NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Kanyewest]

LeBron seems like a player to me who doesn't play as well when he's down 8-10 points. He plays much better when his team has the lead. LeBron was standing around a lot without the ball, he went for offensive rebounds that lead to easy leak outs for San Antonio, and he hesitated at times to take wide open jumpers. James has only gotten to the free throw line 6 times in 3 games and 0 times in game 3.

Neal and Green played out of their minds. Can they reproduce this performance over the next two games? Or San Antonio has to worry about their games traveling on the road.

[FAH1223]

Spurs need to get Duncan and Ginobili going even more... they need to both get close to 20 the next game

Green has been the most consistent offensive player for SA and he should shoot just as much as he did tonight.

Leonard has been the best defender but his offense is now starting to pick up.

Spurs are up 2-1 and their HOF players haven't even done much outside of Parker in Game 1 and Duncan playing great defense and rebounding.

Pop is playing chess out there too. One, backing off Lebron so he couldn't get no huge momentum swinging dunk. But two, stepping back giving him those open looks and **** with his psyche. You know Pop is hoping that **** carries over into game 4. Hoping Lebron either comes out shooting jumpers to prove something. Or hoping Lebron's confidence is shook and he comes out extra passive. Either way win/win.

[hands11]

I just had a realization that Miami can't be beat 4 times out of 7. I think SA loses tonight despite playing a great game andn ot rebounding.

Excellent prediction.

[hands11]

That was sweet!

Epic finals beat down. Danny Green locked down defensively on Lebron on one end, and went thermonuclear hot at the other.

Heat fans take that! It was fun to watch.

Danny Green
Gary Neal

WOW

[Ruzious]

I just had a realization that Miami can't be beat 4 times out of 7. I think SA loses tonight despite playing a great game andn ot rebounding.

Excellent prediction.

Speaking of rebounding, an interesting stat - SA and Miami tied for 2nd worst in the NBA in offensive rebounding differential - though they both were above average in defensive rebounding differential. So, it appears that they put an emphasis on other things that perhaps hinder their offensive rebounding - or look for things in their players rather than offensive rebounding ability - like showing the ability to shoot or defend gets you more playing time.

[tontoz]

[fishercob]

I have loved watching Manu for so long; it sucks to see him stinking it up so hard in the Finals. You gotta wonder if he hangs 'em up if they win.

Wow, Gary Neal! Did anyone watch him play at Towson? I know he's at Barry Farms and in the Kenner League a lot in the summer. Anyone see him play much?

And Danny Green! I want to say that Ruz was on this guy in college -- before his stints in basketball purgatory. What a player he has become. He's come a long way from being Lebron's dance partner.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G0wPTUZvak[/youtube]

I wonder how often Pop plays that video for him and just glares at him. HA!

[Ruzious]

I just had a realization that Miami can't be beat 4 times out of 7. I think SA loses tonight despite playing a great game andn ot rebounding.

Excellent prediction.

Speaking of rebounding, an interesting stat - SA and Miami tied for 2nd worst in the NBA in offensive rebounding differential - though they both were above average in defensive rebounding differential. So, it appears that they put an emphasis on other things that perhaps hinder their offensive rebounding - or look for things in their players rather than offensive rebounding ability - like showing the ability to shoot or defend gets you more playing time.

Thinking it through, it makes sense that they have a poor offensive rebounding differential, because their opponents have more offensive rebounding opportunities. SA & Miami likely make a higher percentage of their FGA's than their opponents and get to the foul line more than their opponents.

Thanks Fisher - yes, I was a huge proponent of drafting Green.

[nate33]

Excellent prediction.

Speaking of rebounding, an interesting stat - SA and Miami tied for 2nd worst in the NBA in offensive rebounding differential - though they both were above average in defensive rebounding differential. So, it appears that they put an emphasis on other things that perhaps hinder their offensive rebounding - or look for things in their players rather than offensive rebounding ability - like showing the ability to shoot or defend gets you more playing time.

Thinking it through, it makes sense that they have a poor offensive rebounding differential, because their opponents have more offensive rebounding opportunities. SA & Miami likely make a higher percentage of their FGA's than their opponents and get to the foul line more than their opponents.

Thanks Fisher - yes, I was a huge proponent of drafting Green.

It depends if that offensive rebounding differential is based on aggregate numbers or percentages. Is it an offensive rebounding percentage differential?

[Ruzious]

Speaking of rebounding, an interesting stat - SA and Miami tied for 2nd worst in the NBA in offensive rebounding differential - though they both were above average in defensive rebounding differential. So, it appears that they put an emphasis on other things that perhaps hinder their offensive rebounding - or look for things in their players rather than offensive rebounding ability - like showing the ability to shoot or defend gets you more playing time.

Thinking it through, it makes sense that they have a poor offensive rebounding differential, because their opponents have more offensive rebounding opportunities. SA & Miami likely make a higher percentage of their FGA's than their opponents and get to the foul line more than their opponents.

