Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[Deivy202]

Only player i can think of at 15 is shabazz-muhammad. Why cant we just get a cheap Stretch 4 in the free agent? Why an expensive stretch 4 who is a over paid role player?

Because he can rebound and his percentage is pretty good at the 3 point line and his mid range is even better. He also can break out in games...his D wasnt that bad either I think fans in here just hate the fact our team possibly will change a bit after looking good when healthy . Porter will probably not be at 3 and at 15 like you said we could get Shabazz who would start at the 3 right away! that would be.


Wall
beal
Muhummad
Ilyasova
Nene/2nd pick/ Uhou

thats honestly a nice younger team!

[Deivy202]

Not to mention FA so.

[gambitx777]

Baz, I would not hate him at 15 but, Larkin, Schroeder, Deing, Plumlee, Hardaway Jr, are all guys i would love to take there and that's not counting who could fall.

[dangermouse]

I'd rather keep Okafor

It makes more sense if Ariza is the one moved. Especially if they are sending back LRMAM. Even then, im not sure i'd do it. Only if Porter is gone.

[gambitx777]

I would rather do Henson, and 15
for
Jan, 3 38 and 54

[penbeast0]

Assuming we don't deal the pick for a role player and Porter goes first, who would you take?

Noel is a center with very raw skills for a team that wants to win now and has a logjam of young PFs behind our two starters who are both basically centers and has serious medical issues. Same goes for Len except less potential, less raw and less injured. Adams is even lower ceiling but without medical issues. Zeller too.

McLemore plays the same position as Beal as does Oladipo; Burke and McCollum would back up Wall instead but it's still the #3 pick to get a backup.

Do we hold our nose and take Bennett or even Shabazz, neither of whom I like much at that spot? Or do we go with BPA (whoever of Noel or McLemore slides presumably)?

[doclinkin]

Assuming we don't deal the pick for a role player and Porter goes first, who would you take?

Noel is a center with very raw skills for a team that wants to win now and has a logjam of young PFs behind our two starters who are both basically centers and has serious medical issues. Same goes for Len except less potential, less raw and less injured. Adams is even lower ceiling but without medical issues. Zeller too.

McLemore plays the same position as Beal as does Oladipo; Burke and McCollum would back up Wall instead but it's still the #3 pick to get a backup.

Do we hold our nose and take Bennett or even Shabazz, neither of whom I like much at that spot? Or do we go with BPA (whoever of Noel or McLemore slides presumably)?

What do I do or what does Ernie do?

Noel was the top ranked player all year, and his injury allows the team a cushion if we're not in contention halfway through the year and need to slide out of playoff contention to collect pingpong balls. Few in the national media will kill Ernie for taking the consensus top-ranked talent in the nation. Forgiveable if he can't play early.

Len would be the ballsy pick, and could get him fired. Len's the one that Ernie would make if he were picking by remote control and nobody knew who pressed the button. He's a tall athletic talent with true Center size having displayed some real skill and success, most notably against Noel, most intriguing mix of upside vs developing skill -- but in the stark light of history: he's an unpolished talent, a Euro, we've seen both of those before under Ernie's tenure. He's injured, with long term worries there. And he's a superbig, at 7'+, who take longer to put it all together. Worse, locals have seen him and know his game and are unimpressed (unaware at the time that he was injured, and not reflecting on how far he's come in one year). But first year he will still be raw, and playing behind established talents who are our most veteran, high effort players. Unless he earns minutes he'll point the barrel at Ernie, maybe not in Ted's eyes, but in local media.

Bennett will get Wittman fired for keeping him benched for defensive lapses. Fans will love the flair and flash and offense as always, and will tear up message boards and radio call-in shows clamoring for more, but halfassed effort on D in the NCAAs is a bad sign when he'll be required to anchor defenses and prevent interior scoring. Forgivable maybe if Booker takes his minutes, but when Singleton, and then Vesely actually get spot minutes and Bennett has a towel around his neck scanning the crowd for cute chicks and enjoying the ambiance, then Wittman is 2 games away from looking for work. Then Ernie's job is on the line: how many fired coaches? And what is the one constant? Wittman fired equals Ernie fired. A twofer.

