Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[nuposse04]

I think a better comparison to Otto Porter may be Loul Deng. Porter is a little smoother while Deng always looked liked arms & leg flailing everywhere and has very choppy steps. Both rebound very well. Both are ultimate glue guy types who excel defensively. I think Porter is a better shooter and slightly more skilled coming out of college. Questions where abound about Deng's ability to slash at the next level (due to questionable athleticism) and he worked hard on developing that part of his game to the point he was adequate. Same with his shooting. Porter will work on his flaws and will make adjustments to his game. I don't buy that Porter is a risky pick. At minimum your getting a solid starting SF. Maybe slighly disappointing for his draft slot at worst but IMO he carries minimal risk.

I think he'll end up being a hybrid between Deng and Leonard.

They all had pretty substandard no step verticals, Deng at 27.5, Leonard 25.5 (wtf?) and Porter at 27. Porter actually had the highest max vertical so in theory he should be able to finish over guys better when he fills out. Porter's standing reach is a shade under leonards and Deng just has stupid good standing reach for a SF. Porter actually had the best lane agility score of the three as well...which I was a bit surprised about.

I see at minimum Porter being Batum. I think his peak could be a top 3 SF in the east. I'm not sure he'll ever be a 20+ ppg guy, but in todays NBA...you don't necessarily NEED that. I do think he will be capable of big games. I'd rather he be more like P. George than Melo.

[GhostsOfGil]

I've heard some people say Noel's IQ was actually fairly poor. Relying on his athleticism to make up for his poor positioning (ala Mcgee). Can anyone provide insight on this?

[Ruzious]

Stretch out Beal, and you basically have Porter. They both have a natural feel for the game - high BBIQ - those are the kind of players I enjoy watching most - moreso than athletic freaks.

[nate33]

I think Batum is Porter's maximum, not minimum. I see little reason to expect him to be much more than a quality starter, say, 10th best SF in the league. I see no star-caliber talent there. Just... competence.

[Nivek]

Stretch out Beal, and you basically have Porter. They both have a natural feel for the game - high BBIQ - those are the kind of players I enjoy watching most - moreso than athletic freaks.

Beal actually shows up as 3rd most similar to Porter. Slightly more similar are Will Barton (SO) and Jared Dudley (SO), though Porter rates better than both of them overall.

I have fewer questions about Porter than any other player in this draft.

[popper]

I think Batum is Porter's maximum, not minimum. I see little reason to expect him to be much more than a quality starter, say, 10th best SF in the league. I see no star-caliber talent there. Just... competence.

This is where I'm at as well. Batum has a pure stroke and better handles than Porter does. I agree he will be an above average SF but I'm skeptical that he will be much more than that.

[nuposse04]

I think Batum is Porter's maximum, not minimum. I see little reason to expect him to be much more than a quality starter, say, 10th best SF in the league. I see no star-caliber talent there. Just... competence.

Batum's numbers in his 07'-08 french Leman play per 40 was basically what Porter was doing. I can't comment on the difficulty level between big east and LeMan play but they're essentially the same physically with Porter being a tad longer and taller. Batum is a better facilitator now...and maybe moreso than Porter ever will be cause of Wall and Beal also sharing the load but I think Porter is a better spot up shooter relative to where Batum was early on and a comparable defender.

Porter was across the board better then Deng in almost every category and was playing a on a relatively stacked collegiate squad with JJ, Duhon and S. Williams. I don't see why Deng with better shooting and sans some of the slashing isn't realistic goal to expect out of Porter. My only concern with Porter is how much stronger can he get without sacrificing agility.

[Dat2U]

I think Batum is Porter's maximum, not minimum. I see little reason to expect him to be much more than a quality starter, say, 10th best SF in the league. I see no star-caliber talent there. Just... competence.

Funny thing is if Batum played with any fire and intensity he'd be a lot better than the 10th best SF.

And I don't know how Porter's ceiling is only 10th best. LeBron & Melo are no longer SFs for the most part. Durant is clearly the best. You'd have to consider George & Leonard in the top 5, I'd don't know why Porter couldn't be a top 5 SF either. It's not like being a top 5 SF means your an allstar.