Thanks Fisher - yes, I was a huge proponent of drafting Green.

It depends if that offensive rebounding differential is based on aggregate numbers or percentages. Is it an offensive rebounding percentage differential?

Just aggregate - taken from yahoo sports. Both SA and Miami gave up 3.0 more offensive rebounds per game than they got.

[fishercob]

Thinking it through, it makes sense that they have a poor offensive rebounding differential, because their opponents have more offensive rebounding opportunities. SA & Miami likely make a higher percentage of their FGA's than their opponents and get to the foul line more than their opponents.

Thanks Fisher - yes, I was a huge proponent of drafting Green.

It depends if that offensive rebounding differential is based on aggregate numbers or percentages. Is it an offensive rebounding percentage differential?

Just aggregate - taken from yahoo sports. Both SA and Miami gave up 3.0 more offensive rebounds per game than they got.

So I think the simple explanation is the one that most likely applies here -- they're not trying for offensive rebounds as much. I am guessing they think the reward of getting back and setting their defense outweighs that of sending guys to the offensive glass. Maybe part of that is also that the other components of their offense are sufficiently efficient that the benefits of attacking the offensive glass are marginal (vs getting back on D).

I mentioned this in the draft thread a couple of weeks ago; it's a trend that makes me less excited about Bennett, who seems to derive a decent chunk of his offense on the O-boards. Of course Indy beat the hell out of Miami on the O-boards, so maybe that thinking is flawed.

[tontoz]

Seems to me like the aggregate number would be a worthless stat. Strong defenses force the opponents to miss shots, thus more chances for the opponents to get offensive rebounds. Strong offenses don't miss as many shots so there are less chances at offensive rebounds.

The rebounding percentages are what matter. SA does have the 2nd worst offensive rebounding rate in the league.

[dangermouse]

Man how good is Leonard.

I think he'll be an all-star once or twice, all defensive 1st team a few times and maybe DPOY.

And to think we coulda had him. Grunnnnnnfeldddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ruzious]

Seems to me like the aggregate number would be a worthless stat. Strong defenses force the opponents to miss shots, thus more chances for the opponents to get offensive rebounds. Strong offenses don't miss as many shots so there are less chances at offensive rebounds.

Nothing to see here.

I already pointed out those factors. Whether or not there's more to it than that, I'm not good enough with stats to figure it out. But 3.0 per game sounds high, so I suspect there is more to it - such as the factors Fisher alluded to. I could be wrong.

[tontoz]

The worst teams at offensive rebounding rate are

26 Miami
Atlanta
28 Dallas
29 San Antonio
30 Boston


so it does look like there is something else going on.

[closg00]

Man how good is Leonard.

I think he'll be an all-star once or twice, all defensive 1st team a few times and maybe DPOY.

And to think we coulda had him. Grunnnnnnfeldddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We had Leonard in for pre-draft workouts, but took Vesely. We would be drafting Oladipo/Bennett, or someone else had Ernie gotten the pick right.

[pancakes3]

And Danny Green! I want to say that Ruz was on this guy in college -- before his stints in basketball purgatory. What a player he has become. He's come a long way from being Lebron's dance partner.

I remember Nate having a pretty big draft crush on him as well.

I wonder how often Pop plays that video for him and just glares at him. HA!

The bigger question is if Pops is out there youtubing his players to potentially find clips to glare at them about.

[Nivek]

Keep in mind that offensive rebounding is only one of the four factors. The most important factor is shooting from the floor by a very large margin. The other three categories (rebounding, turnovers and getting to the line) kinda trade places. This season, the order of importance (correlation with efficiency differential) with relative weight:

- efg differential -- 10
- ftm/fga differential -- 5
- turnover differential -- 3
- rebounding differential -- 2

Here's where the Heat ranked this season:

- efg differential -- 1
- rebounding differential -- 30
- turnover differential -- 9
- ftm/fga differential -- 7

And the Spurs:

- efg differential -- 3
- rebounding differential -- 26
- turnover differential -- 15
- ftm/fga differential -- 18

That "something else" that's going on is that the Heat and Spurs shoot the ball extremely well (1st and 2nd in offensive efg) and do a good job of making the other team miss.

[Nivek]

And Danny Green! I want to say that Ruz was on this guy in college -- before his stints in basketball purgatory. What a player he has become. He's come a long way from being Lebron's dance partner.

I remember Nate having a pretty big draft crush on him as well.

I wonder how often Pop plays that video for him and just glares at him. HA!

The bigger question is if Pops is out there youtubing his players to potentially find clips to glare at them about.

If YODA had been up and running back then, Green would have been a draft crush there too.

[pancakes3]

Well now I"m curious to see how Reggie Bullock stacks up in YODA because to my eye test the two stacks up very similarly - better even potentially if considering physical aspects.