Ernie takes Noel.

[mhd]

From Michael Lee on lottery night:

[Tweet]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23wizards">#wizards</a> picking 3rd once again. Probably not trading it</p>&mdash; Michael Lee (@MrMichaelLee) <a href="https://twitter.com/MrMichaelLee/status/337009169003577345">May 22, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/Tweet]

David Faulk, who I despise, is still a shrewd enough agent that he's not scheduling his client for TWO consecutive days with a team if there is a hint that that team won't pick him. I think the rumor is bunk.

Exactly, when did we get ANY inclination about the Okariza deal? EG never leaks stuff. This deal may have been Milwaukee's GM calling EG to gauge interest in the #3 pick.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Assuming we don't deal the pick for a role player and Porter goes first, who would you take?

Noel is a center with very raw skills for a team that wants to win now and has a logjam of young PFs behind our two starters who are both basically centers and has serious medical issues. Same goes for Len except less potential, less raw and less injured. Adams is even lower ceiling but without medical issues. Zeller too.

McLemore plays the same position as Beal as does Oladipo; Burke and McCollum would back up Wall instead but it's still the #3 pick to get a backup.

Do we hold our nose and take Bennett or even Shabazz, neither of whom I like much at that spot? Or do we go with BPA (whoever of Noel or McLemore slides presumably)?

Despite everything, I still think Ted and Ernie will take Porter if he's there, so, removing Noel who I assume would go second in this situation, the above is probably why there is discussion of trading the third pick.

The question marks on Bennet remind me of Steve Chu on Hydrogen fuel cells:

"So you have four things that have to happen all at once. ...If you need four miracles, that's unlikely: saints only need three miracles."

'No' to Anthony "Four Miracles" Bennet for me; not since Hassan Whiteside has watching a supposedly top rated prospect left me so thoroughly ticked off. The guy's going to have to double his energy output to become prime Villanueva.

I like Len and Zeller, but I don't think I could take either third.

Would have to go with Dipo, but I'd really try and trade back as this is supremely suboptimal.

[stevemcqueen1]

It is always amusing to watch people pretend like they KNOW how a draft prospect will turn out.

I do know for a fact that Ersan averaged 17/9 per 36 last year in the NBA, shooting 44% from 3. That kind of production definitely deserves some consideration.

Just like it's fun to watch people pretend to know how a vet acquisition will turn out?

When you talk about the value of draft picks, the validity of a projection is taken for granted. Same for any acquisition. If you are suspicious of the value of a prospect simply because he has no NBA track record and his future is a projection, then why are you even in this thread? If teams felt the same way, why pay for personnel guys to do what they do? Why value draft picks at all? They pay GMs a ton of money and they place a very high value on high draft picks for a reason.

As to the second part of your post, those would be very nice numbers, if a little disappointing for a #3 overall pick. Too bad Ersan is not a 36 minute player though. Not even close. 27 MPG is his career high. The per 36 stat gets misrepresented so much because it takes for granted that player is capable of playing what is essentially star minutes per game. Sometimes it's helpful for looking at what a young player might look like down the line when his role expands as he enters his prime. Ersan is 26. He's going into his sixth season. He's done developing, this is who he is. If he's not a full time starter for a 38 win Bucks team, he's never going to be one. He's a role player that plays less than 30 minutes a game. In no way shape or form do you trade a top three pick for that.

In trades, the team that gets the best player wins. Porter, if nothing else, will probably be a mainstay starter. He'll be the best player out of this deal and you'd be getting him on his rookie deal. If you don't feel comfortable with me taking that projection for granted, as I said before, why post in a draft thread? If you have your own projection of Porter that has him as worse than Ilyasova is, post it.

