Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[Ruzious]

We need to be getting a player back for at least the next 7 years with the #3 pick. A top 3 pick in any draft should have that expectation. Rookie contract plus extension and really he should have at least one all star appearance.

Ilyasova is not worth that. Especially if he's actually 29.

I think his age is legitimately 26, because I remember him when he was a rookie - and he was much smaller than he is now - which is why he was a small forward prospect - at about 6'8 210. If he was 3 years older than reported, the chances of him growing as much as he has since then are miniscule.

Having said that, Ilyasova is a good player who can definitely significantly help the Wizards - but he's not a savior by any stretch. And he's not going to wow anyone with his athleticism, strength, or defense. He's also a slow starter for some reason - which might be a good thing - since you want better production as the season goes on. As they say, cream eventually rises to the top. He's not worth the 3rd pick, but the 3rd pick plus a couple of Ernie's kids for Ilyasova and the 15th pick could work out well as a starting point - though I think it's important to be sure we have cap room for next offseason to add an outstanding player. My preference would be - if you can trade down and still get Zeller and a future pick - do that - going as far down as you can to do it. Of course, that would take a savvy GM who has a good feel of what other teams are planning.

[stevemcqueen1]

We need to be getting a player back for at least the next 7 years with the #3 pick. A top 3 pick in any draft should have that expectation. Rookie contract plus extension and really he should have at least one all star appearance.

Ilyasova is not worth that. Especially if he's actually 29.

I think his age is legitimately 26, because I remember him when he was a rookie - and he was much smaller than he is now - which is why he was a small forward prospect - at about 6'8 210. If he was 3 years older than reported, the chances of him growing as much as he has since then are miniscule.

Having said that, Ilyasova is a good player who can definitely significantly help the Wizards - but he's not a savior by any stretch. And he's not going to wow anyone with his athleticism, strength, or defense. He's also a slow starter for some reason - which might be a good thing - since you want better production as the season goes on. As they say, cream eventually rises to the top. He's not worth the 3rd pick, but the 3rd pick plus a couple of Ernie's kids for Ilyasova and the 15th pick could work out well as a starting point - though I think it's important to be sure we have cap room for next offseason to add an outstanding player. My preference would be - if you can trade down and still get Zeller and a future pick - do that - going as far down as you can to do it. Of course, that would take a savvy GM who has a good feel of what other teams are planning.

I'm not interested in coming away with 15 for 3. I feel like you could probably buy a pick around 15 for cash and a ham sandwich. It's valuable is negligible in comparison to 3.

I feel like people have pretty low expectations for what you should get out of a #3 draft pick. You should be getting either the first or second best big man or first or second best perimeter player in his class at that pick. That's what I believe we got with Wall and Beal. That's what we should expect from this pick.

If you do that, that means at some point in his career, that player is likely to be one of the two or three best players at his position in the NBA.

You should be expecting to get a guy that is either a key starter or super sub for 7+ years and he should end up being one of the best players at his position when he hits his prime near the end of that 7 years. He should see an AS game, probably more than one.

That's what your expectations for the pick should be. If you don't get that from your pick, then your guy was a bust, or at the very least, a disappointment. Every draft class, no matter how bad, produces a few All Stars. Even 2000, probably the worst one ever, had three guys go to an AS game. The GM picking at the top of the class MUST find those diamonds in the rough in a bad year.

Ersan Ilyasova and whatever future back up we pick at 15 falls waaay short of what you should expect from a #3 pick. That's a bunch of coins. #3 is a piece of paper. You never trade paper for coins. The NBA is all about quality over quantity. You do everything in your power to acquire paper no matter what, it's your first priority, and then you figure out the rest later. You can always find solid role players for a bargain. That's like 90% of the NBA's talent pool. You can turn over a rock and find a Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor for a player you were getting nothing out of and couldn't get rid of fast enough.

This draft we need to figure out which guy is going to either be the best or second best big in the class, or best or second best perimeter player in the group and then come away with him. Either that, or trade the pick for a current or future All Star vet. Those are the only returns that are acceptable.

