rank Dubljevic. I like Porter, can't convince myself to like Carmichael, and don't want Dubljevic (under contract in Spain and maybe too slow to play in the NBA anyway).

As of today, I'd pick Porter (a *much* surer thing than Len, and his upside is underrated), Wolters and then Kazemi. The one guy who might be worth a flyer instead of Kazemi is B.J. Young -- (his middle name should be "Very") -- who had a heck of a freshman year followed by a heck of a fall-off as a sophomore, but only in 3-point shooting.

[The Consiglieri]

I really like Porter. I think he may be the best SF prospect to come out since Durant. He's going to add value immediately because he plays with a high IQ. He seems like such a neat fit alongside Wall & Beal. If he's gone I'm more willing to deal but I would want more than just Ilyasova for the 3rd. I hope it's not just Dunleavy with us sending out Ariza. That would be just regrettable.

I'd definitely do Sanders & Ilyasova for a combination of anything on our roster outside of Wall & Beal.

I'd consider Ilyasova & Henson but only if I didn't have to send Ariza.

I'd consider Ilyasova and an unprotected '14 pick for Ernie's Kids

But I would only do the last two if Porter was off the board.

The problem is that I imagine Sanders wouldn't be "and another layer", and I've already heard they want to prominently feature Henson, not deal him. They just resigned superchucker Ellis. So what player does that leave us? It just sounds like a garbage deal to me.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ugh. I hate trade discussion. So pointless, so boring -- none of you guys has any idea what you are talking about, clearly. Can we go back to blowing smoke out our butts about the draft? It's at least interesting.

The reason I talk drafts in this thread is because I believe trading the pick might serve better than drafting.

Porter at #3 is the likely outcome. But there's a real possibility Cleveland snatches him up first.

I see Oladipo or Burke at three, followed by a deal as a powerful way to possibly transform the lineup.

[WizarDynasty]

If we are not getting a a top 10 pick back in the trade then no way am i including Ilyasova and the number 3 overall pick in any deal. Minnesota's 15 pick is garbage. Ilyasova is not a starter on a deep playoff team. He is nice to have when you wanna change your offense up the way the Spurs do with Matt Bonner stretching the floor with his threes. How hard is it to find a steve novak, matt bonner type player? Bennett and Adams are franchise level players. Bucks don't have a top 10 pick so why are we even talking to them. Do they have a plan to get a top 10 pick to trade?
Minnesota does not have the assets to get a top 10 pick plain and simple. Bennet or Adams. You probably need a top 7 pick to get Adams, otherwise draft Bennett and be over with it and stop trying to get cute. Just be happy you won the lottery and have a chance to secure a franchise level player because at pick 8, it was likely that both Bennett and Adams would have been gone and stop giving value to these mock draft from ESPN. Just look back at history at all of their wtf rankings like wes johnson, evan turner...just trust my tier system. 2 out 3 for the base, bigman all of extra lower body strength. Tier two of the trangle ---above average wingspan and standing reach...the closer to 11 second lane agility the better. top of tier of the triange...you look at attitude, motor, basketball IQ. You never start at the top of the triangle and work your way down. Most of the rookie posters here and EG like to start at the top of the triangle instead of the bottom which is why we have drafted guys like Vesely, Singleton, booker, Nick YOung, McGee, jordan crawford instead of making trades to get young prospects with these attributes.
Always start out with the base, and build up. If they don't have the base, move on. if you they spending a late 1st or spending money in free agency, you can break the rules because most free agents and a mid to late 1st round picks are bench players, not players you build around.
so again, Ilyasova and 3rd overall pick should not even be in discussion. Ilyasova is not a starter, he is a 6th man type player in the trevor Ariza, porter mold. Can't take over games but can fill a specific role during crucial points in a game.
Just stick to my script EG and don't try to get to cute. Stay away from the bucks with our 3rd draft pick, very far away. They have absolutely nothing on interest unless they figure out a way to get a top 8 pick in the trade and they no one in the top 8 wants anything they have. Saunders has no below average body strength and no coordination with the basketball. He needs to be fed while moving toward the basket to have any chance of scoring. Henson has no lower body strength. no coordination with the ball and can't finish consistently through contact. Bucks are even worse than the wizards.