The basketball gods gifted us with a top three pick. This is the last high pick of the Wall era and probably the last high value team building asset we're going to get. This is our chance to get the third foundation piece to create an actual contender. Trading it for Ilyasova is squandering it. He's not a foundation piece. Neither are Sanders nor Henson for that matter. Giving up three for any of them is pissing away our last best avenue for improvement and ending up with a capped out team with no avenues for improvement that'd only swap places with the Bucks as the conference also ran.

I'm curious, of the people who are for trading #3 for Ilyasova, how many of you wanted to trade Wall before March?

[doclinkin]

Despite everything, I still think Ted and Ernie will take Porter if he's there, so, removing Noel who I assume would go second in this situation, the above is probably why there is discussion of trading the third pick.

...

I like Len and Zeller, but I don't think I could take either third.

Would have to go with Dipo, but I'd really try and trade back as this is supremely suboptimal.

Ted in particular seems key. If Porter is there, no question we take him. He fits Ted's 10 point plan -- young player, wants to be here, good character not a knucklehead, fits the team defense-first concept, low-ego -- plays both ways, nobody local hates him, has high calibre character, he's a Georgetown cat, sells tickets, everyone is happy.

If gone, we listen to offers, but Ted still likes high draft picks and this may well be our last best pick if John continues at that pace (and remains healthy, pray mercy). More importantly local fans always love draft picks, potential and hope sell tickets.

If unable to trade back I'd even shrug and accept Len or Zeller. Will post my happy upside version of that statement in the optimism thread if that occurs, or maybe before if I have a minute to stripmine clouds for silver linings. The short:

Len, if docs say he's okay, looks like he's on the right trajectory to be a good two way player and actually fits the position he's projected to play. His weaknesses only need proper physical training, good health, and maturity/experience. Admittedly none of the above are our strong suits. But that's why they call it HOPE. That's the reason I'm a Bullets fan...

Zeller: has proven he can be pretty good against some of the toughest competition the NCAAs can offer (Davis last year).

I'd also be fine with Ola-o-Dipo considering Beal's reckless abandon on drives to the basket. Not bad to have depth, even at a position of strength. I think even in small ball sets he will surprise and be able to play taller players since his arms are so long. IN fact his long arms and strength make him a better fit there at times since I think his footspeed gets shown up on defense against quick perimeter players. That said somebody who likes him may make a nicer offer to jump a few slots.

[closg00]

It will be interesting to see where all of the bigs end-up, this "weak draft" has a lot of big men, and they all are going to be drafted. We will need another 1st-round pick to get one of them.

[sfam]

Only player i can think of at 15 is shabazz-muhammad. Why cant we just get a cheap Stretch 4 in the free agent? Why an expensive stretch 4 who is a over paid role player?

Because he can rebound and his percentage is pretty good at the 3 point line and his mid range is even better. He also can break out in games...his D wasnt that bad either I think fans in here just hate the fact our team possibly will change a bit after looking good when healthy . Porter will probably not be at 3 and at 15 like you said we could get Shabazz who would start at the 3 right away! that would be.


Wall
beal
Muhummad
Ilyasova
Nene/2nd pick/ Uhou

thats honestly a nice younger team!

Yeah, that's great. But how bout instead Milwaukee take Shabaaz, and we'll choose between Porter (who will probably be there), Noel (who will be there if Porter isn't) and Bennett (my choice)?

[tontoz]

As to the second part of your post, those would be very nice numbers, if a little disappointing for a #3 overall pick.

LOL

You just proved my point about draft picks being overrated.

Too bad Ersan is not a 36 minute player though. Not even close. 27 MPG is his career high. The per 36 stat gets misrepresented so much because it takes for granted that player is capable of playing what is essentially star minutes per game.

Per minute production is all that matters. You can figure per 30, per 25 or per 40. Doesnt matter. Larry Sanders played only 27 minutes too. I guess he isn't that good either.

Ersan has proven he can play in the NBA. There is far more certainty about aquiring him than there would be with any of the draft prospects. And he is only 26. It isn't like he is a washed up vet.

[sfam]

It is always amusing to watch people pretend like they KNOW how a draft prospect will turn out.

