Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[tontoz]

ESPN's Bradford Doolittle's "YODA"

"(Each player's prospect score (PROS) is denoted in parenthesis. Any score more than 100 denotes a deserving top-10 pick. Late first-rounders and early second-rounders -- always a gray area -- rate in the 65-75 range. Players fall off the draft board at about 50.)"

1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky (PROS: 124.2)
2. Cody Zeller, Indiana (122.3)
3. Ben McLemore, Kansas (119.5)
4. Alex Len, Maryland (118.3)
5. Anthony Bennett, UNLV (116.7)
6. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh (114.6)
7. Trey Burke, Michigan (110.1)
8. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse (107.3)
9. Otto Porter, Georgetown (107.0)
10. Victor Oladipo, Indiana (105.0)
11. C.J. McCollum, Lehigh (99.8)
12. Dennis Schroeder, Germany (98.8)
13. Sergey Karasev, Russia (96.6)
14. Jeff Withey, Kansas (90.7)
15. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville (87.3)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... ts-numbers

Seeing Len that high automatically makes me doubt this guy's "system".

A lot of GMs apparently have Len in their top 5 as well. So this guy's system might not be that far off the mark. Len is certainly a unique combo of size and athleticism. He might turn out to be fool's gold but I understand the love that Len's getting.

Len isn't in GMs' top 5 due to any statistical analysis. And he didn't even do any athletic testing at the combine. We don't even know what his measurements are.

Looks like a players actual production in college isn't given much weight.

[DCZards]

Len isn't in GMs' top 5 due to any statistical analysis. And he didn't even do any athletic testing at the combine. We don't even know what his measurements are.

Looks like a players actual production in college isn't given much weight.

GMs don't need combine numbers from Len to know that he's very athletic and very big. All they need to do is watch some Maryland game film.

[closg00]

More on Doolittle's system.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... icleid=711

[LyricalRico]

HoopsHype also saying this:

Sources say that Oladipo has moved into the Cavs' conversation for the No. 1 pick and also is under heavy consideration from the Magic at No. 2. Sounds like it would be a surprise if he goes past the Suns at No. 5.

http://hoopshype.com/rumors.htm

Not sure if they are quoting the same Insider article at nate's post above.

[Dat2U]

So what happens if Noel & Porter are on the board at #3? Who do you take?

[TGW]

So what happens if Noel & Porter are on the board at #3? Who do you take?

Gotta go with Noel. He has the highest upside of any player in the draft.

We'll have to go with Webster/Ariza (if he resigns) for a few years until we can upgrade the position. But Noel would be too hard to pass up. Kid is the next Camby.

[theboomking]

ESPN's Bradford Doolittle's "YODA"

"(Each player's prospect score (PROS) is denoted in parenthesis. Any score more than 100 denotes a deserving top-10 pick. Late first-rounders and early second-rounders -- always a gray area -- rate in the 65-75 range. Players fall off the draft board at about 50.)"

1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky (PROS: 124.2)
2. Cody Zeller, Indiana (122.3)
3. Ben McLemore, Kansas (119.5)
4. Alex Len, Maryland (118.3)
5. Anthony Bennett, UNLV (116.7)
6. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh (114.6)
7. Trey Burke, Michigan (110.1)
8. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse (107.3)
9. Otto Porter, Georgetown (107.0)
10. Victor Oladipo, Indiana (105.0)
11. C.J. McCollum, Lehigh (99.8)
12. Dennis Schroeder, Germany (98.8)
13. Sergey Karasev, Russia (96.6)
14. Jeff Withey, Kansas (90.7)
15. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville (87.3)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... ts-numbers

Interesting stuff. It looks like he is weighting physical attributes pretty heavily since Len and Adams are higher than the considerably more productive Burke and Porter.

The really puzzling part is how he has Oladipo all the way down at 10. Dipo has great numbers and great athleticism. Most stat geek systems I've seen place Oladipo in the top 5, no matter what their method is.

He probably also heavily weights age, and Oladipo is a Junior.

[nuposse04]

So what happens if Noel & Porter are on the board at #3? Who do you take?

Gotta go with Noel. He has the highest upside of any player in the draft.

We'll have to go with Webster/Ariza (if he resigns) for a few years until we can upgrade the position. But Noel would be too hard to pass up. Kid is the next Camby.

I might be the only guy on RealGM who thinks Noel can be better than Davis. He's superior athlete IMO. Not nearly the shooter yet...but he's very young.

Also...wasn't Bennett brought in for an interview yesterday? Shouldn't they have been allowed to measure him...? I mean I know one arm had surgery but the other can reach up...can't it??

[nate33]

So what happens if Noel & Porter are on the board at #3? Who do you take?

Noel, without hesitation.

The way I see it, Porter is probably only a marginal upgrade from the Webster/Ariza combo. He'll help, but not really all that much over the short and intermediate term. Noel gives us a game changing defensive force and a type of player that we don't have. Yeah, he's at least a year or two away from being an effective NBA player, but once he fills out, he's going to be good. I also think he's a nice complement to Nene and Seraphin. He can do the stuff they don't do, and they can handle the stuff Noel can't do.

[DCZards]

Love Porter's skillz and IQ...plus I'm a GU fan to the core. But I've got to go with Noel. He's got too much game-changing potential to pass on.

[TGW]

So with that being said, do we trade up for #1? I have Noel on top of my draft board, and I don't think Cleveland is going to pass him up.

[nate33]

So with that being said, do we trade up for #1? I have Noel on top of my draft board, and I don't think Cleveland is going to pass him up.

It depends on the cost. I wouldn't sacrifice too much, maybe the #38 pick. Noel has high upside potential, but there's some risk there. If Cleveland really wants him, then the price for us to move up is going to be high. If Cleveland secretly doesn't want to pick him, then they'll take small incentive just to save face.

Basically, I'm not getting into a bidding war for the #1 pick. I'm not going to try and convince Cleveland to trade down. My stance is that if they want to trade down, I'd be a willing partner, but don't expect too much in return.

[Dat2U]

Seeing how Cleveland has drafted the last 3 years, it would not surprise me if Porter or Oladipo is the pick. Also remember, this is the same franchise that took Tristan Thompson over Jonas Valanciunas because Valanciunas was staying overseas and Cleveland was unwilling to wait a year for him. So Noel not being a lock at #1 doesn't surprise me sense he wouldn't be ready to even begin practicing with the team until December or so.

[nuposse04]

So with that being said, do we trade up for #1? I have Noel on top of my draft board, and I don't think Cleveland is going to pass him up.

I'd give the 38th, and someone like singleton/Vesely who they could just let expire.

[stevemcqueen1]

There is extra pressure to get the #1 pick right. This is a year where that's going to be especially tough and there is a lot of potential for a GM to come away looking like an idiot.

I agree, we don't need to be giving up anything big to move up to #1, we're in a pretty good spot at #3.