[sfam]

I see Joe Smith "bust" possibilities with Porter. Disappointing but decent player. I don't really see him being a Thabeet or even a Kwame Brown level bust.

Honestly pretty much every player in this draft has some level of bust potential.

Joe was really small for his position. He was basically a 6-9 210 college center. I don't see Porter having the same issues as Smith did.

Porter is a 19 yr old with ideal SF size (he's long enough to play as a smallball 4) and requisite athleticism for a SF. Where exactly is the low upside? He isn't blazing quick and his handle needs polish. He also really needs to work on making shots off the dribble (his most unrefined skill). But he's got the foundation of skill there (unlike McLemore's nacent handles) so he can improve upon where's he's currently at. He's going to come in as a role player and I think he'll develop into a quality 3rd or even 2nd option in time.

I probably should have been more clear. I was just saying his floor is fairly high. He probably would end up being on about market-rate contract at the end of his rookie deal in that scenario.

Players with good length, skill and who show improvement are more likely to exceed expectations(even if they are lower) than to disappoint. Also in some ways the Wizards are playing with the house's money in this draft. If Porter ends up as the 5th or 6th best player from the draft, but fills a need - that is a pretty good outcome for being the 9th seed in the draft lotto.

This is exactly the reason I prefer Bennett. We aren't the Spurs - we can't expect good picks as far as the eye can see. If we take your reasoning, Porter represents a low risk approach toward long term success, that will be dependent on other equally good decisions over time. That's just not the Wizards. We suck as an organization, and shouldn't be planning a slow march to a title. In football terms, we are far better off throwing the long ball in the hopes of getting a touchdown strike vice running a control offense that picks up 5 yards a play on the way to a score. We will fumble or get intercepted taking that tact.

I just think we should be shooting to find potentially the best player in the draft even if there's a high bust potential, vice settling for a sure bet 6th best player.

[Dat2U]

I'm pretty locked into my top two tiers now.

No TIER ONE types. Noel, Porter & Oladipo are my clear TIER TWO guys meaning whoever is remaning out of those three is my pick at #3. Len, Olynyk & Zeller are my clear TIER THREE guys. Zeller does look a lot better as a PF that can step out and shoot.

TIER FOUR is where it gets iffy. I've dropped Burke down to this level due to my concerns regarding his athleticism at PG. Bennett is solidly in this grouping, along with McLemore, McCollum, Schroeder, Muhammad & Dieng at the moment.

After that it's really impossible for me to say. I've got guys like Canaan, Larkin & Jackson on the next tier so it really differs from the mocks.

[Dat2U]

This is exactly the reason I prefer Bennett. We aren't the Spurs - we can't expect good picks as far as the eye can see. If we take your reasoning, Porter represents a low risk approach toward long term success, that will be dependent on other equally good decisions over time. That's just not the Wizards. We suck as an organization, and shouldn't be planning a slow march to a title. In football terms, we are far better off throwing the long ball in the hopes of getting a touchdown strike vice running a control offense that picks up 5 yards a play on the way to a score. We will fumble or get intercepted taking that tact.

I just think we should be shooting to find potentially the best player in the draft even if there's a high bust potential, vice settling for a sure bet 6th best player.

I still don't understand how a high IQ do everthing 6-9 SF is playing it safe but an offensively focused and defensively challenged 6-7 PF is going for the win. Otto Porter is a sophomore, but 3 months younger. Otto won Big East POY and carried his team this year. Bennett played in the Mountain West and struggled against conference level comp. What makes Bennett such an ideal proposition when we don't even know if he's got the requisite size of the position?

I think we wrongly speak in generalities a lot of times without even paying attention to the facts.

[FreeBalling]

I never once wrote a paper that long in 8 years of college/high school.

Dang, what did you major in? My senior thesis was a meticulously researched 33 page beast.

Web development and web design. Not many papers to write in my major.

Don't sell yourself short. I got a BMIS degree with a cognate in App Dev. My C# final project had almost 4000 lines of code. You must have written something like an accounting package for a project.


Just win baby!

[GhostsOfGil]

^ Very true freeballin.

[tontoz]

When we first got the 3rd pick i felt that Porter was the obvious choice. I haven't seen anything to make me change that opinion. I think most of the board agrees.