I do know for a fact that Ersan averaged 17/9 per 36 last year in the NBA, shooting 44% from 3. That kind of production definitely deserves some consideration.

Just like it's fun to watch people pretend to know how a vet acquisition will turn out?

When you talk about the value of draft picks, the validity of a projection is taken for granted. Same for any acquisition. If you are suspicious of the value of a prospect simply because he has no NBA track record and his future is a projection, then why are you even in this thread? If teams felt the same way, why pay for personnel guys to do what they do? Why value draft picks at all? They pay GMs a ton of money and they place a very high value on high draft picks for a reason.

As to the second part of your post, those would be very nice numbers, if a little disappointing for a #3 overall pick. Too bad Ersan is not a 36 minute player though. Not even close. 27 MPG is his career high. The per 36 stat gets misrepresented so much because it takes for granted that player is capable of playing what is essentially star minutes per game. Sometimes it's helpful for looking at what a young player might look like down the line when his role expands as he enters his prime. Ersan is 26. He's going into his sixth season. He's done developing, this is who he is. If he's not a full time starter for a 38 win Bucks team, he's never going to be one. He's a role player that plays less than 30 minutes a game. In no way shape or form do you trade a top three pick for that.

In trades, the team that gets the best player wins. Porter, if nothing else, will probably be a mainstay starter. He'll be the best player out of this deal and you'd be getting him on his rookie deal. If you don't feel comfortable with me taking that projection for granted, as I said before, why post in a draft thread? If you have your own projection of Porter that has him as worse than Ilyasova is, post it.

The basketball gods gifted us with a top three pick. This is the last high pick of the Wall era and probably the last high value team building asset we're going to get. This is our chance to get the third foundation piece to create an actual contender. Trading it for Ilyasova is squandering it. He's not a foundation piece. Neither are Sanders nor Henson for that matter. Giving up three for any of them is pissing away our last best avenue for improvement and ending up with a capped out team with no avenues for improvement that'd only swap places with the Bucks as the conference also ran.

I'm curious, of the people who are for trading #3 for Ilyasova, how many of you wanted to trade Wall before March?

+1
Exactly! If Ersan was an All-star in waiting he'd at least be a starter on a crappy team. His stats are padded by going against the opposition's scrubs. He's not even able to break the starting line and we're giving up the #3 pick for him??? EG, take a chance and use the pick. Take someone who has a chance to be special, and is probably already starter quality.

[sfam]

Despite everything, I still think Ted and Ernie will take Porter if he's there, so, removing Noel who I assume would go second in this situation, the above is probably why there is discussion of trading the third pick.

...

I like Len and Zeller, but I don't think I could take either third.

Would have to go with Dipo, but I'd really try and trade back as this is supremely suboptimal.

Ted in particular seems key. If Porter is there, no question we take him. He fits Ted's 10 point plan -- young player, wants to be here, good character not a knucklehead, fits the team defense-first concept, low-ego -- plays both ways, nobody local hates him, has high calibre character, he's a Georgetown cat, sells tickets, everyone is happy.

If gone, we listen to offers, but Ted still likes high draft picks and this may well be our last best pick if John continues at that pace (and remains healthy, pray mercy). More importantly local fans always love draft picks, potential and hope sell tickets.

If unable to trade back I'd even shrug and accept Len or Zeller. Will post my happy upside version of that statement in the optimism thread if that occurs, or maybe before if I have a minute to stripmine clouds for silver linings. The short:

Len, if docs say he's okay, looks like he's on the right trajectory to be a good two way player and actually fits the position he's projected to play. His weaknesses only need proper physical training, good health, and maturity/experience. Admittedly none of the above are our strong suits. But that's why they call it HOPE. That's the reason I'm a Bullets fan...

Zeller: has proven he can be pretty good against some of the toughest competition the NCAAs can offer (Davis last year).

I'd also be fine with Ola-o-Dipo considering Beal's reckless abandon on drives to the basket. Not bad to have depth, even at a position of strength. I think even in small ball sets he will surprise and be able to play taller players since his arms are so long. IN fact his long arms and strength make him a better fit there at times since I think his footspeed gets shown up on defense against quick perimeter players. That said somebody who likes him may make a nicer offer to jump a few slots.