And at any rate, if we were going to settle for a bench player for #3, I'd much rather spend the pick on McLemore or Oladipo than deal it for Ersan and 15.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'd be happy with the #3 plus Vesely & Singleton for Ilyasova and the #15 if Adams was there at #15.

Problem is, I think Adams doesn't get past OKC at #12.

They will select Olynyk over Adams IMO. Perkins is an adequate defender. OKC needs a C with skills.

[stevemcqueen1]

Speaking of McLemore, people haven't been talking about him in a while. He's the consensus #2 guy and we've got the third pick.

Several have said Porter going #1 and Noel going #2 is a nightmare scenario. I don't know if I agree because that'd mean the consensus #2 and the best perimeter player in the class fell to us at our pick. I have a hard time accepting that as a bad outcome. I think you've got to go BPA at 3 and then figure it out after. Two player class and all.

The obvious obstacle is finding a way to give both him and Beal enough minutes if you keep McLemore. Got to go small. Got to hope Beal develops his ability to run point, which I think will happen. Beal played SF at Florida too, acquitted himself well there despite being so short for the position. He has a strong body and a lot of athleticism, so he's somewhat interchangeable at the wing spots. He's got the entire offensive repertoire of both wing spots.

So does McLemore for that matter. There are worse lineups than putting two explosive wings with perfect shots that excel playing off the ball on the court with John Wall.

I think this class is kind of sorting itself out into a three or four player group. McLemore and Porter are the special guys among the perimeter players. Noel and maaaaaaybe Len are the ones among the bigs. Not totally sold on Len yet, but he has special potential. I think we need to come away with one of those three or four players at #3.

[LyricalRico]

^ If McLemore falls to #3 I'd rather make a trade than try to make a lineup with two 6'4 wing players work. If he truly is regarded as the best perimeter player in this draft, then there's sure to be a ton of interest and we could potentially get a lot in return.

[Ruzious]

I'm not interested in coming away with 15 for 3. I feel like you could probably buy a pick around 15 for cash and a ham sandwich. It's valuable is negligible in comparison to 3.

I feel like people have pretty low expectations for what you should get out of a #3 draft pick. You should be getting either the first or second best big man or first or second best perimeter player in his class at that pick. That's what I believe we got with Wall and Beal. That's what we should expect from this pick.

If you do that, that means at some point in his career, that player is likely to be one of the two or three best players at his position in the NBA.

You should be expecting to get a guy that is either a key starter or super sub for 7+ years and he should end up being one of the best players at his position when he hits his prime near the end of that 7 years. He should see an AS game, probably more than one.

That's what your expectations for the pick should be. If you don't get that from your pick, then your guy was a bust, or at the very least, a disappointment. Every draft class, no matter how bad, produces a few All Stars. Even 2000, probably the worst one ever, had three guys go to an AS game. The GM picking at the top of the class MUST find those diamonds in the rough in a bad year.

You have to factor in that the difference between 3 and 15 USUALLY is huge. It's nowhere near as huge this year. Having said that - I agree (though not whole-heartedly) that an Ilyasova trade isn't likely the best way to go. I wouldn't complain either way - assuming Porter is the 3rd pick. Now, if Porter and Noel are gone, I think they're in a situation where it does make sense to trade (and I think Mil would love to get Oladipo). Taking McLemore isn't really an option because of Beal, and Oladipo isn't likely - also because of Beal. And I don't believe they're serious about Bennett. That leaves a trade or a reach. A reach would leave a bad taste in my mouth.

[LyricalRico]

What if we work out a three way with Minnesota and Milwaukee. In a nutshell, Milwaukee packages Redick and the 15th in a S&T to Minnesota for the #9 and a lesser player. Then Milwaukee sends the #9 plus Ilyasova to us for the #3 and Vesely + Singleton.

Meh. I guess it can't work because Redick is a S&T and you can't package him with draft picks.