[payitforward]

It's troubling that both Dat and CCJ don't like Bennett. I think nate has come around on him, am I right?

Doesn't bother me at all, I've been both wrong plenty of times, and both right plenty of times. I love to read their write ups, but I don't view their opinions as definitive or predictive of anything anymoreso than something Zonker, Nate, yourself or doclinkin etc might say. Lots and lots of great posters w/great arguments in these threads, and threads going back to when I first started reading here in '06/'07.

It keeps me up at night.

It keeps me up during the day -- which I suppose is a good thing. Right?

[sfam]

I would have been fine with the 8th pick for Illyasova, but not the 3rd. We are going to have cap room. There is a fair chance we could just use the 3rd pick and then add an Illyasova caliber FA next year. I would rather have Porter or Len on a rookie contract than Illyasova on his current contract.

Any work on whether we are working out Erik Murphy?

Totally agree with this. Moreso, there is still the chance that the #3 pick turns out to be an elite player. Only if the Wizards determine there is virtually no chance of anyone available doesn't have a chance to be elite would I consider the trade down possibilities.

Bottom line, it would suck to find out a year or two later that Porter or Bennett ends up in the All-star game and we're sitting there with a player tapping our cap room that is only decent.

I don't know if anyone else has already posted it, and I'm sorry if someone did, but I came across this at hoopshype

"...Peter Vecsey: And another thing; report on line that Bucks and Wizards are discussing Ersan-No. 3 swap is crazy wrong. Herb Kohl likes Ersan more than me....."


I'll be relieved if that's true. Just how stupid does this F.O. have to prove itself to be? Do they think they haven't made the case strongly enough yet, and want to make a particularly spectacular closing for the jury? I'll be relieved when we make the pick, and keep it so long as it's not idiotic.

If EG just stays put and selects the BPA he's fine. He makes real improvements in the team. EG's trading instincts scare everyone. Ersan, trash and the #15 is not worth anywhere near Okafor and the #3. We'd take a huge step back.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

I would trade any/all assets we presently have (outside of Beal and Wall) for Sanders and Illyasova. The way you win in this league is you NEED a rim protector, rebounders, and shooters. Illyasova gives 2 of those 3 things and so does Sanders.

Sanders
Ilyasova
Webster
Beal
Wall

Is a CHAMPIONSHIP contending team in a couple years.

What's so different between this team and the Pacers team? The East is WEAK.

[Severn Hoos]

Deeptu, great find. Sometimes I feel like I'm in a Twilight Zone series - where just talking about something can make it happen, but when it does there's a twist and you end up saying, "No, I didn't mean like THAT!" I've wanted Ilyasova on this team for a couple years, but the #3 pick is too rich even for me.

I do think this is contingency planning for the scenario where Porter's off the board, and if so I heartily applaud it. I'm not the least bit sold on Bennett, am intrigued by Zeller (and maybe the possibility that in time Zeller can give you what Ilyasova does, but on a rookie contract), and while I love Oladipo, can't see him getting enough PT to justify the pick.

Sooo.... IF Porter & Noel are off the board, I would definitely consider a deal centered around Ilyasova & the 3rd pick. But as has been stated, it would depend on the "and" that comes with Ilyasova. For me, the first thing would have to be the 15th pick. That would be even more important to me than getting Henson (no way they include Sanders).

And here's the thing - if they did include another player or players (per the report) rather than draft picks, the salary matchup gets more complex. I'd prefer not to add Ariza because he's a useful player on a fairly sizable expiring deal, so he's a net positive at this point, IMO. I'd rather use him in another trade (like the hypothetical Millsap deal) than as salary ballast here.

At a certain point, the deal would have to include Okafor or Nene, and like Ariza I'd be a bit concerned about giving one of those guys up and removing the possibility to use them in a future deal.

Porter & Noel go #1 and #2, I'd probably do #3, Vesely, and Seraphin for Ilyasova and #15. Hmmm.... not even sure about that. Maybe we make it Ariza and they add Henson?

In the end, the ideal situation is to draft Porter and then do a separate deal to get Ilyasova. But no way I trade that pick if Porter's available.