I think the big question is what to do if Porter taken before we pick. We seem to be all over the place in that scenario.

[pcbothwel]

While i have been advocating Bennett quite a bit, i will say i have no issue with Porter and he would actually move up over Bennett in the scenario that we trade back up for a project (I.E. Adams). Porter would mitigate a lot of risk with taking a guy like Adams. I just dont see how Adams can Bust.

Serious question for the NBA historians, has there ever been a bigman with his size and athleticism who loves contact and did not succeed(Guys with serious personality disorders/drug problems should not be considered)? This is not a rhetorical question, I am really wondering.

[nate33]

I still don't understand how a high IQ do everthing 6-9 SF is playing it safe but an offensively focused and defensively challenged 6-7 PF is going for the win. Otto Porter is a sophomore, but 3 months younger. Otto won Big East POY and carried his team this year. Bennett played in the Mountain West and struggled against conference level comp. What makes Bennett such an ideal proposition when we don't even know if he's got the requisite size of the position?

I think we wrongly speak in generalities a lot of times without even paying attention to the facts.

Good stuff here, Dat2U. I'm glad you keep challenging my perceptions. I didn't realize that Porter was actually younger than Bennett.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

This is exactly the reason I prefer Bennett. We aren't the Spurs - we can't expect good picks as far as the eye can see. If we take your reasoning, Porter represents a low risk approach toward long term success, that will be dependent on other equally good decisions over time. That's just not the Wizards. We suck as an organization, and shouldn't be planning a slow march to a title. In football terms, we are far better off throwing the long ball in the hopes of getting a touchdown strike vice running a control offense that picks up 5 yards a play on the way to a score. We will fumble or get intercepted taking that tact.

I just think we should be shooting to find potentially the best player in the draft even if there's a high bust potential, vice settling for a sure bet 6th best player.

I still don't understand how a high IQ do everthing 6-9 SF is playing it safe but an offensively focused and defensively challenged 6-7 PF is going for the win. Otto Porter is a sophomore, but 3 months younger. Otto won Big East POY and carried his team this year. Bennett played in the Mountain West and struggled against conference level comp. What makes Bennett such an ideal proposition when we don't even know if he's got the requisite size of the position?

I think we wrongly speak in generalities a lot of times without even paying attention to the facts.

I think Bennett is more versatile than Porter. Bennett can play inside-out, Porter is gonna be a jump shooter. Bennett handles better and I have a hunch that he's gonna be drafted to play SF and PF in small-ball lineups, just like Melo and LBJ. Melo and LBJ only play PF because their teams lack depth at PF/C. Offensively, Bennett has better SF/PF skills than Porter...better ball handler, better athlete, and stronger. On defense though, Porter is clearly better.
Obviously, they are two great prospects, but you seem to be biased towards Porter and make it sound like Bennett is a complete dud with no skills to speak of.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Stretch out Beal, and you basically have Porter. They both have a natural feel for the game - high BBIQ - those are the kind of players I enjoy watching most - moreso than athletic freaks.

Beal actually shows up as 3rd most similar to Porter. Slightly more similar are Will Barton (SO) and Jared Dudley (SO), though Porter rates better than both of them overall.

I have fewer questions about Porter than any other player in this draft.

Barton had a very rough start but showed flashes of greatness late in the season. He's the kind of player to try and trade for when he appears to be a bust.

Porter might not fare well early on but he really is a low-risk pick.

[go'stags]

I disagree that Bennett is more skilled at SF than Otto Porter. Porter is just as good, if not better, at shooting, miles better in terms passing and understanding how to play within a team concept, and his ball handling will improve to be a strength going forward.

People say things like "Porter will struggle to create his own shot" or he will "struggle to get into the lane". If we just dump the ball into him near the elbow a la Carmelo and say "go score", then yes, he will struggle. But thats not what he is going to do. He is going to move constantly, catch the ball on the run and combine a single move with his length and get to the hoop. His stats show he knows how to draw fouls.

Once again people underestimate how helpful a sky high basketball IQ can be. Porter will not be simply a role player.

[go'stags]

Additionally, Porter will be an excellent finisher in transition, a knock down 3-point shooter, and a guy who can post up effectively. He has more of an "inside-out" game than Bennett.