Yeah, the S&T does put a damper on things. I thought about maybe an "extend and trade" but apparently that's not allowed.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q92

What about including Minny in a deal with NOH? Same principle, but we instead end up with Anderson+9.

Wizards trade: Seraphin, Vesely, Singleton, and 3
Wizards receive: Ryan Anderson and 9

Wolves trade: DWill and 9
Wolves receive: Vesely and 6

Pelicans trade: Ryan Anderson and 6
Pelicans receive: Seraphin, DWill, and 3

Actually seems like NOH could stand to give up a bit more, but they don't have any 2nds and I'm not particularly interested in Rivers. Still works for us if Porter is off the board since we get our jumpshooting PF and can still take a young C at 9.

[jivelikenice]

^ If McLemore falls to #3 I'd rather make a trade than try to make a lineup with two 6'4 wing players work. If he truly is regarded as the best perimeter player in this draft, then there's sure to be a ton of interest and we could potentially get a lot in return.

This team needs talent. If the best player on he board is 6'4, draft him and worry about rroster fit later.

[gambitx777]

^ If McLemore falls to #3 I'd rather make a trade than try to make a lineup with two 6'4 wing players work. If he truly is regarded as the best perimeter player in this draft, then there's sure to be a ton of interest and we could potentially get a lot in return.

Well, If 1 and 2 are porter and Noel, its always an option to take Maclemore or Oladipo and trade them later. You can pick one of them and trade there rights 20 minutes later once you see how the other picks pan out. Or keep him and trade them or Beal at the dead line or even just before the season. That is always an option, maclemore and Oladipo would be instant mega valuable assets. It would let us trade beal if the deal is right.

[Dat2U]

Speaking of McLemore, people haven't been talking about him in a while. He's the consensus #2 guy and we've got the third pick.

Several have said Porter going #1 and Noel going #2 is a nightmare scenario. I don't know if I agree because that'd mean the consensus #2 and the best perimeter player in the class fell to us at our pick. I have a hard time accepting that as a bad outcome. I think you've got to go BPA at 3 and then figure it out after. Two player class and all.

The obvious obstacle is finding a way to give both him and Beal enough minutes if you keep McLemore. Got to go small. Got to hope Beal develops his ability to run point, which I think will happen. Beal played SF at Florida too, acquitted himself well there despite being so short for the position. He has a strong body and a lot of athleticism, so he's somewhat interchangeable at the wing spots. He's got the entire offensive repertoire of both wing spots.

So does McLemore for that matter. There are worse lineups than putting two explosive wings with perfect shots that excel playing off the ball on the court with John Wall.

I think this class is kind of sorting itself out into a three or four player group. McLemore and Porter are the special guys among the perimeter players. Noel and maaaaaaybe Len are the ones among the bigs. Not totally sold on Len yet, but he has special potential. I think we need to come away with one of those three or four players at #3.

To me it is the nightmare scenario if we draft McLemore because I'm wary of drafting any 6-4 guard that can barely dribble in the 1st round (much less a top 3 pick!). At least Oladipo can slash effectively although his handle needs signficant improvement as well. Oladipo also seems better equipped to give spot duty at the 3 as opposed to McLemore do to his long arms and rebounding ability.

If I'm going with small ball, I'd go Oladipo over McLemore without hesitation.

[stevemcqueen1]

^ If McLemore falls to #3 I'd rather make a trade than try to make a lineup with two 6'4 wing players work. If he truly is regarded as the best perimeter player in this draft, then there's sure to be a ton of interest and we could potentially get a lot in return.

What if you can't get a decent trade for him though? Do you take him then? If you took him, what do you do next?

I think you just have him come off the bench as a super sub for 30 minutes a game. You can find the minutes there if Beal can play some PG. Beal gets hurt too, you'll probably have chances to start him. If you've got both Beal and McLemore, you know you can have a guy that will make his open shots on the court with Wall at all times.