[Edit to add - just saw the note on Vescey's "report". Given his track record, you might as well start buying those Red, White, and Blue Ilyasova jerseys now!)

[nate33]

Porter & Noel go #1 and #2, I'd probably do #3, Vesely, and Seraphin for Ilyasova and #15. Hmmm.... not even sure about that.

No need to give them Seraphin. It works with just Vesely and Singleton as salary ballast.

[AFM]

Who would we draft at 15? Seriously, someone answer this. The #15 pick is hot garbage. Dieng is probably the best player available.

[gambitx777]

Ok lets say we do this trade,
Ariza, Jan, singleton, # 3 for Ersan, Henson and #15, or some a variation of that trade.

Who would we take a 15, its not "Hot Garbage".
This team will still need a back up/ center of the future and guard depth.
We would take Carter-Williams, Adams, or Olynyk if they fall, or Larkin, Harday, Deing, or Denis Schroeder (one of the few euro prospects that I would even take a look at). Its not a garbage pick, there are going to be good players left and players that can fill needs on our team.

[AFM]

Pretty much every player you named will be trash though, or not available at 15. I don't think MCW or Olynyk will be available (and I think MCW sucks). We are going to trade #3 for Deing.
I think a pretty good rule is when you're in the lottery NEVER trade down.
This board loves to look for sleeper picks and ends up over valuing later lottery picks. I don't care about #15. Especially with Ernie drafting.

[gambitx777]

I don't believe in trading pick with out getting pick in return. But i do value the draft at any pick. Simply because so many great players have been taken out side of the top 10.
Sure E.G. has a bad track record, but that not a reason to not try to make the team better.
Why are those players going to be trash.
Last year Schroeder averaged 12 point 3 assists, 82 % from the FT line, 40% from the 3 and increased his FG% by 5 %. ALl with about 25 minutes of play,back up minutes. Witch is what he will be getting if we take him and the kid has some nice speed.
Harday is made to be a 6th man.
Larkin might be small but he will be something special. the kids got skills. A better version of nate robinson or J.J.B.

They won't be trash players.

[montestewart]

I think a pretty good rule is when you're in the lottery NEVER trade down.

It depends on what you're getting in return for trading down. Here, I feel like the Wizards are about to get swindled again.

EG: "When I said, 'I don’t think we want to have three rookies on the roster next year,' I misspoke, what I meant to say is I don't think we want to have anything to do with the number three."

[truwizfan4evr]

Only player i can think of at 15 is shabazz-muhammad. Why cant we just get a cheap Stretch 4 in the free agent? Why an expensive stretch 4 who is a over paid role player?

[gambitx777]

That sounds like E.G. lol But yeah I mean, i would not even consider it un less they are taking Jan, and giving us henson and the 15.
I posted these deals in the bucks thread,

Ersan, Henson, #15 for Ariza, Jan , Singleton (optional), and #3

Ersan, Moute, Henson and #15 for NENE, Jan, Singleton (optional) and #3
I could live with either.
But like you said, I hope E.G. Got his fill of being swindled in the dead line deal with Boston.

[truwizfan4evr]

Can we Develop Henson is the question? We should just keep the picks. I got a feeling if Sova came to Washington he will be a flop for us.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Can we Develop Henson is the question? We should just keep the picks. I got a feeling if Sova came to Washington he will be a flop for us.

Only player i can think of at 15 is shabazz-muhammad. Why cant we just get a cheap Stretch 4 in the free agent? Why an expensive stretch 4 who is a over paid role player?

While I'm not here to say the proposed trade is anything but a poor return, this is pushing it. Illyasova is not overpaid and it's hard to see how he's going to flop with Wall passing him the ball.

The central problem is that Illyasova is not really someone you want after his current 4-year contract expires whereas a rookie we draft at 3 is coming into his prime after four years.

I would agree that a bargain bin option at the four with the third pick being utilized is the more prudent course in general.

[gambitx777]

I agree I would rather just keep the 3 and use our second to grab a big and a back up PG,
But if we got Henson, who i think is better than a lot of the Bigs out side the top ten, used the 15 on other needs and used our seconds to add more depth, I could live with having Ersan on the roaster and cutting him with his team option in a few years when we would have to pay Henson if he develops enough. .