Indications are they are as high on Bennett as Porter. If Porter's gone (and Noel), I say they just take Bennett.

[payitforward]

I don't believe in trading pick with out getting pick in return. But i do value the draft at any pick. Simply because so many great players have been taken out side of the top 10.

Bingo!! +1

...Schroeder... Harda(wa)y ...Larkin... They won't be trash players.

And there'll be others as well --- for sure! Look back at that terrible 2001 draft for example. Taken outside the top 10: Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur.

How about 2003: Pietrus, Collison, M. Banks, Ridnour, David West, Diaw, Outlaw, Delfino, Perkins, Barbosa, Josh Howard, Kapono, Pachulia, Bogans, Bonner, Mo Williams, Korver

2004 -- Biedrins, Humphries, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin all taken from 11-30 (and I left out Swift, Telfair & Wright).

Second round? Anderson Varejao, Ivey, Duhon, and Trevor Ariza.

There are good players up and down every draft.

[sfam]

I don't believe in trading pick with out getting pick in return. But i do value the draft at any pick. Simply because so many great players have been taken out side of the top 10.

Bingo!! +1

...Schroeder... Harda(wa)y ...Larkin... They won't be trash players.

And there'll be others as well --- for sure! Look back at that terrible 2001 draft for example. Taken outside the top 10: Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur.

How about 2003: Pietrus, Collison, M. Banks, Ridnour, David West, Diaw, Outlaw, Delfino, Perkins, Barbosa, Josh Howard, Kapono, Pachulia, Bogans, Bonner, Mo Williams, Korver

2004 -- Biedrins, Humphries, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin all taken from 11-30 (and I left out Swift, Telfair & Wright).

Second round? Anderson Varejao, Ivey, Duhon, and Trevor Ariza.

There are good players up and down every draft.

And of course the obvious follow-up question: Does anyone here have confidence that EG will find these diamonds in the rough with those later picks?

Can I answer for us all? "NO, we don't."

[payitforward]

Can we Develop Henson is the question? We should just keep the picks. I got a feeling if Sova came to Washington he will be a flop for us....

Only player i can think of at 15 is shabazz-muhammad. Why cant we just get a cheap Stretch 4 in the free agent? Why an expensive stretch 4 who is a over paid role player?

...this is pushing it. Illyasova is not overpaid and it's hard to see how he's going to flop with Wall passing him the ball.

The central problem is that Illyasova is not really someone you want after his current 4-year contract expires whereas a rookie we draft at 3 is coming into his prime after four years....

Right. I would have been delighted if we'd acquired Ilyasova as a FA last year -- he makes slightly more than Ariza and would have been a much better pick up. But, now everyone sees he is a bargain at his current salary, meaning that he'll bring more in a trade than you want to give up.

We're not as good a team as people here seem to think -- not nearly as good; really not even "good". We need to be building our core out of the draft. If Ernie really did say we don't want 3 rookies, then he's an idiot -- but... we already knew that.

(Actually, he's no idiot -- someone clever enough to keep a job for over a decade given the track record he has certainly cannot be dumb!)

[tontoz]

+1
Exactly! If Ersan was an All-star in waiting he'd at least be a starter on a crappy team. His stats are padded by going against the opposition's scrubs. He's not even able to break the starting line and we're giving up the #3 pick for him??? EG, take a chance and use the pick. Take someone who has a chance to be special, and is probably already starter quality.

I think you are confusing Ersan with someone else. He started most of his games the last 3 years and played last year with a Jennings/Ellis backcourt who took a combined 33 shots per game.

We had two first rounders in 2011 and wound up with 2 bums. But at the time many people here were reluctant to trade them because of their perceived value. You have to consider who is making the picks when judging their value.

I am not saying this deal is a no-brainer (especially since we don't know the other players/picks involved) but to completely dismiss it is ridiculous. There are no Tier 1 players in this draft.