[stevemcqueen1]

To me it is the nightmare scenario if we draft McLemore because I'm wary of drafting any 6-4 guard that can barely dribble in the 1st round (much less a top 3 pick!). At least Oladipo can slash effectively although his handle needs signficant improvement as well. Oladipo also seems better equipped to give spot duty at the 3 as opposed to McLemore do to his long arms and rebounding ability.

If I'm going with small ball, I'd go Oladipo over McLemore without hesitation.

I think McLemore is a better player though. Better shooter, equal leaper, faster athlete.

I'm not sure I buy Oladipo's huge jump in shooting percentages as legit yet. If it's not, that significantly decreases his value for us.

[sfam]

Speaking of McLemore, people haven't been talking about him in a while. He's the consensus #2 guy and we've got the third pick.

Several have said Porter going #1 and Noel going #2 is a nightmare scenario. I don't know if I agree because that'd mean the consensus #2 and the best perimeter player in the class fell to us at our pick. I have a hard time accepting that as a bad outcome. I think you've got to go BPA at 3 and then figure it out after. Two player class and all.

The obvious obstacle is finding a way to give both him and Beal enough minutes if you keep McLemore. Got to go small. Got to hope Beal develops his ability to run point, which I think will happen. Beal played SF at Florida too, acquitted himself well there despite being so short for the position. He has a strong body and a lot of athleticism, so he's somewhat interchangeable at the wing spots. He's got the entire offensive repertoire of both wing spots.

So does McLemore for that matter. There are worse lineups than putting two explosive wings with perfect shots that excel playing off the ball on the court with John Wall.

I think this class is kind of sorting itself out into a three or four player group. McLemore and Porter are the special guys among the perimeter players. Noel and maaaaaaybe Len are the ones among the bigs. Not totally sold on Len yet, but he has special potential. I think we need to come away with one of those three or four players at #3.

To me it is the nightmare scenario if we draft McLemore because I'm wary of drafting any 6-4 guard that can barely dribble in the 1st round (much less a top 3 pick!). At least Oladipo can slash effectively although his handle needs signficant improvement as well. Oladipo also seems better equipped to give spot duty at the 3 as opposed to McLemore do to his long arms and rebounding ability.

If I'm going with small ball, I'd go Oladipo over McLemore without hesitation.

I'd still go Bennett, but if its a choice between Mclemore and Olapido, I agree with you - Olapido might be able to play some 3.

[Dat2U]

To me it is the nightmare scenario if we draft McLemore because I'm wary of drafting any 6-4 guard that can barely dribble in the 1st round (much less a top 3 pick!). At least Oladipo can slash effectively although his handle needs signficant improvement as well. Oladipo also seems better equipped to give spot duty at the 3 as opposed to McLemore do to his long arms and rebounding ability.

If I'm going with small ball, I'd go Oladipo over McLemore without hesitation.

I think McLemore is a better player though. Better shooter, equal leaper, faster athlete.

I'm not sure I buy Oladipo's huge jump in shooting percentages as legit yet. If it's not, that significantly decreases his value for us.

Those two don't necessarily translate to NBA success. I don't care how great a leaper or how fast you are... this isn't track & field. If McLemore's handle isn't sufficient enough, he's no better than a spot up shooter and those guys aren't top 10 picks in any year.

[gambitx777]

If porter and noel are gone, and bennett did not impress us with his interview, I say we just take Oladipo, I mean hell the kids home town is about 25 minutes away from DC. Plus he Has a better skill set than maclemore and Improving the way he did shows that he can learn and grow. Plus again we can always just trade him if we get the right deal later on.

[Ruzious]

If porter and noel are gone, and bennett did not impress us with his interview, I say we just take Oladipo, I mean hell the kids home town is about 25 minutes away from DC. Plus he Has a better skill set than maclemore and Improving the way he did shows that he can learn and grow. Plus again we can always just trade him if we get the right deal later on.

They won't do that, but honestly - I wouldn't have a problem with it if they did. I love the way he plays.

[gambitx777]

I don't see why not, Hes a local product and hes got skills. I would take him and figure it out later, because he has trade value not matter what.

[mhd]

If Noel & Porter are gone, trade down with Phoenix who would take the SG of their choice.

[LyricalRico]

I don't see why not, Hes a local product and hes got skills. I would take him and figure it out later, because he has trade value not matter what.

But isn't that what Minny did with DWill? They already had Love, but took him anyway and tried to figure it out. It hasn't worked and they aren't going to get "#2 overall pick" value back for him if they trade him now. So I'm not sure we can assume that the trade value will always be there.

If the Wolves could go back in time and instead get McGee+6 from the Wizards, would they? Even if they had to kick in something else of value from their end to get the deal to go through? I think they would. McGee and and a guy like Kawhi Leonard would look a lot better on their roster than DWill does right now (and I'm not even a McGee fan LOL). I'm not saying they'd be contenders, but it's more than they'll get for DWill in any trade going forward.

IMO this team has enough clear needs that going BPA at a position we've already got filled and hoping we figure it out isn't the way to go. If we were a team with 5 legit starters and we just lucked into a top pick because of injuries, sure I'd take BPA to be our 6th man. But this team still needs as many as 3 longterm solutions in the starting lineup, so I'd prefer to explore ways to leverage the pick to get one of those spots filled.

[The Consiglieri]

What do you guys actually think will happen though? How would you view it in retrospect?

I'm really curious about this angle because at this point, I've been reading a litany of ideas I think have virtually no chance of actually happening. I like to go on record with my views like the next guy, and I think we all have (although I do find it odd how many seem to imply that we can solve an issue with 1 or 2 of our 2nd roundrs-back up point guard or 5th big solved with this move, considering 2nd rounders of any squad, rarely make any impact to speak of, particularly ours (I believe only 3 have done much of anything in the past twenty years for us, and collectively we weren't happy with any of them: Blatche, Mack, and McGuire), and assuming the pick, especially when EG doesn't want to even use one or both of them, will at worst, put some spackle on an issue is a stretch to me) in these 6 draft threads over the past 8 months or so. I'm just curious who you like, not so much with the idea that you think we should do this or that, and that and this is addressed.

Anyway, as I posted the other day, I think these are the likeliest scenario's:

1. Simply picking Porter-62.5%
2. Picking Bennett w/Porter and Noel off the board before our slot: 17.5%
3. Picking Noel when he slips to #3: 7.5%
4. Picking Len at #3 when Noel and Porter, or Porter and Bennett go in first two picks: 7.5%
5. Trade down for Len or Bennett with Porter and Noel off the board: 5%


I don't really think any of the other scenario's have legs, I suppose the Milwaukee rumor might, but I tend to doubt it. It seems too stupid, even for the Grunfeldian Genius, to commit himself too, especially considering the pretty strong word of mouth that the Bucks have no interest in moving Henson, or Sanders, whom are viewed as legit building blocks. I just can't see us moving the #3, for a body and Ersan. I think its far more likely we simply take Porter, Bennett, Noel or Len (and for the record, considering the history of smoke signals which have consistently been accurate-in '09 word that he wanted to trade out was true, in '10 it was wall all the way, in '11 it was Vesely, indeed there were rumors that we would have gone Ves if he'd declared for the '10 draft as was initially expected, and we hadn't jumped to #1, in '12, it was Beal or MKG all the way, feels like the rumors now are just as reliable: we like Porter, Bennett and Len, and with Len apparently in the top 3 on the Cavs board, and Ford repeatedly suggesting that Len was a legit target to go #1 if he hadn't suffered a foot injury, that confirms the possibility, particularly with the "same player at #3 and at #8," post-lottery EG Quote).

What do you guys see as the most likely scenario? What would you think of them?

For me, I can justify any of those four decisions as long as the priority of them begins with Noel (I can deal with Porter/Bennett if either are available, and I could even stomach Len, particularly if it were in a trade down scenario). Only thing I can't stomach (amongst the rumors I've heard is a Bucks trade down, that sounds horrifying).